US: House Redistricting Massachusetts

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The 8th is probably the district the Democrats want to dissolve. The question is if the minorities let them do it.

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It seems like they're 3 districts they want to avoid:

1. Anything substantially based in Worcester.
2. Anything substantially based on Plymouth/Cape cod.
3. Anything substantially based  North Essex/Middlesex County.

Hopefully the GOP sues a minority district substantially based in Boston/Chelsea which increases the likelihood of one of these 3 being created.

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The numbers weren't there in 2001 when Finneran tried it, even stretching up to Lynn to barely make 50%. Boston has gotten more ethnically diverse since then, but I can't see a lawsuit happening nor are there minority legislators willing to sign off on it, and such a Republican move would be so transparently political that it is doomed to fail.

Also, any changes could be accommodated by changing the 8th's borders with the 7th district, I think. You're not going to see Quincy leave the 10th this way because Southie still has to link with its exurbs.

Possibly. I don't think such a lawsuit would be all that useful in Massachusetts. But it would be good to know, one way or another, if section 2 requires the creation of 'coalition' districts (as Boston + Chelsea probably is, and certainly much more 'compact' than anything in the South), or if those areas can be cracked, as some are proposing to do.

If the answer is that they aren't required, that knowledge would be useful elsewhere in the country.

We're seeing this in NJ legislative redistricting, where the GOP wants to create explicit minority coalition districts and the Democrats are trying to crack them and flood the whiter suburbs.

[krazen1211]

The 8th as currently configured already is such a district. I think. It's far too small, of course.

Yes, you could gerrymander some tendrils out to Quincy, Chelsea, and Lynn to create an erose 8th district with a marginally higher minority population, and it would still likely be represented by a liberal white Democrat, so why bother?

Boston doesn't have any African-American members of the state senate since Dianne Wilkerson left.

http://boston.com/community/blogs/less_is_more/2011/04/scott_brown_on_redistricting.html


Scott Brown wants Capuano to have a district. Not that he was in any danger, anyway.

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I am shocked, shocked to find out that a Republican wants a Dem vote sink in Boston.

Well, its not like any of the surrounding seats would be competitive anyway.  i think its more like "A Republican wants one of his strongest potential challengers to not get drawn out of his seat"

Yeah, Senators normally shut up about House redistricting. I think he's motivated by numero uno rather than any generic partisan cause.

On another note, I guess we know who won't be running against Brown.

Rep. Richard Neal tells a local television station that Browns' independence is "very impressive" and gives him a "B" grade on his tenure.


http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0411/Grading_Brown.html

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Great piece on Massachusetts Congressional districts, and where the Republicans are, and how expertly they were split up. Credit is given where credit is due.


http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/379/massachusetts-congressional-vote-2010

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Boston got chopped up like Austin there. I thought some redistricting chairman was from Boston?

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Lynch and Keating.

http://www.dotnews.com/litdrop/2011/rep-lynch-v-rep-keating-2012

MORAN: I think the people who are talking that way are probably getting that from -- we have five Congressmen that sit in very powerful positions. We have a woman in Niki Tsongas; we have the Eighth Congressional District, which is the majority minority district. So if you take all those, and you consider those are the ones we have to keep, you’re left with Congressman Lynch, Congressman Keating and Congressman Tierney. And just by geography, Congressman Lynch and Congressman Keating seem to be the two that have to run against – if you use that as the principles. So that I think is where that is coming from.





Curious to leave Tsongas alone.

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Doesn't eliminating Lynch require a lot of baconmandering?

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Hmm.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2011/08/19/massachusetts_electoral_districts_being_redrawn/

Massachusetts legislators, who are in the final stages of constructing a congressional redistricting map that will force at least two of the 10 Democratic incumbents to face off next year, are focusing on several potential scenarios, including merging the seats of Stephen F. Lynch of South Boston and freshman William R. Keating of Quincy to create a new district encompassing most of Norfolk County.

That possibility would require Representative Barney Frank, a 30-year veteran of Congress, to give up his hometown of Newton for a district concentrated near New Bedford and encompassing the southeastern part of the state, said sources who are privy to the redistricting conversations taking place on Beacon Hill.




Hmm, that sounds like a Cape and Islands district. Seems to ruffle more incumbents than is  needed, though.

[krazen1211]

Hmm, that sounds like a Cape and Islands district. Seems to ruffle more incumbents than is  needed, though.

Would this mean attaching the Cape to New Bedford and expecting Barney Frank to run there? That seems like a tall order. Is this for Therese Murray to run in when he retires or something? Because the other part of it, attaching Quincy and other nearby Norfolk County towns, to the 9th does make a lot of sense from a COI point of view, as does putting Newton in with the 8th or 7th and Brookline with the 8th.

Could be. Would they be confident in Frank winning without half of Falls River (if he ditches that half to the expanding 3rd), and without Newton?

[krazen1211]

If Quincy is not a part of a Cape & Islands district, then almost certainly Brockton and New Bedford have to be. Plymouth is just getting too Republican.

Because the other part of it, attaching Quincy and other nearby Norfolk County towns, to the 9th does make a lot of sense from a COI point of view, as does putting Newton in with the 8th or 7th and Brookline with the 8th.

If they're combining Lynch and Keating, then this new district is going to be taking in some very un-Norfolk-like chunks of Boston.

Is this for Therese Murray to run in when he retires or something?

Redistricting will be very interesting so far as Therese Murray is concerned. She barely won re-election in 2010, and it's going to be hard to make that district more Democratic, since it'll need to pick up more Plymouth territory (the Cape & Islands seat needs to expand -- it lost population).

It'll be a very interesting race if Romney winds up on the ticket.

Could be. Would they be confident in Frank winning without half of Falls River (if he ditches that half to the expanding 3rd), and without Newton?

Fall River is in McGovern's district, not Frank's.

Hmph, pulling it up on DRA shows it split between the 3rd and the 4th. Is that incorrect?

[krazen1211]

http://bostonglobe.com/metro/2011/11/04/tsongas-seat-center-redistricting-standoff/ZuQZENB2TabsWX2LoXnfvJ/story.html

The city of Lawrence has become the latest battleground in the Legislature’s final push to redraw its congressional districts, with US Representative Niki Tsongas, the delegation’s only woman, fighting off a plan by state lawmakers in the House that would take the heavily Democratic community from her district and give it to Representative John F. Tierney.


Why don't they add Revere or Lexington instead of Lawrence to the 6th district?

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Here's mine. Least change map for incumbents, except the 3rd and the 10th (now 1st)







In particular the following districts are maintained

MA-2 (adds Holyoke and West Springfield)
MA-8 (adds more of Boston)
MA-7 (adds Marlborough, Southborough, Northborough, Westborough)
MA-6 (adds Lawrence)

And the following districts are mostly maintained

MA-4 (adds the Ashland to Falls River belt, drops New Bedford)
MA-5 (adds Fitchburg, Leominster, Gardner)
MA-9 (adds Quincy, Weymouth)

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Looks like a solid 9-0 map. And cleaner than the current to boot.

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Obama McCain, PVI (inflated due to Kerry)

1: 64-33, D+14
2: 61-35, D+12
3: 59-39, D+8
4: 60-37, D+11
5: 62-32, D+15
6: 56-41, D+6
7: 82-16, D+30
8: 57-41, D+8
9: 57-41, D+7

2010


1st District (Neal)
Coakley 49-49%
Patrick 51-37%

2nd District (McGovern)
Brown 54-44%
Patrick 47-43%

3rd District (Tsongas)
Brown 57-42%
Baker 48-44%

4th District (Frank vs. Keating?)
Brown 55-45%
Patrick 46-46%

5th District (Markey)
Coakley 55-44%
Patrick 54-39%

6th District (Tierney)
Brown 58-41%
Baker 50-41%

7th District (Capuano)
Coakley 73-26%
Patrick 73-23%

8th District (Lynch vs. Keating?)
Brown 55-44%
Patrick 44-43%

9th District (Open or Keating?)
Brown 57-42%
Baker 45-45%

[krazen1211]

How many of these districts would be competitive?

Numbers intentionally withheld.

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Hmph.

http://i48.tinypic.com/2wlrmva.png

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Boston white liberals try to rack and pack minorities into a single district.


In a letter to the council, which approved a redistricting plan on a 7-6 vote after months of wrangling, Menino singled out District 4 as a source “of particular concern.” In that district, which spans parts of Dorchester and Mattapan, voters of color would constitute 95 percent of the electorate.

Yancey presented a politically progressive map that would have created an incumbent-free district where either a Latino or Asian would have likely prevailed. Yancey has argued that while so-called minorities make up 53 percent of the city’s population, they represent only 26 percent of district seats on the council.




Interesting. White liberals want to claim an excess of the seats.