UK 2005- Seat by Seat Part 15 (Greater Manchester)

[Silent Hunter]

Constituency MP Name Party Prediction 
Altrincham and Sale West  Graham Brady  CON Hold
Ashton under Lyne  David Heyes  LAB Hold
Bolton North East  David Crausby  LAB Hold
Bolton South East  Brian Iddon  LAB Hold
Bolton West  Ruth Kelly  LAB Hold: She's sitting in a 6,000 majority. Labour lost 7 council seats last election (the council remains NOC). In my opinion, she's safe and her promotion could be a bonus if she's good at her job.
Bury North  David Chaytor  LAB Hold
Bury South  Ivan Lewis  LAB Hold
Cheadle  Patsy Calton  LIB Hold: This was the closest seat in the country last time around. It won't be this time.
Denton and Reddish  Andrew Bennett  LAB Hold
Eccles  Ian Stewart  LAB Hold
Hazel Grove  Andrew Stunell  LIB Hold
Heywood and Middleton  Jim Dobbin  LAB Hold
Leigh  Andrew Burnham  LAB Hold
Makerfield  Ian McCartney  LAB Hold
Manchester Blackley  Graham Stringer  LAB Hold
Manchester Central  Tony Lloyd  LAB Hold
Manchester Gorton  Gerald Kaufman  LAB Hold: The author of 'How to be a Minister' is pretty safe, and this will stay LAB even if he goes. He might end up Father of the House one day.
Manchester Withington  Keith Bradley  LAB Hold
Oldham East and Saddleworth  Phil Woolas  LIB Gain from LAB: It's only a 6% majority and this is likely to be close.
Oldham West and Royton  Michael Meacher  LAB Hold: The BNP 3rd placed here last time. They'll probably save their deposit.
Rochdale  Lorna Fitzsimons  LAB Hold
Salford  Hazel Blears  LAB Hold: This is where Coronation Street is modelled after. I don't know how their residents vote, but I'm guessing Labour. She got 65% last time.
Stalybridge and Hyde  James Purnell  LAB Hold
Stockport  Ann Coffey  LAB Hold
Stretford and Urmston  Beverley Hughes  LAB Hold: She resigned as immigration minister over a visa scandal, but she won't lose her seat. 
Wigan  Neil Turner  LAB Hold
Worsley  Terry Lewis  LAB Hold
Wythenshawe and Sale East  Paul Goggins  LAB Hold

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cheadle: Locally (this is, perversely, part of Stockport BC) this is solidly LibDem. The Tories will have a go for it, but I don't think they'll pull it off.

Makerfield: Could see one of the biggest majorities in the country here. Other than that, not worth a watch

Manchester Withington: IIRC the LibDems are "targeting" this seat. It's the more upticket part of Manchester and is traditionally Tory. At local level I think all the wards are held by the Mancs LD's.
But in Manchester local and national politics have never gone hand in hand.

Oldham East and Saddleworth: Should be an easy regain for the LibDems, but the mismanagement of Oldham council by the LibDem group (including a pathetic attempt to rig the locals this year) makes things more interesting.
Saddleworth is really in Yorkshire. It doesn't belong in this seat.
Watch out for the BNP

Oldham West and Royton: safe Labour seat, etc, etc. BNP won't do as well as last time
 
Rochdale: Liberals would dearly love to regain Smith's old fiefdom. If they play ethnic politics cynically enough they might just be able to.

Wythenshawe and Sale East: Another Manchester seat. Wythenshawe is a load of council estates at the south end of the City. Rock solid.

[English]

Agreed.

Al, Withington *used* to be traditionally Tory, not anymore. The demographics of this seat have changed beyond all recognition in the last 2 decades and it's now utterly unwinnable for the conservatives, even in a landslide.
Didsbury is now a super trendy wealthy suburb full of liberal young professionals, a group which deserted the conservatives in droves in the 1990's. Likewise Withington itself, once an affluent family area, is now an affluent area for young graduates. The families have moved out, the single 20/30 somethings moved in. Other parts of the seat such as Burnage have never sat easily with the rest of the seat and have always been heavily Labour and working class. In short, an easy win for Labour again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Agreed.

Al, Withington *used* to be traditionally Tory, not anymore. The demographics of this seat have changed beyond all recognition in the last 2 decades and it's now utterly unwinnable for the conservatives, even in a landslide.
Didsbury is now a super trendy wealthy suburb full of liberal young professionals, a group which deserted the conservatives in droves in the 1990's. Likewise Withington itself, once an affluent family area, is now an affluent area for young graduates. The families have moved out, the single 20/30 somethings moved in. Other parts of the seat such as Burnage have never sat easily with the rest of the seat and have always been heavily Labour and working class. In short, an easy win for Labour again.

It's amazing how quickly some places change

[English]

Both Manchester and Liverpool have changed beyond recognition politically over the past 30-40 years. To think the Tories often used to win seats in Liverpool as recently as the 1970's!! Seems incredible nowadays doesn't it? Manchester Blackley was also a marginal!!!
Bizzare!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both Manchester and Liverpool have changed beyond recognition politically over the past 30-40 years. To think the Tories often used to win seats in Liverpool as recently as the 1970's!! Seems incredible nowadays doesn't it? Manchester Blackley was also a marginal!!!
Bizzare!

The end of sectarianism in Liverpool killed the Tories there... hell as recently as the '60's North Liverpool had two Tory M.P's...

[minionofmidas]

As recently as 1929 Liverpool had an Irish Nationalist MP.
Re Oldham: East and Saddleworth would likely have been an LD gain in 2001 but for the riots (which were actually in the Western, safe Labour, poor part of Oldham, but you know how mental people are...) The kind of former Labour voters that the LD needed to swing it voted BNP instead as a result.

[Silent Hunter]

Updated.

[Ben.]

If the LD target Oldham East then they’ll throw resources at Rochdale too and starting with a strong local base could easily take that adjacent seat as well… personally I think both will be targeted and both will go to the LDs.   

[Silent Hunter]

Further updated.

[Ben.]

I would have put Cheadle as a Conservative gain the same with Norfolk North and Torridge and Devon North... but that’s just me.

I'm beginning to think that the LDs are going to get about six seats each from both Labour and the Conservatives but are going to lose Brent and Leicester to Labour (on Brent I'm not certain) and the seats i mention above along with Shrewsbury and Atcham to the Conservatives so they'll be lucky to get over 60 seats IMHO.