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big bad fab
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« Reply #100 on: March 14, 2011, 08:12:10 am »
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CSA for La Dépêche du Midi, 9-10 March, sample: 853

No other detail for the moment than the "big 3".

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22

So, Panzergirl is always on the second round.
And only DSK qualifies.

Unfortunately, no sociological data, but, at least, the details of 1st rounds:

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22
Bayrou 5 / 6 / 7 / 8
Villepin 4 / 6 / 6 / 7
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Joly 4 / 3 / 6 / 5
Mélenchon 6 / 5 / 5 / 5
Besancenot 8 / 8 / 8 / 8
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

Well, in line with IFOP for the big 3, but not for some smaller candidates.
Joly is low, Besancenot is, again, high (sigh...).
Mélenchon, Bayrou and Villepin are more in the general trend.

Villepin numbers (combined with Sarkozy's) show again how DSK steals votes directly from the right (and from Joly and Bayrou, of course), without losing almost any point to the "left of the left".

What will be interesting now:
1. How cantonales results will impact on Panzergirl:
- whether the FN remains without any elected candidate and it's seen as a failure in the "momentum" or its "victimization" and "anti-establishment" line is revived,
or if the FN has some elected candidates or forces PS and UMP in a mess over "republican front" themes in the second round

2. How cantonales results will impact on Aubry and Hollande, boosting only one of them (Hollande benefiting from a Royal-like effect, as after 2004 regionales; Aubry being seen as the builder behind another 4 or 5 departments conquered) or boosting both of them and hence neutralizing any effect, relative to DSK

3. How Fukushima and other nuclear sites in Japan will affect Green support; TBH, Joly isn't heard on this (as on anything), but take a look at Hulot: when he'll be in the race, he'll have medias for him; his rise may well affect any socialist candidate; but I think he will grasp votes more on weak candidates rather than on DSK strong position;
of course, this is my guess, you can say exactly the opposite, considering DSK has a more centrist position and Hulot may well be a substitute for centre-right voters, fed up with Sarkozy, having currently their small "lovefest" with DSK and ready to go towards Hulot, the "ideal son-in-law"

3b. In case of Hulot's designation by Greens, how will Borloo's "dance" will impact on its candidature; probably not much, given Borloo's utter failure in polls for the moment. Anyway, it can only be positive for DSK, as Borloo may now weaken Sarkozy a little bit more and would minimize Hulot's bubble

4. How socialist project will affect socialist candidates; I really think that what is supposed to support Aubry will kill her;
any political plan nowadays is seen as unreadable, uninteresting, unrealistic, etc.
If DSK has survived his silence so far, his Paris journey, Panzergirl's rise, attacks from the "left of the left", so-called Green rise, he'll be able to survive Aubry's small moves.
Aubry is probably positioning herself for Matignon.

I really think 2011 will be far more interesting than 2012 Wink.
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« Reply #101 on: March 14, 2011, 08:16:26 am »
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Besancenot at 8% ? I fail to see how this is possible.
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« Reply #102 on: March 14, 2011, 04:31:03 pm »
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The PS has to keep on this double negative momentum for Sarkozy, who is eaten from the right and from the centre and the centre-right.
Whatever he says or does, he loses on the far-right or on the centre-right. This is avicious circle only DSK is able to feed.

I agree with the general idea but I fail to see why only DSK would be able to benefit from this phenomenon since it's seems to be a structural trend since 2007. Sarkozy was elected despite losing some centre and centre-right voters just because his successful offensive againt Le Pen more than made up for these losses. But since then, the shift of the centrist voters towards the left has continued (Bayrou has been utterly unable to keep them, and a majority of them voted for EELV in 2009 and 2010) and the revival of the FN, which was pretty clear during the régionales elections is now self-evident...

It puts Sarkozy and his majority under pressure on two fronts, and their reaction since last summer, marked by a radicalization of the UMP's view on immigration and crime was an evidence they quickly understood the danger. But it's a lose-lose situation since it is incompatible with regaigning the centrist electorate, which is leaning strongly towards the left on these cultural issues.

Basically, I'm pretty sure Sarkozy will lose badly in 2012 (very badly if he moves to the centre since he will have to compete against the socialist candidate, probably less badly if he continues this far right drift and is qualified for the runoff), and I fail to see how he could have avoided this situation since it was written on his 2007 electoral strategy.
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« Reply #103 on: March 14, 2011, 05:03:31 pm »
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- Because DSK is moderate enough to grasp directly centre-right voters, "real" former UDF (don't make a confusion with Bayrou and the MoDem: they weren't and aren't the real UDF).

These centre-right voters voted for Sarkozy in 2007. Not all of them but a big slice.
Now, they have entirely fled Sarkozy.

These voters, Aubry (Mrs. "35 hours") or Royal (Mrs. Madness) are unable to appeal to them.

Hollande may be able to, one day, but he has a bad image among them because of his long tenure as "chief apparatchik" of the PS. And he is obliged not to go too far on the right, like DSK or Valls, because his only chance is to gather the centre and the left of the PS, in case he is alone against DSK.

- In 2007, that was Sarkozy who put the pressure on 2 fronts: reformism, "values" for the centre-right, security and "labour" for the popular vote and the extreme-right.

Now, he is the one under pressure from both fronts.

He should have dropped his 2007 strategy in ... 2009, when FN results showed it wasn't dead. It's indeed too late now.
Sarkozy should pray Aubry is the socialist candidate, he pushes her towards the left by taking a European stance and letting Panzergirl gain on the right, to hope making it to the 2nd round against Marine Le Pen... Tongue
A bit dangerous... Grin
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« Reply #104 on: March 14, 2011, 05:44:50 pm »
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Wow, I'm really sorry people. I wanted to say xenophobic, not homophobic haha....
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« Reply #105 on: March 15, 2011, 12:23:11 pm »
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- Because DSK is moderate enough to grasp directly centre-right voters, "real" former UDF (don't make a confusion with Bayrou and the MoDem: they weren't and aren't the real UDF).

These centre-right voters voted for Sarkozy in 2007. Not all of them but a big slice.
Now, they have entirely fled Sarkozy.

Well, if you're talking about the parties I can’t more agree with you but concerning the voters, if you have a look at the election results, I fail to see were the MoDem and even some Green voters come from if not from the right.

And no matter of the socialist candidate (Ségolène is certainly a little bit different...), I just can't imagine the centre and centre-right voters choosing Sarkozy in the same proportion than in 2007 since he moves so far on the right, and I think those FN voters who voted for him in the first round will not be fooled two times in a row since Sarkozy is politically unable to deliver the Nazi policies they want.
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« Reply #106 on: March 15, 2011, 04:38:42 pm »
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2007 MoDem voters were a bit from the UDF, a bit from the centre-left ("moving" voters between Greens, PRG, PS), a big bit from the abstention and a small bit from... Le Pen (the anti-establishement theme was also one of Bayrou in 2007).

As for REAL centre-right voters (traditional Giscard, Barre, Balladur voters), they weren't disgusted by Sarkozy in 2007. But, now, I agree with you, they are.
And many of them are ready to vote for DSK as soon as in the 1st round.

I was just imagining that Sarkozy could have tried to rally them, because popular voters he stole from the FN in 2007 won't vote for him, I agree.
Of course, it's now too late for Sarkozy to try to solidify the centre-right, while considering the far right is already lost...
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« Reply #107 on: March 15, 2011, 06:08:12 pm »
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Viavoice poll for Liberation (10-12 March, sample 1007)

Wishes of victory:
DSK 46
Hollande 27
Aubry 27
Fillon 26
Sarkozy 22
Villepin 21 (ugh)
Le Pen 19 (this is a very interesting result: she is at her maximum here)

Forecasts of victory:
DSK 67
Sarkozy 41 (he must find a clue... there is something here... not so bad)
Aubry 33
Le Pen 30 (LOL)
Fillon 29
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« Reply #108 on: March 16, 2011, 03:24:02 am »
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IPSOS for Le Monde & Europe 1 (14 March, sample 948)

Remember this was the best pollster in 2007 (and since then), with a slight Sarkozy advantage (but Pierre Giacometti joined him soon after 2007 Grin): maybe it's now completely neutral...

Very bad results for Sarkozy, whose fall seems to be unstoppable. He is at "chiraquian" levels, now !

DSK 33 / Aubry 23 / Hollande 23 / Royal 17
Le Pen 19 / 21 / 21 / 21
Sarkozy 18 / 21 / 21 / 21
Bayrou 5 / 8 / 8 / 10
Joly 5 / 5 / 5 / 7
Besancenot 6 / 6 / 7 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 2 / 2 / 2 / 2
Villepin 5 / 7 / 6 / 7
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

Again, DSK is the only one to grasp votes from Sarkozy, Villepin and Bayrou in a significant way.
This is his strength.

Of course, this may be his weakness once he is candidate, as he will be seen as another traditional socialist and so will lose part of his lead.
But if he is accepted as the main candidate before his fall in polls, it's OK for him inside the party: he will have put aside Aubry, who has no specific personal advantage Wink.

Therefore Hollande doesn't want to drop. He has a chance of being almost on a par with DSK in polls after July and of being more acceptable to leftists who will vote in the primary election.

And, of course, Royal is out Cheesy.

Oh, another interesting data: "can your choice change ?"
With DSK: no 56 yes 44
Aubry: no 50 yes 50
Hollande: no 49 yes 51
Royal no 47 yes 53
Of course, you can say one thing and its opposite for each result (when it's DSK, the others are so low that their "voters" are sure of them... or when it's Royal, she is low but can in fact gain many other votes... but still)
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« Reply #109 on: March 16, 2011, 03:30:03 am »
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I suggest DSK pick TAIO Cruz & Kylie Minogue's "song", HIGHER, as an official hymn:
it could give him a dancing and young image Wink Tongue
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« Reply #110 on: March 16, 2011, 08:41:28 am »
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I don't want to put IPSOS poll on the previous page already: it's the important one today.

But, still, a BVA poll for Le Nouvel Observateur (to be published tomorrow) (11-12 March, sample 975) on the preferred candidate for the right:

Among French voters, Fillon has 50%, against 22% for Sarkozy and 28% without opinion.
Among rightist voters, Fillon has 53%, against 47% for Sarkozy.
Among UMP voters, Fillon has 45%, against 55% for Sarkozy.

Among French voters, Juppé has 48%, against 25% for Sarkozy and 27% without opinion.
Among rightist voters, Juppé has 48%, against 52% for Sarkozy.
Among UMP voters, Juppé has 43%, against 57% for Sarkozy.

(for this last number, I even think many UMPers doubt Juppé's chances even more than Sarkozy's ones; otherwise, Juppé would be up)

Something is broken for Sarkozy on the right.
He has probably a way to come back, but hasn't found it yet.

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« Reply #111 on: March 16, 2011, 04:21:08 pm »
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DSK 33 / Aubry 23 / Hollande 23 / Royal 17
Le Pen 19 / 21 / 21 / 21
Sarkozy 18 / 21 / 21 / 21
Bayrou 5 / 8 / 8 / 10
Joly 5 / 5 / 5 / 7
Besancenot 6 / 6 / 7 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 2 / 2 / 2 / 2
Villepin 5 / 7 / 6 / 7
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

Wow, the PS candidates (except the Mad One) lead the 1st round. Smiley

I of course don't wish it happens, but I couldn't restrain some satisfaction if we see a reversal of 2002 with Sarkozy out. An eye for an eye. Grin
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big bad fab
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« Reply #112 on: March 16, 2011, 05:09:16 pm »
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Retaliation is a sin Wink.
Honestly, only DSK is safe. So, it's threatening for everybody.

Really, Panzergirl peaks far too early. There will be a backlash.
Let's hope it won't be a backlash and then a comeback for her just in time for the 22nd April of 2012 Tongue.
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« Reply #113 on: March 17, 2011, 08:07:39 am »
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Retaliation is a sin Wink.

See, life is much easier when you aren't a christian. Grin

But anyways that's by no way what I wish, don't take me wrong. Le Pen doesn't deserve half of his father's 1974 score.
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« Reply #114 on: March 17, 2011, 08:51:35 pm »
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Retaliation is a sin Wink.

See, life is much easier when you aren't a christian. Grin

But the afterlife is not.
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« Reply #115 on: March 19, 2011, 07:50:13 pm »
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If Le Pen manages to make it to the second round, would she be able to improve upon her father's result in 2002?
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« Reply #116 on: March 20, 2011, 03:39:09 am »
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Almost certainly, yeah. Actually, she is likely to break his father's record whether or not she is actually qualified, mostly due to less vote split.
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« Reply #117 on: March 20, 2011, 04:24:45 pm »
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oh my god, Brice teinturier, the (ex) sofres guy, is now at.. ipsos !
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

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« Reply #118 on: March 20, 2011, 04:37:32 pm »
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Retaliation is a sin Wink.

See, life is much easier when you aren't a christian. Grin

But the afterlife is not.
The afterlife is much easier when it doesn't exist.
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« Reply #119 on: March 28, 2011, 03:52:30 am »
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IPSOS poll for France Télévisions, 25-26 March, sample 965

DSK / Aubry / Hollande / Royal
34 / 25 / 23 / 17
Sarkozy
17 / 20 / 21 / 20
Marion "Marine" Le Pen
21 / 22 / 22 / 22

Villepin
5 / 8 / 8 / 9
Morin
1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan
1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Bayrou
5 / 7 / 7 / 8
Joly
5 / 5 / 5 / 7
Mélenchon
4 / 4 / 5 / 6
Besancenot
6 / 6 / 6 / 7
Arthaud
1 / 1 / 1 / 2

Disappointing for Mélenchon and for... Sarkozy, which isn't beaten only in one case: with Royal as PS candidate...

Compared with the previous poll from IPSOS, it is confirmed that Panzergirl wins voters both from Sarkozy and from the far-left.

Again, DSK is strong, because he doesn't lose points to the far-left or to the Greens, but is able to steal votes from centre, centre-right and right.
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« Reply #120 on: March 28, 2011, 01:17:14 pm »
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So yeah, that's it. Either DSK or it's a coin toss for the PS. On other circumstances a gamble could have been possible, but not after 5 years of Sarkozy. So my choice is made.
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« Reply #121 on: March 29, 2011, 01:06:23 pm »
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A BVA poll, very close to IPSOS for the first 3, but with other candidates tested

(25-26 March, for L'Express and France Inter, 826 RV among a total sample of 982)

DSK / Aubry 29 / 24
Sarkozy 17 / 19
Le Pen 19 / 20
Villepin 6 / 7
Borloo 5 / 6
Bayrou 4 / 5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Hulot 7 / 8
Mélenchon 4 / 4
Besancenot 7 / 6
Arthaud 1 / 0.5

Of course, there is Borloo AND Villepin, which is probably bad for Sarkozy.
And this proves also that, without Villepin and with Borloo, Sarkozy would be able to qualify (just) AND hurt a little bit the Socialist candidate and Bayrou.

Borloo seems to be bad also for DSK.

Hulot is about 2 points above Joly.
Mélenchon is really down. Besancenot still stupidly high.

Poor Hollande, he is not tested (I don't even speak of Royal).

I'm looking forward hypothesis with Fillon and... Juppé, that would be fun.

But, of course, leftist medias wouldn't be interested if they polled better than Sarkozy Wink.
And rightist medias would be afraid of Sarkozy's anger Wink.
True, the only poll which tested Fillon and Copé was very bad for these ones, but it was some months ago.... A century ago... Tongue
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« Reply #122 on: April 04, 2011, 02:18:15 am »
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IFOP poll for France-Soir, 31 March-1 April
sample 577 left voters and 247 socialist voters, among a total sample of 1016

(with results from previous polls of 10-11 February and 24-25 February)

among left voters:
DSK 43 / 40 / 37
Hollande 11 / 15 / 22
Aubry 24 / 17 / 18
Royal 12 / 17 / 12
Montebourg 3 / 4 / 5
Valls 4 / 4 / 3

among socialist voters:
DSK 46 / 49 / 41
Hollande 11 / 15 / 25
Aubry 22 / 15 / 15
Royal 14 / 19 / 9
Montebourg 3 / - / 6
Valls 2 / 2 / 3

Of course, Hollande's surge is the big story. Aubry is really low, especially among socialist voters. The only interesting result for her is that, no surprisingly, Hollande and DSK are strong among the same constituencies: upper classes, old people.
But Hollande is stronger among Mélenchon and communist voters: this is why he is a very good momentum: he may be able to kill Aubry first and then would be supported by all the left against the "horrible liberal capitalist" DSK (by default).

(and when Royal will be below Montebourg ? LOL !)

Of course, the sample are tiny, but socialist leaders (and voters) have no other reference...
And what is important is the trend, not the absolute result.



Harris Interactive for Le Parisien, 29-31 March
sample of 594 right voters (no other precision)


Do you support a candidacy from this guy ?

among right voters:
Fillon 57
Sarkozy 54
Juppé 41
Borloo 33
Villepin 29
Copé 22
Bertrand 15 (Huh who has decided to include him ?)
Morin 15
Dupont-Aignan 12

among UMP voters:
Sarkozy 78
Fillon 70
Juppé 47
(no other number available for the moment)

Le Parisien says Sarkozy is unavoidable: well, given the fact that we are only in April, Fillon and even Juppé (but he is too low among young voters to hope big) aren't so badly positioned.
Borloo is more disappointing given (and despite) his cool media image.
Villepin has his best result among 18-35 years old right voters (and Dupont-Aignan too): Roll Eyes
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« Reply #123 on: April 04, 2011, 01:09:28 pm »
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IFOP poll for France-Soir, 31 March-1 April
sample 577 left voters and 247 socialist voters, among a total sample of 1016

(with results from previous polls of 10-11 February and 24-25 February)

among left voters:
DSK 43 / 40 / 37
Hollande 11 / 15 / 22
Aubry 24 / 17 / 18
Royal 12 / 17 / 12
Montebourg 3 / 4 / 5
Valls 4 / 4 / 3

among socialist voters:
DSK 46 / 49 / 41
Hollande 11 / 15 / 25
Aubry 22 / 15 / 15
Royal 14 / 19 / 9
Montebourg 3 / - / 6
Valls 2 / 2 / 3

Of course, Hollande's surge is the big story. Aubry is really low, especially among socialist voters. The only interesting result for her is that, no surprisingly, Hollande and DSK are strong among the same constituencies: upper classes, old people.
But Hollande is stronger among Mélenchon and communist voters: this is why he is a very good momentum: he may be able to kill Aubry first and then would be supported by all the left against the "horrible liberal capitalist" DSK (by default).

(and when Royal will be below Montebourg ? LOL !)

Of course, the sample are tiny, but socialist leaders (and voters) have no other reference...
And what is important is the trend, not the absolute result.



Harris Interactive for Le Parisien, 29-31 March
sample of 594 right voters (no other precision)


Do you support a candidacy from this guy ?

among right voters:
Fillon 57
Sarkozy 54
Juppé 41
Borloo 33
Villepin 29
Copé 22
Bertrand 15 (Huh who has decided to include him ?)
Morin 15
Dupont-Aignan 12

among UMP voters:
Sarkozy 78
Fillon 70
Juppé 47
(no other number available for the moment)

Le Parisien says Sarkozy is unavoidable: well, given the fact that we are only in April, Fillon and even Juppé (but he is too low among young voters to hope big) aren't so badly positioned.
Borloo is more disappointing given (and despite) his cool media image.
Villepin has his best result among 18-35 years old right voters (and Dupont-Aignan too): Roll Eyes

Holland is a decent guy. Not very charismatic but competent
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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« Reply #124 on: April 04, 2011, 01:20:06 pm »
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PS
Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16.

Wait, so you have to pay to vote in the primary? That seems kind of... unsocialist.
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BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
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