France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

IPSOS polls for Le Monde, Radio France and France Télévisions, 13-14 May and 18 May 2011, samples 948 and 1014

Well, 2 polls in 1, probably because they didn't publish the first one quickly enough and DSK was too fast for them...

before / after DSK affair:

Arthaud 2 / 2
NPA candidate 1 / 0.5
Mélenchon 6 / 4
Hollande 26 / 29
Hulot 11 / 11
Bayrou 5 / 5
Borloo 8 / 9
Villepin 4 / 3
Sarkozy 19 / 19
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Le Pen 17 / 17

Arthaud 2 / 1
NPA candidate 1 / 0.5
Mélenchon 5 / 4
Aubry 25 / 27
Hulot 9 / 11
Bayrou 6 / 5
Borloo 9 / 9
Villepin 5 / 4
Sarkozy 19 / 21
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Le Pen 18 / 17

Arthaud 2 / 2
NPA candidate 1 / 0.5
Mélenchon 8 / 6
Royal 16 / 16
Hulot 12 / 13
Bayrou 7 / 7
Borloo 11 / 12
Villepin 6 / 6
Sarkozy 19 / 19
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Le Pen 17 / 18

So...
this put Royal definitiely out, as leftist voters will decide FIRST on the ability to beat Sarkozy: she is unable to make to the second round.
What is interesting in this hypothesis is that both Hulot and Borloo are dangerous for the socialists.

More seriously, with Hollande and Aubry, things seem to be more classical: right-left fight with something as a "vote utile" here, after DSK affair, especially on the left.
It's clear some people fear that Panzergirl may benefit from DSK affair.

Marion "Marine" Le Pen is still very high and Sarkozy hasn't got rid of her. He is above 20% only against Aubry.

This remains his big problem: he has to play the first round on the right, but the second round will be fought on the centre, as Hulot's and Borloo's good results show it.

Please note that IPSOS is now headed by Teinturier, who was in SOFRES for 2007 elections. So, the same little biases are now noticeable in this poll: a rather better result for the socialist candidate, a rather worse result for the FN.
But the trend between the 2 polls is very interesting of course.

And there is the little surprise, which remains one: some medias have said that these polls showed a... victory of Sarkozy in the second round !!!

Until now, I have only found results from the first round. Maybe they want to have twice more publicity for their poll, so they publish it in 2 parts...
To be continued...

[big bad fab]

I don't know if the forum as a whole is just apathetic on this issue or if I'm really the first one to read this news.
Usually I'm not the first to report breaking announcements like this, on a European politician no less, so I find the lack of an existing discussion frightening.

Maybe because it has its place in International General Discussion board: it's about IMF, not about French politics.
Don't forget the title of this thread ...

My posts on polls and political situation are so isolated...

[big bad fab]

I think that many medias (Le Nouvel Obs, Le Point, 20 Minutes,...), this morning, have misread the titles of cables or of the poll itself:
"Sarkozy qualifié pour le 2e tour", "Sarkozy makes it to the second round" in every case
and they have read "Sarkozy winner in the second round".

For the moment, I have no other explanation than stupidity.

Unfortunately, in this sort of cases, it's often the only explanation...

So, don't be too afraid, Antonio, all is well for the left .

As for me, I'll be glad enough to read that Le Nouvel Obs seems to be more "hollandais" than "aubryste".
I hope Libération won't be too much behind Aubry.

(Le Figaro has just written on Fabius: "well tried, my lords", but nobody will believe them that there is a chance he declares a candidacy too bad ! )

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for le Journal du Dimanche, 17-18 May 2011, sample 951

Who would be a "good candidate" for the PS ?

among the whole sample / among the leftists / among the socialists

Hollande 57 / 76 / 80
Aubry 47 / 76 / 81
Delanoë 36 / 57 / 59
Fabius 28 / 39 / 39
Valls 25 / 34 / 40
Royal 23 / 42 / 45
Montebourg 20 / 37 / 37
Moscovici 20 / 32 / 38
Hamon 19 / 33 / 35

A "bad candidate" ?

Hollande 30 / 20 / 16
Aubry 40 / 19 / 15
Delanoë 47 / 35 / 33
Fabius 56 / 53 / 54
Valls 45 / 44 / 43
Royal 65 / 54 / 50
Montebourg 52 / 43 / 46
Moscovici 50 / 45 / 43
Hamon 53 / 46 / 47

Of course, this type of poll is partly stupid as most people who answer aren't even able to think outside the distinction between real candidates (Hollande, Aubry, Valls, Montebourg) and only possible ones (Delanoë, Fabius, Moscovici).

Please note how Fabius and even more Royal are rejected (Palin syndrome, sort of ).

Delanoë is confirmed as the only one who could enter the race with good prospects.
I think he might declare if Aubry isn't able to rise a bit in polls against Hollande.

Of course, Aubry isn't far behind Hollande inside the left in terms of favorability.
But her problem is that Hollande is clearly seen as being far more likely to win (see the 3 other polls on primaries since the last week-end).

[big bad fab]

Of course the fact the possibility of consensual sex as his defense is evoked (though so far it's only a rumour and we shouldn't be too quick) seems to make his guiltiness far more likely. It might very well be true however.

The woman that provided call-girls to Spitzer said she provided some also to DSK... Another tabloid, though

And Le Point said his last word before having been arrested in the plane was "quel beau c.l!" about a female steward ("what a beautiful a.s !").

There, here we are, our medias are now officially americanized.

[big bad fab]

Back to business, the only interesting one here

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 15-16 May 2011, sample 802
on socialist primaries

Let's be careful, the sample is tiny, but still, the gap is huge:

among the socialists / among the whole left
Hollande 49 / 37
Aubry 23 / 22
Royal 10 / 14
Montebourg 1 / 4
Valls 3 / 2
nobe of them 14 / 21

Considering the socialists are the most likely to vote, this is good for Hollande.
Let's hope Royal will mess some things around, forcing Aubry to deal with lil' quarrels inside the party and Hollande will be safe.

(great news ! )

Guys, there was also an hypothesis with DSK !!! They were a bit ashamed of it and the maelstrom brought everything with it...

Hollande 38 / 30
DSK 27 / 27
Aubry 19 / 19
Royal 8 / 12
Montebourg 1 / 3
Valls 3 / 2
none 3 / 6
don't know 1 / 1

So, even before the Affair, Hollande was above DSK (and Aubry) !!!

Amazing, even if it's Harris Interactive....

Well, I better understand why all the apparatchiki who smell the old SFIO (Emmanuelli, Bartolone, Cohen, Lamy, Désir,...) are so eager to see Aubry declaring her candidacy... There is really something pushing Hollande !

In a way, the Affair has prevented a BIG title in favour of Hollande: imagine this !!! Hollande above DSK !!!

A pity, really....

[big bad fab]

OMG... Well, this gives us another possible theory : that a partisan of left unity who had know about the poll before anyone else became afraid of tough primaries between DSK and Hollande, and decided to "eliminate" the runner-up in order to ensure an easy win for Hollande.
Or a supporter of Martine Aubry who wanted to give her a better chance to win.

And now Aubrysts and Cambadélis are trying to force the idea of dropping the primary and deciding ina "consensus" who is candidate...
Like when Aubry "democratically" won the first secretariat, eh ?...

Are they mad ? Or are they really thieves and specialists of shenanigans ?
I mean, let's keep on like this, after having shouted everywhere the UMP is a dictatorial party and primaries were the ultimate democratic process...

Anyway, another poll which is bad for Delanoë and good for Hollande:

TNS-SOFRES poll for Canal +, 17-18 May 2011, sample 962

Who has the best chances to win the presidential election ?

among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 38 / 49
Aubry 18 / 22
Royal 8 / 9
Fabius 5 / 4
Delanoë 3 / 3
Valls 1 / 0
Montebourg 1 / 1
none 16 / 8
don'tknow 10 / 4

These are the "first" answers, because each person polled was able to give more than one answer.
With the total of references:
Hollande 56 / 71
Aubry 44 / 61
Royal 14 / 15
Fabius 12 / 9
Delanoë 7 / 9
Valls 4 / 3
Montebourg 3 / 2
none 16 / 8
don't know 10 / 4

Well, of course, the first series of numbers is the most important one, but the second series revel shat Aubry isn't rejected at all: she is just a far second...

And SOFRES has asked the good question, I think, because voters in the primaries will take into account the electability before any other criterion.

If the apparatchiki (sorry, I don't know how to call them otherwise, as this is so adequate... when you see what Bartolone, Emmanuelli, Hamon, Cambadélis, Désir, Assouline, Lamy, Lebranchu, etc. are able to say and do...) don't steal the vote, well, Hollande is clearly, for the moment, the favourite.

I still think Delanoë could be a more threatening contender for Hollande than Aubry. We'll see.

It's really enjoyable , whatever the result.

[big bad fab]

You know I've no sympathy for Hollande, but cancelling the primaries would be a catastrophe and would head the PS to an epic failure. I don't know how much credit to give to these rumours, though. The PS is a losing machine, we know that, but they should be really demented to do that now.

Unfortunately (oh, I should say "fortunately" if I'd react like an UMP-hack ), that's not rumours.
Cambadélis and Valls are slightly less extreme than Patriat or Bartolone: the former want only "suspension" while the latter want a complete stop.

[big bad fab]

Aubry on France 2 a couple of minutes ago. So yeah, looks like she will be a candidate. She can win IMO, she certainly will have a strong appeal as the "normal" candidate and the non-egocentric one. But she'll have to start campaigning really.

Why could she win NOW ?
She has said nothing really different from Hollande, even stealing his "normal" word.
2 things can help her: she is a woman and medias can be fond of a female president; if the primaries are essentially a socialist affair, all the apparatus being behind her may give her an advantage.
At the same time, Hollande is stronger than her in polls, and even stronger among leftists or socialists.
And he has a good asset: he is undoubtedly a stronger contender for Sarkozy than Aubry. Just imagine her in face of Sarkozy between the 2 rounds... Even Royal wasn't good...

Well, it's of course still open and Hollande hasn't won yet, far from it.
But if she wins, that'll be by default, in a way, with DSK and Fabius unvoluntarily out, Delanoë voluntarily and stupidly out, Hollande being disadvantaged by a DSK... ousted too early !

At least, it's really interesting .

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for La Lettre de l'Opinion, 17-19 May 2011, 1897 RVs out of a whole sample of 2025

Hollande 26 / Aubry 24
Sarkozy 22.5 / 22.5
Le Pen 21 / 21.5
Borloo 6.5 / 7
Hulot 6 / 6
Bayrou 5 / 5.5
Mélenchon 6 / 6.5
Villepin 3.5 / 3.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Chevènement 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1

Le Pen still high, but Sarkozy slightly on the rise.
Hollande still a bit better than Aubry.

Polsters are really very different ont he great central scene, though Borloo seems to be a bit better than Bayrou and Hulot.
The arrivals are alxays in different order...
Except for Villepin who is constantly down.
Mélenchon is a bit better here.

The complete results aren't available yet.
But we already see that Hollande is better placed among older people: 28 against 25 for Aubry among the 35 years old and more; 21 against 22 among the less than 35.
A very tiny difference but again a small good point for Hollande as younger people are less likely to vote.

We'll see how the nearing declaration of candidacy by Aubry changes all this.
If she has a big media coverage, maybe the leftist voters will change their mind as, clearly, the only point that counts is "who is better placed to beat Sarkozy ?"

And Hollande may now have difficulties to propose something new, after his normality stance against Sarkozy (and DSK) and his underdog's momentum against big DSK.

Last but not least, this poll has received little coverage, whereas it has a big sample...
Maybe "poor" political journalists are tired after one amazing week...
Stupid French medias...

[big bad fab]

2007 Bayrou voters look that are going now for Borloo, Villepin (who votes Villepin not voted Sarkozy in 2007) and Marine.

Also for Hulot.

As for Villepin and Borloo, some former Sarkozy voters are supporting them (yes, even Villepin), but centre-right voters who are so upset with Sarkozy that they are able to vote for some sort of socialist in the second round (DSK and then Hollande).
There is really a split inside the right here.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #3 - 23 May 2011

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement.

I've said that I'd keep 3 trackers with DSK, Aubry and Hollande, until the scene is clearer.
The scene is now clearer .
My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is again changed, with no longer DSK in it: 0.0 instead of 0.1 DSK, 0.6 instead of 0.5 Hollande and still 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and will lose a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...


23 May Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,89   
NPA      1,49   
Mélenchon   5,16   
Chevènement   0,55   
Aubry      23,84   
Hulot      7,91   
Bayrou      5,89   
Borloo      8,48   
Villepin      4,09   
Sarkozy      21,23   
Dupont-Aignan   1,06
Le Pen      19,40   


23 May Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud      1,02
NPA      1,46
Mélenchon   5,12
Chevènement   0,66
Hollande      24,78
Hulot      8,13
Bayrou      5,62
Borloo      7,78
Villepin      3,83
Sarkozy      20,81
Dupont-Aignan   0,99
Le Pen      19,79


23 May generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,97
NPA      1,47
Mélenchon   5,14
Chevènement   0,61
PS      24,41
Hulot      8,04
Bayrou      5,73
Borloo      8,06
Villepin      3,94
Sarkozy      20,98
Dupont-Aignan   1,02
Le Pen      19,63

Sarkozy still on the rise but not far above Le Pen.
NPA candidate is gradually fading away.
Things are more levelled in the centre ground and a bit down, especially for Borloo and Hulot whose momentums seem to have stopped.

The aggregate PS candidate is of course lower, with DSK being ousted now, but the numbers are better for Hollande and Aubry this week with a seemingly "vote utile" after the DSK affair, which seems to have been quite good for the socialists, after all....

Overall, a more classical left-right fight, with the PS ahead, a huge chunk of undecided "centrist" voters and a lasting Le Pen threat.

[big bad fab]

FTR:

   9 May   16 May   23 May   
Arthaud   0,64   0,64   0,89   Arthaud
NPA   3,12   2,93   1,49   NPA
Mélenchon   4,41   4,41   5,16   Mélenchon
Chevènement   0,82   0,90   0,55   Chevènement
Aubry   21,26   21,17   23,84   Aubry
Hulot   8,55   8,65   7,91   Hulot
Bayrou   6,23   6,31   5,89   Bayrou
Borloo   9,83   10,03   8,48   Borloo
Villepin   4,61   4,50   4,09   Villepin
Sarkozy   19,96   19,96   21,23   Sarkozy
Dupont-Aignan   0,98   1,00   1,06   Dupont-Aignan
Le Pen   19,59   19,49   19,40   Le Pen


Arthaud   0,79   0,68   1,02   Arthaud
NPA   3,14   2,37   1,46   NPA
Mélenchon   4,43   4,61   5,12   Mélenchon
Chevènement   0,86   1,10   0,66   Chevènement
Hollande   21,5   22,01   24,78   Hollande
Hulot   8,71   8,36   8,13   Hulot
Bayrou   6,14   6,11   5,62   Bayrou
Borloo   9   8,18   7,78   Borloo
Villepin   4,86   4,40   3,83   Villepin
Sarkozy   19,57   20,37   20,81   Sarkozy
Dupont-Aignan   1   0,83   0,99   Dupont-Aignan
Le Pen   20   20,97   19,79   Le Pen
   

Arthaud   0,70   0,67   0,97   Arthaud
NPA   3,13   2,60   1,47   NPA
Mélenchon   4,42   4,53   5,14   Mélenchon
Chevènement   0,84   1,02   0,61   Chevènement
PS   21,36   21,67   24,41   PS
Hulot   8,61   8,47   8,04   Hulot
Bayrou   6,19   6,19   5,73   Bayrou
Borloo   9,50   8,92   8,06   Borloo
Villepin   4,71   4,44   3,94   Villepin
Sarkozy   19,80   20,21   20,98   Sarkozy
Dupont-Aignan   0,99   0,90   1,02   Dupont-Aignan
Le Pen   19,75   20,37   19,63   Le Pen
   

[big bad fab]

Weird swings this week... Both socialist leaders have gained a lot (so maybe DSK's eliminations suddenly made Aubry and Hollande more "credible" as candidates). Sarkozy significantly higher against Aubry and slightly higher against Hollande, Le Pen significantly lower against Hollande and unchanged against Aubry. Hulot and Borloo lose ground, especially against Hollande, while Mélenchon gains somewhat. The NPA falls into irrelevancy, and Chevènement is headed to be this year's Schivardi.

Just a technical question... When you say you reduce the weigh of a poll by 15% each week, do you mean 15% "arithmetically" or "geometrically" ? Ie does it go 100% -> 85% -> 70% -> 55% etc or 100% -> 85% -> 72% -> 61% etc ? It will change a lot with very old polls.

Arithmetically, so 1 / 0.85 / 0.7 / 0.55 / 0.4 / 0.25 / 0.1
It's giving too much weight to old polls (geometrically would be worse, though), I know, but we don't have much polls to "play with" .

From September, I think it will be busier and I'll probably change my weighting.
And of course, after the 16th of October, all will be clearer.

[big bad fab]

BVA poll for RTL, Orange and local press, 20-21 May 2011, sample 960

Hollande 27 / Aubry 24
Sarkozy 22 / 23
Le Pen 17 / 17
Hulot 12 / 12
Bayrou 4 / 6
Borloo 6 / 7
Villepin 5 / 5
Mélenchon 6 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1
NPA 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 0 / 0

Without Borloo, Villepin and Dupont-Aignan:

Hollande 29 / Aubry 26
Sarkozy 21 / 22
Le Pen 19 / 19
Hulot 13 / 13
Bayrou 8 / 10
Mélenchon 6 / 6
Arthaud 2 / 2
NPA 1 / 1

There are really 2 worlds among pollsters: those with Le Pen just behind Sarkozy and those with a safer margin for the president.
And those with Hulot high and those with Borloo high.

Otherwise, Hollande has now taken a part of DSK's heritage: he is able to steal voters from Bayrou, Borloo and Sarkozy. Of course, in lesser extent than DSK.

Interestingly, another poll which proves that Sarkozy is very low and weak: he gains only 1 point when all the other rightist candidates are taken off... The PS candidate is at +2, Hulot at +1, Bayrou at +4 and... Le Pen at +2 !!!

Second round:
Hollande 62 / Aubry 59
Sarkozy 38 / 41

From 1st to 2nd round, numbers aren't really reliable:
from NPA, 54% to Aubry and 46% to Sarkozy (but 70% to Hollande and 30% to Sarkozy)
from Arthaud, 67% to Aubry and 22% to Sarkozy !!! and 19% to Hollande and 4% to Sarkozy
from Villepin, 52% to Aubry and 28% to Sarkozy, but 49% to Hollande and 41% to Sarkozy LOL

Still, some interesting figures:
from Hulot, 60% to Aubry and 61% to Hollande (22 and 18 to Sarkozy)
from Bayrou, 48% to Aubry and 57% to Hollande (25 and 23 to Sarkozy)
from Borloo, 47% to Aubry and 53% to Hollande (47 and 32 to Sarkozy)

This is where Hollande is stronger: in a second round, he is better than Aubry and Sarkozy has, anyway, a real problem with the centre-right and the centre.

From Le Pen, 36% to Aubry and 27% to Sarkozy, 33% to Hollande and 29% to Sarkozy.
This is where Sarkozy is trapped: forced to be on the far-right not to be below her on the first round; then totally unsellable in the 2nd roudn among the centre-right but also for Le Pen voters...

The left is really lucky not to have had this DSK affair in December .

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #3 - 23 May 2011





Well, I haven't much time: colors aren't exactly what I wanted and it's not very clear... Antonio may be able to do better .

We still see the effect of DSK's downfall and the second graph gives us an idea of "vote utile".

[big bad fab]

Same thing with Hollande.

[big bad fab]

My graph is prettier but I'll wait until we have a bit more points to show it.

I believe you, that's easy . I've just used the graph option of Excel, shame on me !

WTF ? Sarkozy doesn't even gain one point when Villepin, Borloo and NDA aren't polled ?

In fact, yes, as I've said in the comment. The numbers were false.
But he only gains one point...

[big bad fab]

A new phone poll made by TNS-Sofres (20-21 May, sample 1013 registered voters):

Hollande is on the rise, mostly at the expense of the far-left candidates. In the only hypothesis it is possible to compare with the previous wave, Mélenchon seems to be hurt by Hollande. It’s also fascinating to imagine where the former Besancenot voters are going, now he is replaced by Myriam Martin, at last in this poll (it will be interesting to follow the race for the last spot between her and Arthaud). And Joly is basically tied with Hulot.   

For the second round, TNS has basically the same results as BVA for Hulot and Bayrou voters, but those who voted first for Borloo or Le Pen tend to vote a little more for Sarkozy in the 2nd round.

To be complete, this poll was made for Le Nouvel Observateur and i-Télé.

Transfers from first to second round:
from Le Pen: 25% to Hollande and 54% to Sarkozy / 23% to Aubry and 53% to Sarkozy (too perfect to be true in a way...)
from Hulot: 53% to Hollande and 27% to SArkozy / 58% to Aubry and 28% to Sarkozy (again, too perfect...)
from Bayrou: 70% to Hollande and 27% to Sarkozy / 52% to Aubry and 43% to Sarkozy
from Borloo: 38% to Hollande and 42% to Sarkozy / 34% to Aubry and 46% to Sarkozy

What I find surprising is the gap in Hollande and Sarkozy results in the 2 hypotheses of Hulot and Joly...
Or people polled are so clever that there is a transfer from Hollande to Green candidate, from Green candidate to Bayrou, Bayrou to Borloo, Borloo to Sarkozy and the other way round ?
That's doubtful...

The only good thing for the right is the fact that Delanoë and Fabius are so low.
Of course, people polled may think that it's so hypothetical that they can have fun by answering Hulot instead.
But isn't it a weakness for the PS ?
If they dive into internal fightings, won't they lose votes to Hulot more easily than we think ?

The best asset of the left is really... Sarkozy.
Nothing will be stronger than the "anyone but Sarko" (even the "anyone but Hollande" ...)

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #4 - 30 May 2011

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. There is a generic NPA candidate while we are waiting for Besancenot's replacement.

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...


30 May Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,92
NPA      1,13
Mélenchon   4,98
Chevènement   0,39
Aubry      24,57
Hulot      8,66
Bayrou      5,77
Borloo      8,02
Villepin      4,04
Sarkozy      21,78
Dupont-Aignan   0,75
Le Pen      18,97   


30 May Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud      1,02
NPA      1,13
Mélenchon   5,03
Chevènement   0,49
Hollande      26,01
Hulot      8,61
Bayrou      5,39
Borloo      7,43
Villepin      3,84
Sarkozy      21,03
Dupont-Aignan   0,73
Le Pen      19,29


30 May generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud      0,98
NPA      1,13
Mélenchon   5,01
Chevènement   0,45
PS      25,43
Hulot      8,63
Bayrou      5,54
Borloo      7,66
Villepin      3,92
Sarkozy      21,33
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen      19,17

Sarkozy is levelling out, but, as Le Pen is again slightly down, he remains safe.
NPA candidate is gradually fading away.
Things are more levelled in the centre ground and still down for Borloo and Bayrou. Hulot is slightly bouncing back.

The PS candidates (Hollande, Aubry, aggregate) are again on the rise. Hollande is still better placed than Aubry, but we'll see what happens next as in polls for primaries, Aubry is on the rise (I'll publish soon an IFOP poll when it's complete).

Overall, an even more classical left-right fight is confirmed, with the PS ahead; still a huge chunk of undecided "centrist" voters and a lasting Le Pen threat.

FTR:

   9 May   16 May   23 May   30 May
Arthaud   0,64   0,64   0,89   0,92
NPA   3,12   2,93   1,49   1,13
Mél.   4,41   4,41   5,16   4,98
Chev.   0,82   0,90   0,55   0,39
Aubry   21,26   21,17   23,84   24,57
Hulot   8,55   8,65   7,91   8,66
Bayrou   6,23   6,31   5,89   5,77
Borloo   9,83   10,03   8,48   8,02
Villepin   4,61   4,50   4,09   4,04
Sarkozy   19,96   19,96   21,23   21,78
Dupont-A.   0,98   1,00   1,06   0,75
Le Pen   19,59   19,49   19,40   18,97

   9 May   16 May   23 May   30 May
Arthaud   0,79   0,68   1,02   1,02
NPA   3,14   2,37   1,46   1,13
Mél.   4,43   4,61   5,12   5,03
Chev.   0,86   1,10   0,66   0,49
Hollande   21,5   22,01   24,78   26,01
Hulot   8,71   8,36   8,13   8,61
Bayrou   6,14   6,11   5,62   5,39
Borloo   9   8,18   7,78   7,43
Villepin   4,86   4,40   3,83   3,84
Sarkozy   19,57   20,37   20,81   21,03
Dupont-A.   1   0,83   0,99   0,73
Le Pen   20   20,97   19,79   19,29

   9 May   16 May   23 May   30 May
Arthaud   0,70   0,67   0,97   0,98
NPA   3,13   2,60   1,47   1,13
Mél.   4,42   4,53   5,14   5,01
Chev.   0,84   1,02   0,61   0,45
PS   21,36   21,67   24,41   25,43
Hulot   8,61   8,47   8,04   8,63
Bayrou   6,19   6,19   5,73   5,54
Borloo   9,50   8,92   8,06   7,66
Villepin   4,71   4,44   3,94   3,92
Sarkozy   19,80   20,21   20,98   21,33
Dupont-A.   0,99   0,90   1,02   0,74
Le Pen   19,75   20,37   19,63   19,17

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 19-27 May 2011, 1018 leftists and 505 socialists out of a total sample of 1919

among leftists / among socialists (change from preceding IFOP poll, 17-19 May)
Hollande 39 (-2) / 46 (-4)
Aubry 33 (+5) / 35 (+8)
Royal 12 (+2) / 9 (=)
Montebourg 5 (-2) / 3 (-1)
Valls 4 (=) / 4 (+1)
another one 2 (-8) / 1 (-6)
none of these 4 (+4) / 2 (+2)
don't know 1 (+1) / 0 (=)

Aubry is on the rise, due to the mediatic noise around the PS "project" and around her now obvious candidacy.

She'll probably wait for the last minute to declare, so that she can be able to benefit from party's structures and from media coverage on PS events until the end of June.

She is probably about to further narrow the gap. Will she be able to climb above Hollande ?
That remains to be seen and, considering the present trends, we won't know for sure until September. Unfortunately.
Then, we'll see where the momentum is.

If Aubry peaks too early, that could be a good thing for Hollande, who will be able to grasp the comeback of the pendulum...

Moscovici seems willing to declare his candidacy too, but he'll probably be at Valls' levels.
Logically, he could cost some points to Hollande, but I'm not sure polled people from the left answer based on ideological criterions...
(the biggest difference between Hollande and Aubry is about sex and age)

[big bad fab]

(the biggest difference between Hollande and Aubry is about sex and age)

I would have said than the biggest difference was personality.
Which is very important in a personalist primary like that.

Oh sorry , I wasn't very clear...:
I meant the biggest difference between the people polled who support each of them , not the difference between comrade François and comrade Martine !

Hollande is stronger among older people and among men, Aubry among younger people (even though not the youngest) and women.

[big bad fab]

I don't know if it's normal, but the Aubry total lacks 0.02 point. I know, that's not a big deal but I'm a perfectionist.

Goddam, each week brings its lil' mistake... All my credibility is gone, now .
No, you're PERFECTLY RIGHT to be perfectionist, I like it.
I'll check tomorrow.
It's again about Aubry hypothesis... I can't help messing up her results
(no, more seriously, this is because she wasn't tested in one old poll and if I haven't correctly worked on "boxes" in Excel, there is some mistake somewhere).

[big bad fab]

No, it's just a problem of rounding numbers. Often, it gives us 99.99, but here it's even 99.98.

If you really want to have 100%, Mélenchon should be put at 4.99 (he is at 4.9847) and Villepin at 4.05 (he is at 4.0444). All the others are farer from the superior number.

[big bad fab]

Guigou is behind Aubry and a great bunch of strauss-kahnians will support her (all the more if Mosco, supported by Marisol Touraine, is a candidate: that will let none of them behind Hollande).
And Delanoë, who isn't making any noise towards a candidacy (well, as there will be no big fight until July, he won't have any opportunity to appear as a potential "saviour"), will probably rally Aubry .
It's really all against Hollande... Maybe it's his great asset .


In other news, Yves Pietrasanta wants to be Génération Ecologie candidate for 2012.
He is back in this less leftist green party, after the Greens have excluded him as he didn't want to resign as VP of Frêche.

I mention it as it's not entirely impossible for him to gather the 500 signatures to be candidate.
The former president of GE, France Gamerre, claimed she gathered 466 in 2007.
Maybe it's less in fact, but Pietrasanta is a bit better known and some DVG mayors may be pushed to sign for him in order to steal votes from Hulot (an aim for the PS).
And maybe the UMP will push some DVD mayors if Borloo appears too strong.

With Dupont-Aignan, Boutin and (probably) Schivardi, he is among those candidates who are on the edge in terms of signatures.