Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 15, 2017, 09:16:38 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hash)
| | |-+  France 2012: the official thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 87 Print
Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 300077 times)
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31743
Colombia



View Profile WWW
« Reply #125 on: April 04, 2011, 01:41:17 pm »

PS
Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16.

Wait, so you have to pay to vote in the primary? That seems kind of... unsocialist.

The PS was in Obama-loving mood in 2008/2009 and decided to hold primaries... without ever understanding the uniqueness of American partisanship and how it allows primaries to work... So, I guess, in order to prevent the right-wingers from overrunning their beauty pageant primary, they decided to make people pay for it.
Logged



17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13350
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

View Profile
« Reply #126 on: April 05, 2011, 01:50:04 am »
Ignore

PS
Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16.

Wait, so you have to pay to vote in the primary? That seems kind of... unsocialist.

The PS was in Obama-loving mood in 2008/2009 and decided to hold primaries... without ever understanding the uniqueness of American partisanship and how it allows primaries to work... So, I guess, in order to prevent the right-wingers from overrunning their beauty pageant primary, they decided to make people pay for it.

For right-wingers who are fond of politics, of ANY politics, like me, the problem is more the "declaration of values" you'll have to sign before voting... Tongue
I could have paid one euro to vote for Royal, Pierret, Montebourg, Valls or Collomb Grin.

They expect voters in millions (1, 2, 3, they don't really know), but it will make a great amount money, considering the fact that French parties aren't so rich.
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2017.wordpress.com/
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13350
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

View Profile
« Reply #127 on: April 05, 2011, 07:45:04 am »
Ignore

IPSOS poll for Goomradio (don't ask me...), 28-30 March, sample 500 RV from 18 to 24 years old

DSK 30 / Aubry 14 / Hollande 10 / Royal 21
Le Pen 20 / 23 / 22 / 21
Sarkozy 14 / 16 / 18 / 16
Bayrou 12 / 15 / 16 / 13
Besancenot 11 / 15 / 14 / 13
Villepin 5 / 7 / 11 / 8
Arthaud 3 / 3 / 3 / 2
Joly 2 / 3 / 2 / 3
Mélenchon 1 / 2 / 2 / 2
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 0.5

Let me see : the French youth votes high for Le Pen, more for Royal, Bayrou, Besancenot, sometimes Villepin ?

I've always thought that, as we live longer, we should be given the right to vote... LATER, not earlier: so immature... Roll Eyes

No, when I was between 18 and 24 (1988-1994), I didn't want to vote for Le Pen, Tapie, Dufoix, Noir, Millon, Juquin or any other stupidity of the time...

and frankly, Royal, Marion "Marine" Le Pen, Bayrou, Besancenot and Villepin are far worse than the last 4 names...

Please listen again Pierre Desproges's Chronique de la haine ordinaire on youth...
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2017.wordpress.com/
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31743
Colombia



View Profile WWW
« Reply #128 on: April 05, 2011, 07:55:22 am »

I've always thought that, as we live longer, we should be given the right to vote... LATER, not earlier: so immature... Roll Eyes

That's borderline insulting to youths with a brain, which is more than a few. In fact, if youths voted more heavily in Canada, for example, we probably wouldn't be as screwed up as we are thanks to the used car salesman from Calgary.
Logged



17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13350
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

View Profile
« Reply #129 on: April 05, 2011, 08:14:24 am »
Ignore

I've always thought that, as we live longer, we should be given the right to vote... LATER, not earlier: so immature... Roll Eyes

That's borderline insulting to youths with a brain, which is more than a few. In fact, if youths voted more heavily in Canada, for example, we probably wouldn't be as screwed up as we are thanks to the used car salesman from Calgary.

Oh, I know, and that would have backfired against myself: I was SO eager to vote in 1988 Tongue !!!

Put this post in the category "it's already the campaign, I'm disgusted of all the stupidities the medias are saying, I'm disgusted this crap Aubry isn't politically dead yet, I'm disgusted of the free advertisements given to Marion Le Pen, I'm disgusted not even one leader from the right is able to be valuable in front of all this mess, etc, and so my hate boils over on the first opportunity" Grin

Still, when you see that some 18-24 years old switch from PS to Villepin when it's Hollande as a candidate, well.... (or even from PS to Besancenot or Bayrou when it's Aubry)
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2017.wordpress.com/
A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46654
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

View Profile
« Reply #130 on: April 05, 2011, 08:16:04 am »
Ignore

I admit I feel pretty ashamed to be young after reading these numbers.
Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6606
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #131 on: April 05, 2011, 10:24:23 am »
Ignore

I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46654
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

View Profile
« Reply #132 on: April 06, 2011, 04:37:09 am »
Ignore

I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*
Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6606
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #133 on: April 06, 2011, 10:15:24 am »
Ignore

I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*

Yes, I know haha... I'm being honest with myself. I think Royal would make a good president
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31743
Colombia



View Profile WWW
« Reply #134 on: April 06, 2011, 10:58:32 am »

I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*

Yes, I know haha... I'm being honest with myself. I think Royal would make a good president

You're insane.
Logged



17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6606
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #135 on: April 06, 2011, 12:31:55 pm »
Ignore

I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*

Yes, I know haha... I'm being honest with myself. I think Royal would make a good president

You're insane.

I don't think so. I'm honest with myself. I could have not said nothing and you wouldn't have known I like Royal haha.. But I think she has guts Wink I like her!
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31743
Colombia



View Profile WWW
« Reply #136 on: April 06, 2011, 12:59:09 pm »

No, but seriously, Royal is an idiot. She is quite incompetent, with little positive record in her region aside from running the regional council like her personal fiefdom and pissing off other legislators. Her whole "look at me, i'm anti-system establishment populist" is crap because her backers include a number of prominent party bosses most notably the Godfather of the Bouches-du-Rhone PS. She might be disliked by the current party majority and her backers may be outside the first circle of the Politburo, but there's nothing gutsy or populist about her. She is also, of course, insane as we saw in 2008 where she seemed to be running for the leadership of some religious sect.

Her 2007 platform was also nonsensical in that it consisted of creating an unrealistic number of jobs, increasing the minimum wage by a huge amount and other populist fraud. But most PS policy is nonsensical rhetoric which they can't implement. Her campaign was also a whole jumble of attempts to gain support, be it by playing the nationalist card or acting like a psycho in the debate.
Logged



17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46654
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

View Profile
« Reply #137 on: April 06, 2011, 01:56:52 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, really. Julio, if you like Royal you have to learn more about her.
Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8950
United Kingdom
View Profile
« Reply #138 on: April 07, 2011, 02:14:46 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, really. Julio, if you like Royal you have to learn more about her.

Yeah. Although I like her as a person, she's a total psycho who should never be allowed near office.
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13350
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

View Profile
« Reply #139 on: April 08, 2011, 07:49:10 am »
Ignore

So, from next week, polls will systematically include
Jean-Louis Borloo, because he has announced that the venerable Radical Party, will quit the UMP (it was an "associate" member),
and
Nicolas Hulot, because he will declare on Thursday,
as candidates.

As they are already forced to poll at least 3 options, with DSK, Aubry, Hollande, they won't lose time and money to poll 6 options with Hulot AND Joly or 12 options with AND without Borloo.

As a consequence, even if the situation is hypothetically better for Sarkozy, it will be bad for him, all the more that poll firms seem to be stuck to keep Villepin.

It won't be good for the Greens, as the 1 or 2 points Hulot is able to win on Bayrou or on the right, he will lose them towards the socialist. Worse, Borloo may be able to lessen their media impact, as Hulot but also Borloo are media favourites/puppies.

On the other hand, I'm not sure it'll be bad for DSK or Hollande, as Borloo and Hulot have already been tested, without much consequence for them.

Another collateral victim will probably be Bayrou (1 or 2 points are vital at this level...).



Will Borloo be eventually a candidate ?

Honestly, I don't know and he probably doesn't know himself.
It will depend on... polls, as usual.
If he has a small momentum and is able to pull a Barre-like summer or autumn surge, why not ?

For the moment, it is interesting to note that the centrists inside the UMP will follow him (Jégo, Daubresse, Paillé, Yade -LOL-) or are quiet (Méhaignerie).
Only Léonetti (but he is a Var deputy and he is still starving for a portfolio) explicitly warns against the risk of helping Marion "Marine" Le Pen.
I look forward to hearing from "La Droite Sociale" wing (Wauquiez) and from Méhaignerie himself. Also from some local satraps of the MoDem.

This is more bad news (now) for the right, but I can't help being happy to see political maneuvering Grin.
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2017.wordpress.com/
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6606
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #140 on: April 08, 2011, 09:51:55 am »
Ignore

thanks for the explanation, hash. I don't like populism.. I don't know why I like Royal.. I could not answer you.. but I think she is a honest person.
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31743
Colombia



View Profile WWW
« Reply #141 on: April 08, 2011, 12:10:51 pm »

thanks for the explanation, hash. I don't like populism.. I don't know why I like Royal.. I could not answer you.. but I think she is a honest person.

I don't think anyone whose allies include the Guerini clan can be honest.
Logged



17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13350
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

View Profile
« Reply #142 on: April 08, 2011, 04:30:06 pm »
Ignore

Well, I was wrong about Daubresse.

Together with Leonetti and Méhaignerie, he has officially said he stuck to the UMP for the end of this legislature.
In the next Parliament, they are OK, but not until the presidential election....

This is not very good for Borloo if no big centrist of the UMP follows him (Yade isn't one, of course, and Jégo is already in the Radical Party, no longer int he mainstream UMP).
Of course, in medias, this subtle positionings have no importance, but it underlines the fact that this is not a new big UDF, for the moment.
Logged

Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2017.wordpress.com/
A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46654
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

View Profile
« Reply #143 on: April 09, 2011, 06:28:01 am »
Ignore

Borloo won't create anything consistent, certainly not a new UDF. The only things he can do is to split the right and weaken Sarkozy (and that's enough for me Tongue).

But the UMP is headed to radicalization, and the ones who will try to oppose this move will be marginalized.
Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8950
United Kingdom
View Profile
« Reply #144 on: April 09, 2011, 11:56:11 am »
Ignore

But the UMP is headed to radicalization, and the ones who will try to oppose this move will be marginalized.

They're to UMP, not the GOP. Roll Eyes
Logged
A Strange Reflection
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 46654
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

View Profile
« Reply #145 on: April 09, 2011, 12:27:50 pm »
Ignore

But the UMP is headed to radicalization, and the ones who will try to oppose this move will be marginalized.

They're to UMP, not the GOP. Roll Eyes

The UMP will of course never be the GOP, because France is France. Tongue But that won't save us from a massive right-wing shift that has already begun.
Logged


"In the end, the world we live in is in darkness."
"That's why... we seek the light."

Noir, episode 26
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28683


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P

View Profile
« Reply #146 on: April 10, 2011, 05:46:35 am »
Ignore

I do love the crazy mess which is French politics.

Is the primary what actually decides the candidate? Or are there other elements involved? And if the former, will it be like other French elections with a run-off?
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31743
Colombia



View Profile WWW
« Reply #147 on: April 10, 2011, 07:08:09 am »

I do love the crazy mess which is French politics.

Is the primary what actually decides the candidate? Or are there other elements involved? And if the former, will it be like other French elections with a run-off?

Yeah, the PS primary will decide the candidate. It will be a primary with run-off if no candidate gets over 50%. The Greenies will hold a primary well, maybe a Joly-Hulot fight if she stays in and maybe Yves Cochet who has interest in running. The FG will choose in Politburo and then the choice will be ratified. The UMP has no primaries.
Logged



17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28683


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P

View Profile
« Reply #148 on: April 10, 2011, 08:56:25 am »
Ignore

I do love the crazy mess which is French politics.

Is the primary what actually decides the candidate? Or are there other elements involved? And if the former, will it be like other French elections with a run-off?

Yeah, the PS primary will decide the candidate. It will be a primary with run-off if no candidate gets over 50%. The Greenies will hold a primary well, maybe a Joly-Hulot fight if she stays in and maybe Yves Cochet who has interest in running. The FG will choose in Politburo and then the choice will be ratified. The UMP has no primaries.

Interesting. So in the UMP it's internal power politics that decides or what?

What are the polls saying about the PS primary run-off then? I presume DSK wins?
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31743
Colombia



View Profile WWW
« Reply #149 on: April 10, 2011, 09:11:48 am »

Interesting. So in the UMP it's internal power politics that decides or what?

Mostly Dear Leader decides for himself. Those right-wingers like Villepin or the centrists who don't want him already have created their own parties and they will announce themselves independently of the UMP. The UMP itself, save maybe for the Bible-Thumpin' loon Boutin, is solidly behind Dear Leader.

Quote
What are the polls saying about the PS primary run-off then? I presume DSK wins?

Actually, surprisingly few polls and the few show a close runoff if it's DSK-Aubry or DSK-Hollande. It certainly isn't outside the realm of possibilities that Hollande could win even if DSK does run.
Logged



17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 87 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines