France 2012: the official thread

[Hash]

Ugh, Bayrou. Seriously? How dumb can people get?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, Bayrou. Seriously? How dumb can people get?

Especially now that he's turning into some protectionist nutjob. I thought the guy couldn't get anymore pathetic, but thank you Bayrou for definitely proving us you don't believe in anything.

[Hash]

Ugh, Bayrou. Seriously? How dumb can people get?

Especially now that he's turning into some protectionist nutjob. I thought the guy couldn't get anymore pathetic, but thank you Bayrou for definitely proving us you don't believe in anything.

I still think the most amusing is Villepin's leftie turn into some type of ultra-social left-Gaullist ranting about evil capitalism and about how he can't sleep in a country which is so unequal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, Bayrou. Seriously? How dumb can people get?

Especially now that he's turning into some protectionist nutjob. I thought the guy couldn't get anymore pathetic, but thank you Bayrou for definitely proving us you don't believe in anything.

I still think the most amusing is Villepin's leftie turn into some type of ultra-social left-Gaullist ranting about evil capitalism and about how he can't sleep in a country which is so unequal.

Well, at least voters aren't buying in his sh*t...

The sad thing is that I was supporting him back in 2007 (well, OK, I was young and naive...). Thinking back to that time, I'm just realizing how crappy the field was at that time : I couldn't see myself voting for any of the candidates who got more than 2%... 2012 is not a huge improvement of course, but there are a few acceptable candidates who poll over 2% (say, Hollande and Joly ?).

[big bad fab]

There is another CSA poll today, with Bayrou at 11 (after 13 in the latest LH2).
See my blog.

I assume you didn't include it in the tracker, correct ?

I really don't get this Bayrou trend now. His new "buy French" campaign is so pathetic and overdone...

Anyways, it's a good surprise to see Hollande isn't crumbling. Considering how much of a fail he was in all these days...

No, CSA isn't included: I'm abiding by the traditional rules, don't worry .

There are 2 other Harris and IFOP polls tonight.
Bayrou again at 11, Le Pen at 19 and 20.
Hollande and Sarkozy down... (28 and 27.5 / 25 and 24)
And 57/43 and 56/44 in the second round.

And Villepin at 3 and 3.5 again Kill French people, this stupid people !!!

I'll publish them tomorrow on my blog and will announce a change in the way I weigh the polls .
The next tracker, on Monday the 19th (I won't be late, because it's holidays from tomorrow ), will be very interesting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Hollande is now officially below 30% ? It had to happen, but I hoped it would take a bit longer...

[Colbert]

2 questions


1-what represent flags under your pseudos?

2-where is post in the Essays thread on homely's work on France since 1750 ?




this 2012 campain will be very exciting, with a 5-players game


will hollande crush between mélanchon and bayrou?
will sarko cruch between bayrou and marine ?
will mélanchon or marine qualified for the final ?


the only problem for bayrou is the first round, becaue in case of qualification for the final, he'll win in ever configuration (even if he'll have difficulties on the legislative election)

[Colbert]

profile of the voter-type on IFOP last poll


Mélanchonist is a man, 25-35 years old, worker, artisan or small shopkeeper, belong to public employment, living in Paris's conurbation

Hollandist is a woman, 18-24 years old, employee, belong to public employment, living in Paris or paris's conurbation

Bayrouist is a man, 25-34 years old, high-white collar, belong to private sector, living in rural area

Sarkozist is a woman, 65+ years old, pensioner, had worked in private sector, living in paris or paris's conurbation

Marinist is a woman, 35-49 years old, worker, belong to independant sector, living in rural area

[Antonio the Sixth]

1-what represent flags under your pseudos?

The country you live in (or whatever country you choose, which can have nothing to do with where you live, in some cases).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145288.0

[Colbert]

continuing in the same IFOP poll, voting intentions (minim. 10%) by categorie


men

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 25%
3-Le Pen 18%
4-Mélanchon 10%

women

1-Hollande 30%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 21%

18-24 yo

1-Hollande 48%
2-Sarkozy 25%
3-Le Pen 11%


25-34 yo

1-Hollande 25%
2-Le Pen 21%
3-Sarkozy 19%
4-Bayrou 11%
5-Mélanchon 10%


less 35yo

1-Hollande 34%
2-Sarkozy 21%
3-Le Pen 17%
4-Bayrou 10%

more 35 yo

1-Hollande 28%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 20%


35-49 yo

1-Le Pen 32%
2-Hollande 24%
3-Sarkozy 18%


50-64 yo

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 19%


65+ yo

1-Sarkozy 37%
2-Hollande 30%

artisans/small shopkeeper

1-Hollande 25%
2-Le Pen 23%
3-Sarkozy 18%
4-Mélanchon 12%


white collar

1-Sarkozy 27%
2-Hollande 26%
3-Bayrou 15%
4-Le Pen 11%



intermediate job

1-Hollande 27%
2-Le Pen 26%
3-Sarkozy 21%
4-Bayrou 10%
5-Mélanchon 10%



employees

1-Hollande 42%
2-Le Pen 24%
3-Sarkozy 14%




blue collar

1-Le Pen 37%
2-Hollande 17%
3-Sarkozy 17%
4-Mélanchon 12%


pensioners

1-Sarkozy 38%
2-Hollande 29%
3-Bayrou 10%


unemployed/not active

1-Hollande 38%
2-Sarkozy 21%
3-Le Pen 19%


salaried on private sector

1-Hollande 27%
2-Le Pen 26%
3-Sarkozy 21%
4-Bayrou 10%


salaried on public sector

1-Hollande 33%
2-Le Pen 27%
3-Mélanchon 15%
4-Sarkozy 11%


employer/independant

1-Le Pen 29%
2-Sarkozy 21%
3-Hollande 20%




rural areas

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 27%
3-Le Pen 25%



no-parisian urban areas

1-Hollande 29%
2-Sarkozy 25%
3-Le Pen 20%


parisian urban area

1-Hollande 34%
2-Sarkozy 28%
3-Mélanchon 13%
4-Le Pen 11%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyways... 2nd round-wise, we're back to the pre-primary situation (58.34 for Hollande, 58.33 at the time). Which is pretty interesting because the 1st round situation wasn't the same at all :
- Hollande is 1.4 points stronger.
- Sarkozy has gained almost 4 points.
- Le Pen has picked 0.8.
- Bayrou had a 1.4 points surge.
- Mélenchon is slightly down, by a bit more than 0.1.
- Joly lost 1 point.
- Morin has lost 5.6 points of former Borloo voters.
- Villepin lost 1.9 points.
- Other candidates decreased by 1.2 points.

Anyways, Hollande's bleeding is almost stopped, and Sarko and Le Pen are down for the first time since a while. Of course, next Monday Hollande will lose significantly again...

[big bad fab]

Yep, see OW, IFOP  and Harris on my blog... not very good for Hollande (though it's not really better for Sarkozy).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yep, see OW, IFOP  and Harris on my blog... not very good for Hollande (though it's not really better for Sarkozy).

Yeah, awful numbers. I really fail to understand how the PS managed to screw up things that bad...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Seeing LePen so high almost makes me ill. I certainly hope that her support will not materialize on election day.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seeing LePen so high almost makes me ill. I certainly hope that her support will not materialize on election day.

Unfortunately, she's set to grow even more in the next months... The question now is whether she will break the 20% line on election day.

[Harry Hayfield]

Could I ask how this proposed Europe Nord constituency would be elected?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could I ask how this proposed Europe Nord constituency would be elected?

2-round FPP. The candidates who get more than 12.5% of registered voters in the first round are qualified for the second round, then whoever gets more votes wins.

[Hash]

Because the legislative elections are more interesting, here's a primer:

The PS and EELV (and PRG, nobody cares) have signed a sh**tstorm deal which everybody hates. In electoral terms, EELV can hope to win 20 or so seats overall on a good night for the left. The PRG will get its seats and might gain a few others.

Duflot will run in Paris-6, which the PS leadership abandoned to her but the incumbent PS deputy Danièle Hoffman-Rispal threw a hissy fit and is running as a dissident against Duflot, with the quasi-open endorsement of Delanoë-Hidalgo who have been very much against the deal because it gives Duflot a base for her 2014 mayoral candidacy against Hidalgo.

Yves Cochet is now an MEP (for one of those 2 extra seats) so Paris-10, which includes most of his old constituency, is reserved to the Greenies and they've chosen the rather leftie Denis Baupin against the even more crazy leftie Yves Contassot but incumbent PS deputy Serge Blisko might throw a hissy fit as well.

Lots of similar hissy fits in a lot of the constituencies reserved for EELV, where local PS members are opposing the deal.

Ségogo wants to be President of the National Assembly, but she needs a constituency, but can't afford to take her old constituency until 2007 because it would piss off Delphine Batho, her successor, and seemingly the last person who thinks Ségogo is useful for something. So instead she's running in La Rochelle, where it seems they convinced the Segolist incumbent to step down. But a lot of local members aren't keen on her candidacy already... They also considered dumping her in North Africa.

Jack Lang decided to be an ass and refused to run in the normal primary-ish convention for members in his Pas-de-Calais seat, so the PS is likely deciding to drop him somewhere in the Somme. Hamon is running in Yvelines-11 (Trappes)

A sh**tload of cabinet ministers are running, most for reelection. Juppé is getting a rematch in Gironde-2 with Delaunay. The collabo-in-chief Claude Guéant is undecided but would run in Yvelines-3 if he did. Meanwhile, his son is running in Morbihan (Ploermel).

The ultimate sh**tfest is Paris-2, where the ultimate battle is opposing Rachida Dati and François Fillon. Both want to be mayor of Paris in 2014, and both are pretty damn ambitious. Dati is backed Jean-François Copé, who hates Fillon likely because he's running for President in 2017. To add to the craziness, Alain Lambert, the president of the CG of the Orne and master of carpetbagging, is also running after admitting that he in fact lives in Paris. The constituency, which takes in most of the 5, 6 and 7 arrondissements, is safely blue.

The abroad seats are also shaping up interestingly. In Asia-Oceania, very right-wing, Thierry Mariani has been carpetbagged there and is now proceeding to use taxpayer money to fund his "official" trips to China and the like. Marie-Anne Montchamp, whose constituency was eliminated, is running the Benelux against Dodo Paillé, whose new job is to lose elections everywhere.

Meanwhile, in my very own constituency, I have the great luck of having as my UMP candidate... Frédéric Lefebvre! How lucky! He's also facing Julien Balkany, the half-brother of the big boss of the Levallois mafia. On a side note, Harpo is being a retard (again) and Canada is throwing a hissy fit saying that they oppose Canada being included in the constituency of a foreign state

[Antonio the Sixth]

(I won't be late, because it's holidays from tomorrow ),

Liar !

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #34 - 19 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 20% each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   30,36
Sarkozy   25,58
Le Pen   17,4
Bayrou   9,77
Mélenchon   6,56
Joly   4,17
Villepin   2,11
Morin   0,61
Lepage   0,51
Dupont-Aignan   0,86
Boutin   0,53
Nihous   0,02
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,75
   
Hollande   57,58
Sarkozy   42,42

(my dishwasher is kaputt: does this count as an excuse for being late ? )

I've slightly changed the way I weigh polls... because the campaign is fastening and more polls are published.

Bayrou up, up, up...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, I can see the effects of your change in weighting ! Did you apply it retroactively ? Or, to put it clearly, do you weigh polls this way ?
- This week : 100%
- Last week 80%
- Week before 65%
- Week before 50%
- Etc...

Or that way ?
- This week : 100%
- Last week 80%
- Week before 60%
- Week before 40%

Personally, I prefer the first way because it makes the change more gradual and avoids big artificial shifts.

[big bad fab]

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 but it's not so artificial because we lost anyway 4 polls at once.
So the changes are mainly the fact of Bayrou really rising, not of my new weighting §

And there is another OpinionWay poll tonight where he is at 14... (I'll publish it tomorrow on my blog).
And Hollande is at 27 in this poll...
Don't worry, I think Sarkozy is more at risk because of Bayrou, than Hollande.
But it's beginning to be interesting

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still, losing nearly 10 points lost in 2 month qualifies as "epic fail".

[redcommander]

Ok seriously why does the PS manage to keep shooting themselves in the foot? First it was Jospin, then Royal, then DSK, now Hollande has been falling. Can they ever re-win the Presidency? I'm not saying that Hollande isn't still the favorite, but he clearly has fallen greatly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ok seriously why does the PS manage to keep shooting themselves in the foot? First it was Jospin, then Royal, then DSK, now Hollande has been falling. Can they ever re-win the Presidency? I'm not saying that Hollande isn't still the favorite, but he clearly has fallen greatly.

I honestly feel lost. What I dreaded most was the primary, and I was sure that if the primary had gone well, everything would have gone fine after that. I really don't understand how they managed to screw things that bad in the last 2 months...

Hollande now is at its pre-primary level, except that Sarko, Le Pen and Bayrou are all higher. Things might get bad very soon...