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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 300097 times)
Kalwejt
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« Reply #175 on: April 24, 2011, 05:30:48 pm »
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Lol Bayrou.
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Because Gillibrand sig is too mainstream

A note:

The fascist Kalwejt has once again deleted a whole thread I made in the International board today.
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« Reply #176 on: April 24, 2011, 06:07:46 pm »
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Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?
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« Reply #177 on: April 25, 2011, 04:49:11 am »
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Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?

Please don't even talk about such a nightmare. The 2007 runoff was already awful enough.
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« Reply #178 on: April 25, 2011, 11:00:12 am »
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Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?

Please don't even talk about such a nightmare. The 2007 runoff was already awful enough.

but... who wins? I think Royal wins (with big bad fab's vote).
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« Reply #179 on: April 25, 2011, 11:01:43 am »
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Imagine 2nd round is Segolene X Le Pen. who wins?

Please don't even talk about such a nightmare. The 2007 runoff was already awful enough.

but... who wins? I think Royal wins (with big bad fab's vote).

Of course she wins... And the left gets a narrow margin in legislative elections and is headed to a disaster in 2017.
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« Reply #180 on: April 26, 2011, 07:20:12 am »
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IFOP poll for Paris-Match and Europe 1, 20-21 April, sample 917

At last, a GREAT poll:

Arthaud 0.5 / 1 / 0.5 / 0.5
Besancenot 4 / 4.5 / 4 / 4
Mélenchon 5 / 4.5 / 4.5 / 6
DSK 27 / Hollande  21 / Aubry 20 / Royal 16
Hulot 7 / 8 / 8.5 / 9
Bayrou 5 / 6 / 6.5 / 6.5
Villepin 4 / 4.5 / 5 / 5
Borloo 7.5 / 8.5 / 9.5 / 11
Sarkozy 20 / 21 / 21.5 / 21
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Le Pen 19 / 20 / 20 / 20

Le Pen is stable on high levels.
Besancenot is now under 5%, ô joie ! Grin

Royal is completely out. Aubry isn't a safe candidate for the PS and Hollande is still too risky though on the rise. DSK is the best but now under 30.

Hulot may be a problem for the PS, even if he will be attacked a lot and won't probably be able to survive many articles on his past and on his business relations...

What is most interesting is the fact that centrists are widely spread and reallt don't want Sarkozy. Borloo steals voters from the PS, Bayrou and Villepin. But it seems as if all these voters, probably former Bayrou voters from 2007 don't know where to go.

Sarkozy is a bit higher, but still in the margin of error against Le Pen.

Of course, all polls should be taken with a grain of salt...
Look at this other hypothesis with Joly rather than Hulot: how is Besancenot one point higher Huh and DSK 2 points lower ?

Arthaud 0.5
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5
DSK 25
Joly 5.5
Bayrou 6
Villepin 4
Borloo 8
Sarkozy 21
Dupont-Aignan 1
Le Pen 19

It's amazingly divided... But IFOP has tested another interesting hypothesis: Sarkozy alone in the right. And that's very, very bad for him: he has NO reserves.

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5.5
DSK 30 (logical)
Hulot 8.5
Bayrou 7 (he isn't so much higher)
Sarkozy 22.5 (only 2.5 points of difference !!!)
Le Pen 20.5 (probably Dupont-Aignan voters plus 0.5 from Villepin or Borloo or Sarkozy as some aren't afraid Sarkozy is ousted)

These results are really bad for Sarkozy: he is on his own, whether Villepin manages to be candidate, whether Borloo really wants to be candidate, whether NDA manages to gather 500 signatures.

Of course, he'll think even more that what is his first priority is to kill Le Pen in the 1st round.
But, by doing so, he is playing the PS game, as they aren't so strong; they win just because Sarkozy is weak (except DSK who has a small(er) personal advantage).

Still this double negative momentum, this vicious circle in which he is trapped and about which we've already discussed.
He really need a game change (and something more than Carla's hypothetic pregnancy Wink).

This is not very good either for the PS as, without a divided field on the left, well, Marion "Marine" Le Pen is even higher and so, without DSK, they may not avoid another 21st April so easily.

Sure, with the support of Canal + and Libération, Villepin will probably be candidate Grin, but still...



And this is not finished, as we've got 2nd round numbers too ! You've asked for them ... Wink

DSK - Sarkozy 61 - 39 (LOL)
Hollande - Sarkozy 56 - 44 (out of the MoE)
Aubry - Sarkozy 55 - 45 (out of the MoE)
Royal - Sarkozy 51 - 49 (until then, this was the only candidate Sarkozy has manged to beat...)

Please note that 64% of Borloo voters pick DSK, 46% of them pick Hollande and even 39% of them pick Aubry...
Sarkozy has really lost the former UDF voters...

Sarkozy - Le Pen 73 - 27 (which is better for Panzergirl than for Daddy in 2002)

DSK - Le Pen 75- 25
Hollande - Le Pen 72 - 28
Aubry - Le Pen 69 - 31

No Royal-Le Pen, but, considering Aubry is "only" at 69 %, we can assume Royal is at 65%, at most.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2011, 07:26:08 am by big bad fab »Logged

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Antonio V
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« Reply #181 on: April 27, 2011, 03:26:01 am »
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Compared with other polls, Sarkozy is around 3-4 points up. Statistical noise or is he really gaining ground ? Huh
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« Reply #182 on: April 27, 2011, 07:35:00 am »
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Compared with other polls, Sarkozy is around 3-4 points up. Statistical noise or is he really gaining ground ? Huh

This is IFOP, not Harris Interactive.
And there is the fact that Sarkozy has probably bounced a slightly bit since one month.
And it's not really 3-4: rather 2 at most.

Now that the fight is beginning inside the PS, expect Sarkozy to climb at 22-23, with DSK being lowered as he'll nearing the arena.

Sarkozy is structurally weak and should lose this.
But the PS isn't very high and the political scene is utterly crowded and divided, this is amazing.
It's fine to have a primary, but it won't prevent Mélenchon, a Green, Bayrou, Besancenot to be candidates...
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« Reply #183 on: April 28, 2011, 08:55:16 am »
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CSA poll for BFM-TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 26 April, sample 1010

DSK 26 / 27 / 27 / 28
Sarkozy 21 / 22 / 21 / 23

Le Pen 20 / 19 / 19 / 19
Hulot 9 / 9 / 8 / 9
Borloo 4 / - / 8 / -
Villepin 4 / 5 / - / -
Bayrou 5 / 7 / 6 / 8
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 5
Besancenot 4 / 4 / 4 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 2

Borloo steals more to Bayrou than Villepin. Both of them steals to DSK, Sarkozy and Bayrou.
But it appears that Hulot is now the strong man of this vast central zone.

Borloo is really disappointing in this poll, compared to the IFOP one.
Hulot is now at 9, i.e. he coalesces Greens and many centrists.

Sarkozy has gained 3-4 points since the previous CSA poll.
But Le Pen remains very high and he is not so strong.

DSK is weaker, being now clearly under 30.
And, what is more, he may be threatened by one "centrist" or another.

Besancenot seems to have, at last, decreased: IFOP and CSA put him at 4.

The PS should really be careful, as war is on between DSK and Hollande supporters (with Aubry surprisingly "protecting" Hollande, whom she hates: is she trying to use him to weaken DSK and then appear as a compromise solution ?).
As I've said before, the moment DSK is candidate, he will be seen as the socialist candidate and will lose 2-4 points among moderate voters.
The threat of another 21st of April isn't over.

But, of course, if the socialist candidate is able to make it to the second round, it's over for Sarkozy, as he is hated by so many people.

Now that Sarkozy is a bit up, paradoxically, there will be less whispers about another candidate on the right. BUT, precisely, if the right is up, she should Fillon or Juppé in order to have a small chance against DSK or Hollande... Tongue
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« Reply #184 on: April 28, 2011, 09:10:39 am »
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So, from next week, polls will systematically include
Jean-Louis Borloo, because he has announced that the venerable Radical Party, will quit the UMP (it was an "associate" member),
and
Nicolas Hulot, because he will declare on Thursday,
as candidates.

As they are already forced to poll at least 3 options, with DSK, Aubry, Hollande, they won't lose time and money to poll 6 options with Hulot AND Joly or 12 options with AND without Borloo.

As a consequence, even if the situation is hypothetically better for Sarkozy, it will be bad for him, all the more that poll firms seem to be stuck to keep Villepin.

It won't be good for the Greens, as the 1 or 2 points Hulot is able to win on Bayrou or on the right, he will lose them towards the socialist. Worse, Borloo may be able to lessen their media impact, as Hulot but also Borloo are media favourites/puppies.

On the other hand, I'm not sure it'll be bad for DSK or Hollande, as Borloo and Hulot have already been tested, without much consequence for them.

Another collateral victim will probably be Bayrou (1 or 2 points are vital at this level...).


So, I was right for Bayrou, but I was wrong about the fact that some Greens would go to the socialist because they dislike Hulot.
There aren't so many apparatchiki of the Greens in poll samples Grin, so Hulot is indeed "bad" for Borloo and Bayrou, but also for the socialist candidate.

Some angry voters from the mainstream right, who had fled directly to DSK (and to him alone), have probably come back, which explains a small rebound for Sarkozy.

Everything is very fluid.

Borloo's moment is already over, as many Radical bigwigs (Léonetti) won't follow him outside the UMP (nor centrist UMPers, like Méhaignerie and Daubresse).
Basically, Borloo will just be NC+Parti Radical potential candidate. Already, Morin isn't tested any longer in polls. But that's the only difference...

Hulot's moment is now but won't last long. Expect socialists and leftist Greens to fire at him through "independent" medias (Mediapart, Rue89, Le Post, Slate,...) if they see Hulot reaching 10%.

We are now probably entering a moment when the PS is back to the frontpage. If there are some polls on PS primaries with Hollande threatening DSK and with Hamon tested, expect some big surprises from medias' storytellers.

One big month before DSK is almost officially in... This will be excruciating for the Saviour's supporters Wink.
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« Reply #185 on: April 28, 2011, 10:43:49 am »
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So Sarkozy is really up... For visiting a couple of factories and promising a 1000€ gift to a handful of people ?

As I've said, stupidity shouldn't surprise me anymore at this point. But...
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« Reply #186 on: April 29, 2011, 03:32:34 am »
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So Sarkozy is really up... For visiting a couple of factories and promising a 1000€ gift to a handful of people ?

As I've said, stupidity shouldn't surprise me anymore at this point. But...

I don't rethink his rebound is linked to these small facts.
I think some angry mainstream right voters who answered "DSK" or even "Le Pen" in March-April are now a bit more relaxed and a bit more aware of the threat of a reverse 21st of April and so have come back to Sarkozy.

But, well, even being at 21-23 for the Great Leader of the right isn't exactly what we can call a huge achievement... Tongue
(when Chirac was at 19, it was because there was another big candidate, Giscard, Barre, Balladur, or because he was just lucky to have Jospin even lower...)
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« Reply #187 on: April 29, 2011, 12:50:58 pm »
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Well, Borloo, Villepin, Bayrou &co... I know they're pretty weak compared to past candidates, but adding their vote they are a big handicap to Sarko. Of course a couple of their voters may go to the left otherwise, but still a majority clearly favors the right.
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« Reply #188 on: April 29, 2011, 05:20:50 pm »
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IFOP poll for Paris-Match and Europe 1, 20-21 April, sample 917

Arthaud 0.5
Besancenot 4
Mélenchon 5
DSK 27
Hulot 7
Bayrou 5
Villepin 4
Borloo 7.5
Sarkozy 20
Dupont-Aignan 1
Le Pen 19

IFOP has tested another interesting hypothesis: Sarkozy alone in the right. And that's very, very bad for him: he has NO reserves.

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5.5
DSK 30 (logical)
Hulot 8.5
Bayrou 7 (he isn't so much higher)
Sarkozy 22.5 (only 2.5 points of difference !!!)
Le Pen 20.5 (probably Dupont-Aignan voters plus 0.5 from Villepin or Borloo or Sarkozy as some aren't afraid Sarkozy is ousted)

Bayrou gains 2 points, Hulot 1.5, DSK 3, Mélenchon 0.5, Besancenot 1
and Sarkozy only 2.5 ...
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« Reply #189 on: April 30, 2011, 03:45:52 am »
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Well, thats quite surprising. Mélenchon and Besancenot, really ? Huh
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« Reply #190 on: May 05, 2011, 06:35:13 am »
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So now we have the "Porschegate"... And of course the first to denounce this horrible scandal are DSK's socialist "friends". Roll Eyes

Stupid, stupid, stupid French politics.
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« Reply #191 on: May 05, 2011, 07:04:24 pm »
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I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...
Islamophobia is very widespread in America, though it would be difficult for her here.  Even if our corrupt and stubborn two-party system could be broken, Marine's version of the FN would have a difficult time, as the far-right would be alienated by her liberal stances on gay rights, abortion, secularism, and divorce, not to mention her left-wing economic positions.  However, if Bruno Gollnisch were to run here (assuming he could break the two-party system, or win the Republican nomination), he would have a good chance of perhaps 30% of the vote or more.  America is so screwed up, it's embarrassing. 
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« Reply #192 on: May 07, 2011, 04:33:55 pm »
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Nobody has checked opinion polls this past week ?

Anyway, I'll do it in the next 2 days.

Isn't there a lasting little momentum towards Hollande ?
He may really finished as ideally positioned if Aubry isn't a candidate...
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« Reply #193 on: May 08, 2011, 04:51:09 pm »
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LH2 poll for Yahoo!, 6-7 May 2011, sample 970

Another bad news for Sarkozy, but not so good news for socialists.
Other mushrooming names: Hulot and Borloo.

It's not like we haven't anticipated it, but French people are really globally stupid.
Another evidence ? Besancenot is no longer candidate and so NPA support vanishes... don't tell me these people are now intending to vote for Hulot or Borloo or Chevènement Roll Eyes.

Arthaud 1 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Mélenchon 4 / 4 / 4 / 6
Chevènement 3 / 2 / 2 / 2
DSK 23 / Aubry 22 / Hollande 21.5 / Royal 15
Hulot 11 / 11 / 11 / 13.5
Bayrou 8 / 7 / 7 / 8
Borloo 9 / 11 / 10 / 11
Villepin 6 / 4.5 / 5 / 5
Sarkozy 16 / 19 / 19 / 20
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Le Pen 17 / 17 / 18 / 17

So, it's a negative hypothesis for Sarkozy, of course, as there are both Villepin and Borloo. But it's not unrealistic.
Le Pen is still high though a bit less.
Royal is definitely a too weak candidate.

BUT the great news is that DSK bonus seems to have vanished.
Hollande doesn't seem stronger than Aubry in the 1st round, but he is better in the second one.

DSK-Sarkozy 65-35
Aubry-Sarkozy 56-44
Hollande-Sarkozy 60-40

DSK-Le Pen 77-23
Aubry-Le Pen 71-29
Hollande-Le Pen 76-24
Sarkozy-Le Pen 74-26

We are really at the crossroads for the socialists. DSK is threatened. Aubry has still a big chance because she is the first secretary and she can rally both the left (Hamon) and more moderate figures (Delanoë), but she seems to have dropped. Hollande is on the rise, but still not enough.
If Hollande manages to come ahead of DSK, you'll see a big change in the momentum and in the media story...

Sarkozy is weak, but Borloo wouldn't be able to have so high numbers in a real campaign and, of course, Hulot steals votes from both sides (though probably more to DSK than to Sarkozy).

Please note that DSK's fall is due to voters from Borloo, Hulot, Bayrou and Villepin going back to their "hero" (of the moment).

Chevènement is tested for the first time and seems to take 1 point from Mélenchon.

Another hypothesis tested is with Joly:
Arthaud 1
NPA candidate 0.5
Mélenchon 5
Chevènement 1
DSK 24
Joly 9 (her best result !!! how ironic now that Hulot is ahead !)
Bayrou 8
Borloo 9
Villepin 5.5
Sarkozy 18
Dupont-Aignan 1
Le Pen 18

The important differences between Joly and Hulot tests should of course lead us to take this poll with a big grain of salt (or to be convinced that French voters are definitely too stupid for a presidential system Tongue)

Eventually, Bayrou seems to be up again, though Borloo is now above him.

Really a very fluid situation, much is now at stake for the centres and for the socialists.

Who will really emerge in the big centre ? Hulot, Borloo, Bayrou ?
Who will win between DSK and Hollande ?
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« Reply #194 on: May 09, 2011, 02:26:38 am »
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BUT the great horrible news is that DSK bonus seems to have vanished.

Fixed.
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« Reply #195 on: May 09, 2011, 04:37:29 am »
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BUT the great horrible news is that DSK bonus seems to have vanished.

Fixed.

FTR, "great" on my keyboard was really neutral Wink.

Well, it's really the first poll that shows this.
LH2 isn't a great pollster, but we've also said it about Harris Interactive, and their first !!!OMG!!! poll was quite accurate after all...

I think I'm going to create a tracker, to try to figure out where the momentum is.
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« Reply #196 on: May 09, 2011, 04:54:13 am »
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Would be nice, yeah. Smiley I could make a chart too if you provide the data. Wink
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« Reply #197 on: May 09, 2011, 05:03:42 am »
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So what's this "Porschegate"?
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« Reply #198 on: May 09, 2011, 05:07:42 am »
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So what's this "Porschegate"?

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.
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« Reply #199 on: May 09, 2011, 05:13:57 am »
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So what's this "Porschegate"?

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.

Class based populism bothers me... Only Greens shouldn't have the right to drive a Porsche Wink
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