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« Reply #250 on: May 15, 2011, 12:14:37 pm »

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl Grin and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin Tongue).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

Doesn't mean anyone knew who he was beforehand--certainly not anyone who isn't involved in international law/finance/journalism (like a hotel worker). It's just a juicy story. Also, had he been arrested in, say, Moscow, the American media would barely care at all.
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« Reply #251 on: May 15, 2011, 12:50:26 pm »

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl Grin and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin Tongue).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

Doesn't mean anyone knew who he was beforehand--certainly not anyone who isn't involved in international law/finance/journalism (like a hotel worker). It's just a juicy story. Also, had he been arrested in, say, Moscow, the American media would barely care at all.
Well, if DSK is out, is Hollande the next obvious front-runner?
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« Reply #252 on: May 15, 2011, 03:13:47 pm »

Just read some posts above in this thread.

It's not so obvious.
Hollande is on the rise and may naturally bring some moderate socialists with him.
But, among the apparatchiki, he is not loved by DSK supporters, who may join Aubry.

As Aubry controls the machine, the apparatus and has the support of all the left of the party, plus Fabius, plus Delanoë, she has a central positioning which is a real strength. I keep repeating it: without DSK (and I said this before all this mess), Aubry is very well positioned.
Hollande is a bit too much on the right.

So, it may be a "anyone but Hollande" campaign now.
Only Royal will not choose between the 2. Royal hates Aubry, but she also hates her ex-husband Hollande. But, in a second round (as thre wouldn't be a winner in the first round among those 3, plus some other contenders), Royal voters may well switch to Aubry more than to Hollande.

The great asset of Hollande now is that he has a positive media image.
Even though Libération and Le Nouvel Obs (and all the leftists from Mediapart and Rue89) may well support Aubry.

BUT.... DSK is still here. He isn't guilty of anything for the moment. So, wait and see.
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« Reply #253 on: May 15, 2011, 03:51:16 pm »

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl Grin and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin Tongue).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

Doesn't mean anyone knew who he was beforehand--certainly not anyone who isn't involved in international law/finance/journalism (like a hotel worker). It's just a juicy story. Also, had he been arrested in, say, Moscow, the American media would barely care at all.

Aren't hotels inclined to tell their staff if their guest is a bigshot, to make sure they get the best service possible?  "The Head of the International Monetary Fund, likely to be the next President of France, is in room XYZ."
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« Reply #254 on: May 15, 2011, 04:06:27 pm »

Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.


I haven't said that Le Pen is on the rise again, probably because... Besancenot isn't a candidate any longer !

I've already underlined this direct relation between far-left and far-right and this seems to be right again (Panzergirl is at 40% among bluecollars and is first among employees...).
It's confirmed.
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« Reply #255 on: May 15, 2011, 04:10:36 pm »

People still think that sex scandals matter in France as much as they do in the US.

Isn't there a little difference between an affair and (if this is true, of course) rape attempt?
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« Reply #256 on: May 15, 2011, 04:51:57 pm »

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl Grin and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin Tongue).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

Doesn't mean anyone knew who he was beforehand--certainly not anyone who isn't involved in international law/finance/journalism (like a hotel worker). It's just a juicy story. Also, had he been arrested in, say, Moscow, the American media would barely care at all.

Aren't hotels inclined to tell their staff if their guest is a bigshot, to make sure they get the best service possible?  "The Head of the International Monetary Fund, likely to be the next President of France, is in room XYZ."

The police say she was told the room was unoccupied.
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« Reply #257 on: May 15, 2011, 05:23:47 pm »

The idea that people are too rational to do stupid stuff when running for office has never been correct. Look at John Edwards, Tiger Woods, Richard Nixon and so on and so forth.

But I suppose it might be French customs not really mixing with American. Tongue

As deplorable as John Edwards is, he never raped anyone.  I mean, as Chris Rock once said, rape is number 2 on the scale of bad things.  There's murder, then there's rape.  This isn't a standard scandal at all...outside of Moshe Katsav, I can't name a prominent politician this past decade brought up on rape charges (one of you will prove me wrong).

That's irrelevant as regards questions of intelligence though.

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady. I'm sure our charming resident sexists can add on similar ideas.

My high school French teacher worked as an au pair in France and the dad of that family tried to force himself on her. It was no biggie in his eyes.

(and, I can mention Zuma to prove you wrong)

WTF are you talking about? Rape is rape, period. We aren't talking here about an Arab seikh or an African king where the cultures about the role of woman are vastly different.
We are talking about a French politician, who already had trouble in the past with sexual scandals, so he could hardly consider himself above suspicion.

You don't think there is a difference in the role of a woman between different "Western" countries? As a Swede, I can assure you there is.

I mean, I think this act (as described in the media) is rape, but I'm not a powerful man from a sexist culture. We have several wonderful posters here with views on rape that are, well, different from mine.

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« Reply #258 on: May 15, 2011, 05:24:49 pm »

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady. I'm sure our charming resident sexists can add on similar ideas.

My high school French teacher worked as an au pair in France and the dad of that family tried to force himself on her. It was no biggie in his eyes.

(and, I can mention Zuma to prove you wrong)

Thank you Gustaf for providing your usual stereotypes. And no, your now famous French teacher isn't an evidence of anything.

If you're interested in discussing about facts, let us know.

Thank you Antonio for providing your usual arrogant stupidity.

If you're interested in a civil and intelligent discourse, let me know.
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« Reply #259 on: May 15, 2011, 05:34:19 pm »

Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.
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« Reply #260 on: May 15, 2011, 05:44:38 pm »

Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.
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« Reply #261 on: May 15, 2011, 05:46:45 pm »

Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.

ikr, surely it wasn't the perpetrator's fault...let's imply it was more the victim's fault and craft this up to be one huge misunderstanding in cultural relativism.
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« Reply #262 on: May 15, 2011, 05:48:13 pm »

Quote
As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady.

I don't think that saying is condoning rape; it's just describing how social interaction generally works.
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« Reply #263 on: May 15, 2011, 06:37:07 pm »

Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.

I must have missed the part where I called an entire people sexist. A country having a sexist culture isn't the same as everyone in it being sexist. I would have thought that rather obvious.

And while I realize you may be blind to it, being French and all, France is known to be a pretty sexist nation. Not as bad as most non-industrialized nations of course, but still.
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« Reply #264 on: May 15, 2011, 06:38:10 pm »

Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.

ikr, surely it wasn't the perpetrator's fault...let's imply it was more the victim's fault and craft this up to be one huge misunderstanding in cultural relativism.

I hope you're not implying that that is what I'm implying. Because it isn't.
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« Reply #265 on: May 15, 2011, 06:39:36 pm »

Quote
As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady.

I don't think that saying is condoning rape; it's just describing how social interaction generally works.

For rapists, maybe.

No, but, seriously it's an extremely sexist attitude obviously. And its logical conclusion is the occasional rape.
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« Reply #266 on: May 15, 2011, 07:07:06 pm »

Quote
As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady.

I don't think that saying is condoning rape; it's just describing how social interaction generally works.

Well, the fact that that saying is usually attributed to legendary misogynist Bismarck might hint that it does.
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« Reply #267 on: May 15, 2011, 07:30:42 pm »

Folks, 10 will get you 20 that the maid couldn't respond to DSK in any verbal manner even if she wanted to, unless she was Haitian, or something.  Maybe.

Second, when you start doing things that only George Constanza would do, it is painfully clear that you're not qualified to do much of anything.

Third, the idea that this news story is only deserving of being reported within the elections thread of a separate board is a determination only worthy of fascists, sexual deviants and perverts, much like DSK.
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« Reply #268 on: May 15, 2011, 07:41:00 pm »

Now, PS can go to a crazy contest. Delanöe can go back to game, while Hollande and Aubry are gaining strength (even before this scandal, they could defeat DSK). Royal, with seek of revenge, can go even to a independent candidacy to destroy PS chances. It looks by now, that Mr. Sarko can get to run-off with Panzergirl.
My dream would be Royal going to the way of her family and making a surprise endorsement to Marine. It would give legitimacy to her with mainstream politicians.
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« Reply #269 on: May 15, 2011, 08:54:54 pm »

My dream would be Royal going to the way of her family and making a surprise endorsement to Marine. It would give legitimacy to her with mainstream politicians.

That would be a lot more shocking and unexpected than DSK going around raping chambermaids. Probably, more worthy of condemnation as well.
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« Reply #270 on: May 15, 2011, 11:16:15 pm »

Sorry if I don't apreciate people who deem an entire people sexist because of a few things he heard. You have no clue what the heck you are talking about, but you say it as if it were an evidence. This is called bigotry, and I find it interesting it comes from someone who usually points out bigotry in everybody.

I must have missed the part where I called an entire people sexist. A country having a sexist culture isn't the same as everyone in it being sexist. I would have thought that rather obvious.

And while I realize you may be blind to it, being French and all, France is known to be a pretty sexist nation. Not as bad as most non-industrialized nations of course, but still.

Wow. Must I remember you a thread about Israel where I was in the same situation than you? You can't condemn me and trying to defend you from the same thing at the same time.

Well, DSK is probably out of the race, which is good, since IMF ran neo-liberal politics. French left doesn't need to be a soft copy of the right.
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« Reply #271 on: May 16, 2011, 01:35:30 am »

What would be the result of a presidential election in the second round between a Socialist candidate from the parties' left wing and the National Front?
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« Reply #272 on: May 16, 2011, 01:57:37 am »

What would be the result of a presidential election in the second round between a Socialist candidate from the parties' left wing and the National Front?

Probably 69-31 or so. Unless its Royale in which case Le Pen might get to 37-38%%.
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« Reply #273 on: May 16, 2011, 02:05:36 am »

IFOP poll for Paris-Match and Europe 1, 20-21 April, sample 917

(...)

Sarkozy - Le Pen 73 - 27 (which is better for Panzergirl than for Daddy in 2002)

DSK - Le Pen 75- 25
Hollande - Le Pen 72 - 28
Aubry - Le Pen 69 - 31

No Royal-Le Pen, but, considering Aubry is "only" at 69 %, we can assume Royal is at 65%, at most.

Please see above.

All the presidential polls are published here, as soon as they are available in a complete manner.
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« Reply #274 on: May 16, 2011, 02:33:30 am »

IFOP poll for Le Journal du Dimanche, 10-12 May 2011, 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010

Here we are.

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23

Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

In fact, they haven't tested Aubry...

So, yes, Marion "Marine" Le Pen is on the rise again due to Besancenot's decision not to run.
Another evidence that, if Sarkozy has lost his 2007 gains, the PS is unable to reach to popular electorate.

In another hypothesis, without Villepin and Dupont-Aignan, it was DSK and Bayrou who gained... A bit surprising, but another evidence that DSK was high because he was able to gather voters from the centre-right.

DSK 28
Le Pen 22.5
Sarkozy 22
Bayrou 7
Borloo 6.5
Hulot 6
Mélenchon 5.5
Chevènement 1
NPA candidate 1
Arthaud 0.5

Now, without DSK, we'll probably go back to a classical fight.

Sarkozy must be above Le Pen, so he'll keep on a far-rightist strategy, hoping that Borloo won't make him too bad. Bayrou may become an objective ally of Sarkozy, like in 2007, by weakening the left, especially if it's Aubry.

Hulot will become even more a problem for the socialists, who will try to influence the Green primary to kill him. And with the current system, Hulot is far from sure to be nominated as theri candidate.

A re-run of  2007 campaign and strategies, with more uncertain results and final results as in 2002 ? Tongue

The problem for Sarkozy is that, even if he eventually wins, he won't have a majority in the National Assembly, as hate is so deep towards him...

At least, suspense is back in the 2012 French elections.
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