France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

CSA for La Dépêche du Midi, 9-10 March, sample: 853

No other detail for the moment than the "big 3".

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22

So, Panzergirl is always on the second round.
And only DSK qualifies.

Unfortunately, no sociological data, but, at least, the details of 1st rounds:

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22
Bayrou 5 / 6 / 7 / 8
Villepin 4 / 6 / 6 / 7
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Joly 4 / 3 / 6 / 5
Mélenchon 6 / 5 / 5 / 5
Besancenot 8 / 8 / 8 / 8
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

Well, in line with IFOP for the big 3, but not for some smaller candidates.
Joly is low, Besancenot is, again, high (sigh...).
Mélenchon, Bayrou and Villepin are more in the general trend.

Villepin numbers (combined with Sarkozy's) show again how DSK steals votes directly from the right (and from Joly and Bayrou, of course), without losing almost any point to the "left of the left".

What will be interesting now:
1. How cantonales results will impact on Panzergirl:
- whether the FN remains without any elected candidate and it's seen as a failure in the "momentum" or its "victimization" and "anti-establishment" line is revived,
or if the FN has some elected candidates or forces PS and UMP in a mess over "republican front" themes in the second round

2. How cantonales results will impact on Aubry and Hollande, boosting only one of them (Hollande benefiting from a Royal-like effect, as after 2004 regionales; Aubry being seen as the builder behind another 4 or 5 departments conquered) or boosting both of them and hence neutralizing any effect, relative to DSK

3. How Fukushima and other nuclear sites in Japan will affect Green support; TBH, Joly isn't heard on this (as on anything), but take a look at Hulot: when he'll be in the race, he'll have medias for him; his rise may well affect any socialist candidate; but I think he will grasp votes more on weak candidates rather than on DSK strong position;
of course, this is my guess, you can say exactly the opposite, considering DSK has a more centrist position and Hulot may well be a substitute for centre-right voters, fed up with Sarkozy, having currently their small "lovefest" with DSK and ready to go towards Hulot, the "ideal son-in-law"

3b. In case of Hulot's designation by Greens, how will Borloo's "dance" will impact on its candidature; probably not much, given Borloo's utter failure in polls for the moment. Anyway, it can only be positive for DSK, as Borloo may now weaken Sarkozy a little bit more and would minimize Hulot's bubble

4. How socialist project will affect socialist candidates; I really think that what is supposed to support Aubry will kill her;
any political plan nowadays is seen as unreadable, uninteresting, unrealistic, etc.
If DSK has survived his silence so far, his Paris journey, Panzergirl's rise, attacks from the "left of the left", so-called Green rise, he'll be able to survive Aubry's small moves.
Aubry is probably positioning herself for Matignon.

I really think 2011 will be far more interesting than 2012 .

[big bad fab]

- Because DSK is moderate enough to grasp directly centre-right voters, "real" former UDF (don't make a confusion with Bayrou and the MoDem: they weren't and aren't the real UDF).

These centre-right voters voted for Sarkozy in 2007. Not all of them but a big slice.
Now, they have entirely fled Sarkozy.

These voters, Aubry (Mrs. "35 hours") or Royal (Mrs. Madness) are unable to appeal to them.

Hollande may be able to, one day, but he has a bad image among them because of his long tenure as "chief apparatchik" of the PS. And he is obliged not to go too far on the right, like DSK or Valls, because his only chance is to gather the centre and the left of the PS, in case he is alone against DSK.

- In 2007, that was Sarkozy who put the pressure on 2 fronts: reformism, "values" for the centre-right, security and "labour" for the popular vote and the extreme-right.

Now, he is the one under pressure from both fronts.

He should have dropped his 2007 strategy in ... 2009, when FN results showed it wasn't dead. It's indeed too late now.
Sarkozy should pray Aubry is the socialist candidate, he pushes her towards the left by taking a European stance and letting Panzergirl gain on the right, to hope making it to the 2nd round against Marine Le Pen...
A bit dangerous...

[big bad fab]

2007 MoDem voters were a bit from the UDF, a bit from the centre-left ("moving" voters between Greens, PRG, PS), a big bit from the abstention and a small bit from... Le Pen (the anti-establishement theme was also one of Bayrou in 2007).

As for REAL centre-right voters (traditional Giscard, Barre, Balladur voters), they weren't disgusted by Sarkozy in 2007. But, now, I agree with you, they are.
And many of them are ready to vote for DSK as soon as in the 1st round.

I was just imagining that Sarkozy could have tried to rally them, because popular voters he stole from the FN in 2007 won't vote for him, I agree.
Of course, it's now too late for Sarkozy to try to solidify the centre-right, while considering the far right is already lost...

[big bad fab]

Viavoice poll for Liberation (10-12 March, sample 1007)

Wishes of victory:
DSK 46
Hollande 27
Aubry 27
Fillon 26
Sarkozy 22
Villepin 21 (ugh)
Le Pen 19 (this is a very interesting result: she is at her maximum here)

Forecasts of victory:
DSK 67
Sarkozy 41 (he must find a clue... there is something here... not so bad)
Aubry 33
Le Pen 30 (LOL)
Fillon 29

[big bad fab]

IPSOS for Le Monde & Europe 1 (14 March, sample 948)

Remember this was the best pollster in 2007 (and since then), with a slight Sarkozy advantage (but Pierre Giacometti joined him soon after 2007 ): maybe it's now completely neutral...

Very bad results for Sarkozy, whose fall seems to be unstoppable. He is at "chiraquian" levels, now !

DSK 33 / Aubry 23 / Hollande 23 / Royal 17
Le Pen 19 / 21 / 21 / 21
Sarkozy 18 / 21 / 21 / 21
Bayrou 5 / 8 / 8 / 10
Joly 5 / 5 / 5 / 7
Besancenot 6 / 6 / 7 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 6
Arthaud 2 / 2 / 2 / 2
Villepin 5 / 7 / 6 / 7
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

Again, DSK is the only one to grasp votes from Sarkozy, Villepin and Bayrou in a significant way.
This is his strength.

Of course, this may be his weakness once he is candidate, as he will be seen as another traditional socialist and so will lose part of his lead.
But if he is accepted as the main candidate before his fall in polls, it's OK for him inside the party: he will have put aside Aubry, who has no specific personal advantage .

Therefore Hollande doesn't want to drop. He has a chance of being almost on a par with DSK in polls after July and of being more acceptable to leftists who will vote in the primary election.

And, of course, Royal is out .

Oh, another interesting data: "can your choice change ?"
With DSK: no 56 yes 44
Aubry: no 50 yes 50
Hollande: no 49 yes 51
Royal no 47 yes 53
Of course, you can say one thing and its opposite for each result (when it's DSK, the others are so low that their "voters" are sure of them... or when it's Royal, she is low but can in fact gain many other votes... but still)

[big bad fab]

I suggest DSK pick TAIO Cruz & Kylie Minogue's "song", HIGHER, as an official hymn:
it could give him a dancing and young image

[big bad fab]

I don't want to put IPSOS poll on the previous page already: it's the important one today.

But, still, a BVA poll for Le Nouvel Observateur (to be published tomorrow) (11-12 March, sample 975) on the preferred candidate for the right:

Among French voters, Fillon has 50%, against 22% for Sarkozy and 28% without opinion.
Among rightist voters, Fillon has 53%, against 47% for Sarkozy.
Among UMP voters, Fillon has 45%, against 55% for Sarkozy.

Among French voters, Juppé has 48%, against 25% for Sarkozy and 27% without opinion.
Among rightist voters, Juppé has 48%, against 52% for Sarkozy.
Among UMP voters, Juppé has 43%, against 57% for Sarkozy.

(for this last number, I even think many UMPers doubt Juppé's chances even more than Sarkozy's ones; otherwise, Juppé would be up)

Something is broken for Sarkozy on the right.
He has probably a way to come back, but hasn't found it yet.

[big bad fab]

Retaliation is a sin .
Honestly, only DSK is safe. So, it's threatening for everybody.

Really, Panzergirl peaks far too early. There will be a backlash.
Let's hope it won't be a backlash and then a comeback for her just in time for the 22nd April of 2012 .

[big bad fab]

IPSOS poll for France Télévisions, 25-26 March, sample 965

DSK / Aubry / Hollande / Royal
34 / 25 / 23 / 17
Sarkozy
17 / 20 / 21 / 20
Marion "Marine" Le Pen
21 / 22 / 22 / 22
Villepin
5 / 8 / 8 / 9
Morin
1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan
1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Bayrou
5 / 7 / 7 / 8
Joly
5 / 5 / 5 / 7
Mélenchon
4 / 4 / 5 / 6
Besancenot
6 / 6 / 6 / 7
Arthaud
1 / 1 / 1 / 2

Disappointing for Mélenchon and for... Sarkozy, which isn't beaten only in one case: with Royal as PS candidate...

Compared with the previous poll from IPSOS, it is confirmed that Panzergirl wins voters both from Sarkozy and from the far-left.

Again, DSK is strong, because he doesn't lose points to the far-left or to the Greens, but is able to steal votes from centre, centre-right and right.

[big bad fab]

A BVA poll, very close to IPSOS for the first 3, but with other candidates tested

(25-26 March, for L'Express and France Inter, 826 RV among a total sample of 982)

DSK / Aubry 29 / 24
Sarkozy 17 / 19
Le Pen 19 / 20
Villepin 6 / 7
Borloo 5 / 6
Bayrou 4 / 5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Hulot 7 / 8
Mélenchon 4 / 4
Besancenot 7 / 6
Arthaud 1 / 0.5

Of course, there is Borloo AND Villepin, which is probably bad for Sarkozy.
And this proves also that, without Villepin and with Borloo, Sarkozy would be able to qualify (just) AND hurt a little bit the Socialist candidate and Bayrou.

Borloo seems to be bad also for DSK.

Hulot is about 2 points above Joly.
Mélenchon is really down. Besancenot still stupidly high.

Poor Hollande, he is not tested (I don't even speak of Royal).

I'm looking forward hypothesis with Fillon and... Juppé, that would be fun.

But, of course, leftist medias wouldn't be interested if they polled better than Sarkozy .
And rightist medias would be afraid of Sarkozy's anger .
True, the only poll which tested Fillon and Copé was very bad for these ones, but it was some months ago.... A century ago...

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 31 March-1 April
sample 577 left voters and 247 socialist voters, among a total sample of 1016

(with results from previous polls of 10-11 February and 24-25 February)

among left voters:
DSK 43 / 40 / 37
Hollande 11 / 15 / 22
Aubry 24 / 17 / 18
Royal 12 / 17 / 12
Montebourg 3 / 4 / 5
Valls 4 / 4 / 3

among socialist voters:
DSK 46 / 49 / 41
Hollande 11 / 15 / 25
Aubry 22 / 15 / 15
Royal 14 / 19 / 9
Montebourg 3 / - / 6
Valls 2 / 2 / 3

Of course, Hollande's surge is the big story. Aubry is really low, especially among socialist voters. The only interesting result for her is that, no surprisingly, Hollande and DSK are strong among the same constituencies: upper classes, old people.
But Hollande is stronger among Mélenchon and communist voters: this is why he is a very good momentum: he may be able to kill Aubry first and then would be supported by all the left against the "horrible liberal capitalist" DSK (by default).

(and when Royal will be below Montebourg ? LOL !)

Of course, the sample are tiny, but socialist leaders (and voters) have no other reference...
And what is important is the trend, not the absolute result.


Harris Interactive for Le Parisien, 29-31 March
sample of 594 right voters (no other precision)

Do you support a candidacy from this guy ?

among right voters:
Fillon 57
Sarkozy 54
Juppé 41
Borloo 33
Villepin 29
Copé 22
Bertrand 15 ( who has decided to include him ?)
Morin 15
Dupont-Aignan 12

among UMP voters:
Sarkozy 78
Fillon 70
Juppé 47
(no other number available for the moment)

Le Parisien says Sarkozy is unavoidable: well, given the fact that we are only in April, Fillon and even Juppé (but he is too low among young voters to hope big) aren't so badly positioned.
Borloo is more disappointing given (and despite) his cool media image.
Villepin has his best result among 18-35 years old right voters (and Dupont-Aignan too):

[big bad fab]

PS
Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16.

Wait, so you have to pay to vote in the primary? That seems kind of... unsocialist.

The PS was in Obama-loving mood in 2008/2009 and decided to hold primaries... without ever understanding the uniqueness of American partisanship and how it allows primaries to work... So, I guess, in order to prevent the right-wingers from overrunning their beauty pageant primary, they decided to make people pay for it.

For right-wingers who are fond of politics, of ANY politics, like me, the problem is more the "declaration of values" you'll have to sign before voting...
I could have paid one euro to vote for Royal, Pierret, Montebourg, Valls or Collomb .

They expect voters in millions (1, 2, 3, they don't really know), but it will make a great amount money, considering the fact that French parties aren't so rich.

[big bad fab]

IPSOS poll for Goomradio (don't ask me...), 28-30 March, sample 500 RV from 18 to 24 years old

DSK 30 / Aubry 14 / Hollande 10 / Royal 21
Le Pen 20 / 23 / 22 / 21
Sarkozy 14 / 16 / 18 / 16
Bayrou 12 / 15 / 16 / 13
Besancenot 11 / 15 / 14 / 13
Villepin 5 / 7 / 11 / 8
Arthaud 3 / 3 / 3 / 2
Joly 2 / 3 / 2 / 3
Mélenchon 1 / 2 / 2 / 2
Morin 1 / 1 / 1 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 0.5

Let me see : the French youth votes high for Le Pen, more for Royal, Bayrou, Besancenot, sometimes Villepin ?

I've always thought that, as we live longer, we should be given the right to vote... LATER, not earlier: so immature...

No, when I was between 18 and 24 (1988-1994), I didn't want to vote for Le Pen, Tapie, Dufoix, Noir, Millon, Juquin or any other stupidity of the time...

and frankly, Royal, Marion "Marine" Le Pen, Bayrou, Besancenot and Villepin are far worse than the last 4 names...

Please listen again Pierre Desproges's Chronique de la haine ordinaire on youth...

[big bad fab]

I've always thought that, as we live longer, we should be given the right to vote... LATER, not earlier: so immature...

That's borderline insulting to youths with a brain, which is more than a few. In fact, if youths voted more heavily in Canada, for example, we probably wouldn't be as screwed up as we are thanks to the used car salesman from Calgary.

Oh, I know, and that would have backfired against myself: I was SO eager to vote in 1988 !!!

Put this post in the category "it's already the campaign, I'm disgusted of all the stupidities the medias are saying, I'm disgusted this crap Aubry isn't politically dead yet, I'm disgusted of the free advertisements given to Marion Le Pen, I'm disgusted not even one leader from the right is able to be valuable in front of all this mess, etc, and so my hate boils over on the first opportunity"

Still, when you see that some 18-24 years old switch from PS to Villepin when it's Hollande as a candidate, well.... (or even from PS to Besancenot or Bayrou when it's Aubry)

[big bad fab]

So, from next week, polls will systematically include
Jean-Louis Borloo, because he has announced that the venerable Radical Party, will quit the UMP (it was an "associate" member),
and
Nicolas Hulot, because he will declare on Thursday,
as candidates.

As they are already forced to poll at least 3 options, with DSK, Aubry, Hollande, they won't lose time and money to poll 6 options with Hulot AND Joly or 12 options with AND without Borloo.

As a consequence, even if the situation is hypothetically better for Sarkozy, it will be bad for him, all the more that poll firms seem to be stuck to keep Villepin.

It won't be good for the Greens, as the 1 or 2 points Hulot is able to win on Bayrou or on the right, he will lose them towards the socialist. Worse, Borloo may be able to lessen their media impact, as Hulot but also Borloo are media favourites/puppies.

On the other hand, I'm not sure it'll be bad for DSK or Hollande, as Borloo and Hulot have already been tested, without much consequence for them.

Another collateral victim will probably be Bayrou (1 or 2 points are vital at this level...).


Will Borloo be eventually a candidate ?

Honestly, I don't know and he probably doesn't know himself.
It will depend on... polls, as usual.
If he has a small momentum and is able to pull a Barre-like summer or autumn surge, why not ?

For the moment, it is interesting to note that the centrists inside the UMP will follow him (Jégo, Daubresse, Paillé, Yade -LOL-) or are quiet (Méhaignerie).
Only Léonetti (but he is a Var deputy and he is still starving for a portfolio) explicitly warns against the risk of helping Marion "Marine" Le Pen.
I look forward to hearing from "La Droite Sociale" wing (Wauquiez) and from Méhaignerie himself. Also from some local satraps of the MoDem.

This is more bad news (now) for the right, but I can't help being happy to see political maneuvering .

[big bad fab]

Well, I was wrong about Daubresse.

Together with Leonetti and Méhaignerie, he has officially said he stuck to the UMP for the end of this legislature.
In the next Parliament, they are OK, but not until the presidential election....

This is not very good for Borloo if no big centrist of the UMP follows him (Yade isn't one, of course, and Jégo is already in the Radical Party, no longer int he mainstream UMP).
Of course, in medias, this subtle positionings have no importance, but it underlines the fact that this is not a new big UDF, for the moment.

[big bad fab]

Interesting. So in the UMP it's internal power politics that decides or what?

Mostly Dear Leader decides for himself. Those right-wingers like Villepin or the centrists who don't want him already have created their own parties and they will announce themselves independently of the UMP. The UMP itself, save maybe for the Bible-Thumpin' loon Boutin, is solidly behind Dear Leader.

Boutin has made some noises that she may stick her party to Borloo's future movement.

[big bad fab]

ViaVoice poll for Liberation, 7-8 April, sample 1015

Wishes of victory (change from one month ago):

DSK 45 (-1)
Hollande 31 (+4)
Fillon 30 (+4) (fine)
Aubry 29 (+2)
Juppé 24 (not polled) (great !)
Sarkozy 23 (+1)
Borloo 22 (+6) (new media story of the moment)
Royal 22 (+4) (not yet entirely dead ?)
Villepin 21 (=) (les Français sont des veaux)
Hulot 19 (+1) (ROFL)
Besancenot 18 (+4) (Besancenot président de la Prépublique française... isn't there something wrong here ?)
Bayrou 16 (=) (LOL at this magnificent result ! )
Marion "Marine" Le Pen 16 (-3) (backwards from the peak ?)
Joly 10 (-2)
Copé 10 (not polled) (ROFL)
Mélenchon 9 (+2) (rising... )
Valls 8 (=) (not declining... )
Montebourg 8 (-3) (well... )

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for Le Journal du Dimanche, 7-8 April, sample 957

Who is best placed to represent values and ideas of the center ?

(previous results from January 2011, December 2010, November 2010)

Borloo 37 / 32 / 31 / 24
Bayrou 36 / 41 / 44 / 41
Villepin 19 / 19 / 15 / 23
Morin 7 / 7 / 10 / 9

At least, Borloo may be able to terminate Bayrou and the very idea of a Morin candidacy.
That's a result, after all...

And LOL at this now entrenched idea in French medias and pollsters that Villepin can be a centre or even centre-right candidate...
Just because Sarkozy has a "libérale" and rightist tendency doesn't make Villepin a new Raymond Barre...

[big bad fab]

I really wonder how many times Villepin has been invited to Le Grand Journal, on Canal+, the "moral authority of modern France"....

So funny to see the porno-foot-sarcastic-money making TV machine which was a standard-bearer against CPE now supporting a mad man, just because he is against Sarkozy...
Pathetic, really.

Villepin is just a fake, a grand bourgeois heir (but, after all, all those great spirits are also grand-bourgeois heirs...).
At least, his father had real personal culture !

[big bad fab]

LH2 poll for Le Nouvel Observateur, 9-10 April, sample 970

Do you intend to vote in the PS primary ?
yes, certainly 16%
yes, probably 14%
no, probably not 19%
no, certainly not 48%
don't know 3%

LOL ! Imagine the PS with 12 million people coming to vote in October...

What is more interesting is that the "yes" is higher for
18-24 years old (42%),
25-34 years old (37%), even if the younger you are, the likelier you are to say something and do the contrary...
income less than 1200 euros (36%)
public sector employees (35%)
i.e. bad numbers for DSK and good ones for... Royal !

Among the whole sample / among people from the left / among socialists:
DSK 32 / 36 / 43
Aubry 15 / 18 / 19
Hollande 14 / 18 / 25
Royal 11 / 12 / 7
Montebourg 2 / 3 / 2
other (non mentioned) 4 / 3 / 0
don't know 22 / 10 / 4

Fascinating to see that Hollande is now in better shape inside the socialist party and among the left voters and to see that it's the same for... DSK !
Aubry hasn't really a comparative advantage here.

And we don't know where Valls is...


They've also tested a possible primary inside the UMP

Among the whole sample / among people from the right / among UMPers:
Fillon 29 / 33 / 31
Sarkozy 28 / 41 / 49
Juppé 14 / 9 / 8
Copé 9 / 8 / 3
other 3 / 1 / 2
don't know 17 / 8 / 7

Even if Fillon isn't ridiculous at all, how stupidly disciplined they are... They should have polled me, damn it !
LOL at Copé result.

[big bad fab]

OpinionWay poll for Le Figaro, 12-14 April, sample 951

Probability to vote in the PS primary:
Among voters from the whole left: 18%
Among socialists: 24%
Among Greens: 8%
Among far-left voters: 11%

OpinionWay reckons that likely voters would be 2 to 2.5 billions, which is far more reasonable than the previous LH2 poll....

And probability numbers seem more reliable in detail too: numbers by party (sse above), 20% among men, 16% among women, 25% among more than 50 years old, 11% among less than 50 years old.

Among the whole left / among socialists / among likely voters
(beware: less than 200 for the latter category)

DSK 46 / 51 / 46
Hollande 22 / 21 / 18
Aubry 19 / 18 / 24
Royal 8 / 8 / 9
Montebourg 5 / 2 / 3
don't know 15 / 5 / 7

DSK 52 / 58 / 55
Hollande 28 / 25 / 25
Royal 13 / 13 / 15
Montebourg 7 / 4 / 5
don't know 16 / 7 /10
(no second round here)

Hollande 37 / 40 / 35
Aubry 35 / 36 / 42
Royal 13 / 14 / 14
Montebourg 10 / 5 / 5
Valls 5 / 5 / 4
don't know 23 / 14 / 15

DSK is still strong, and especially among socialists.

Aubry hasn't the momentum in polls and the fact she is on a par with Hollande while being positioned more centrally (both politically and... functionally) in the party isn't really very good...
BUT she seems to have a stronger core of voters.
And I feel the medias, those days, are a bit in love for Aubry (and Villepin, of course).
Stupid feminist reflex (Aubry, a woman ROFL) ?
Pavlovian anti-Sarkozy reflex (Hulot hasn't had a good media coverage, Villepin is obviously favoured, Aubry is better treated than "horrible social-democrats" DSK and Hollande) ?
Hope this won't last...

I'm surprised Hollande doesn't perform better when Aubry isn't candidate.

And Royal is definitely lost.

[big bad fab]

Good to see DSK still ahead.

Now, for God's sake, please go on and announce your damn candidacy !!!

He really can't do it before the G8 (26-27 May in Deauville).
Let's be patient .
With Hulot, Borloo, Villepin (and Clearstream), Royal, I think these... what?... 7 weeks will pass very quickly .

[big bad fab]

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 19-20 April, sample 926

This is to be published tomorrow, so the numbers for the small candidates aren't available now, but it seems Borloo is emerging a bit, with Villepin and Bayrou down. Hulot is a bit higher than Joly and Besancenot a bit lower than usual.

DSK 30 / Hollande 22 / Aubry 21 / Royal 15
Le Pen 21 / 22 / 23 / 23
Sarkozy 19 / 19 / 20 / 19

DSK still high, though a bit less stratospheric (but remember there are both Borloo and Hulot in the list now).
Hollande is safer than Aubry for the 2nd spot (22-19 and 21-20 against Sarkozy).

Of course, Harris Interactive is that pollster which was the first to put Marion "Marine" Le Pen ahead. So take these new results with a grain of salt.

But, again, Harris and Le Parisien are really good sellers, as they are the first to give complete first round polls since the cantonales. Where are the serious ones ?

[big bad fab]

They are originally all from a "responsible" left, but they've all positioned quite differently due to political needs inside the party...

Royal is basically a populist, with social and economic measures tilting towards statism, public intervention, gifts to low-revenue people. But she has also built an image of someone strong on public security and on "values" inside families (though she is also "librul" on gay rights or things like that) and of someone who cares about everyday issues.
She has positioned herself more on the left of the party recently, because the left of the PS has no big leader (Emmanuelli, Hamon) who is viewed as a potential candidate. But they don't like her anyway.
Shortly after having graduated from the ENA, she was a Mitterrand under-minister (thanks to her boyfriend... Hollande) and was moderate at that time.
She is a lunatics, who has lost many of the bigwigs who once followed her.
She is now out and definitely out.

Aubry is a heir (she is Jacques Delors' daughter) and has been in the ENA, National School of Administration. She was between Mauroy and Jospin, so, yes, more on the left of the party, but not terribly.
But she has a leftist image, especially by having created the 35-hour week at work. She pushes for more spendings, by massively hiring young people in low-paid jobs in public structures, for example, in the same way she did in the late 1990s.
And she has used many leftist words recently because it gives her 25% of the party, as Montebourg is low and Hamon isn't candidate.
More important, she is at the political center of the PS and at the functional center of it, by having beaten Royal to become First Secretary in 2008. So, she has a good basis.
But her national polls aren't very good as she is bad in medias. She has a nasty personality in private.

Hollande (another former ENA student) is a former follower of Delors and has always been more a social-democrat. He has a very similar positioning to the one of DSK. He is a fiscal reformer and doesn't want to spend too much.
He has never been a minister but has been First Secretary between 1997 and 2008. He is liked by many PS rank-and-file and because of his sense of humour.
But he is also seen as too smooth: so he has lost weight recently...
He tries to be strong enough to make DSK drop and to grasp his reformist mantle.
But if he succeeds in being stronger than Aubry before June, he may also be able to kill DSK with the support of the left.

DSK is indeed seen as a very, very "libéral" guy, because of his good image among business in 1997-2000, when he was Economics and Finance minister, and because of his job in the IMF.
Still, he was closer to Jospin than to Rocard, first of all, and was initially (when he was economics professor and expert) less moderate than Hollande.
His current platform is, by definition, unknown, though.
He loves women, all the women, and had some problems with this in Washington, but that's more a strength in France...
He loves wines, food, money. The latter may be a problem for many rank-and-file in the left. But against Sarkozy, not so much...
His biggest strength now is that he is only one to be sure to be on the second round. As Marine Le Pen is high, Sarkozy isn't sure to make it to the second round, but Aubry and Hollande have only a small margin of security (Royal is down).