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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 358415 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #375 on: May 18, 2011, 09:59:51 AM »

Secondly, drugging and then anally raping a 14-year old girl didn't make Roman Polanski unpopular in France. Your government took him in and defended him vigorously. In fact, you're defending DSK right now.

Again, the two affairs have really nothing in common. To the points I've made earlier, let me add being an artist isn't the same thing as being a politician, and if Polanski ever ran for an office he wouldn't get half a vote.

Actually they have everything in common.  Once back in France, DSK would be no more extraditable than Polanski was.  That's the primary consideration here.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #376 on: May 18, 2011, 11:35:25 AM »

If you manage to read back in this thread the most recent polls I've posted (Wink), here is the 3rd one in a row with Hollande largely ahead of Aubry in primary election:

OpinionWay for Le Figaro and LCI, 17-18 May 2011, sample 974 leftist voters (584 socialists, 201 Greens, 189 far-leftists and 193 likely voters in the primary)

among the whole left / among the socialists / among the likely voters

Hollande 49 / 51 / 62
Aubry 27 / 28 / 22
Royal 12 / 13 / 9
Montebourg 7 / 4 / 4
Valls 5 / 4 / 3
(no choice 13 / 9 / 6)

The gap is really significant, even if the last 2 samples are tinier.
No real mini-surge here for Royal, just a big gain for Hollande.

And another hilarious hypothesis, with Delanoë and Fabius and humiliating results for the latter and disappointing ones for the former:

Hollande 45 / 47 / 51
Aubry 24 / 25 / 20
Royal 9 / 10 / 9
Delanoë 9 / 9 / 10
Montebourg 5 / 2 / 3
Valls 5 / 4 / 3
Fabius 3 / 3 / 4 (LOL Cheesy, but also Sad as he doesn't deserve such a result)
(no choice 11 / 6 / 6)

Delanoë and Fabius steals votes from all the candidates, except from Valls.
Hollande remains very high.

It seems that Aubry is now pushed to the left of the party. If this is confirmed, it would be a great victory for Hollande as he is able both to be in the center and on the right, ready to grasp centrist voters outside the party.
A pity Hamon isn't tested, so that we can try to confirm this hypothesis.

Of course, we must remain very cautious: I'm not so sure so many people will vote (20% likely voters among the whole left). And those who will vote may be quite different.
And, of course, OpinionWay polls for rightist medias (though we have already noted that they are far from being a joke pollster since 2009).
But, still, Hollande is precisely higher among those who are the surest to vote...

After Harris and CSA, this is the 3rd pollster to have the same trend and a similar gap.
Of course, let's wait for more serious ones, IPSOS, IFOP or SOFRES.

This pre-primary race is now fascinating Smiley.
Enjoy it !
We are completely americanized, now Wink:
- DSK in jail
- Daddy Sarkozy
- pre-primary campaign and selection
- non-candidates who are campaigning a bit without being really sure (Borloo, Villepin)
- primaries in small parties (Greens, FG, even NPA in a way).

We really need a VP, now: that would allow Sarkozy to have Borloo and to smooth his image Grin.
And Hollande could pick a young woman or a minority guy or a Green.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #377 on: May 18, 2011, 12:09:42 PM »

So we're struck with candidate (and if God wants President) Hollande. What a failure.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #378 on: May 18, 2011, 12:12:38 PM »

So we're struck with candidate (and if God wants President) Hollande. What a failure.


Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #379 on: May 18, 2011, 12:33:22 PM »

An Austrian MP is under heavy fire for saying this about DSK in parliament:

"Obwohl er schon ein reiferer Mann, zeigt Dominique Strauss, was er noch Ka(h)nn."

"Even though Dominique Strauss is already a mature man, he still shows what he can (Kahn)."

http://derstandard.at/1304552182958/Grossruck-sorgt-mit-Strauss-Kahn-Reim-fuer-Empoerung

The Greens want him to step down because of that, while the ÖVP backs him. All other parties are condemning the remarks as well.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #380 on: May 18, 2011, 12:38:18 PM »

I just read that this ÖVP MP closed his parliamentary sessions always with a rhyme in the last years ... Tongue
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #381 on: May 18, 2011, 12:50:13 PM »

Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?

Nope. I supported DSK and now I'll back the best placed candidate who isn't Hollande or Royal.


An Austrian MP is under heavy fire for saying this about DSK in parliament:

"Obwohl er schon ein reiferer Mann, zeigt Dominique Strauss, was er noch Ka(h)nn."

"Even though Dominique Strauss is already a mature man, he still shows what he can (Kahn)."

http://derstandard.at/1304552182958/Grossruck-sorgt-mit-Strauss-Kahn-Reim-fuer-Empoerung

The Greens want him to step down because of that, while the ÖVP backs him. All other parties are condemning the remarks as well.

What an idiot and an asshole. People like him don't deserve to be a representative of the people.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #382 on: May 18, 2011, 01:11:50 PM »

Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?

Nope. I supported DSK and now I'll back the best placed candidate who isn't Hollande or Royal.

     Thinking about backing Aubry, then?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #383 on: May 18, 2011, 01:40:30 PM »

Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?

Nope. I supported DSK and now I'll back the best placed candidate who isn't Hollande or Royal.

     Thinking about backing Aubry, then?

Definitely (if she runs). I don't hate her like my fellow Frenchie. Grin I think she is a serious person, she knows her job and will be able to counter Sarko's lies. She is definitely a poor speaker, but at least she isn't a useless wimp who will look like Martin Luther Kind for half a second and then will become an absolute joke. Also, for a Jospinian like me, it's normal to have DSK and Aubry as his prefered choices. Wink
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Franzl
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« Reply #384 on: May 18, 2011, 01:54:22 PM »

Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?
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« Reply #385 on: May 18, 2011, 02:00:46 PM »

Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?

The first round is basically a free-for-all (unless you're trying to tactically stop Marine Le Fasciste), so probably...

Dominique de Villepin? Jean-Louis Borloo?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #386 on: May 18, 2011, 02:07:32 PM »

Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?

Borloo isn't exactly your kind of candidate (too "social"), but if you don't want to vote for Sarkozy that's your best alternative. In the second round, you'd almost certainly vote for Sarkozy (which makes you a HP Grin).
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #387 on: May 18, 2011, 02:08:35 PM »

Are the polls just assuming DSK is washed up or are they actually polling for him and coming up with him having no support now?
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big bad fab
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« Reply #388 on: May 18, 2011, 03:16:04 PM »

Who is a person like me supposed to support, anyway? Sarkozy? I don't particularly like him, but I don't think his policies are terrible. Is there any credible right-wing alternative?

Borloo isn't exactly your kind of candidate (too "social"), but if you don't want to vote for Sarkozy that's your best alternative. In the second round, you'd almost certainly vote for Sarkozy (which makes you a HP Grin).

Wait, Franzl is more centrist than myself and Borloo is quite fine for him.

Méhaignerie would be the closest for Franzl Smiley.

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big bad fab
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« Reply #389 on: May 18, 2011, 03:17:40 PM »

Are the polls just assuming DSK is washed up or are they actually polling for him and coming up with him having no support now?

Just read the last 3 pages of this thread.
DSK isn't polled any longer...

The only poll that is related to him is the CSA one, but I haven't posted these numbers: 57% of French people think it's a conspiracy or a manipulation against him...
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big bad fab
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« Reply #390 on: May 18, 2011, 03:29:58 PM »

I hate Aubry because she is an angry and frustrated person and she created a big lie for young people in 1997: "emplois-jeunes", badly paid and uninteresting jobs in public services, a sort of lumpen-proletariate of the State and the local bodies, where they only learn how to work slowly and where the "real" civil servants became used to have these free servants (free as they were paid centrally, not by the local organizations).

Regarding her positioning, which I found very strategic until now (because it was central in the party), it seems that it is changing and that she may be now too much to the left.

I think she has 2 main weaknesses:

- she will be seen as a candidate by default and, what is more, she is more a candidate for Primpe Minister, as if we were in a parliamentarian regime, than a presidential candidate; the current calls by all the apparatchiki for her to decalre her candidacy are ridiculous: "she must be a candidate because she unites the socialists..."; well, they haven't understood the 1962 constitutional reform...

- if she is still far behind Hoŕllande in mid-June, Delanoë may well drop her and enter the race: she has no big troops behind her, she is first secretary only because Fabius, Delanoë and DSK's lieutenants picked her in 2008 to kill Royal.

Hollande is outside the apparatus and the fact that he has never been a minister is even an asset these days...

Her only strength is to be a woman.
Because, one day or the other, medias could be fond just of this idea if there is no other "story" to tell during the campaign.

In that respect, the "normal president" positionong of Hollande is fine against DSK and Sarkozy but may backfire if medias become bored and want something "new".
But it may be too late at that time, as candidacies will be closed the 13th of July.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #391 on: May 18, 2011, 04:07:17 PM »

OK... let me be a hack (only this time):

SEGOLENE 2012!!
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« Reply #392 on: May 18, 2011, 04:52:01 PM »

OK... let me be a hack (only this time):

SEGOLENE 2012!!

If you're not being sarcastic, I agree that she's underrated.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #393 on: May 18, 2011, 07:32:29 PM »

I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #394 on: May 18, 2011, 09:53:09 PM »

I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?

Well, no.

Not guilty leads to normal punishment.
If you plea "guilty", you usually have a deal with the Attorney, in which you plea guilty and the attorney is asking a more lenient sentence, because you cooperated.

In the attorney view, it is better to have no trial with a reduced punishment than than a lenghly and costly trial, which can be very difficult to witnesses, victims and their families and which can fail to convince the jury.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #395 on: May 19, 2011, 02:22:39 AM »
« Edited: May 19, 2011, 02:26:02 AM by big bad fab »

IPSOS polls for Le Monde, Radio France and France Télévisions, 13-14 May and 18 May 2011, samples 948 and 1014

Well, 2 polls in 1, probably because they didn't publish the first one quickly enough and DSK was too fast for them... Tongue

before / after DSK affair:

Arthaud 2 / 2
NPA candidate 1 / 0.5
Mélenchon 6 / 4
Hollande 26 / 29
Hulot 11 / 11
Bayrou 5 / 5
Borloo 8 / 9
Villepin 4 / 3
Sarkozy 19 / 19
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Le Pen 17 / 17

Arthaud 2 / 1
NPA candidate 1 / 0.5
Mélenchon 5 / 4
Aubry 25 / 27
Hulot 9 / 11
Bayrou 6 / 5
Borloo 9 / 9
Villepin 5 / 4
Sarkozy 19 / 21
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Le Pen 18 / 17

Arthaud 2 / 2
NPA candidate 1 / 0.5
Mélenchon 8 / 6
Royal 16 / 16
Hulot 12 / 13
Bayrou 7 / 7
Borloo 11 / 12
Villepin 6 / 6
Sarkozy 19 / 19
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 0.5
Le Pen 17 / 18

So...
this put Royal definitiely out, as leftist voters will decide FIRST on the ability to beat Sarkozy: she is unable to make to the second round.
What is interesting in this hypothesis is that both Hulot and Borloo are dangerous for the socialists.

More seriously, with Hollande and Aubry, things seem to be more classical: right-left fight with something as a "vote utile" here, after DSK affair, especially on the left.
It's clear some people fear that Panzergirl may benefit from DSK affair.

Marion "Marine" Le Pen is still very high and Sarkozy hasn't got rid of her. He is above 20% only against Aubry.

This remains his big problem: he has to play the first round on the right, but the second round will be fought on the centre, as Hulot's and Borloo's good results show it.

Please note that IPSOS is now headed by Teinturier, who was in SOFRES for 2007 elections. So, the same little biases are now noticeable in this poll: a rather better result for the socialist candidate, a rather worse result for the FN.
But the trend between the 2 polls is very interesting of course.

And there is the little surprise, which remains one: some medias have said that these polls showed a... victory of Sarkozy in the second round !!!

Until now, I have only found results from the first round. Maybe they want to have twice more publicity for their poll, so they publish it in 2 parts...
To be continued...
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King
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« Reply #396 on: May 19, 2011, 03:16:11 AM »
« Edited: May 19, 2011, 03:33:55 AM by Dvorak Standard Keyboard »

So, DSK resigned as IMF chief.  I don't know if the forum as a whole is just apathetic on this issue or if I'm really the first one to read this news.  Usually I'm not the first to report breaking announcements like this, on a European politician no less, so I find the lack of an existing discussion frightening.

IMF's Strauss-Kahn resigns amid sex charges

WASHINGTON – Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the embattled managing director of International Monetary Fund, has resigned, saying he wanted to devote "all his energy" to battle the sexual assault charges he faces in New York.

The IMF's executive board released a letter from the French executive Wednesday in which he denied the allegations lodged against him but said that with "sadness" he felt he must resign. He said he was thinking of his family and he wanted to protect the IMF.



Also, the accuser is apparently from Guinea so any possibility of a communicative error in English,which I have heard in several comments to this story, is out the window as she probably spoke fluent French.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #397 on: May 19, 2011, 03:47:06 AM »

I don't know if the forum as a whole is just apathetic on this issue or if I'm really the first one to read this news.
Usually I'm not the first to report breaking announcements like this, on a European politician no less, so I find the lack of an existing discussion frightening.

Maybe because it has its place in International General Discussion board: it's about IMF, not about French politics.
Don't forget the title of this thread Tongue...

My posts on polls and political situation are so isolated... Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #398 on: May 19, 2011, 03:59:47 AM »

So the PS candidates still leads the 1st round, whith an even increased margin. That's reassuring, but it's too early to rejoice.

WTF, Sarkozy winning second round ? Wasn't even Hollande ahead with like 55% ? Huh
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big bad fab
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« Reply #399 on: May 19, 2011, 05:46:48 AM »

I think that many medias (Le Nouvel Obs, Le Point, 20 Minutes,...), this morning, have misread the titles of cables or of the poll itself:
"Sarkozy qualifié pour le 2e tour", "Sarkozy makes it to the second round" in every case
and they have read "Sarkozy winner in the second round".

For the moment, I have no other explanation than stupidity.

Unfortunately, in this sort of cases, it's often the only explanation... Tongue

So, don't be too afraid, Antonio, all is well for the left Wink.

As for me, I'll be glad enough to read that Le Nouvel Obs seems to be more "hollandais" than "aubryste".
I hope Libération won't be too much behind Aubry.

(Le Figaro has just written on Fabius: "well tried, my lords", but nobody will believe them that there is a chance he declares a candidacy Grin too bad ! Wink)
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