France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 19-20 April, sample 926

So here are the complete results:

DSK 30 / Hollande 22 / Aubry 21 / Royal 15
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 23 / 22
Sarkozy 19 / 19 / 20 / 19
Borloo 7 / 8 / 9 / 10
Villepin 3 / 5 / 5 / 6
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Bayrou 4 / 5 / 5 / 7
Hulot 6 / 6 / 5 / 8
Mélenchon 4 / 5 / 5 / 6
Besancenot 4 / 5 / 5 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

So, Borloo deflates Villepin and Bayrou.
Hulot is a bit higher than Joly.
Mélenchon isn't able to go very high.
Besancenot seems a bit weakened, but that may be a bias of Harris.

How fun would it be to see all these candidates just under 5% (the threshold above which the State takes your campaign spendings): Mélenchon, Bayrou, Villepin and especially Besancenot !
How fun !

Borloo is both a problem and a solution for Sarkozy: killing Villepin and Bayrou is unavoidable, but not losing votes is another imperative...

Sarkozy must be praying for another big crisis .

[big bad fab]

Borloo and Hulot in the 5-10 range ? LOL

That's not bad, considering only Marion "Marine" Le Pen has managed to climb above the 10%.

Without Villepin, Borloo would probably be around 10-12.

[big bad fab]

You'll meet so many people who think themselves as not influenced by medias... but who think only based on what they've heard in talkshows

You'll meet so many people who say they don't believe any longer in politicians. Ever. Never... but who jump in the first bandwagon that runs near them (Royal, Sarkozy, Bayrou, Le Pen, Bové, Hulot, Mélenchon, Besancenot, Joly, Borloo...)

[big bad fab]

Were there already any polls showing how much support Marine LePen would get in a run-off against the other candidates ?

For some reason, we haven't had a lot of second round polls for now. Personally, I'd easily see her at 30% against a socialist.

Yeah, there is no need to poll her as the final result would be her defeat.

BUT, considering the current mood and what I suspect to be a use of opinion polls as an escape valve, a release, she may reach something between 35-40%...
Of course, that wouldn't be the results of 2012, but I see many people ready to support her IF the first line of defence is over...
Be careful...

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for Paris-Match and Europe 1, 20-21 April, sample 917

At last, a GREAT poll:

Arthaud 0.5 / 1 / 0.5 / 0.5
Besancenot 4 / 4.5 / 4 / 4
Mélenchon 5 / 4.5 / 4.5 / 6
DSK 27 / Hollande  21 / Aubry 20 / Royal 16
Hulot 7 / 8 / 8.5 / 9
Bayrou 5 / 6 / 6.5 / 6.5
Villepin 4 / 4.5 / 5 / 5
Borloo 7.5 / 8.5 / 9.5 / 11
Sarkozy 20 / 21 / 21.5 / 21
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Le Pen 19 / 20 / 20 / 20

Le Pen is stable on high levels.
Besancenot is now under 5%, ô joie !

Royal is completely out. Aubry isn't a safe candidate for the PS and Hollande is still too risky though on the rise. DSK is the best but now under 30.

Hulot may be a problem for the PS, even if he will be attacked a lot and won't probably be able to survive many articles on his past and on his business relations...

What is most interesting is the fact that centrists are widely spread and reallt don't want Sarkozy. Borloo steals voters from the PS, Bayrou and Villepin. But it seems as if all these voters, probably former Bayrou voters from 2007 don't know where to go.

Sarkozy is a bit higher, but still in the margin of error against Le Pen.

Of course, all polls should be taken with a grain of salt...
Look at this other hypothesis with Joly rather than Hulot: how is Besancenot one point higher and DSK 2 points lower ?

Arthaud 0.5
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5
DSK 25
Joly 5.5
Bayrou 6
Villepin 4
Borloo 8
Sarkozy 21
Dupont-Aignan 1
Le Pen 19

It's amazingly divided... But IFOP has tested another interesting hypothesis: Sarkozy alone in the right. And that's very, very bad for him: he has NO reserves.

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5.5
DSK 30 (logical)
Hulot 8.5
Bayrou 7 (he isn't so much higher)
Sarkozy 22.5 (only 2.5 points of difference !!!)
Le Pen 20.5 (probably Dupont-Aignan voters plus 0.5 from Villepin or Borloo or Sarkozy as some aren't afraid Sarkozy is ousted)

These results are really bad for Sarkozy: he is on his own, whether Villepin manages to be candidate, whether Borloo really wants to be candidate, whether NDA manages to gather 500 signatures.

Of course, he'll think even more that what is his first priority is to kill Le Pen in the 1st round.
But, by doing so, he is playing the PS game, as they aren't so strong; they win just because Sarkozy is weak (except DSK who has a small(er) personal advantage).

Still this double negative momentum, this vicious circle in which he is trapped and about which we've already discussed.
He really need a game change (and something more than Carla's hypothetic pregnancy ).

This is not very good either for the PS as, without a divided field on the left, well, Marion "Marine" Le Pen is even higher and so, without DSK, they may not avoid another 21st April so easily.

Sure, with the support of Canal + and Libération, Villepin will probably be candidate , but still...


And this is not finished, as we've got 2nd round numbers too ! You've asked for them ...

DSK - Sarkozy 61 - 39 (LOL)
Hollande - Sarkozy 56 - 44 (out of the MoE)
Aubry - Sarkozy 55 - 45 (out of the MoE)
Royal - Sarkozy 51 - 49 (until then, this was the only candidate Sarkozy has manged to beat...)

Please note that 64% of Borloo voters pick DSK, 46% of them pick Hollande and even 39% of them pick Aubry...
Sarkozy has really lost the former UDF voters...

Sarkozy - Le Pen 73 - 27 (which is better for Panzergirl than for Daddy in 2002)

DSK - Le Pen 75- 25
Hollande - Le Pen 72 - 28
Aubry - Le Pen 69 - 31

No Royal-Le Pen, but, considering Aubry is "only" at 69 %, we can assume Royal is at 65%, at most.

[big bad fab]

Compared with other polls, Sarkozy is around 3-4 points up. Statistical noise or is he really gaining ground ?

This is IFOP, not Harris Interactive.
And there is the fact that Sarkozy has probably bounced a slightly bit since one month.
And it's not really 3-4: rather 2 at most.

Now that the fight is beginning inside the PS, expect Sarkozy to climb at 22-23, with DSK being lowered as he'll nearing the arena.

Sarkozy is structurally weak and should lose this.
But the PS isn't very high and the political scene is utterly crowded and divided, this is amazing.
It's fine to have a primary, but it won't prevent Mélenchon, a Green, Bayrou, Besancenot to be candidates...

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for BFM-TV, RMC and 20 Minutes, 26 April, sample 1010

DSK 26 / 27 / 27 / 28
Sarkozy 21 / 22 / 21 / 23
Le Pen 20 / 19 / 19 / 19
Hulot 9 / 9 / 8 / 9
Borloo 4 / - / 8 / -
Villepin 4 / 5 / - / -
Bayrou 5 / 7 / 6 / 8
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 5
Besancenot 4 / 4 / 4 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 2

Borloo steals more to Bayrou than Villepin. Both of them steals to DSK, Sarkozy and Bayrou.
But it appears that Hulot is now the strong man of this vast central zone.

Borloo is really disappointing in this poll, compared to the IFOP one.
Hulot is now at 9, i.e. he coalesces Greens and many centrists.

Sarkozy has gained 3-4 points since the previous CSA poll.
But Le Pen remains very high and he is not so strong.

DSK is weaker, being now clearly under 30.
And, what is more, he may be threatened by one "centrist" or another.

Besancenot seems to have, at last, decreased: IFOP and CSA put him at 4.

The PS should really be careful, as war is on between DSK and Hollande supporters (with Aubry surprisingly "protecting" Hollande, whom she hates: is she trying to use him to weaken DSK and then appear as a compromise solution ?).
As I've said before, the moment DSK is candidate, he will be seen as the socialist candidate and will lose 2-4 points among moderate voters.
The threat of another 21st of April isn't over.

But, of course, if the socialist candidate is able to make it to the second round, it's over for Sarkozy, as he is hated by so many people.

Now that Sarkozy is a bit up, paradoxically, there will be less whispers about another candidate on the right. BUT, precisely, if the right is up, she should Fillon or Juppé in order to have a small chance against DSK or Hollande...

[big bad fab]

So, from next week, polls will systematically include
Jean-Louis Borloo, because he has announced that the venerable Radical Party, will quit the UMP (it was an "associate" member),
and
Nicolas Hulot, because he will declare on Thursday,
as candidates.

As they are already forced to poll at least 3 options, with DSK, Aubry, Hollande, they won't lose time and money to poll 6 options with Hulot AND Joly or 12 options with AND without Borloo.

As a consequence, even if the situation is hypothetically better for Sarkozy, it will be bad for him, all the more that poll firms seem to be stuck to keep Villepin.

It won't be good for the Greens, as the 1 or 2 points Hulot is able to win on Bayrou or on the right, he will lose them towards the socialist. Worse, Borloo may be able to lessen their media impact, as Hulot but also Borloo are media favourites/puppies.

On the other hand, I'm not sure it'll be bad for DSK or Hollande, as Borloo and Hulot have already been tested, without much consequence for them.

Another collateral victim will probably be Bayrou (1 or 2 points are vital at this level...).

So, I was right for Bayrou, but I was wrong about the fact that some Greens would go to the socialist because they dislike Hulot.
There aren't so many apparatchiki of the Greens in poll samples , so Hulot is indeed "bad" for Borloo and Bayrou, but also for the socialist candidate.

Some angry voters from the mainstream right, who had fled directly to DSK (and to him alone), have probably come back, which explains a small rebound for Sarkozy.

Everything is very fluid.

Borloo's moment is already over, as many Radical bigwigs (Léonetti) won't follow him outside the UMP (nor centrist UMPers, like Méhaignerie and Daubresse).
Basically, Borloo will just be NC+Parti Radical potential candidate. Already, Morin isn't tested any longer in polls. But that's the only difference...

Hulot's moment is now but won't last long. Expect socialists and leftist Greens to fire at him through "independent" medias (Mediapart, Rue89, Le Post, Slate,...) if they see Hulot reaching 10%.

We are now probably entering a moment when the PS is back to the frontpage. If there are some polls on PS primaries with Hollande threatening DSK and with Hamon tested, expect some big surprises from medias' storytellers.

One big month before DSK is almost officially in... This will be excruciating for the Saviour's supporters .

[big bad fab]

So Sarkozy is really up... For visiting a couple of factories and promising a 1000€ gift to a handful of people ?

As I've said, stupidity shouldn't surprise me anymore at this point. But...

I don't rethink his rebound is linked to these small facts.
I think some angry mainstream right voters who answered "DSK" or even "Le Pen" in March-April are now a bit more relaxed and a bit more aware of the threat of a reverse 21st of April and so have come back to Sarkozy.

But, well, even being at 21-23 for the Great Leader of the right isn't exactly what we can call a huge achievement...
(when Chirac was at 19, it was because there was another big candidate, Giscard, Barre, Balladur, or because he was just lucky to have Jospin even lower...)

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for Paris-Match and Europe 1, 20-21 April, sample 917

Arthaud 0.5
Besancenot 4
Mélenchon 5
DSK 27
Hulot 7
Bayrou 5
Villepin 4
Borloo 7.5
Sarkozy 20
Dupont-Aignan 1
Le Pen 19

IFOP has tested another interesting hypothesis: Sarkozy alone in the right. And that's very, very bad for him: he has NO reserves.

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5.5
DSK 30 (logical)
Hulot 8.5
Bayrou 7 (he isn't so much higher)
Sarkozy 22.5 (only 2.5 points of difference !!!)
Le Pen 20.5 (probably Dupont-Aignan voters plus 0.5 from Villepin or Borloo or Sarkozy as some aren't afraid Sarkozy is ousted)

Bayrou gains 2 points, Hulot 1.5, DSK 3, Mélenchon 0.5, Besancenot 1
and Sarkozy only 2.5 ...

[big bad fab]

Nobody has checked opinion polls this past week ?

Anyway, I'll do it in the next 2 days.

Isn't there a lasting little momentum towards Hollande ?
He may really finished as ideally positioned if Aubry isn't a candidate...

[big bad fab]

LH2 poll for Yahoo!, 6-7 May 2011, sample 970

Another bad news for Sarkozy, but not so good news for socialists.
Other mushrooming names: Hulot and Borloo.

It's not like we haven't anticipated it, but French people are really globally stupid.
Another evidence ? Besancenot is no longer candidate and so NPA support vanishes... don't tell me these people are now intending to vote for Hulot or Borloo or Chevènement .

Arthaud 1 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Mélenchon 4 / 4 / 4 / 6
Chevènement 3 / 2 / 2 / 2
DSK 23 / Aubry 22 / Hollande 21.5 / Royal 15
Hulot 11 / 11 / 11 / 13.5
Bayrou 8 / 7 / 7 / 8
Borloo 9 / 11 / 10 / 11
Villepin 6 / 4.5 / 5 / 5
Sarkozy 16 / 19 / 19 / 20
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Le Pen 17 / 17 / 18 / 17

So, it's a negative hypothesis for Sarkozy, of course, as there are both Villepin and Borloo. But it's not unrealistic.
Le Pen is still high though a bit less.
Royal is definitely a too weak candidate.

BUT the great news is that DSK bonus seems to have vanished.
Hollande doesn't seem stronger than Aubry in the 1st round, but he is better in the second one.

DSK-Sarkozy 65-35
Aubry-Sarkozy 56-44
Hollande-Sarkozy 60-40

DSK-Le Pen 77-23
Aubry-Le Pen 71-29
Hollande-Le Pen 76-24
Sarkozy-Le Pen 74-26

We are really at the crossroads for the socialists. DSK is threatened. Aubry has still a big chance because she is the first secretary and she can rally both the left (Hamon) and more moderate figures (Delanoë), but she seems to have dropped. Hollande is on the rise, but still not enough.
If Hollande manages to come ahead of DSK, you'll see a big change in the momentum and in the media story...

Sarkozy is weak, but Borloo wouldn't be able to have so high numbers in a real campaign and, of course, Hulot steals votes from both sides (though probably more to DSK than to Sarkozy).

Please note that DSK's fall is due to voters from Borloo, Hulot, Bayrou and Villepin going back to their "hero" (of the moment).

Chevènement is tested for the first time and seems to take 1 point from Mélenchon.

Another hypothesis tested is with Joly:
Arthaud 1
NPA candidate 0.5
Mélenchon 5
Chevènement 1
DSK 24
Joly 9 (her best result !!! how ironic now that Hulot is ahead !)
Bayrou 8
Borloo 9
Villepin 5.5
Sarkozy 18
Dupont-Aignan 1
Le Pen 18

The important differences between Joly and Hulot tests should of course lead us to take this poll with a big grain of salt (or to be convinced that French voters are definitely too stupid for a presidential system )

Eventually, Bayrou seems to be up again, though Borloo is now above him.

Really a very fluid situation, much is now at stake for the centres and for the socialists.

Who will really emerge in the big centre ? Hulot, Borloo, Bayrou ?
Who will win between DSK and Hollande ?

[big bad fab]

BUT the great horrible news is that DSK bonus seems to have vanished.

Fixed.

FTR, "great" on my keyboard was really neutral .

Well, it's really the first poll that shows this.
LH2 isn't a great pollster, but we've also said it about Harris Interactive, and their first !!!OMG!!! poll was quite accurate after all...

I think I'm going to create a tracker, to try to figure out where the momentum is.

[big bad fab]

So what's this "Porschegate"?

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.

Leftist new medias (Mediapart, Rue89, Slate, Le Post,... with their old predecessor Le Canard Enchaîné) tend to think socialist leaders don't have the right to be wealthy...

[big bad fab]

This is one year before the election. Let's begin the 2012 Big Bad Tracker !

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly.

I'll keep 3 trackers with DSK, Aubry and Hollande, until the scene is clearer. But I'll compute an aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate, including, at the moment, 0.6 DSK, 0.3 Hollande and 0.1 Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate (this ponderation will change quickly and periodically).

Besancenot isn't candidate any longer so, for the moment, there is an anonymous NPA candidate.

I'll publish this tracker every Monday (I'll see in September if I need to publish it more often).

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and will lose a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...


9 May DSK sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,90
NPA   3,19
Mélenchon   4,47
Chevènement   0,90
DSK   26,19
Hulot   8,54
Bayrou   5,67
Borloo   6,84
Villepin   4,46
Sarkozy   18,77
Dupont-Aignan   1,00
Le Pen   19,07


9 May Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,64
NPA   3,12
Mélenchon   4,41
Chevènement   0,82
Aubry   21,26
Hulot   8,55
Bayrou   6,23
Borloo   9,83
Villepin   4,88
Sarkozy   19,96
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Le Pen   19,59


9 May Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,79
NPA   3,14
Mélenchon   4,43
Chevènement   0,86
Hollande   21,50
Hulot   8,71
Bayrou   6,14
Borloo   9,00
Villepin   4,86
Sarkozy   19,57
Dupont-Aignan   1,00
Le Pen   20,00


9 May generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,8
NPA   3,2
Mélenchon   4,4
Chevènement   0,9
PS   24,2
Hulot   8,6
Bayrou   5,9
Borloo   8,0
Villepin   4,6
Sarkozy   19,2
Dupont-Aignan   1,0
Le Pen   19,3

Antonio, I'll let you draw a fine graph.
With 3 weeks behind, you'll be able to start it.

[big bad fab]

Fivethirtyeight, french version !

I'll try to build some nice graph with a trendline when we have some more data. Maybe your methodology isn't 100% scientific, but it makes enough sense.

Let's say a French version of RealClearPolitics... more accurate, both politically and scientifically ...

It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.

Oh, oh, it seems you're already taken by the heat of the campaign, Antonio... Believe, it's psychologically very hard to see bad periods for your champion, but you have to live with them until the second round ....

Each time Sarkozy was under Royal in 2007, it was excruciating... Well, it was Sarkozy, BUT it was Royal .

[big bad fab]

ViaVoice poll for Libération, 11-25 April, sample 411 LV among 800 considering themselves from the "left" among a total sample of 2680

Wishes of victory in the socialist primary:

DSK 39
Hollande 20
Royal 11
Montebourg 5
Valls 2
other 7 (I really wonder which ones... Pierret ? )
don't know 16

Hollande 29
Aubry 23
Royal 13
Montebourg 5
Valls 3
other 11
don't know 16

This poll has been made "a long time ago", so take it with a grain of salt, though DSK is still clearly ahead.
Hollande is really competitive against Aubry and in a second round, he is now able to beat her, I think.

What is surprising is the numbers of those answering "another candidate"... But I shouldn't be surprised as many "likely voters in the socialist primary" doesn't even know who was Mitterrand...

[big bad fab]

TNS-Sofres poll for Canal +, 3-4 May 2011, sample 975

Yeah, let's publish this one too, though we don't even know how much socialists there are in the sample and though primary candidates or possible candidates have an advantage over other big ones (Fabius, Delanoë, who are probably both closer to Mitterrand, at least in their political methods).

Who is the closest to Mitterrand "in his ideas and proposals" ? (don't ask me to whom "his" refers...)

among the whole sample / among socialists:

Hollande 18 / 23
DSK 16 / 20
Aubry 13 / 18
Royal 9 / 10
Fabius 8 / 6
Delanoë 5 / 7
Valls 2 / 1
Montebourg 1 / 1
Hamon 1 / 0
don't know+ no one 27 / 14

This poll has allowed Hollande to gain some favourable noise in medias.

[big bad fab]

2 other useless polls, considering I'm not so sure Fabius or Jospin still mean something to many French people... and considering questions and how they are read or heard have of course a great influence.

IFOP poll, for France-Soir, 3-5 May 2011, sample 1042

Who is the most faithful heir of Mitterrand ?
(among the whole sample / among socialists - number unknown, BTW)

DSK 22 / 27
Hollande 19 / 22
Jospin 19 / 20
Aubry 9 / 18
Lang 14 / 6
Fabius 10 / 4
Royal 8 / 8


BVA poll, for 20 Minutes, 6-7 May 2011, sample 1010

Who is the most like Mitterrand ?
(among the whole sample / among voters from the left)

Hollande 32 / 27
DSK 30 / 28
Aubry 18 / 20
Royal 12 / 10

(limited list)

[big bad fab]

Harris Interactive poll, for LCP-AN, 6-9 May 2011, sample 1624 (but Internet poll)

Another one... Pollsters should really thank Mitterrand...

"Who embodies Mitterrand's heritage in the best way ?"
(among the whole sample / among voters from the left / among former Mitterrand voters !)

None 44 / 34 / 30
Hollande 15 / 24 / 26
DSK 14 / 15 / 15
Aubry 10 / 13 / 16
Royal 5 / 8 / 6
Montebourg 2 / 4 / 3
Valls 2 / 0 / 1
don't know 8 / 2 / 2

Fabius, Jospin, Delanoë, Lang, etc. weren't tested.

All this phase of "history rewriting" (Mitterrand was a master in this "art"...) seems to be globally neutral, as people essentially answers to another question (which is your favourite candidate ?)...
But, in detail, it's slightly positive for Hollande, because of the media noise and because it's another small piece feeding his momentum.

Though, in 2 weeks, all of this will have been forgotten .

[big bad fab]

LH2 poll, for Le Nouvel Observateur, 6-7 May 2011, sample 970

Le Nouvel Obs has money to waste, it seems...
All the more that they haven't proposed another possible answer: in late May-early June, just after the G8.

Anyway...

When DSK should be officially candidate ?
(among the whole sample / among voters from the left / among self-proclaimed socialists)

Now 26 / 27 / 32
In late June, when the period is officially opened 37 / 43 / 44
In the autumn (WTF ? candidacies are closed on the 13th of July !)) 19 / 16 / 15
don't know 18 / 14 / 9

DSK should resign, to show his interest for the presidential election 43 / 45 / 44
DSK should stay in the IMF for the moment, it's an important post 46 / 45 / 49

Pundits in LH2 are able to draw many clever conclusions from these numbers...
When questions are stupid, when people answer contradictory things, as for me, I'm unable to say anything .

[big bad fab]

I wish DSK would just say whether he's running or not already, as this will-he-or-won't-he speculation is making his poll numbers fall. 

Yeah, I feel the same way of course... I don't know what strategy he's following by constantly delaying his announcement, but it doesn't seem to be working.

He wants to be seen as a "great among the greats" in Deauville and maybe a bit later.

All the buzz around cars, flats, houses, etc. may eventually be a good thing for him because it's occurring NOW: better sooner rather than later...

[big bad fab]

Of course, in France, sex-related scandals don't usually have any influence.
But this is a little bit different, as it's not just betraying his wife, it might be a sexual aggression.
Our society is so perverse and the media world is so corrupting and so many people now know how to use it for their own advantage (when you're a "victim", you can "write" a book, sell your story for TV biopics, etc.) that I can't believe it's true.
Maybe the woman knew his past of divorces and mistresses make her story easier to believe.

But this "story" is now all around French medias. Goebbels is always proved right nowadays.

What is more, Libération has already written an Internet column saying this is over for him... "A huge waste"...
That makes me say that DSK is attacked not from the right, but from the left and the far-left.
And Aubry will try to benefit from it, that's what I find worrying.

What I find disgusting is that the same who tried to protect this piece of crap of Assante (and piece of crap not because he is so-called sexually harrassed some girl) are now so hungry to finish DSK off...

I don't see how DSK will be able to save his image and his good polls.
His strategy was to stay in the IMF until at least the end of May or even the end of June, to burnish his international image.
Well, even the IMF is over for him, now.

I'm a UMP-PCD member, but I'm sad today.
The problem is that, in our media system, we can't believe anything from anyone any longer....
(of course, if it's true, it's disgusting, but it's not, it's equally disgusting)


I really hope Hollande will be the winner now, and not these stupid Aubry and Hamon.
But it happens a bit too early for Hollande: he has the momentum but not enough to be sure to trounce Aubry.
And DSK followers are really angry those days at Hollande.
There is a risk of "anybody but Hollande" right now.

Royal will think she has chances again. And she wants to kill her "old sweety François".
DSK followers are, for some of them, less social-democrat than Hollande himself and will join Aubry more easily.
The left of the party will be very happy.
And Aubry will say: "now, this is the party's superior interest which is at stake, let's have its first secretary be candidate..."
And she was the only one to talk with DSK by phone every week, remember ?

And what about Fabius ?

[big bad fab]

Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.

[big bad fab]

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin ).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).