France 2012: the official thread

[Iannis]

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a .ng good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose.

Idiot.

Idiot. You may be glad with what happened in Norway, probably. People like you really suck. I'm sorry to be that clear, but that's the truth. See what happened in Norway. There're some radicals who believe socialists are muslims and will do whatever they can to "stop" them.

Has anyone said that Aubry and socialists should be killed? Is it permitted to be, let's say, "radical" complaining of a multicultural society or muslim influence and presence without thinking of slaughters and without being blamed of sympathy with Breivik? I hope, because freddom of speech is important, and at the same time I wouldn't like to see anti-americanists, anti-israeli movements to be accused to be Al Qaeda supporters, for instance.

[Niemeyerite]

Has anyone said that Aubry and socialists should be killed? Is it permitted to be, let's say, "radical" complaining of a multicultural society or muslim influence and presence without thinking of slaughters and without being blamed of sympathy with Breivik? I hope, because freddom of speech is important, and at the same time I wouldn't like to see anti-americanists, anti-israeli movements to be accused to be Al Qaeda supporters, for instance.

he's not saying we should kill socialists. But a radical who reads "aubry has connections with the Islam" may think he must do anything to save France from the muslims.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, I expected to see Sarko higher this week. But it's true there has been only one poll...


It will be atrocious to wait until September...

[Хahar 🤔]

Has anyone said that Aubry and socialists should be killed? Is it permitted to be, let's say, "radical" complaining of a multicultural society or muslim influence and presence without thinking of slaughters and without being blamed of sympathy with Breivik? I hope, because freddom of speech is important, and at the same time I wouldn't like to see anti-americanists, anti-israeli movements to be accused to be Al Qaeda supporters, for instance.

It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here.

[MaxQue]

Has anyone said that Aubry and socialists should be killed? Is it permitted to be, let's say, "radical" complaining of a multicultural society or muslim influence and presence without thinking of slaughters and without being blamed of sympathy with Breivik? I hope, because freddom of speech is important, and at the same time I wouldn't like to see anti-americanists, anti-israeli movements to be accused to be Al Qaeda supporters, for instance.

I invite you to read the rules of the "International Elections" board. They are slighly different of the general rules. Time showed than those rules needed, to keep an agreeable atmosphere on this board.

[Foucaulf]

Going back to French politics, I have been thinking a lot about this article in which Hollande warns of the PS "disappearing" if it does not win the Presidency.

I'm not sure if he's being hyperbolic here. From what I know of North America, political parties here alternate between long spells of power and opposition, but survives so long as they don't collapse after greatly extending their stay. In France power is obviously concentrated in the President, but is the opposition really stripped of all power past the five-year elections? Or is it that the party will tear itself up and leave the left bickering amongst itself, like what it was before Mitterrand?

[big bad fab]

Going back to French politics, I have been thinking a lot about this article in which Hollande warns of the PS "disappearing" if it does not win the Presidency.

I'm not sure if he's being hyperbolic here. From what I know of North America, political parties here alternate between long spells of power and opposition, but survives so long as they don't collapse after greatly extending their stay. In France power is obviously concentrated in the President, but is the opposition really stripped of all power past the five-year elections? Or is it that the party will tear itself up and leave the left bickering amongst itself, like what it was before Mitterrand?

Nowadays, a great party doesn't disappear so quickly in France, for one big reason: money.
Public money is given to the party based on his electoral results, especially in the legislative elections that follow the presidential one.
So, harsh bickering inside the party, yes, complete explosion, no.

Oh, sure, some loonies like Royal or complete outsiders like Valls or Gérard Collomb could leave the party, but that's all.
Remember the great success of Chevènement creating his own party ?
Remember the great success of Bockel creating his own party ? Without Sarkozy giving him a portfolio, he'd be nothing, and without Bockel taking profit from Borloo's noises, he'd again be nothing now.
See the great success of Mélenchon outside the party ? Yes he has some support, but what is his added value to the PCF ? 3% at most, in the good days.

Conversely, look at how it's difficult for some centrists (Méhaignerie and even Daubresse, though a Borloo's friend) or radicals (Léonetti) to leave the UMP.
Even weakened the UMP won't explode either. Some small parties may appear close to him, but that's all.

Only someone who would be extraordinarily popular outside the parties may provoke a big one to disappear. I see nobody like this and I think the times aren't for a de Gaulle any longer.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fab is right, established parties rarely die out in the French political system. There will always be a support for one of the two big one by people who fear the other could win. Add to that the fact that, after being in opposition for 10 year, the PS dominates as never before the sub-national entities (holding nearly every big city, over 60/100 departements and 21/22 regions ; hell, it might even take the Senate, for the first time ever !).


The point is not whether Umengus supports Breivik or not, I don't see why this was even brought. The point is that his statement is utterly false and only based on nasty rumours.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There will always be a party in France that is rooted in a left-wing interpretation of France's Republican traditions and has few organic links to traditional working class politics outside a couple of random areas here and there, but which is nonetheless a member of the SI and which combines unusually radical rhetoric for an SI party with very timid policies (though which will occasionally implement something very radical; but, alas, that policy will either be disastrous or will not work towards its intended goal). And now that Communism is dead as a political movement, it will always be the largest party on the Left by default. It is impossible to imagine French politics (or even France) without it. Does it matter whether it's called SFIO, PS or something else? Hollande is just being over-dramatic because he's taken a hit recently.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fab is right, established parties rarely die out in the French political system. There will always be a support for one of the two big one by people who fear the other could win. Add to that the fact that, after being in opposition for 10 year, the PS dominates as never before the sub-national entities (holding nearly every big city, over 60/100 departements and 21/22 regions ; hell, it might even take the Senate, for the first time ever !).

Yeah, it's become a local government party again. Except that local government in France actually has a few teeth now and there isn't a large rival local government party on the Left these days.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quite so. We could do without that kind of post here, frankly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just a couple of posts have been deleted and a few more modified (mainly to remove quotes). It would be for the best if this particular discussed ceased, I think. Will also note that Umengus's deleted post included a vehement denial of sympathy with Breivik. Seems fair to let that point stand for the record.

---

Moving on now...

[big bad fab]

As for Hollande's interview, I think it's a mistake from him.
Of course, he hasn't said exactly what medias are reporting (as usual... see Fillon's speech on Joly...) (Hollande talked about a "risk" of disappearing, not that it will disappear if it loses), but the word "disappearing" won't please the socialist base.
Fortunately for him, it's late in July... and nobody is listening.

Baylet is saying that Harlem Désir, interim first secretary of the PS, hasn't understood that the primary is a left one, not a socialist one.
Baylet isn't invited to PS summer "univeristy" in La Rochelle...
I don't think Baylet will have a great impact. If he is candidate until the vote... A big "if", I think, as his only aim seems to make a lil' mess to negotiate as many constituencies as possible from the PS. Yeah, remember that the Greens are ambitious now and that Mélenchon is far more difficult to please than the old PCF apparatus... So, the PRG faces a huge competition from the rest of the left...
And if Baylet keeps campaigning until the first round of the primaries, he'll probably steal 1 or 2 points from Hollande, which isn't good news for the latter, as the results may well be in a very narrow margin.

[Math]

It will be atrocious to wait until September...

It seems Ifop will release a poll next tuesday, but I don't know if it will concern the primaries or the presidential election itself.

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 21-29 July 2011, 565 self-declared socialists among 1093 self-declared leftists among a whole sample of 1956

Among leftists/among socialists
Hollande 42 / 48
Aubry 34 / 36
Royal 13 / 9
Valls 4 / 2
Montebourg 4 / 2
Baylet 1 / 1
none of them 2 / 2

Roughly, we are back to the situation immediately after DSK fell and when Hollande became the favourite. This is good news for Hollande as Aubry hasn't surged very long.
But maybe it's again too early for Hollande to re-surge .

Second round:
Hollande 55 / 58
Aubry 45 / 52

Among leftists, it's the highest result ever of Hollande. Among socialists, it's back to the period just before Aubry's candidacy.
Good news for Hollande again, especially as he is still higher among socialists than among the whole left: socialists are likelier to vote.


Sorry for the tracker, but I'm really on holiday, so it'll come when I'm bored .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wednesday and still no tracker... Shame on you, Fab !

[big bad fab]

Wednesday and still no tracker... Shame on you, Fab !

I'm not really pushed by the tempo of your graphs .
Well, I was riding this morning and I'm going to swim this afternoon and it was one of my son's birthday at lunchtime: I'm really busy, you know .

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #13 - 1 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

1 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,12
Poutou   0,67
Mélenchon   5,13
Chevènement   0,41
Aubry   26,31
Joly   6,19
Bayrou   7,04
Borloo   8,14
Villepin   3,01
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,55
Sarkozy   23,49
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Le Pen   17,36
      

      

1 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,11
Poutou   0,44
Mélenchon   5,14
Chevènement   0,28
Hollande   28,50
Joly   6,25
Bayrou   6,67
Borloo   7,99
Villepin   2,86
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,53
Sarkozy   22,95
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Le Pen   16,69

      

      

1 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,11
Poutou   0,53
Mélenchon   5,14
Chevènement   0,33
PS   27,62
Joly   6,22
Bayrou   6,82
Borloo   8,05
Villepin   2,92
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,54
Sarkozy   23,16
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Le Pen   16,96




No big change, with no new poll.

The only slightly significant move is from Le Pen to Sarkozy.

Basically, we are close to the 1988 result, with Barre's electorate split between Borloo, Villepin and Bayrou.
And, of course, the problem for Sarkozy is that HE is the incumbent...

And here is the tracker for 2nd round hypotheses, from the 13th of June to the 1st of August:

Aubry   57,75   57,76   57,79   57,86   58,00   58,00   55,08   54,99
Sarkozy   42,25   42,24   42,21   42,14   42,00   42,00   44,92   45,01

Hollande   59,97   59,98   59,98   59,99   60,00   58,00   57,42   57,40
Sarkozy   40,03   40,02   40,02   40,01   40,00   42,00   42,58   42,60

Beware, though, we have only 5 polls on second rounds on the entire period...

[Antonio the Sixth]

If you update it at due time next Monday, you'll get the monthly graph.

[Antonio the Sixth]

[big bad fab]

Too sunny around here...

BTW, you haven't waited for midnight (CET)

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #14 - 8 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

8 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,10
Poutou   0,63
Mélenchon   5,00
Chevènement   0,44
Aubry   26,23
Joly   6,13
Bayrou   7,11
Borloo   8,10
Villepin   2,93
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,58
Sarkozy   23,69
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Le Pen   17,45
      

      

8 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,08
Poutou   0,39
Mélenchon   5,02
Chevènement   0,30
Hollande   28,38
Joly   6,20
Bayrou   6,75
Borloo   7,98
Villepin   2,83
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,56
Sarkozy   23,11
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Le Pen   16,80


      

      

8 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,09
Poutou   0,49
Mélenchon   5,01
Chevènement   0,36
PS   27,52
Joly   6,17
Bayrou   6,89
Borloo   8,03
Villepin   2,87
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,57
Sarkozy   23,34
Dupont-Aignan   0,60
Le Pen   17,06





No big change, with no new poll.

Le Pen slightly on the rise again, but she is now far below Sarkozy who is almost in good shape in comparison to his popularity ratings.

Still a 2 points difference between Hollande and Aubry: the PS should really think about this: it's pretty stable and it's also the case in the second round.


23 minutes late, Antonio: be merciful, O Good Lord !

[big bad fab]

BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, it could have been worse. Let me the time to update everything, and I'll give you the graphs...

BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

I've lost all hope in Obama and in democrats after the debt "deal" (once again giving up everything to the crazies). These guys don't represent what I stand for, they're just the GOP's useful idiots. The green party is useless, but at least somewhat matches my political views.

I, on the other hand, still don't get why you wear the avatar of a bunch of brainless, bigoted hacks who would gladly screw their country just to piss off Obama.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As promised !

Aubry :


Hollande :



Clearly one is stronger as the other, but apart from Sarko and the PS candidates the variations seem mostly statistical noise.

[big bad fab]

Well, it could have been worse. Let me the time to update everything, and I'll give you the graphs...

BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

I've lost all hope in Obama and in democrats after the debt "deal" (once again giving up everything to the crazies). These guys don't represent what I stand for, they're just the GOP's useful idiots. The green party is useless, but at least somewhat matches my political views.

I, on the other hand, still don't get why you wear the avatar of a bunch of brainless, bigoted hacks who would gladly screw their country just to piss off Obama.

Ah yes... we've both forgotten that my blue avatar is French and your red one was American !!!

You know that I'm closer to Lieberman, Clark, Nunn or Warner or even Gore.
I could vote for Romney, but I'm sure that, in 2008, I'd have voted for Obama (because of Palin) and note for the Mac...

No, don't worry, I'm not a tea-partier ! (and Boutin isn't a tea-partier either ).