France 2012: the official thread

[Hash]

I know that there used to be two relatively strong Trotskyist parties, but one of them joined the new Parti de Gauche, I think.
And what is the "Parti de Gauche" like at all? Who supports the party? And how are the relations between the PdG and the PCF? I remember that they "united" their lists in the regional elections 2010 in a few regions, right?

And will all of the parties on the left of the PS run their own candidates, or is there some ambition to field a candidate supported by several parties?

Thanks in advance.

The PG is basically a personalist outfit run by Mélenchon with hardly anybody of note in there except maybe ex-Green deputy Martine Billard who nobody cares about anyways. The only reason it exists is because Mélenchon has charisma and because the PCF props it up as an ally. It is ironic that the PCF is responsible for the PG's continued existence as a serious party, yet in some way the PG is emerging as the strongest force of the FG against the PCF thanks to Mélenchon being a charismatic figure and all. The PCF Politburo has endorsed Mélenchon's candidacy because he is their only guarantee for a good result, which in turn increases the PCF's worth to the PS' eyes and allows them to whore themselves to the PS to get a deal for the legislative elections. The PCF Politburo knows they couldn't do so without him, because their leader Pierre Laurent is a boring Kremlin apparatchik who would run the party into the ground if he ran himself. Though the Orthodox wing of the PCF doesn't like Mélenchon because they fear he will sabotage the party and take it all over (which is quite possible, of course). But most Orthodoxes in the PCF are raving mad anyways.

The trots are divided between the NPA - Besancenot's stupid party and the old LO - which is waiting for the Second Coming of Leon Trotsky. The NPA might have done well in 2009, but Besancenot ran the party into the ground by acting like an entitled douche and running his party like the CPSU. His refusal to enter any alliance with the parliamentary left has also doomed him, and led to the scission of Christian Picquet's GU faction which integrated the FG. His decision not to run will further run the NPA into the ground and reduce the French Trots, quite strong since '95 or so, to their 60s-70s pitiful state. Meanwhile, the LO has lost its historic leader and is now led by her young clone, Nathalie Arthaud, who is a boring stale, unfunny joke who appears on telly every now and then to talk about the revolution and defending les travailleurs, travailleuses.

[big bad fab]

NPA was said to go beyond the old LCR (Krivine's and Besancenot's party), but is now basically reduced to Krivine's old results.
LCR was more or less a "68" trotskyism, from young students who wanted to have an ideological reference to pin on their "bobo" and postmodern rebellion (some others became so-called Maoïsts, others "situationnistes" and some others just Greens).

LO was more a real trotskyite party, though the most loyal to IVth Internationale's ideas was the PCI of Lambert (Boussel was his real name) and then Gluckstein.
LO had good results only because Laguiller eventually did well on TV. It was the same for Besancenot.

LO will have Nathalie Arthaud, a teacher, as a presidential candidate. NPA will have Philippe Poutou, a trade-unionist worker. Both are in fact unoriginal far-leftists, not at all trotskyists.

The PG also gained some former supporters of Chevènement (François Autain, senator) and some trade-unionists (Claude Debons, from the CFDT's left), but not much, and a minority of former LCR which push the idea of unity of all trends at the left of the PS (it was the "unitaire" wing of LCR around Christian Picquet). Let's add also that Martine Billard, a former Green deputy from Paris has joined the PG.
But Mélenchon has been unable to rally the whole movement of Chevènement, or "red-greens" like Clémentine Autain, or the whole left of the PS (of course not in the case of Emmanuelli and Hamon, but even not Quilès or Lienemann).

Mélenchon will be the candidate of the PG and the PCF, and the whole FG.

The former "lambertiste" PCI, now POI, will probably try to have again Gérard Schivardi as a presidential candidate (though gathering 500 signatures from mayors will be very hard). But again, it's more now a "classical" far-leftist movement, against economic liberalism, against globalization, against the USA, against the EU, etc. Nothing fundamentally trostkyist is left here.

As usual, everybody talks about "unity", but nobody really wants it if it means no candidate from their own party... LO has always been completely and fiercely independent. The POI too.
Besancenot, despite his image, has never really tried to be unitarian.
And Mélenchon is too megalomaniac to drop.

So, Arthaud, Poutou and Mélenchon for sure.
Maybe Schivardi too.

We may also say that the Greens (Europe Ecologie more widely) have now a candidate, Eva Joly, who is arguably at the left of the PS (or of many of its members), especially if Hollande wins the PS primary (which should be in fact a left primary).

[big bad fab]

Oops, I was typing while Hash was typing too... Well, you've got more answers for free .

[minionofmidas]

So, DSK back in?

[big bad fab]

So, DSK back in?

Nope. Candidacies for the PS primary are closed.
And I don't think that any candidate would want a support or advice from him.
And when they are back to power in May 2012 after 10 years of frustration, there will be so many people to reward with ministerial portfolios, inside the PS and outside it, that DSK won't be welcome.

Though Aubry has said that she salutes him "affectionately".
Which is quite risky, if I may write such a stupid joke .
To be serious, maybe Aubry is more enthusiastic in her reaction because she fears that DSK may well disturb her more than Hollande, because Hollande was already candidate before the 14th of May, Day of Infamy, and because the biggest "traitors" in the DSK camp are behind Aubry (especially Cambadélis). So, maybe she tries to prevent him from talking too much when back in France...

[big bad fab]

Complete numbers from a Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 17-22 August 2011, sample 1320 RVs

Among leftists / among socialists:
Hollande 42 / 49
Aubry 28 / 30
Royal 9 / 7
Montebourg 5 / 3
Valls 5 / 3
Baylet 0 / 0
none of them 11 / 7

Among Front de Gauche voters / among Greens (Harris don't say how much people it means... the samples should be tiny):
Hollande 30 / 30
Aubry 21 / 30
Royal 14 / 7
Montebourg 13 / 4
Valls 4 / 13
Baylet 0 / 0
none of them 19 / 16

Funny to see Valls result among Greens. What is noticeable is that Aubry may not be able to count on more leftist people to compensate for her bad results among socialists.

The most interesting numbers are from the 10% of the sample who say they will "certainly" vote in the primaries.
- This level of "certainty" is at 13% among men but only 8% among women. Hollande is far stronger among men.
- At 15% among people of more than 50 years old, 10% among 35-49 people, only 7% among 25-34 and 1% among 18-24. No big suprise here, of course, but the problem for Aubry is that it's exactly where Hollande is strong that people are more certain to GOTV.
- At 12% among "inactive" people (not only unemployed, but especially retirees), 10% among CSP+ and 8% among CSP-. Again Hollande is far stronger among inactive people.

I'm sorry to say, poll after poll, that Hollande is really stronger, but that's what numbers say .
(my deep belief that Sarkozy is doomed should persuade readers of my will to be impartial in analyses... I indeed hate Aubry, but she is indeed really weaker)

There are still many potential problems for Hollande: Royal may eventually try to harm him (though she seems to hate Aubry even more... which is understandable when you go back to Reims, 2008), Banon's mother and lawyer may try to bring him in the affair, etc.

But even DSK saying he supports Aubry could now be a problem for her...
And she has already wasted Daddy Delors, in a way.
And his campaign team seems able to avoid any personal attack, while she has already launched some small critics on TV recently.

Really, Hollande emerges from the summer even stronger, which is a surprise.
Of course, everything can change after TV debates and, what is more, between the 2 rounds (9th and 16th of October): if he is ahead but not so close to 50%, the momentum may be broken for him. That'd be an opportunity for Aubry.


BTW, 10% of people who would "certainly" GOTV in the PS primaries, that would mean 4 million voters... I can't believe it would be the case: that would be a great success.
Contrary to what many journalists say (especially leftist ones), 1 million would already be a success, I think.
Legitimacy will be an important thing for the socialist candidate, not in front of the whole French electorate, but inside the PS.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, same old voting patterns. Not very meaningful since the campaign hasn't really begun, but yeah, Hollande is ahead. I'd like to see the debate actually start on political subject, but of course it's not gonna happen anytime soon.

So, is this tracker coming or not ?

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #16 - 22 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

22 August Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,95
Poutou   0,55
Mélenchon   4,88
Chevènement   0,54
Aubry   25,87
Joly   6,19
Bayrou   7,08
Borloo   8,13
Villepin   2,60
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,62
Sarkozy   24,02
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Le Pen   17,94

      

      

22 August Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,92
Poutou   0,28
Mélenchon   4,94
Chevènement   0,32
Hollande   28,06
Joly   6,24
Bayrou   6,65
Borloo   7,84
Villepin   2,65
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,56
Sarkozy   23,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Le Pen   17,51

      

      

22 August generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,93
Poutou   0,39
Mélenchon   4,92
Chevènement   0,41
PS   27,19
Joly   6,22
Bayrou   6,82
Borloo   7,96
Villepin   2,63
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,58
Sarkozy   23,65
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Le Pen   17,68



Only statistical noise this week again, but, before PS summer university in La Rochelle this week-end, we'll probably have a poll.

What we can say before this new phase in the presidential contest is
that Sarkozy is still deeply weak,
that Hollande is stronger than Aubry against him,
that Le Pen seems to have peaked but is still disturbingly strong for Sarkozy and even for some parts of the left,
that the small candidates on the far-left and on the right are very small,
that a big bunch of people in the center seem not to know who to follow, the Greens, Bayrou or Borloo,
that the PS should win but that there is something vaguely uncertain about this, floating in the air...
because of the past defeats, probably, because things seem more tense between Aubry and Hollande, because DSK's ghost is still very well alive, because the crisis is big and have the potential to have a big impact on the political contest (though that could be either way).

Enjoy the coming French presidential election .

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for BFM TV-RMC-20 Minutes, 22-23 August 2011, 863 RVs out of a whole sample of 1006

14% of people certain to vote in the PS primary
15% of people likely to vote in the PS primary
(that sounds big, even bigger than the recent Harris poll)

Among these 2 categories / among socialists (we don't know the sample... it should be very tiny):
Hollande 37 / 45
Aubry 31 / 39
Royal 16 / 10
Montebourg 5 / 3
Valls 4 / 2
Baylet <1 / <1
none of them 3 / <1
don't know 4 / 1

Hollande is lower than in Harris, but the trend is the same: he is up and Aubry is down (they were at 41 among socialists in the previous CSA poll, just after her declaration of candidacy).
But, again, let's be careful as the sample is very tiny.

And, with only 2 names, Hollande's lead isn't so big:
Hollande 49 / 51
Aubry 45 / 47

Hollande 71 / 81
Royal 25 / 18

Aubry 66 / 77
Royal 29 / 22

They have also some questions on DSK:
among the whole sample / among socialists:
wish he is candidate in the PS primary 23 / 25
wish he supports another candidate 19 / 27
wish he doesn't take part in the political debate 53 / 43

Not all the socialists have burried DSK, after all, though it's pretty divided. Amazing that they don't realize that would now be worse than anything else if he tries to "help" in one way or another. He is le boulet, now.


Aubry / Hollande / Royal 26 / 27 / 19
Sarkozy 26 / 26 / 26
Le Pen 15 / 15 / 15
Borloo 8 / 8 / 8
Bayrou 7 / 7 / 9
Joly 5 / 5 / 7
Mélenchon 7 / 6.5 / 9
Villepin 4 / 3 / 4
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Arthaud 0.5 / 1 / 1
Poutou 0.5 / 0.5 / 1

Well, CSA is still having Le Pen lower than other pollsters (they were so much criticized for their failure in 2007, after having hugely overestimated Le Pen Sr).
Aubry is al most on par with Hollande here and Royal, for the first time in 2011, would make it to the 2nd round .
Mélenchon is still higher in CSA polls (maybe you can link this to Panzergirl's relatively low scores).
No surprise otherwise: the landscape seems to be pretty stable.
They haven't tested Nihous: shame on them !

Let's hope that IFOP or IPSOS will soon make one of their own .

[republicanism]

Antonio, Hashemite, Big bad fab, thanks for your answers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You're welcome.


So Hollande and Aubry are effectively even when it comes to the very important ability-to-beat-Sarkozy. Hopefully, that should end up this campaigning argument.

So Fab, 26% is "deeply weak" for you ?

If trends keep on in this direction, Sarko will be ahead by october...

[big bad fab]

Remember that Aubry was exactly equal to Hollande the last time...
And that Sarkozy was already high (26 and 27) in July...

So, with CSA, we have to be careful not to misinterpret...
The current trends (Hollande stronger, Sarkozy on the rise but very slowly, Le Pen down but still high) aren't invalidated at all.

[big bad fab]

IPSOS poll for Le Monde, Radio France, France Télévision, 16-22 August 2011, 404 potential voters in PS primaries out of a whole sample of 3677

At least, we know that the real sample is 404 (which isn't so bad), based on the "potential voters", who are supposed to be 9% of the total (well, 404 is more than 10% of 3677... don't ask me why...).

These potential voters include 71% of socialists, 8% of Front de Gauche people, 6% of Greens, 4% of far-leftists, 3% of MoDem people, 3% of UMPers, 2% of FN people, 3% of no-party.
Which seems to be logical.

31% have more than 60 years old, 32% between 45 and 59, 19% between 35 and 44, 18% between 18 and 34.
This is in line with other pollsters and this is good for Hollande.

31% are retirees, 14% are other inactive people, 17% are employees, 15% are workers, 10% have superior posts.
In line with other pollsters and good again for Hollande, the candidate of old and retired people .

Among potential voters / among the whole sample:
Hollande 42 / 45
Aubry 31 / 26
Royal 18 / 9
Montebourg 5 / 1
Valls 3 / 2
Baylet 1 / 0
don't know 10 / 17

Good numbers again for Hollande BUT some elements aren't so good for him: he seems as though he is plateauing....

Forecast by potential voters:
Hollande 42
Aubry 29
Royal 9
Montebourg 1
Valls 1
Baylet 0
don't know 18

This may seem good for Hollande, but it just says that, in fact, forecasts aren't better for him than votes: that may mean that, apart from his supporters, there is some sort of rejection of him. Royal supporters aren't all naive and clearly see that she is doomed. But they don't seem to acknowledge Hollande's advantage.

My pick is definitive:
Hollande 51
Aubry 49
Royal 50

Another result which is a bit disappointing for Hollande (in the sense that it's not better for him than for the others).

Now, the second round is not so good for him:
Hollande 53 - 47 Aubry
with 62% of Hollande voters sure of their vote and 58% of Aubry voters.

Royal voters support Aubry at 53% and Hollande at 31% (16% don't know).
This is a change in comparison to spring polls. But it can be explained just because those of Royal supporters who preferred Hollande have already joined him (hence his rise in the first round since mid-May and the long decline of Royal since the beginning of 2011).

Who is the best ?
Hollande is ahead or on par on 8 items out of a total of 9, but Aubry isn't completely crushed, far from it:
on proposals, he is at 31, she is at 32
on embodiment of left values, he is at 29, she is at 40
on managing an international economic crisis, he is at 37, she is at 30.

Of course, she has a problem on 2 items:
on character, he is at 36, she is at 27 (but that could have been worse)
on ability to win against Sarkozy, he is at 48 and she is at 28: this is of course the main point on which he can make a difference in the end, especially if it's razor-thin in the 2nd round.

Well, all this gives us a suspenseful campaign, after all, as debates may well push Montebourg or even Valls up, as they'll become more known, and may well kill Aubry or Hollande if they make mistakes.
By putting Royal even more down (no, she can't go up ), they may favour Montebourg or Aubry.
And the 1st round results may change all the landscape for the 2nd round, if Hollande isn't high enough.

In late June, medias were talking about Aubry rise (whereas she was just trying to erase the gap) and now they are talking about Hollande being the favourite without hesitation (whereas he is strong but not enough to be sure of his election at all).
If Hollande is still the favourite in late September, but do not have a big result, he may lose momentum and the medias will kill him for the 2nd round.

Last numbers from this poll, forecasts among the whole sample of French people:
Hollande 48
Sarkozy 38

Aubry 41
Sarkozy 47

Royal 25
Sarkozy 66

It's bad for Aubry, but I'm not sure primary voters will be aware of these obscure figures ....

[Antonio the Sixth]

Remember that Aubry was exactly equal to Hollande the last time...
And that Sarkozy was already high (26 and 27) in July...

So, with CSA, we have to be careful not to misinterpret...
The current trends (Hollande stronger, Sarkozy on the rise but very slowly, Le Pen down but still high) aren't invalidated at all.

Maybe what you should do is to separate your tracker into one subtracker for each polling firm, and aggregate those subtrackers to get the "official" tracker (you can give each firm the same ponderation, if you want). That way, it won't be too dependent of the overrepresentation of a particular house (for example, CSA will dominate the tracker next week). Of course, it makes it a bit more complicated.

[big bad fab]

Well, if I make another tracker, that would be for PS primaries
But polls are really too erratic: you've got 3 almost the same day and then nothing for some weeks. Too bad.
Everyone should do like YouGov in the UK

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nah, we've only a handful of primary polls and the trends aren't even interesting...

Instead, eliminating house effects would be very useful to see things more clearly.

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll for le Journal du Dimanche, 23-26 August 2011, 854 self-declared leftists out of a whole sample of 1968

This is a finer sample.

Among leftists / among socialists
Hollande 41 / 47
Aubry 31 / 31
Royal 13 / 11
Valls 6 / 5
Montebourg 5 / 4
Baylet 1 / 0
none of them 3 / 2

Hollande 55 / 58
Aubry 45 / 42

It's a bit boring to repeat things: Hollande is stronger, especially among old people, men, retirees, these categories which are also those who are likelier to GOTV the 9th of October.

Still, in a second round, Hollande isn't above 60.
But Aubry has really a lot of work to do.
We'll see if La Rochelle is good for her, as she is doing quite well, I think. But only formally: as for the ideas, medias don't help her.

Aubry is even is bit weaker in the first round and Royal is a bit up again, with Valls around 5 rather than around 3.
That's very small, but it's not good for Aubry: she hasn't managed to convince during the summer.

Debates will really be important for all of them.
Especially if it's "anybody but Hollande", especially for Royal and Montebourg (I can't think Valls would harm him and Baylet is too clever to weaken his party towards any of the socialist bigwigs ).
We'll see, some primary debates in the US have been awful for some...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really can't wait for the debate, because the socialists' current "no comment" policy is getting sillier every day.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #17 - 29 August 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until October at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

29 August Aubry sub-tracker      

Arthaud   0,54
Poutou   0,50
Mélenchon   6,36
Chevènement   0,20
Aubry   25,73
Joly   5,40
Bayrou   7,03
Borloo   8,07
Villepin   3,46
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,54
Sarkozy   25,57
Dupont-Aignan   0,54
Le Pen   16,07
   

29 August Hollande sub-tracker
   
Arthaud   0,87
Poutou   0,40
Mélenchon   6,04
Chevènement   0,10
Hollande   27,13
Joly   5,40
Bayrou   6,83
Borloo   7,90
Villepin   2,83
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,50
Sarkozy   25,40
Dupont-Aignan   0,54
Le Pen   16,07


29 August generic PS candidate sub-tracker   
   
Arthaud   0,74
Poutou   0,44
Mélenchon   6,17
Chevènement   0,14
PS   26,57
Joly   5,40
Bayrou   6,91
Borloo   7,97
Villepin   3,08
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,51
Sarkozy   25,47
Dupont-Aignan   0,54
Le Pen   16,07

OK, here we are: after the very small numbers of polls since the beginning of July, we've got an overvaluation for the last CSA one.
But I don't want to change the tracker, because it would mean to take into account in an even larger way the old ones.
And since June, we've got some big changes: Aubry is officially candidate, DSK was in again and out again and maybe in again and definitely out, La Rochelle has occurred and, what is more, the Big Kriziz is back.

So, we have to leave with those poor French medias and those lazy pollsters: no data ? No smooth changes in trackers...

But it's the last big vacation before the election.
So, let's be patient for 2 or 3 weeks, and polls will be numerous again.
The Xmas recess won't be long enough to produc the same effect .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully the new bump in the Bettencourt affair will kill Sarko's momentum once for all.

[big bad fab]

Hopefully the new bump in the Bettencourt affair will kill Sarko's momentum once for all.

I'm not so sure: it smells too much the Le Monde-Libération manipulation (I even suspect them to have given the info to Aubry this morning so that she can be the first to demand another inquiry... come on, guys, it's too clumsy... even Valls seem to have understood this ).
And they are less efficient than Rue89 or Mediapart in this kind of stuff
Sarkozy, friend of some ugly rich persons ? Not really something new...

And well, DSK isn't back yet: so, the "soap opera" will probably erase the effect of these words by an angry judge.

I think the Karachi affair (and all the dirt around it, I mean 1995 presidential campaign) has a far more killing potential for Sarkozy. This really frightens me.

In Karachi, you've got at once the moral aspect (people killed as a consequence of money), the classical money scandal and the political remnants of the latest great rightist divide (Chirac vs Balladur).
The perfect affaire d'Etat, à l'ancienne.


Aubry is really everywhere since this week-end. But is her message really clear ?
It's funny to see her act like a classical party chief, just at the moment when she is no longer PS first secretary... Again, it's not very good politically, I think.
And she must hate DSK now, as he will completely blur her attempt to come back.

As for the Senate, if it switches to the left on the 25th of September, I don't if the fact that the socialist leader there, Jean-Pierre Bel, is a "hollandais" will have any importance.
(positive, with some images of Hollande around the conquered High Chamber, or negative, as Hollande may appear as the "local barons" man)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully the new bump in the Bettencourt affair will kill Sarko's momentum once for all.

I'm not so sure: it smells too much the Le Monde-Libération manipulation (I even suspect them to have given the info to Aubry this morning so that she can be the first to demand another inquiry... come on, guys, it's too clumsy... even Valls seem to have understood this ).

ZOMGZ Conspiracy !

[big bad fab]

Hopefully the new bump in the Bettencourt affair will kill Sarko's momentum once for all.

I'm not so sure: it smells too much the Le Monde-Libération manipulation (I even suspect them to have given the info to Aubry this morning so that she can be the first to demand another inquiry... come on, guys, it's too clumsy... even Valls seem to have understood this ).

ZOMGZ Conspiracy !

No, don't say that, that's not the way I'm reasoning. I know that, nowadays, you can't anything anymore, because there is always a suspicion of manipulation either of the facts themselves, or of the interpretation of these facts or alleged facts.

No, when I say "manipulation", it's only on the calendar and on the way the info is given and used in the medias, not on the info itself.
(I of course don't know if it's true; it wouldn't be surprising at all to see Sarkozy having taken money from Liliane)

As for Aubry's reaction this morning, I've found it too precise and well-balanced to be a spontaneous answer...
or maybe she is really very, very clever and I should support her, after all

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, that might be as you say. It's quite possible that they waited the right moment to reveal the story. As we say, "c'est de bonne guerre".

[big bad fab]

Yes, that might be as you say. It's quite possible that they waited the right moment to reveal the story. As we say, "c'est de bonne guerre".

And again, Hollande and Moscovici were better than Aubry : they attacked Sarkozy on a system of "pressures" as a whole, not on Bettencourt affair particularly.

All the more that the nurse who saw money given to Sarkozy according to the judge has just said that it's wrong...

Now that Aubry "has always something to say" (le professeur Rollin a toujours quelque chose à dire ! don't you remember ? ), she is prone to say also some BS.
At least, it's interesting as the PS internal campaign is now very active. Fine !

Royal is trying to tilt towards Hollande again, after having been kind to Aubry, after having first been closer to Hollande.
She is really out of control .