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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 303950 times)
big bad fab
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« Reply #75 on: March 07, 2011, 11:02:01 am »

I would enjoy seeing a second round vote between DSK and LePen with Sarko knocked out after the first round. I guess the only question in that scenario is whether DSK gets 75% or 80%.

My fear is that a lot of right-wingers would be more encline to vote for a far-rightist than for a moderate social-democrat like Strauss Khan. I don't know how much of them would, but my guts say DSK could very well fall below 70% in your scenario.

I don't agree with you, Antonio.
Hate or disappointment towards Sarkozy is very high even on the right and when DSK is tested in place of Aubry or Hollande, DSK steals votes mainly in... Sarkozy voters !
Of course, the process can be partially indirect, through Borloo, Bayrou, Hulot or other candidates, but, still, this is the main change.

And all the Sarkozy voters who are potential voters for the far-right are... already gone, now Wink !

On the contrary, you may have some 3-4% from the far-left going to Panzergirl.
With an additional 3-4% from Sarkozy, Dupont-Aignan and... Bayrou, she would be at 30%, sure, but not at 35% or even 33%.
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« Reply #76 on: March 07, 2011, 02:41:40 pm »

Yeah, that seems accurate. Though I wouldn't be as categorical as you are. As I said, that's mostly a guts issue.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #77 on: March 07, 2011, 04:52:38 pm »

Harris polls with other socialist candidates:

Le Pen 24, DSK 23, Sarkozy 21 20 (fixed: some medias were wrong)
Le Pen 24, Sarkozy 21, Hollande 20
Le Pen 23, Sarkozy 21, Aubry 21
« Last Edit: March 08, 2011, 06:23:47 am by big bad fab »Logged

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« Reply #78 on: March 07, 2011, 05:01:19 pm »

Le Pen 24, DSK 23, Sarkozy 21

Merde.
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« Reply #79 on: March 07, 2011, 09:50:42 pm »

Montebourg ought to be nominated because Hashemite would provide plenty of amusement in that case.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #80 on: March 08, 2011, 06:23:02 am »

To be complete:

Marine Le Pen: 23 / 24 / 24
Nicolas Sarkozy: 21 / 21 / 20
Martine Aubry: 21 / François Hollande: 20 / DSK: 23
Eva Joly: 7 / 7 / 7
Dominique de Villepin: 7 / 5 / 4
François Bayrou: 8 / 8 / 6
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 5 / 6 / 7
Olivier Besancenot: 5 / 6 / 6
Nathalie Arthaud: 1 / 1 / 1
Hervé Morin: 1 / 1 / 1
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: 1 / 1 / 1

The sample of the first one is 1618 and quotas have been applied also along 2007 votes. So, its better than expected Tongue.

Of course, we must keep in mind it's an Internet poll (always easier to click than explicitly pronounce the syllabs LE-PEN)
and that Harris keeps applying the "Jean-Marie Le Pen" correction of about 2%.
Don't forget that Jean-Daniel Lévy (director of "opinion" department in Harris Interactive) had the same role inside CSA some years ago: he was also responsible for Bayrou ahead of Royal in 2007 Wink.... and for some highly controversial polls with JM Le Pen higher than from every other pollster.

Add a margin of error of 2-3%, of course, and she can be ahead easily...

But, of course, we must acknowledge that the different results for the far-left, for Villepin and for Bayrou are really logical in the 3 hypotheses (too logical ? I mean, other pollsters have DSK stealing votes not so much from Villepin or Bayrou but from Sarkozy !).
So, it could really mean that Sarkozy and Besancenot have indeed lost potential voters in favour of Marine Le Pen...

When I've said 2011 would be far more interesting than 2012... Wink

Cantonales will be fascinating in a way.
Because, if turnout is low, the new threshold to be in the second round will act as a FN-killer and as a "bipolarizer".

But if turnout is VERY low, the FN may be able to kill the right (in North of France, between Montpellier and Marseille or around Lyon) or the left (in inner Provence and Côte d'Azur or along north-eastern borders) and then to grasp some cantons in the second round...

It will be interesting in Ain, Vaucluse, Moselle, Seine-et-Marne, Rhône, Loire and even Pyrénées-Orientales or Drôme !
« Last Edit: March 08, 2011, 06:33:52 am by big bad fab »Logged

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Antonio V
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« Reply #81 on: March 08, 2011, 07:09:06 am »

Well, if we follow your numbers about the margins of error and the correction, we still get Le Pen at 18-19% at the very least. Which is, IMO, pretty damn scary.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #82 on: March 08, 2011, 05:10:17 pm »

Oh yes, sure !
But it wouldn't put her in the second round.

It seems IFOP only make a 1 point correction.
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« Reply #83 on: March 08, 2011, 05:11:30 pm »

But it wouldn't put her in the second round.

Until she picks up a few more points, and/or "official" candidates lose a few more points.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #84 on: March 08, 2011, 05:14:44 pm »

But it wouldn't put her in the second round.

Until she picks up a few more points, and/or "official" candidates lose a few more points.

My nightmare: Aubry is the PS candidate and Sarko is ousted in the first round...
Forced to vote for Aubry !!!! GASP !!!! Sad Wink
DSK, Hollande, even Royal (err... maybe because I know she can't be candidate Wink) would make me less sick.

BTW, pollsters seem to have dropped Royal as a possibility in the options they are testing... how hilarious !
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« Reply #85 on: March 09, 2011, 05:04:27 am »

Since it is not totally unrelated to this "poll", the CREDOC just released an interesting paper about bias in online polls (in French, btw).
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big bad fab
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« Reply #86 on: March 10, 2011, 06:35:05 am »

Back to serious business with an IFOP poll for France-Soir (done on 7th to 9th of March; sample: 1046)

Marine Le Pen again on the rise, but onyl Royal (LOL) is unable to beat her in the 1st round.

Sarkozy 24 / 23 / 24 / 24
Aubry 24 / DSK 29 / Hollande 23 / Royal 19
Le Pen 22 / 21 / 22 / 22
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7.5 / 8
Morin 1.5 / 1 / 2 / 2
Villepin 4.5 / 3 / 4 / 5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1.5 / 1 / 1
Joly 6 / 5.5 / 6.5 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 6
Besancenot 4 / 4 / 4 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

At last, Besancenot is sliding under 5%.

BUT it seems to benefit to Panzergirl, as I've already said. When you look at the internal numbers of this poll, she indeed grasps a small number of far-left voters.
And she of course wins back many voters stolen by Sarkozy in 2007.

What is amazing is that, whatever the hypothesis, she is at 37-38% in BOTH categories of workers and employees.

Villepin is more in line with usual numbers. He was really high in Harris Interactive now famous poll.
DSK logically steals voters from Bayrou and Joly, but also from Villepin.

Hollande is almost on a par with Aubry. DSK remains higher, but all the other (Sarkozy, Aubry, Hollande are really threatened by Panzergirl.

One positive side in this: the sooner Panzergirl peaks, the sooner and the more she will go down...
Or not ?
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Hash
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« Reply #87 on: March 10, 2011, 09:00:13 am »

Thankfully Ifop restores some semblance of sanity. OK, 21% for Daddy's girl is high, but at least she isn't ahead. But perhaps it's good Daddy's girl is peaking this early, given that it might give her more time to come down. And about time Besancenot is coming down. What an overrated snot-nosed opportunistic sh**t.

lol @ Segolene Royal-Palin
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« Reply #88 on: March 10, 2011, 12:11:39 pm »

This poll actually scares me more than the previous one. So she really is 2 points short of getting in.

One positive side in this: the sooner Panzergirl peaks, the sooner and the more she will go down...
Or not ?

You can't say it's a peak until the numbrers start decreasing...
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« Reply #89 on: March 10, 2011, 12:26:53 pm »

Here's a question for the end-is-nigh mass panickers: who led in polls in 1980, 1987, 1994, 2001 and 2006?
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« Reply #90 on: March 10, 2011, 12:28:06 pm »

Here's a question for the end-is-nigh mass panickers: who led in polls in 1980, 1987, 1994, 2001 and 2006?

Not the FN. Wink
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big bad fab
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« Reply #91 on: March 13, 2011, 08:45:01 am »

CSA for La Dépêche du Midi, 9-10 March, sample: 853

No other detail for the moment than the "big 3".

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22

So, Panzergirl is always on the second round.
And only DSK qualifies.
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« Reply #92 on: March 13, 2011, 09:31:09 am »

CSA for La Dépêche du Midi, 9-10 March, sample: 853

No other detail for the moment than the "big 3".

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22

So, Panzergirl is always on the second round.
And only DSK qualifies.

SO, there's a real opportunity for a 2nd round with two homophobic candidates =(
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« Reply #93 on: March 13, 2011, 09:42:44 am »

All right. Now it's time to start praying for Strauss-Khan.
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« Reply #94 on: March 13, 2011, 12:25:42 pm »

All right. Now it's time to start praying for Strauss-Khan.

It will be interesting to see the internals, as CSA is a bit better than it was in 2007.
The only number I've read for the moment is that, among retirees, DSK is at 34% against 30% for Sarkozy.

This is the real winning strategy for the PS now: fighting Sarkozy directly, in its own backyard.
And this, Aubry is unable to do.

The PS has to keep on this double negative momentum for Sarkozy, who is eaten from the right and from the centre and the centre-right.
Whatever he says or does, he loses on the far-right or on the centre-right. This is avicious circle only DSK is able to feed.

Of course, all this is really far away from the election and I hope all the "Truth and Cleanness Gods" (Mediapart, Rue89 et alii) will begin to dig in Le Pen more than in Sarkozy past.

But with some "breakings" to come probably on Karachi, Balladur 1995 campaign, Longuet's past, Elysee private polls or anything else, it is likely that Panzergirl will remain high for the months to come, though with a possible little decrease after the cantonales elections.
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« Reply #95 on: March 13, 2011, 03:02:51 pm »

Don't know whether I should be scared at this sh**t or whether I should laugh at CSA considering their wonderful track record.
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« Reply #96 on: March 13, 2011, 03:35:01 pm »

Don't know whether I should be scared at this sh**t or whether I should laugh at CSA considering their wonderful track record.

They are better for about 2 years. Maybe because Jean-Daniel Lévy has joined Harris Interactive Tongue.

And, TBH, this poll is pretty in line with IFOP one.
But, of course, there may be some suivisme in all the pollsters...
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« Reply #97 on: March 13, 2011, 09:49:40 pm »


SO, there's a real opportunity for a 2nd round with two homophobic candidates =(

So who is "homophobic" apart from LePen?

BTW: IF a year from now we are in the final days of the campaign and the polls show a three-way dead heat in the first round  I wonder how much "strategic voting" might ensue by people on the right and the left to make sure there is no repeat of 2002. I mean if the polls were showing DSK, Sarko and LePen each at 23% - wouldn't there be enormous pressure on people thinking of voting for various minor rightwing and centre-right candidates like Bayrou and Villepin etc...to instead vote for Sarkozy to ensure that there is not a DSK vs. LePen second round? and conversely, i have to think that a lot of people thinking of voting for any of that plethora of minor leftwing and green candidates for President in the first round might instead vote for DSK to ensure that they don't do to DSK what they did to Jospin in 2002 and end up with a Sarkozy vs. LePen second round?
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big bad fab
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« Reply #98 on: March 14, 2011, 05:12:42 am »

Of course, there will be vote utile ("useful vote") if there is a dead heat with Marine Le Pen (my own Boutin vote is threatened Grin).

But the problem is that it may be not enough.
And polls are forbidden on Saturday and Sunday (polling day). No useful poll can be done and largely published after the Thursday, in fact.
In 2002, that was in the very last days that Jean-Marie Le Pen  has beaten Jospin (confidential polls have measured this, but it was too late to make it public).

In the end, between Jospin and Jean-Marie Le Pen, there was less than 1%.
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« Reply #99 on: March 14, 2011, 07:06:49 am »

SO, there's a real opportunity for a 2nd round with two homophobic candidates =(

Huh
Sarkozy has many defects, but I fail to see what could make you think he is homophobe.
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