France 2012: the official thread

[Hash]

Hopefully they release results at a departmental level, or, one can hope, at a cantonal/communal level.

[Hash]

Maxime Brunerie, the far-right nut who tried to shoot Chirac, has endorsed Segolene. In 2009, he had joined the MoDem. I see that the crazies attract the crazy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Indeed, I'm expecting a fun election tomorrow. Let's see.

I'll ask the same, boring question as usual : when will we get the first results ? Well, at least this time there's no time zone issue.

Maxime Brunerie, the far-right nut who tried to shoot Chirac, has endorsed Segolene. In 2009, he had joined the MoDem. I see that the crazies attract the crazy.

ROFL. That's really the last thing she needed.

[Math]

Indeed, I'm expecting a fun election tomorrow. Let's see.

I'll ask the same, boring question as usual : when will we get the first results ? Well, at least this time there's no time zone issue.

It seems the first results will be available at 21:00, and "consolidated results" (I don't know what does it mean exactly) at 23:00. We will have two declarations about turnout level at 12:00 and 19:00. No exit polls, AFAIK.

OK, guys, here is the graph: all the polls for the French PS primary since DSK affair began !

Nice - and useful - graph for sure! You can find some others here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

21 ? I know polling stations will probably be overworked, but it's quite a shame it takes so much time.

[big bad fab]

Very fine graphs, Math, "à la Pollster".

Hash, at best, we can expect results by polling stations, which means 21 in Rennes, but only on in Chateaubourg canton and only two for the whole Fougères constituency for example... I doubt someone will have the data needed to do better .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still no turnout numbers ?

[Hash]

Turnout is over 1 million now.

[Tender Branson]

Who exactly can vote today and who is expected to win ? Is there a 2nd round ?

[Hash]

Who exactly can vote today and who is expected to win ? Is there a 2nd round ?

Please read earlier posts on this topic, sometimes just 1-2 pages back.

Anybody can vote as long as they pay 1 euro and sign a charter of left-wing values.

[Tender Branson]

Who exactly can vote today and who is expected to win ? Is there a 2nd round ?

Please read earlier posts on this topic, sometimes just 1-2 pages back.

Anybody can vote as long as they pay 1 euro and sign a charter of left-wing values.

Sry, I can't read 50 pages ...

What are the exact figures of how many of these "leftist" voters registered to vote and where can you find them ?

If everyone had to pay 1€ to register, did the money go to the PS as campaign money ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If you want to know who are the favorites, have a look at Fab's nice graph.



2nd round is almost certain, and almost certainly will be Hollande vs Aubry.


Otherwise, anyone who's registered to vote can vote in the primaries, as long as he signs a paper stating his attachment to "left-wing values". So, theoretically as many as 45 milion people can vote. More realistically, turnout is expected to be between 1 and 4 milion, which would be a huge success in any case.

And I doubt the money could go to the PS campaign. Probably it will just pay for the costs of organization.

[Niemeyerite]

I hope Hollande gets less than 45% of the vote and Aubry more than 35%, with Royal coming 3rd.

My prediction:

Hollande 43%
Auby 31%
Royal 10.5%
Montebourg 8%
Valls 6%
Baylet 1.5% (better than expected)

[big bad fab]

French people from Canada may have put Aubry ahead: is it a way for frightened aubrysts to try something ? or a stupidity from local apparatchiki, proud to give a "big" info to a journalist ? or a "small" journalist trying to have her hour of glory ?

Anyway, it's difficult to say how the turnout will influence things.
It seems that the final turnout will be abit above 5%.
Fine for the PS, but less than expected in the polls.

Some Hollande voters who thought they didn't need to vote ? Less leftists and far-leftists than expected ?
Or, as usual in national elections, people who postpone their vote until the very end (after all, people usually do exactly this in all their life: postponing and postponing again... ) ?

I don't think it's the last explanation as I think people were very eager to vote, more than in national elections.

When did you vote Antontio ?
I'm so jealous

[big bad fab]

DSK has voted for Martine Aubry. "VWithout any surprise" has he said.

Look at a photo of him: he's bearded now and his eyes are even more down... Less triumphant than some weeks ago, eh ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, I didn't told you ? I can't vote, those stupid municipal services decided they won't register me until november (I'm 18 since march !!). When I realized that, the PS deadline was already over. You can imagine how pissed off I am.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorta livestream here http://partisocialiste.tumblr.com/

Not unbiased of course, but who cares ?

[Hash]

Darmon talks about "big surprise". Montebourg apparently third. I don't see why that's surprising.

[Math]

The first results are here: http://resultats.lesprimairescitoyennes.fr/

Of course the PS still sucks and is not able to aggregate the results, so you must have a look at each departments...

[big bad fab]

Oh, I didn't told you ? I can't vote, those stupid municipal services decided they won't register me until november (I'm 18 since march !!). When I realized that, the PS deadline was already over. You can imagine how pissed off I am.

Oh... very sorry for you.

According to the 50 test-polling stations from Hololande's staff, Montebourg is 3rd.

Mon^tpellier-centre has put Aubry ahead of Hollande. Maybe just students and urban people and the influence of anti-frechist mayor, but, still, I have a bad feeling...

[Hash]

"Pointage sur les premiers 180 000 bulletins dépouillés : Hollande 39 % Aubry 31% Montebourg 18% Royal 7% Valls 5 % #PrimairePS"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh, I didn't told you ? I can't vote, those stupid municipal services decided they won't register me until november (I'm 18 since march !!). When I realized that, the PS deadline was already over. You can imagine how pissed off I am.

Oh... very sorry for you.

According to the 50 test-polling stations from Hololande's staff, Montebourg is 3rd.

Mon^tpellier-centre has put Aubry ahead of Hollande. Maybe just students and urban people and the influence of anti-frechist mayor, but, still, I have a bad feeling...

When you have a bad feeling, that always gives me a good feeling.

I'm not dreaming, though. Let's wait and see.

[Hash]

Fabulous, the PS' results website has crashed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Pointage sur les premiers 180 000 bulletins dépouillés : Hollande 39 % Aubry 31% Montebourg 18% Royal 7% Valls 5 % #PrimairePS"

Where did you get this ? Math's link doesn't work.

[Hash]

"Pointage sur les premiers 180 000 bulletins dépouillés : Hollande 39 % Aubry 31% Montebourg 18% Royal 7% Valls 5 % #PrimairePS"

Where did you get this ? Math's link doesn't work.

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