France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

New candidate yay!

Maxime Gremetz, a hardcore Stalinist hothead, is probably running for the PCF nomination... despite not being a member of the PCF. He has served as deputy for the Somme on-and-off since 1978 and was also an MEP for a while. Originally one of the party's stooges in the late 70s, he has become a thorn in the side of the Politburo of the PCF to the point that they threw him out in 2006 and ran an official PCF candidate against him in 2007 (he also ran as a communist dissident in the 2010 regionals, coming narrowly ahead of the FG list). He's a mad and slightly insane populist, and has been suspected of a deal with the FN to win some public office in some public agency. He is known for being insane, notably by almost running over a police officer in 1998, shoving a PS regional councillor, and then by attacking and apparently looting the office of fellow PCF deputy Daniel Paul. The candidacy of Joseph Stalin's French grandson makes this election fun automatically.

Wow, that's quite impressive. I confusedly heard about the latter, but I couldn't imagine he was such a psychopath.

[Hash]

New candidate yay!

Maxime Gremetz, a hardcore Stalinist hothead, is probably running for the PCF nomination... despite not being a member of the PCF. He has served as deputy for the Somme on-and-off since 1978 and was also an MEP for a while. Originally one of the party's stooges in the late 70s, he has become a thorn in the side of the Politburo of the PCF to the point that they threw him out in 2006 and ran an official PCF candidate against him in 2007 (he also ran as a communist dissident in the 2010 regionals, coming narrowly ahead of the FG list). He's a mad and slightly insane populist, and has been suspected of a deal with the FN to win some public office in some public agency. He is known for being insane, notably by almost running over a police officer in 1998, shoving a PS regional councillor, and then by attacking and apparently looting the office of fellow PCF deputy Daniel Paul. The candidacy of Joseph Stalin's French grandson makes this election fun automatically.

Wow, that's quite impressive. I confusedly heard about the latter, but I couldn't imagine he was such a psychopath.

Maybe Jo Stalin's French son is also Kyle Mercado's dad.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gremetz for President!

[Hash]

So, Aubry called Royal impatient and Royal threw a small hissy fit. It seems as if the Traditional Civil War of the PS will start soon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, Aubry called Royal impatient and Royal threw a small hissy fit. It seems as if the Traditional Civil War of the PS will start soon.

Please, just don't let Royal win again. We are about to break the recond of "unlosable elections" lost.

[big bad fab]

The centrist group in the Senate is about to elect a new president.

Le Figaro calculates that there are 7 MoDem or close to it, 9 NC or close to it and 10 AC or close to this small Arthuis' party.
Which leaves 3 without any clear label.

And, of course, there... 3 candidates for this incredibly important presidency .
But not Valérie Létard, NC but close to Borloo, who is still inside the UMP with his Radical Party.

And the candidate which is AC, Zocchetto, seems to disagree with Arthuis, as Arthuis has joined Morin and the NC in a project of a new centrist confederation, and seems to let open the door for Bayrou...

You have'nt understood anything ?
That just means you're normal .
There is almost a new wing with each new centrist .

Now, you've got the NC members who are in favour of Borloo (J.C. Lagarde, Létard, Leroy, even Sauvadet, though a bit less for the latter), those who are in favour of an alliance with Arthuis, but don't want to be too kind with Bayrou (Dionis du Séjour), those who first want to be seen as different from the UMP (Morin).

Inside the MoDem, divisions are a bit less deep, as they are... less and less numerous. But, Michel Mercier is still MoDem, while you've got many local apparatchiki who are more on the left.

Fascinating.

BTW, maneuvers from Arthuis may mean he wants the Senate presidency for himself next September, when a hung Senate is a likely possibility.

[RodPresident]

President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva said that he wants a woman to be next President of French Republic. He said this at a meeting with Secretary-General of PS, Martine Aubry, at World Social Forum, in Dakar, Senegal.

[Hash]

Hervé Maurey (NC-Eure), close to Morin and supported by Arthuis, should easily win given that the NC and AC dominate the group.

Also, Jean Louis Bianco has said that he won't run in the PS primaries. I figure that his ego didn't want to get 0.5% of the vote.

[MaxQue]

Hervé Maurey (NC-Eure), close to Morin and supported by Arthuis, should easily win given that the NC and AC dominate the group.

But, NO!

Zocchetto won, since the two other candidates retired minutes before the vote, to show unity.
Apparently, according to some medias, AC senators refused to let NC control the group, since they already the Assembly group. They didn't wanted than the NC had more control on the center.

As usual, they are fighting each other while they aren't very relevent (well, except in Senate, since the right hasn't a majority).

[Hash]

Hervé Maurey (NC-Eure), close to Morin and supported by Arthuis, should easily win given that the NC and AC dominate the group.

But, NO!

Zocchetto won, since the two other candidates retired minutes before the vote, to show unity.
Apparently, according to some medias, AC senators refused to let NC control the group, since they already the Assembly group. They didn't wanted than the NC had more control on the center.

As usual, they are fighting each other while they aren't very relevent (well, except in Senate, since the right hasn't a majority).

That is... surprising. Seemingly Arthuis decided to abandon Maurey last minute to back Zocchetto, who also got support from the MoDem.

[big bad fab]

What is fascinating is that AC senators felt a bit betrayed by Arthuis making friends with Morin too... quickly.
OMG, we are in 2011 ! 4 years after the explosion of the center-right...

It's so fun to see that even small chiefs have no big power in their small cohorts .
Morin is almost alone in his own party;
Arthuis isn't followed in the first political test for him since 2007;
both MoDem newcomers (greener and more to the left) and remaining ex-UDF local barons feel betrayed by Bayrou (who hasn't signed an agreement with the left or who opposes the government too harshly).

Miam, miam ! J'aime la "micro-politique" !

When you see all the "presidential" candidates everywhere (see the Greens, see the Front de Gauche, see the many centrist organizations, see the PS), it seems as if France is experiencing a pre-primary fool day, as its "new" de facto fully presidential regime has now its first real election (2007 was a transition one between the old system and the new one).

After all, 2012 isn't so bad for the moment, electorally and "parochialistically" speaking.
But maybe it will be more 2011 than 2012 which will be interesting...

[big bad fab]

CSA-Marianne, made 14-15 Feb. by phone (sample 1005):

DSK 29 / 61
Sarkozy 22 / 39
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 8
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 6
Joly 5
Villepin 4
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

Sarkozy 26 / 46
Aubry 22 / 54
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 9
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 6
Joly 6
Villepin 5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

Sarkozy 26 / 54
Hollande 20 / 46
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 10
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 7
Joly 6
Villepin 5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

Sarjozy 26 / 50
Royal 18 / 50
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 10
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 8
Joly 7
Villepin 5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

So, DSK is amazingly strong on the paper, because he doesn't steal (at least directly) voters from Bayrou, Joly, Villepin, but from this very Sarkozy !!!
(even if it's probably indirect: myself, I'd vote Sarkozy in the 1st round only if it's not DSK candidate...)


IFOP France-Soir, made by "computer assisted web interviewing" on 16-17 Feb. (sample 949 registered voters among a total sample of 1068)

DSK 26
Sarkozy 22
Le Pen 19
Bayrou 7
Joly 7
Villepin 4
Morin 2
Besancenot 5.5
Mélenchon 6
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 0.5

Aubry 22
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 20
Bayrou 8
Joly 7
Villepin 5
Morin 2.5
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5.5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

OMG, will IFOP be the disappointment of this election or is PanzerGirl really so high ??

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't believe polls have now FN at 20%. Either they're gaming the numbers or the next election could be another bloodbath for democracy.

[big bad fab]

DSK may be hoping that Sarkozy has a rebound

Because if Sarkozy is crunched from both sides, as he is now, the prospect of a big, big victory of the left fuels the left of the PS...

Everything is about dynamics and momentums...
Enjoy this spring , as 2012 may be a boring election after all the pre-electoral dust is settled...

[big bad fab]

From the IFOP poll (beware, it's an Internet one):

Le Pen has 37%/34% of workers (Aubry and DSK hypotheses) and 32% of employees...

The only "stronghold" for Sarkozy (but "only" with 27-29%): the retirees.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think the winner of the election will mostly depend on how the PS primaries go, because in a so favorable situation the only thing able to kill the PS is the PS. So of course it's a shame we have to wait for almost another year instead of just having them now, even though this will allow me to vote.

[Hash]

I can't believe polls have now FN at 20%. Either they're gaming the numbers or the next election could be another bloodbath for democracy.

Well, look at the situation:
a) the incumbent President is as popular as the plague, and there is no inspiring alternative within the right
b) aside from DSK, all PS candidates are boring hacks and most are utterly lacking in charisma. Furthermore, as always, the PS has no substance aside from WE R OPPOSITION VOTE 4 US.

[Math]

A new phone poll made by TNS-Sofres (18-19 Feb., sample 1000):

Marine is also surging here, and there is an interesting hypothesis with Montebourg, who would be, unsurprisingly, crushed by Le Pen.

Arthaud 0,5 % (-0,5)
Besancenot 7 % (+0,5)
Mélenchon 7 % (+1)
Aubry 24 %/56 % (+1/+1)
Joly 6 % (-2)
Bayrou 5 % (-2)
Borloo 4,5 % (-2)
Villepin 4,5 % (+0,5)
Sarkozy 24/44 % (-1/-1)
Le Pen 17,5 % (+4,5)

Turnout : 77 %

Arthaud 1 % (=)
Besancenot 8 % (+1,5)
Mélenchon 7,5 % (+0,5)
Royal 19 %/52 % (+2/=)
Joly 8 % (-1)
Bayrou 5 % (-2)
Borloo 4,5 % (-3,5)
Villepin 5 % (+1)
Sarkozy 24/48 % (-2/=)
Le Pen 17,5 % (+3,5)

Turnout : 75 %

Arthaud 1 % (=)
Besancenot 8 % (+1)
Mélenchon 7,5 % (+0,5)
Hollande 22 %/56 % (+5,5/+1)
Joly 6,5 % (-1,5)
Bayrou 5 % (-3)
Borloo 4 % (-4,5)
Villepin 5 % (=)
Sarkozy 23/44 % (-2,5/-1)
Le Pen 18,5 % (+4,5)

Turnout : 76 %

Arthaud 1 % (-0,5)
Besancenot 7 % (+0,5)
Mélenchon 6,5 % (+0,5)
Strauss-Kahn 29 %/63 % (+2/+1)
Joly 6,5 % (-0,5)
Bayrou 5 % (-1)
Borloo 4 % (-1)
Villepin 3,5 % (-0,5)
Sarkozy 21/37 % (-3/-1)
Le Pen 17 % (+3,5)

Turnout : 80 %

Arthaud 1 %
Besancenot 8 %
Mélenchon 7,5 %
Montebourg 15 %
Joly 8 %
Bayrou 6 %
Borloo 5 %
Villepin 5,5 %
Sarkozy 25 %
Le Pen 19 %

Turnout : 72 %

[Antonio the Sixth]

All this seems too beautiful to be true...

[big bad fab]

CSA 21-22 Feb., sample of 1005 RV

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 6
DSK 28
Joly 4
Bayrou 5.5
Villepin 5
Morin 1
Sarkozy 23
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 18

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 6
DSK 33
Joly 5
Bayrou 4.5
Villepin 5
Morin 1
Fillon 18
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 18

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 6
DSK 34
Joly 4
Bayrou 5.5
Villepin 9
Morin 1
Copé 12
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 19

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 7
DSK 33
Joly 5
Bayrou 5.5
Villepin 9
Morin 1
Borloo 12
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 18

Of course, it's so obvious that Sarkozy will be the candidate that Copé and Borloo have bad results as this seems so weird they can be the UMP candidate. But still, that's quite bad for them.

What's fascinating is that the main winner in case Sarkozy isn't candidate is again... DSK himself !
And, of course, Villepin if it's not Fillon.

(What's irritating is this stupidly high Besancenot...)


Now that DSK is candidate (of course, guys !), with Aubry PM or Finance minister and Fabius Foreign Affairs minister or Speaker of the National Assembly,
will Hollande be able to gather more leftist voters in the primary ?

It's of course doubtful, but he was dear to old activists inside the PS and he might be able to appear more central inside the PS (almost like Aubry is for now) than DSK.
Of course, he will have a fine exposure after the cantonales results.

Obviously, Hamon may be candidate and, then, it's over. But that would be a fine paradox to see Hamon making DSK win more easily !

Or do you think Delanoë could take this role of a more leftist candidate against DSK ?
If Hollande slows down and if Aubry succeeds in keeping Hamon calm (in DSK's name), Delanoë could be tempted.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Delanoë seems gone now, he would have a hard time looking credible now. And please God spare us of the infernal (former) couple.

[Hash]

Delanoë seems gone now, he would have a hard time looking credible now. And please God spare us of the infernal (former) couple.

I was shocked when I saw that he was thinking of running. What the hell does he think he's doing? He had his prime, golden chance in 2008 but ruined it when he turned to be a totally incompetent campaigner who couldn't even beat a stupid drug addict. His little aura, thank the Lord, has passed. Now we just need to quash Collomb's remaining aura. Two overrated useless mayors.

[Hash]

Mini-shuffle:

MAM is dumped, replaced by Juppe. Juppe is replaced by Longuet (president of the senate UMP group). Claude Gueant becomes Interior Minister, and I don't know what they'll do with the Vichyist.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is this "DSK - Will he? Won't he?" boring anyone else?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is this "DSK - Will he? Won't he?" boring anyone else?

65 million people.