France 2012: the official thread

[Math]

Isn't there a lasting little momentum towards Hollande ?
He may really finished as ideally positioned if Aubry isn't a candidate...

In the last TNS Sofres barometer, he is up by 6 points at 40% and tied with DSK among left-wing supporters (60%), but Aubry is still a little ahead (65%). What is impressive is how he managed to leave the 25%-30% area in the last few months.

[big bad fab]

So what's this "Porschegate"?

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.

Leftist new medias (Mediapart, Rue89, Slate, Le Post,... with their old predecessor Le Canard Enchaîné) tend to think socialist leaders don't have the right to be wealthy...

[Leftbehind]

So what's this "Porschegate"?

DSK photographed driving a Porsche (which wasn't even his, in the end). French people tend to think left-wingers don't have the right to be wealthy.

It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

[big bad fab]

This is one year before the election. Let's begin the 2012 Big Bad Tracker !

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly.

I'll keep 3 trackers with DSK, Aubry and Hollande, until the scene is clearer. But I'll compute an aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate, including, at the moment, 0.6 DSK, 0.3 Hollande and 0.1 Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate (this ponderation will change quickly and periodically).

Besancenot isn't candidate any longer so, for the moment, there is an anonymous NPA candidate.

I'll publish this tracker every Monday (I'll see in September if I need to publish it more often).

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and will lose a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP seem to be a bit less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; etc).
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...


9 May DSK sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,90
NPA   3,19
Mélenchon   4,47
Chevènement   0,90
DSK   26,19
Hulot   8,54
Bayrou   5,67
Borloo   6,84
Villepin   4,46
Sarkozy   18,77
Dupont-Aignan   1,00
Le Pen   19,07


9 May Aubry sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,64
NPA   3,12
Mélenchon   4,41
Chevènement   0,82
Aubry   21,26
Hulot   8,55
Bayrou   6,23
Borloo   9,83
Villepin   4,88
Sarkozy   19,96
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Le Pen   19,59


9 May Hollande sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,79
NPA   3,14
Mélenchon   4,43
Chevènement   0,86
Hollande   21,50
Hulot   8,71
Bayrou   6,14
Borloo   9,00
Villepin   4,86
Sarkozy   19,57
Dupont-Aignan   1,00
Le Pen   20,00


9 May generic socialist sub-tracker:

Arthaud   0,8
NPA   3,2
Mélenchon   4,4
Chevènement   0,9
PS   24,2
Hulot   8,6
Bayrou   5,9
Borloo   8,0
Villepin   4,6
Sarkozy   19,2
Dupont-Aignan   1,0
Le Pen   19,3

Antonio, I'll let you draw a fine graph.
With 3 weeks behind, you'll be able to start it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fivethirtyeight, french version !

I'll try to build some nice graph with a trendline when we have some more data. Maybe your methodology isn't 100% scientific, but it makes enough sense.

It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.

[big bad fab]

Fivethirtyeight, french version !

I'll try to build some nice graph with a trendline when we have some more data. Maybe your methodology isn't 100% scientific, but it makes enough sense.

Let's say a French version of RealClearPolitics... more accurate, both politically and scientifically ...

It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.

Oh, oh, it seems you're already taken by the heat of the campaign, Antonio... Believe, it's psychologically very hard to see bad periods for your champion, but you have to live with them until the second round ....

Each time Sarkozy was under Royal in 2007, it was excruciating... Well, it was Sarkozy, BUT it was Royal .

[Leftbehind]

It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.

No, the Right prefer that. The Left prefer socialists that help the poor but tend to be understandably turned off by socialists that live too comfortably, parading their opulent purchases (see: Two Jags). So neither side are enthused by champagne socialists, yet the neoliberal redneck doesn't alienate his vote.

[big bad fab]

ViaVoice poll for Libération, 11-25 April, sample 411 LV among 800 considering themselves from the "left" among a total sample of 2680

Wishes of victory in the socialist primary:

DSK 39
Hollande 20
Royal 11
Montebourg 5
Valls 2
other 7 (I really wonder which ones... Pierret ? )
don't know 16

Hollande 29
Aubry 23
Royal 13
Montebourg 5
Valls 3
other 11
don't know 16

This poll has been made "a long time ago", so take it with a grain of salt, though DSK is still clearly ahead.
Hollande is really competitive against Aubry and in a second round, he is now able to beat her, I think.

What is surprising is the numbers of those answering "another candidate"... But I shouldn't be surprised as many "likely voters in the socialist primary" doesn't even know who was Mitterrand...

[big bad fab]

TNS-Sofres poll for Canal +, 3-4 May 2011, sample 975

Yeah, let's publish this one too, though we don't even know how much socialists there are in the sample and though primary candidates or possible candidates have an advantage over other big ones (Fabius, Delanoë, who are probably both closer to Mitterrand, at least in their political methods).

Who is the closest to Mitterrand "in his ideas and proposals" ? (don't ask me to whom "his" refers...)

among the whole sample / among socialists:

Hollande 18 / 23
DSK 16 / 20
Aubry 13 / 18
Royal 9 / 10
Fabius 8 / 6
Delanoë 5 / 7
Valls 2 / 1
Montebourg 1 / 1
Hamon 1 / 0
don't know+ no one 27 / 14

This poll has allowed Hollande to gain some favourable noise in medias.

[big bad fab]

2 other useless polls, considering I'm not so sure Fabius or Jospin still mean something to many French people... and considering questions and how they are read or heard have of course a great influence.

IFOP poll, for France-Soir, 3-5 May 2011, sample 1042

Who is the most faithful heir of Mitterrand ?
(among the whole sample / among socialists - number unknown, BTW)

DSK 22 / 27
Hollande 19 / 22
Jospin 19 / 20
Aubry 9 / 18
Lang 14 / 6
Fabius 10 / 4
Royal 8 / 8


BVA poll, for 20 Minutes, 6-7 May 2011, sample 1010

Who is the most like Mitterrand ?
(among the whole sample / among voters from the left)

Hollande 32 / 27
DSK 30 / 28
Aubry 18 / 20
Royal 12 / 10

(limited list)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who is the closest to Mitterrand "in his ideas and proposals" ? (don't ask me to whom "his" refers...)

In his "ideas and proposals" ? Haha, good one. Does this refer to the 1971's Mitterrand who wanted "rupture with capitalism", or the old wise guy who campaigned for a "united France" in 1988 ?

Basically one could pick anyone on this list and it would make some sense.

It's not just the French, no-one likes a champagne socialist.

Of course. People always prefer a neoliberal hack who act like rednecks, to a guy who are not ashamed to live comfortably and whose policies whould actually help the poor.

No, the Right prefer that. The Left prefer socialists that help the poor but tend to be understandably turned off by socialists that live too comfortably, parading their opulent purchases (see: Two Jags). So neither side are enthused by champagne socialists, yet the neoliberal redneck doesn't alienate his vote.

In France we've gone far beyond the fact of "parading opulent purchases". It's actually the media who recklessly search for any sign of wealth among every politician.
I deeply despise ostentatory consumption and I think a politician who is always trying to show how "succesful" he is, is unworthy to be elected to anything. But I also think there's nothing wrong with being wealthy whatever your political opinions are.

[big bad fab]

Harris Interactive poll, for LCP-AN, 6-9 May 2011, sample 1624 (but Internet poll)

Another one... Pollsters should really thank Mitterrand...

"Who embodies Mitterrand's heritage in the best way ?"
(among the whole sample / among voters from the left / among former Mitterrand voters !)

None 44 / 34 / 30
Hollande 15 / 24 / 26
DSK 14 / 15 / 15
Aubry 10 / 13 / 16
Royal 5 / 8 / 6
Montebourg 2 / 4 / 3
Valls 2 / 0 / 1
don't know 8 / 2 / 2

Fabius, Jospin, Delanoë, Lang, etc. weren't tested.

All this phase of "history rewriting" (Mitterrand was a master in this "art"...) seems to be globally neutral, as people essentially answers to another question (which is your favourite candidate ?)...
But, in detail, it's slightly positive for Hollande, because of the media noise and because it's another small piece feeding his momentum.

Though, in 2 weeks, all of this will have been forgotten .

[big bad fab]

LH2 poll, for Le Nouvel Observateur, 6-7 May 2011, sample 970

Le Nouvel Obs has money to waste, it seems...
All the more that they haven't proposed another possible answer: in late May-early June, just after the G8.

Anyway...

When DSK should be officially candidate ?
(among the whole sample / among voters from the left / among self-proclaimed socialists)

Now 26 / 27 / 32
In late June, when the period is officially opened 37 / 43 / 44
In the autumn (WTF ? candidacies are closed on the 13th of July !)) 19 / 16 / 15
don't know 18 / 14 / 9

DSK should resign, to show his interest for the presidential election 43 / 45 / 44
DSK should stay in the IMF for the moment, it's an important post 46 / 45 / 49

Pundits in LH2 are able to draw many clever conclusions from these numbers...
When questions are stupid, when people answer contradictory things, as for me, I'm unable to say anything .

[Peter the Lefty]

I wish DSK would just say whether he's running or not already, as this will-he-or-won't-he speculation is making his poll numbers fall. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wish DSK would just say whether he's running or not already, as this will-he-or-won't-he speculation is making his poll numbers fall. 

Yeah, I feel the same way of course... I don't know what strategy he's following by constantly delaying his announcement, but it doesn't seem to be working.

[big bad fab]

I wish DSK would just say whether he's running or not already, as this will-he-or-won't-he speculation is making his poll numbers fall. 

Yeah, I feel the same way of course... I don't know what strategy he's following by constantly delaying his announcement, but it doesn't seem to be working.

He wants to be seen as a "great among the greats" in Deauville and maybe a bit later.

All the buzz around cars, flats, houses, etc. may eventually be a good thing for him because it's occurring NOW: better sooner rather than later...

[Lief 🗽]

oops

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/imf_boss_strauss_kahn_arrested_in_Kbd7uAi594vbej3oORXfcJ

[Insula Dei]

I was going to post about the PR and the UMP, but this seems less important now for whatever reason....

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

oops

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/imf_boss_strauss_kahn_arrested_in_Kbd7uAi594vbej3oORXfcJ

Yeah, that could hurt the Socialists.

[Insula Dei]

On the other hand, it is the Post, and who is stupid enough to pull sh**t like that when you're in DSK's position?

[Foucaulf]

On the other hand, it is the Post, and who is stupid enough to oull sh**t like that when you're in DSK's position?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's also on the front page of the Times. Think DSK can go back to France even if he tried?

[Hash]

People still think that sex scandals matter in France as much as they do in the US.

[Lief 🗽]

Uh, there's a difference between a "sex scandal" and raping a hotel maid.

[You kip if you want to...]

"I'm the odds-on favourite to become the president of the 5th most economically powerful country on the planet. So, i'm just going to rape this maid, because no one's going to find out about it." Come on, it's tabloid fluff. (I hope.)

If Le Parti Socialiste lose this one... the European centre-left is just beyond help! Ou est... Hollande?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, this is inconvenient. For me, that is. Because I moved to a new flat last week and my internet access is... er... patchy (and will be for about a month). Which is less than great when this sort of thing happens, for the usual reasons.

So.

Please behave yourselves and all that.