France 2012: the official thread

[tpfkaw]

DSK has a whole lot of empathy and compassion for working-class people, it seems.

Anyhoo, with him out of the picture, looks like 2002 all over again.  Who'da thunk?

[Foucaulf]

That last post was a rather ignomious introduction, so I should actually contribute to this thread.

I've paid attention to French politics for a year or so. First I was amused how the far-left was a political force. Then I read about cumul des mandats, cohabitation, le FN and the socialists shooting themselves in the foot. What a mess!

To me, the winner of the présidentielle is only relevant wrt to Europe and the macroeconomy. No one is willing to address the social stratification of France save for the far right, as misguided as they are. For this reason I could care less about DSK's rape scandal - let Hollande take his place.

Perhaps I'm misguided in my cynicism. I only recently witnessed the French's love for striking, and I'm not sure if Mélenchon and the other left-wing bunch have publicized themselves. But then one has Le Pen on the other side, and I wonder: can politics even address France's malaise anymore?

[Gustaf]

The idea that people are too rational to do stupid stuff when running for office has never been correct. Look at John Edwards, Tiger Woods, Richard Nixon and so on and so forth.

But I suppose it might be French customs not really mixing with American.

[beneficii]

According to Reuters, Strauss-Kahn has been formally arrested and charged with criminal sexual act, attempted rape, and unlawful imprisonment by the State of New York.  If convicted of all 3, he could be looking at some serious prison time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So yeah, I'm kind of shocked and I must say this affair will probably ruin my holidays that begin just today.

Anyways, he is innocent until proven guilty. I have serious reasons to believe he has nothing to do with these accusations, especially because I've seen nothing that would indicate he'd be able to do such a thing (no, cheating has absolutely nothing to do with raping). And then, why in the world would he do that ? You can't say what you want about DSK, but certainly not that he is an idiot who didn't realize the consequences of such an act.

You know I'm not fond of conspiracy theories, but you won't deny that this scandal comes extremely opportunely for some people.

Anyways, I trust the justice and I know that if he's innocent, he will be acquitted.

[minionofmidas]

Anyways, I trust the justice and I know that if he's innocent, he will be acquitted.

You trust the justice of New York state?

That's... remarkable.

Mind you, I've no opinion of what's really going on here. The guy drives a Porsche, so he presumably rapes people, too.

[The Mikado]

The idea that people are too rational to do stupid stuff when running for office has never been correct. Look at John Edwards, Tiger Woods, Richard Nixon and so on and so forth.

But I suppose it might be French customs not really mixing with American.

As deplorable as John Edwards is, he never raped anyone.  I mean, as Chris Rock once said, rape is number 2 on the scale of bad things.  There's murder, then there's rape.  This isn't a standard scandal at all...outside of Moshe Katsav, I can't name a prominent politician this past decade brought up on rape charges (one of you will prove me wrong).

[Gustaf]

The idea that people are too rational to do stupid stuff when running for office has never been correct. Look at John Edwards, Tiger Woods, Richard Nixon and so on and so forth.

But I suppose it might be French customs not really mixing with American.

As deplorable as John Edwards is, he never raped anyone.  I mean, as Chris Rock once said, rape is number 2 on the scale of bad things.  There's murder, then there's rape.  This isn't a standard scandal at all...outside of Moshe Katsav, I can't name a prominent politician this past decade brought up on rape charges (one of you will prove me wrong).

That's irrelevant as regards questions of intelligence though.

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady. I'm sure our charming resident sexists can add on similar ideas.

My high school French teacher worked as an au pair in France and the dad of that family tried to force himself on her. It was no biggie in his eyes.

(and, I can mention Zuma to prove you wrong)

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady. I'm sure our charming resident sexists can add on similar ideas.

My high school French teacher worked as an au pair in France and the dad of that family tried to force himself on her. It was no biggie in his eyes.

(and, I can mention Zuma to prove you wrong)

Thank you Gustaf for providing your usual stereotypes. And no, your now famous French teacher isn't an evidence of anything.

If you're interested in discussing about facts, let us know.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The idea that people are too rational to do stupid stuff when running for office has never been correct. Look at John Edwards, Tiger Woods, Richard Nixon and so on and so forth.

But I suppose it might be French customs not really mixing with American.

As deplorable as John Edwards is, he never raped anyone.  I mean, as Chris Rock once said, rape is number 2 on the scale of bad things.  There's murder, then there's rape.  This isn't a standard scandal at all...outside of Moshe Katsav, I can't name a prominent politician this past decade brought up on rape charges (one of you will prove me wrong).

That's irrelevant as regards questions of intelligence though.

I don't want to be bigoted but what is rape in NY might not be considered rape by a French bigshot.

As the saying goes, a lady who says no means maybe, a lady who says maybe means yes and a lady who says yes isn't a lady. I'm sure our charming resident sexists can add on similar ideas.

My high school French teacher worked as an au pair in France and the dad of that family tried to force himself on her. It was no biggie in his eyes.

(and, I can mention Zuma to prove you wrong)

WTF are you talking about? Rape is rape, period. We aren't talking here about an Arab seikh or an African king where the cultures about the role of woman are vastly different.
We are talking about a French politician, who already had trouble in the past with sexual scandals, so he could hardly consider himself above suspicion.

[big bad fab]

Of course, in France, sex-related scandals don't usually have any influence.
But this is a little bit different, as it's not just betraying his wife, it might be a sexual aggression.
Our society is so perverse and the media world is so corrupting and so many people now know how to use it for their own advantage (when you're a "victim", you can "write" a book, sell your story for TV biopics, etc.) that I can't believe it's true.
Maybe the woman knew his past of divorces and mistresses make her story easier to believe.

But this "story" is now all around French medias. Goebbels is always proved right nowadays.

What is more, Libération has already written an Internet column saying this is over for him... "A huge waste"...
That makes me say that DSK is attacked not from the right, but from the left and the far-left.
And Aubry will try to benefit from it, that's what I find worrying.

What I find disgusting is that the same who tried to protect this piece of crap of Assante (and piece of crap not because he is so-called sexually harrassed some girl) are now so hungry to finish DSK off...

I don't see how DSK will be able to save his image and his good polls.
His strategy was to stay in the IMF until at least the end of May or even the end of June, to burnish his international image.
Well, even the IMF is over for him, now.

I'm a UMP-PCD member, but I'm sad today.
The problem is that, in our media system, we can't believe anything from anyone any longer....
(of course, if it's true, it's disgusting, but it's not, it's equally disgusting)


I really hope Hollande will be the winner now, and not these stupid Aubry and Hamon.
But it happens a bit too early for Hollande: he has the momentum but not enough to be sure to trounce Aubry.
And DSK followers are really angry those days at Hollande.
There is a risk of "anybody but Hollande" right now.

Royal will think she has chances again. And she wants to kill her "old sweety François".
DSK followers are, for some of them, less social-democrat than Hollande himself and will join Aubry more easily.
The left of the party will be very happy.
And Aubry will say: "now, this is the party's superior interest which is at stake, let's have its first secretary be candidate..."
And she was the only one to talk with DSK by phone every week, remember ?

And what about Fabius ?

[Verily]

People still think that sex scandals matter in France as much as they do in the US.

If he's in prison in New York, he can't campaign in France.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

[Frodo]

So what does all this mean for President Sarkozy and the UMP?

[Franzl]

People still think that sex scandals matter in France as much as they do in the US.

If he's in prison in New York, he can't campaign in France.

And if this turns out to be true.....calling it simply a "sex scandal" isn't really right.

[big bad fab]

Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.

[big bad fab]

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin ).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

[Verily]

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin ).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

[Franzl]

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

Haven't thought of that.....but, unfortunately, probably true

[big bad fab]

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin ).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, yeah, I don't know what to think too. It could be a conspiracy, it could be true, it could be anything... But in these situations you are always presumed guilty.

What I feel the most shameful is those who say "even if he's innoncent, it's over for him". That might be factually true (one month left for primary candidacies), but it strikes me as horrendously cynical.

If it's a lie, I can only pray for it to be discovered quickly. If he is rehabilitated, he should have no reason to abandon the race. But sadly that doesn't seem to be happening.

Disgusting in any case.

[Franzl]

Thank you Fab, I'm glad to see we are in agreement there.

You're welcome.
I respect men and women, whatever their opinions (though I have some exceptions, like Panzergirl and though I must acknowledge it's difficult for me to have great consideration for Besancenot, Bayrou, Hamon and Villepin ).

What I feel very badly is the media and Internet curée... It's just disgusting.
And even if it's true, why not wait for some sounder pieces of facts ?

I'm surprised that the first comments are only in 2 categories:
- DSK is sexually obsessed (Panzergirl, Bernard Debré, the Internet mob)
- it's a conspiracy (Boutin, Le Guen, some socialists rank-and-file).
Why not consider an attempt by one person to have some celebrity ?
This is what I think most likely (though not certain at all, don't make me say what I haven't said).

No one in New York knows who DSK is well enough to think that accusing him of rape would get them celebrity.

It seems that medias from all over the world, including the US, have big titles on this.

After it happened, though. I'm certain many if not most New Yorkers have only heard of his name since this news item came out.

Why should some random hotel maid get such an idea?

[Frodo]

Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.

So Sarkozy (and the UMP by extension) is screwed no matter what. 

[big bad fab]

Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.

So Sarkozy (and the UMP by extension) is screwed no matter what. 

All the polls aren't so clear, but it's anyway razor-thin for him.

[Hash]

Still not all the results, but this was the latest poll, by IFOP, for Le JDD, yesterday (it was before the affair, but don't know when exactly; 933 RVs among a total sample of 1010)

DSK 26 / Hollande 23
Le Pen 22 / 23
Sarkozy 21.5 / 22
Hulot 7 / 7.5
Borloo 5.5 / 6.5
Bayrou 5.5 / 6
Mélenchon 5.5 / 5
Villepin 4 / 3.5
Chevènement 1 / 1.5
NPA candidate 1 / 1
Arthaud 0.5 / 0.5
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5

I'll re-post it when it's complete,
but still the same conclusions: nothing is done for the first 2 places, Hollande slightly on the rise, DSK already down, Hulot high and dangerous for the PS, NPA very low without Besancenot.

Some different trends: Borloo not so successful, Villepin very low, Le Pen on the rise again (so Sarkozy is again ousted even if slightly less bad).

And LOL at Chevènement's attempt to come back.

So Sarkozy (and the UMP by extension) is screwed no matter what. 

Yeah, ask President Balladur and President Jospin for more information on that.