France 2012: the official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any news about how the election is going ?

[Math]

If it's Joly, it's another good news for socialists.
She'll self-destruct the Greens and won't steal many votes. For the negotiations for seats in parliamentarian elections, this is fine for the PS...
And she'll fire at Sarkozy all the time.

I believe her more ethical than economic agenda will made her very capable to attract all these young urban professional voters who contributed to the successes of EELV in the last European, regional and cantonal elections (see Nantes, Toulouse, Rennes, Lyon, Paris, Grenoble, Angers, Bordeaux, Caen during the cantonal). Sure this is not a very numerous group, but at the end of the day this is one that will more surely solidify around EELV than all those very diverse potential Hulot voters who will go back to where they came from after he lost/withdraw.

[big bad fab]

If it's Joly, it's another good news for socialists.
She'll self-destruct the Greens and won't steal many votes. For the negotiations for seats in parliamentarian elections, this is fine for the PS...
And she'll fire at Sarkozy all the time.

I believe her more ethical than economic agenda will made her very capable to attract all these young urban professional voters who contributed to the successes of EELV in the last European, regional and cantonal elections (see Nantes, Toulouse, Rennes, Lyon, Paris, Grenoble, Angers, Bordeaux, Caen during the cantonal). Sure this is not a very numerous group, but at the end of the day this is one that will more surely solidify around EELV than all those very diverse potential Hulot voters who will go back to where they came from after he lost/withdraw.

You're right, in the long term, the Greens should prefer candidates like Joly.
But, well, she has a bad image and when she speak, she will scare many other potential voters.
And there is a real stake for EE-LV: under 5%, no public money !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently we'll get the e-voting results by 17h CEST. Barring a fraud of epic proportions (but I wouldn't entirely exclude it) Joly is headed to win, or at least to go to the runoff in a very good situation.

Surprises like this one make me gain back some trust in humanity.

[Math]

Eva Joly : 49,75%
Nicolas Hulot : 40,22%
Henri Stoll : 5,02%
Stéphane Lhomme : 4,64%

She missed it by 60 votes...

[big bad fab]

What if some RVs who didn't vote eventually cast a ballott for the 2nd round ?

I mean, she'll win, that's quite sure, but, after all, nothing is entirely lost for Hulot.

And, of course, there is the possibility that he'll be candidate outside EE-LV, destroying himself, but also EE-LV as a whole.

Anyway, that's probably the best result the socialists could expect : Hulot down, but Joly forced to a second round, no big majority, a breat disappointment for Hulot, who has quitted his "business" and who may now look forward to becoming a candidate of his own.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL Hulot. Epic fail is epic.

I still don't get how the two nobodies can get almost 10% together.

[big bad fab]

Don't see EE-LV as a normal party !

Joly is ahead because of old Greens, of "traditionalists", of ideologues, of usual leftists inside the historic wing of "Les Verts".

Stoll is very representative of this very old line of municipal ecologism, the ecology of what is possible, the ecology of the neighbourhood.
Of course, he is not a Waechter, but still.
Alain Bombard was a bit like that, or Andrée Buchmann (another Alsatian).
5% is a fair result for him.

Lhomme, on the contrary, is rather low: I would have seen him at 10% alone, as the "activist" trend (Greenpeace, all the anti-nuclear guys, the anti-GMOs, etc) is pretty... active.

Well, I'm personally quite happy that this unkind and utterly proud man, Hulot, whom I practised when I worked inside Paris' civil service (and tried to -and partly succeded in- erase the local public subsidy for his foundation ).
But Joly is an old and very intolerant woman, no less proud than Hulot... that's not really better.
Anyway, this party is doomed with ideologues.
More reasonable people like Cochet and... errr... well... Cochet... do not manage to take power inside it.

Anyways, again, I think it's a good result for the PS.

The only good news of the day, as Lagarde, the hostages and the ministerial shuffle (and Tsonga ) have already put Aubry's announcement in the forgotten past of information flow.

Have you seen that Moscovici said he has made his decision but won't announce it before tomorrow morning ?
ROFL !
I "hope" for him that the hostages in Niger won't be liberated before Friday !
Fortunately, Bartoli has already been beaten .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Joly strikes me as a kind of French Di Pietro, with strong stances on justice and fight against corruption. Maybe that makes her "intolerant" in some way, but I think she is 100% right. France is not as awful as Italy, but the way powerful people are treated by justice is pretty sickening (see Pasqua, Chirac, etc...).

I'll be voting for Moscovici in the 1st round if he runs, but I doubt he will. He knows he can't win.

[Math]

I'll be voting for Moscovici in the 1st round if he runs, but I doubt he will. He knows he can't win.

Well, it seems he just endorsed Hollande.

[big bad fab]

Maybe I should make a DSK tracker again ?
SARKOZY PRESIDENT !

Candidacies at the PS primary are closed on the 13th of July: hurry up, Dominique !

(even if Hash is this thread's master, I'd say "please do not post about the case itself here, just about its possible political consequences")

I don't know precisely if you have to declare your candidacy yourself, or if internal rules are OK with another person filling your candidacy in your name, provided you've got all the signatures you need (no problem for DSK, as he has many absolute fans, like Michèle Sabban or François Pupponi, or even Le Guen, it seems, who are ready to sign something on July 13th, 23:59, if need be...

For the PS, the problem is more after the 13th of July:
what if DSK exits all this affair in a not so bad shape ? (well, even if Diallo made her little trick -remember what was my first thought about all this - the sperm is here...)
What if he comes back not as a rapist, but just as another "hot guy" ?

He may be tarnished enough not to be the Saviour as before, but not enough to be sure that Hollande or Aubry are, after all, a good choice.
Hollande or Aubry may well be transformed in a sort of political Damocles...

And what if he wins in front of US justice, just to come back while the primary campaign is on or, worse, while Hollande or Aubry is nominated ?

Wonderful suspense !

Yeah, really, 2011 is far better than 2012 for the French presidential election !

(and now that Joly may be the Green candidate, it will be interesting to hear her on DSK !)

[beneficii]

Could Strauss-Kahn still be in the running?  Breaking news:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/case-against-dominique-strausskahn-near-collapse-2305291.html

[big bad fab]

FTR, Peillon rallied Hollande, yesterday.
Well, Hollande was in real good shape, as Aubry's announcement was completely sidelined.


But, of course, now, all may have to be restarted again...

Even Jospin has just said that DSK might come back .
Of course, Le Guen and Sabban. And... Borloo
Sabban has already called for the primaries to be suspended.

FWIW, I personally think it's too late for DSK. His image is really tarnished now.

But he may be a great nuisance for the PS. In this respect, he has still a great political role to play.
In normal times, I'd say he would himself drop. But, now, he has a personal stake: he must wash his name, including politically. So, he'll be around for many months, even if he isn't a candidate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is the most stressful campaign I've ever seen. At this point, I really hoped he was guilty, even though my guts have never believed it.

[ZuWo]

Even if DSK is found innocent in the NY incident, isn't there the allegation that he assaulted a French journalist in a sexual way? So if he returns to the political stage, there obiously still exists a chance for his opponents to bring him down. That's why, although I must say I'm far from being an expert in French politics, I'd argue there's a long way to go for DSK to become a real contender for the nomination again.

[big bad fab]

I've also said it and I agree with you ZuWo.
I think he's done.

But when you see that Julien Dray (he knows well....) said DSK would want to "eat the world" if he isn't condemned, it 's right: before, some doubted of DSK's real will to be a candidate and spend a very harsh period of one year campaigning, being attacked, etc.

Of course, now, he would be VERY determined to try to wash his name POLITICALLY.
Hence, maybe he wouldn't be a candidate in the end. But he'd mess everything up.

Already, Dray, Lang, Le Guen, Sabban (sure, not the big big guns) have said a comeback is entirely possible and the PS needs DSK...

Aubry is "very happy"... You betcha !!!

Look, Aubry shouldn't have been a candidate if DSK had been one.
Now, how will she position herself ?

It's a bit less negative for Hollande, except that, again, some moderates inside the party, the "social democrats", will be partly tempted to go back to DSK.
Maybe not those who weren't strauss-kahnians, like Peillon; but it'd be less simple for Moscovici or Collomb (and of course Cambadélis or Destot who have joined Aubry).

These news are very negative for the PS and for Aubry.
Not per se. Not in front of the French.
But because all the apparatchiki are now running in every direction. It will be a complete mess and trust Royal to worsen it .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vance didn't drop the charges. The next audience is on july 18, candidacy deadline for the primaries is on july 13, so that's over. Don't know if it's good or bad news...

[big bad fab]

Come on, that's not over: there may be no audience...
And many leaders are now ready to postpone the deadline for candidacies...

Aubry, Hamon, Désir are really embarrassed tonight.
All the strauss-kahnians are ready for a postponement.
Hollande "isn't against it at all".

The problem for socialists is now to see if the mess about procedures will mutate in mess among people, as usual. Or, maybe, for the first time for a long time, they'll be able to remain united.

Fortunately for them, Sarkozy is so hated...

FTR, Anne Mansouret, Tristane Banon's mother, has decided she won't be a candidate for PS primaries.
And Banon's lawyer says she may sue in France (but he's prudent and doesn't say she will do it).

[You kip if you want to...]

Let's be serious, as if he'd run now...

[big bad fab]

He won't be a candidate. That's not the problem.
The problem is all the mess among the apparatchiki,
the problem is the "if", even if this "if" never occurred...

[Antonio the Sixth]

He won't be a candidate. That's not the problem.
The problem is all the mess among the apparatchiki,
the problem is the "if", even if this "if" never occurred...

Oh, come on. The PS is stupid, but that's too much even for them...

[big bad fab]

He won't be a candidate. That's not the problem.
The problem is all the mess among the apparatchiki,
the problem is the "if", even if this "if" never occurred...

Oh, come on. The PS is stupid, but that's too much even for them...

Sure, the trip to beat Sarkozy will be excruciating, even though probably successful.

In the interest of our country, I sincerely hope that the one who wins won't be too exhausted, because there are many things to do (preventing from spending too much and saving money !).
If the socialists win (even Aubry), good luck to them in 2012.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No tracker today ?

[big bad fab]

Just wait a bit .

IPSOS poll for Le Point, 1-2 July 2011, sample 956

DSK's political future ?
25% certainly no future
26% not likely
(51% no)
28% likely
14% certainly
(42% yes)

Among leftists:
52% yes 44% no
Among socialists:
57% yes 40% no

It's amazing to see that the line of divide is entirely political.
Whatever the reality of facts (we still don't know if he raped her or if he accepted to bunga-bunga what could be a prostitute), it's rather unsavoury.
What is more, he may have big problems with his spendings and the money of his wife.
Still, leftists, and even more socialists, believe in a political future for him.

The only result that is not political:
"yes" is at 45% among men and only 39% among women. But the difference is tiny and I don't know if we can entail many explanations from these numbers.

Harris Interactive poll for Le Parisien, 1-2 July 2011, sample 1000

Do you wish DSK comes back one day on French political scene ?

49% yes
45% no

Among leftists: 60% yes, 38% no
Among socialists: 65% yes, 33% no

So, DSK will come back, even though we don't know if it is as a candidate.

But he will probably be a liability for the PS, now.
First, the medias won't let him quiet.
Second, many FN voters may well support Sarkozy in the second round after all: between 2 "evils",...
Third, Aubry is weakened as, either she has no more reason to be a candidate (if he is one), or she will have to act under the shadow of a tarnished man (if he isn't). And Royal -though she is doomed- is thinking that she may have her chance after all, in the new big mess; so will become nastier. In a nutshell, the primaries will be more tense than anticipated 3 days ago.

What I want to underline -but maybe I'm completely under the charm offensive of Hollande - is that the only one who has, from the beginning, chosen a good line is Hollande.
His "normal" presidency is again a good thing, in comparison with DSK's rock star system, full of money, and Sarkozy's bling bling excitement, full of void promises.

Again, all these thoughts must be put in perspective: Sarkozy is hugely, deeply, strongly rejected by many people.
I think he will lose.
But it will be hard for the PS...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, of course that's awful news for Aubry, and everything looks even messier now. Things really need to get clear soon or a catastrophe is quite likely.