France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #9 - 4 July 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin, Hulot to Joly, as he is always tested. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him.
As soon as pollsters test the new candidate of NPA, I'll include his name (Poutou).
Pollsters haven't tested Boutin and Nihous yet, but they'll probably be included soon.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
It's too early to revive a DSK tracker and, anyway, his old numbers wouldn't be adequate now.
            

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

4 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,69
NPA      0,91
Mélenchon   6,57
Chevènement   0,23
Aubry      25,33
Hulot      7,03
Bayrou      6,27
Borloo      7,93
Villepin      3,27
Sarkozy      21,95
Dupont-Aignan   0,64
Le Pen      19,19

      

      

4 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,84
NPA      0,71
Mélenchon   6,47
Chevènement   0,31
Hollande      27,97
Hulot      6,99
Bayrou      5,57
Borloo      7,33
Villepin      2,93
Sarkozy      21,65
Dupont-Aignan   0,64
Le Pen      18,60
   
      

      

4 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud      0,78
NPA      0,79
Mélenchon   6,51
Chevènement   0,28
PS      26,92
Hulot      7,00
Bayrou      5,85
Borloo      7,57
Villepin      3,07
Sarkozy      21,77
Dupont-Aignan   0,64
Le Pen      18,83

      

No new polls this week, so no big changes.
The socialists and Mélenchon are again at their highest.

All the rightists, except Sarkozy and Borloo, are at their lowest again.

Let's wait for Joly (no big change in the beginning probably, but a possible dip afterwards), for DSK possible comeback (less good for the PS) and for pollsters to begin testing Boutin and Nihous.


As for the second round tracker, I suspend it. There are really too few polls... Damn pollsters !

[big bad fab]

BVA poll for Le Nouvel Observateur, 1-2 July 2011, sample 860

Those who forecast a DSK candidacy:
63% no (42% not at all, 21% rather not)
31% yes (18% rather yes, 13% yes certainly)

Among leftists:
59% no
37% yes

Those who wish a DSK candidacy:
54% no (42% not at all, 12% rather not)
41% yes (23% rather yes, 18% yes certainly)

Among leftists:
48% no
50% yes

This is the problem, whatever the titles of the medias): the opinion is very polarized and the left is itself quite polarized, but with a majority in favour of DSK's comeback.

Of course, all these polls were made just after Friday 1st of July and this new wave of images, news and comments ad nauseam.

Tristane Banon will make the mess last longer, in a way that is also bad for Hollande it seems.

After all, Royal may appear as a "safe" candidate .
Sorry for this bad joke .

Seriously, imagine the right had Fillon as a candidate or Juppé... well, everything would be possible !
But with Sarkozy, the PS has still a big margin of mistakes, infightings and shenanigans before really losing...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's what it gives us !

Aubry :


Hollande :



On Fab's request, I've included Villepin despite his falling into utter irrelevancy. The 4 others are just insignificant (in both senses). Note that "Hulot" is likely outdated, and once the EELV runoff is held it will be time to change it into "Joly".

[Хahar 🤔]

Why is Le Pen is dark red? It makes it look like he's on the left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is Le Pen is dark red? It makes it look like he's on the left.

It was supposed to be brown, not dark red. But indeed it's quite hard to distinguish.

[big bad fab]

And Le Pen is a she, Xahar...

Fine graphs: trends are clear.

Joly will be substituted to Hulot as soon as pollsters take her into account in all their polls.
It's still not the case.

Thanks for having included Villepin: everybody who is above 2.5% deserves to be here .

[Keystone Phil]

So what's the deal with DSK? Is he coming back or at least strongly leaning one way or the other? Would he even have much of a chance in the primary?

[Хahar 🤔]

And Le Pen is a she, Xahar...

Ah, yes. I get the Les Pens confused.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what's the deal with DSK? Is he coming back or at least strongly leaning one way or the other? Would he even have much of a chance in the primary?

The left is split 50-50 about whether or not he should come back in the race (which is already a bad sign). Assuming he wants (and it's doubtful, though not impossible), he'll have a hard time for a lot of reasons : his image has still been degraded by this story, Martine Aubry (with whom he had an "agreement") has already declared, the deadline for candidacies is almost over and other PS bosses don't seem to want him back.

[big bad fab]

I wanted to share a personal analysis, FWIW.

More and more, I feel that Hollande is the "provincial" candidate against Aubry, who is becoming the "elite" candidate.

Of course, both belong to the political and civil service elite, but, as we all know, image is more important than reality.

1- In polls' numbers, you clearly see that Aubry is stronger among upper classes (and also among unemployed).
Hollande is stronger among workers, employees, shopkeepers and tradesmen, peasants, retirees.

2- Inside the PS, Hollande is more supported by local bigwigs outside Paris: Gérard Collomb, Jean-Marc Ayrault, François Rebsamen, François Patriat, Edmond Hervé, Michel Sapin, Ries, etc.
Aubry is more supported by national apparatchiki from Paris: Cambadélis, Bartolone, Hamon, Désir, Assouline, Lamy, etc.

Of course, there are many, many exceptions, as Moscovici, Cahuzac or Touraine (for Hollande) are more "Parisians" than "provincials"; and, conversely, Fabius, Destot, Hazan (for Aubry) are real local barons.
But the feeling is here more important.

3- The national medias are clearly behind Aubry (to the point of outrageous partiality, believe me): Libération, Le Monde, Le Nouvel Observateur, but also Rue89, Mediapart, Slate.
The regional press is more on Hollande's side (Le Télégramme, Sud-Ouest, La Montagne,...).

4- And then, the personal image is more balanced, as Aubry appears to be "close to people".
But, still, Hollande's humour (not really a great presidential quality, I know...), his lack of ministerial periods (more an asset than a liability I think...) and his long tenure as PS first secretary make him more "popular" than her, sometimes wrongly seen as first a minister, hence a Parisian, and second the daughter of Delors, hence an elite woman.

5- As for manifestoes, Aubry sticks to the party's one.
Hollande has his line of "normal" president, again fashionable with new episodes of DSK affair.

All these criterions may well be less important than I think.
But it's fine to think a bit about all this now, as the primary campaign is on and will be shorter than expected.
Only 6 weeks between late August and early October for the socialists to kill themselves (), that's not very long after all...

[Antonio the Sixth]

That makes sense, but honestly who cares ? As you said, it's all a matter of image.

[big bad fab]

I think nobody cares per se, but that it can count, if we remember this old trend in French politics: people against elites.
Of course, Hollande won't make his campaign on this in an explicit way, but it's like a background, that many people may feel almost unconsciously.

I may be wrong: Aubry may be seen as more serious and without any will to play the media game, which is a strength after 4 years of Sarkozy and after a Royal candidacy.

And, of course, those who will come to cast a ballot in the primary are likely to be more from the upper classes and from those who care a lot about politics.
And these primaries are for leftists, not for rightists or for the popular electorate of the FN.

But, still, I think there is something here.

[big bad fab]

In "other" news, but related to the question of Borloo's possible candidacy:

- Yvan Lachaud has just been elected to replace Sauvadet (new Civil Service minister) as head of the NC parliamentarian group.
He has received 13 votes, against 7 for Jean-Christophe Lagarde, 2 for Nicolas Perruchot and 2 for Philippe Folliot (don't cry, Hash ).
Lachaud is Morin's man, while Lagarde, nr.2 inside the NC, is now a devoted Borloo supporter.
(Perruchot is more a "liberal", in the Parti Républicain meaning of the word; Folliot is a firebrand outsider)

It's not really good news for Borloo, as Morin is trying to force a primary inside the new party, ARES (Alliance républicaine, écologiste et sociale).


The ARES, precisely, is more and more an UDF redux, I mean a smaller UDF, but with all the old trends.
- The Gauche Moderne (Jean-Marie Bockel) is the modern Parti Social-Démocrate (PSD)
- The Parti Radical (Borloo) is... the Parti Radical
- The Nouvau Centre (Morin) is a modern mix of CDS and Parti Républicain
- The Convention Démocrate (de Charette) is the current PPDF or Clubs Perspectives et Réalités
- I guess there will be "direct members", as the old Adhérents Directs.

The Alliance Centriste (Arthuis) is still outside the ARES, but will probably join it soon, and is a current CDS.

And, now, how surprising, the CNIP (Bourdouleix) may well join the ARES. In a way, it's a modern mix of Parti Républicain and old CNI. Of course, a former president of the CNIP is protesting agaisnt Bourdouleix's line, considering it's unreadable, as the CNIP was allied with the UMP, then Dupont-Aignan and even thought about supporting Boutin, in the recent years.

Nobody cares in France, but it's so exciting !

[big bad fab]

Speaking to myself again, I add that Jean-Michel Baylet, PRG leader, is a candidate to the primary organized by the PS.
Yes, this primary was intended to be enlarged to the whole left.

Not a good news for Hollande as some PRG parliamentarians (like Yvon Collin) had already rallied his candidacy.
Of course, Baylet won't make a Soviet score...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Baylet ? Really ? ROFL.

[big bad fab]

CSA poll for Les Echos, 5-6 July 2011, sample 1005

Do you wish a DSK candidacy ?

16% yes, completely
17% yes, rather
19% not really
43% not at all

Among socialists / among leftists
23 / 20
19 / 21
20 / 19
36 / 37

DSK is a gain in negative territory, even in the left.


OpinionWay poll for LCI and Le Figaro Magazine, 4-5 July 2011, sample 1002


Do you wish a DSK candidacy ?
35% yes
65% no

Among socialists:
55
45

Not exactly the same result, eh ?
Interesting to see that there is, in this poll, no real difference between men and women.


Do you think DSK will be a candidate ?
25% yes
74% no

among socialists:
31
69

So, we don't really know if DSK is in negative territory among the left, but we see that, though few have illusions on the possibility of a candidacy now, many on the left would still support such a candidacy.
This will fade away, probably, but that will still be a problem for the PS candidate's legitimacy if DSK is still around in September.

(BTW, that's personal, but it's worth saying it, once and for all: why on earth DSK doesn't write a simple letter to the president of the national committee in charge of the primaries' organization to confirm he won't be a candidate ?

He's not really kind towards the socialists : had I been a socialist, I would have hated him, just like I hated Villepin with his CPE in the spring of 2006, pushing the right on the verge of collapsing...)

Would (s)he be a good president ?
among the whole sample / among socialists
Hollande 50 / 81
Aubry 41 / 81
DSK 44 / 67
Royal 21 / 45

Interesting to see Hollande among people over 60 years old: 68% ! (Aubry 45%)
Aubry and Hollande are on a par among 25-34 and Aubry only leads slightly among 18-24.
Hollande has a 56% result among men and 44% among women, Aubry has 42% and 40%.

Among leftists (412), ballots cast for:
Hollande 38
DSK 33
Royal 16
Montebourg 9
Valls 4
don't know 12

Aubry 37
Hollande 35
Royal 15
Montebourg 8
Valls 5
don't know 11

Aubry seems to be slightly up.
As I've always said, Aubry has a central positioning inside the PS and controls the apparatus, so she is very well placed to win the primaries, despite the fact she is a candidate by default.

But Hollande would of course be a better candidate in the real election, considering the electoral sociology, the fact that he'd be able to steal votes on the centre-right and among retiress, hurting Sarkozy, and that he'd be able to be more centrist and to crush Sarkozy between himself and Panzergirl.

Again, it's likely that the primary will be razor-thin between Aubry and Hollande.
I'm hungry !

[Antonio the Sixth]

(BTW, that's personal, but it's worth saying it, once and for all: why on earth DSK doesn't write a simple letter to the president of the national committee in charge of the primaries' organization to confirm he won't be a candidate ?

He's not really kind towards the socialists : had I been a socialist, I would have hated him, just like I hated Villepin with his CPE in the spring of 2006, pushing the right on the verge of collapsing...)

Pretty much so.

[big bad fab]

LH2 poll for Yahoo!, 8-9 July 2011, sample 957

Just in time for tomorrow's tracker .

Hollande 29 / Aubry 26 / Royal 13.5
Sarkozy 21 / 21.5 / 23
Le Pen 13 / 15 / 15
Bayrou 11 / 10 / 13
Borloo 7.5 / 8 / 10
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 7
Joly 6 / 6 / 10
Villepin 3 / 4.5 / 4
Boutin 1 / 0.5 / 0
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1 / 1
Chevènement 1 / 1 / 2
Arthaud 1 / 1.5 / 1.5
Poutou 0.5 / 0 / 0

OK... so is Panzergirl really so down and Bayrou really so high ?
In 2007, a part of former Le Pen voters clearly voted for Bayrou, as he was perceived as a so-called anti-establishment candidate (it's not a joke... ).
Isn't the same phenomenon here or just a confirmation that LH2 isn't a great pollster ?

Mélenchon's recent surge isn't readable any longer in these results, while Poutou and Boutin, tested for the first time in an explicit way, are doing very bad.

No real surprise for the others: Villepin still bad, Joly a bit higher though not at Hulot's levels, Borloo slightly higher but not above 10, Hollande above Aubry. I don't even talk about Royal.

2nd round, as usual:
Hollande 60 Sarkozy 40
Aubry 58 Sarkozy 42

If the socialist win, who will you prefer as president ?

Among the whole sample / among socialists / among leftists / among rightists
Hollande 46 / 55 / 43 / 54
Aubry 33 / 39 / 46 / 16
none of them 15 / 3 / 7 / 27
don't know 6 / 3 / 4 / 3 (there is a problem here...)

And an original question:
DSK as PM ?
Among the whole sample / etc.
yes 35 / 46 / 39 / 31
no 63 / 53 / 60 / 67

So, no sex scandal in Matignon after 2012, please , even among the socialists.
Maybe DSK could join Tapie to become a comedian.
Or try to become TV anchor for a trash channel .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Pen at 15% ? If it's not an outlier, that's good news for sure. I guess Le Pen needs to constantly be in the news to survive, but recent times have been so eventful that it was impossible for the media to keep on with their "Le Pen's irresistible rise" narrative.

So you'll start including Boutin in the tracker ? Fun.

[Beet]

I read an article that said Le Pen was taking some of the Socialists' voters because she promised tariffs. Also she is against the euro.

Suppose that Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy were forced to leave the euro, where would this leave Le Pen? Could the National Front then claim vindication, saying it had been right all along? Or would the mainstream parties be able to adjust to the situation and co-opt the protectionist issue and the euro issue?

[Antonio the Sixth]

French politics are far more about image than about issues. If Le Pen is so high among working class, it's less because of her stances than because of her style (populism, etc...).

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #10 - 11 July 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. Boutin appears in this tracker.
Poutou is now the NPA candidate and he keeps all the previous numbers for Besancenot, Martin and anonymous NPA candidate.
Joly is substituted to Hulot and keeps his previous numbers (though she was sometimes tested on her own, but that would alter the other candidates numbers, which would be unfair).
Pollsters haven't tested Nihous yet, which is a surprise as it'll be easier for him to gather the 500 signatures than for Dupont-Aignan, even Arthaud, Boutin or Chevènement.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
Fortunately, there is no need to revive a DSK tracker and even less reason to follow a Royal tracker .
            

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

11 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,98
Poutou   0,64
Mélenchon   6,25
Chevènement   0,47
Aubry   25,61
Joly   6,50
Bayrou   7,65
Borloo   8,09
Villepin   3,64
Boutin   0,17
Sarkozy   21,66
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen   17,61
      

      

11 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,90
Poutou   0,64
Mélenchon   6,18
Chevènement   0,54
Hollande   28,50
Joly   6,49
Bayrou   7,45
Borloo   7,45
Villepin   2,87
Boutin   0,34
Sarkozy   21,42
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen   16,47

   
      

      

11 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   0,93
Poutou   0,64
Mélenchon   6,21
Chevènement   0,51
PS   27,35
Joly   6,49
Bayrou   7,53
Borloo   7,71
Villepin   3,18
Boutin   0,27
Sarkozy   21,52
Dupont-Aignan   0,74
Le Pen   16,93
      

This week is really special, as we've lost 5 old polls (which were ponderated very low, but still) and the new LH2 poll from yesterday has hugely altered all the numbers.

So, Mélenchon's and Sarkozy's small rises are stopped.
Joly is a bit lower than Hulot.
Socialists are quite high and still on the rise, with Hollande above Aubry by almost 3 points now.
For the first time among the utterly irrelevant candidates, LO is above NPA. Hurray for real trotskyism !

Of course, the BIG, BIG news are Le Pen's "free fall" and Bayrou's sudden surge (threatening Borloo): 1.5 point in each case.
Maybe LH2 will be an outlier.
Maybe many French people are "lost".

Bear in mind that, in the previous LH2 poll, Bayrou was already "high" (in relative terms) and Le Pen already "low" ("only" 17-18, when she was at 20 or above everywhere else).

I really hope we'll have other polls before the summer recess, because, otherwise, LH2 will weigh more and more in this tracker until late August...

Overall, all these numbers are very good for the socialists:
- disappearing far left,
- no big Mélenchon's threat,
- Joly (obviously) disappointing,
- Bayrou and Borloo neutralizing each other,
- Sarkozy stalled,
- more little rightist or threatening-for-the-right candidates to come (Boutin, Nihous),
- and no direct effect of the release of "DSK 2: I may be back".

EDIT: with all these changes, why not updating your graph as soon as today, Antonio ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

All this for one poll which may be an outlier ?

Anyways, do you count Hulot's former numbers as Joly's or did you edit the data in your previous polls ?

[big bad fab]

All this for one poll which may be an outlier ?

Anyways, do you count Hulot's former numbers as Joly's or did you edit the data in your previous polls ?

French medias do not order enough polls... What can I do ?
If you prefer to wait for your graph to be updated, no problem, you're the one who "draws".

We just replace Hulot by Joly today, that's all.
Joly wasn't tested by every pollster, contrary to Hulot. So, if I edit only the numbers when Joly was tested, it'll make some weird changes.
And, well, Hulot was more or less the generic Green candidate, so it's pretty accurate to keep him for the past. After all, if Royal was nominated in October (), the best thing to do would be to compare her to the generic PS tracker... (yeah, I know, I must stop dreaming...)

[Math]

I really hope we'll have other polls before the summer recess, because, otherwise, LH2 will weigh more and more in this tracker until late August...

At last one poll will be released tomorrow or the day after, but it's from BVA, so I don't know if this is exactly a good news.

And there is this one from Ifop (due at 18:00 CEST so this time all is perfectly legal ) :

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 30 June-8 July 2011, sample 570 self-declared socialists among 1053 self-declared leftists (btw I don't know how it is possible to find 1053 leftists
among the 1970 people interviewed, but...).

among leftist / among socialists
Aubry 40 (+6) / 41 (+7)
Hollande 38 (+1) / 42 (-1)
Royal 11 (-2) / 9 (-2)
Valls 5 (=) / 4 (=)
Montebourg 4 (=) / 3 (=)
another one - (-1) / - (-1)
none of them 2 (-3) / 1 (-2)
don't know - (-1) / - (-1)

Second round

Hollande 50 (-3) / 53 (-5)
Aubry 50 (+3) / 47 (+5)

It seems all the undecided are trending to Aubry, so it will be a little harder for Hollande to come back. In the first wave (June 30-July 1st) Aubry is way ahead, and in the second (July 7-8) Hollande is back, and strongly back. I don't know if this is an effect of the catastrophic Aubry launching or statistical noise, but since the two samples are about 500 people each, I think this is worth to notice.