France 2012: the official thread
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #600 on: July 14, 2011, 08:43:08 AM »

My opinion is that he can win in the 1st. round, but he'll have to fight really hard to win in the 2nd round. Aubry may be a better candidate than Hollande. She seems to be more solid. I may be wrong, however. I'm the guy who likes Segolene Wink
But my favourite candidate is Valls (and yes, it's only because he was born in Spain)

You don't really know what Valls thinks, eh ? Wink
Too rightist for you... Grin

I was only joking. But I wouldn't mind having a Spanish president in France.
I've supported rightist people too (not in Spain), like Eduardo Frei, Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar or Aecio Neves.
Valls is not as conservative as those 4 are.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #601 on: July 15, 2011, 02:42:37 PM »

I've supported rightist people too (not in Spain), like Eduardo Frei, Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar or Aecio Neves.

This one isn't even funny. Even by European standards, Specter is not "rightist."
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hawkeye59
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« Reply #602 on: July 15, 2011, 04:14:14 PM »

I've supported rightist people too (not in Spain), like Eduardo Frei, Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar or Aecio Neves.

This one isn't even funny. Even by European standards, Specter is not "rightist."
By a European standard, Bernie Sanders or Russ Feingold would be center-left. Specter is more center-right by European standards.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #603 on: July 15, 2011, 09:13:08 PM »

I've supported rightist people too (not in Spain), like Eduardo Frei, Arlen Specter, Richard Lugar or Aecio Neves.

This one isn't even funny. Even by European standards, Specter is not "rightist."
By a European standard, Bernie Sanders or Russ Feingold would be center-left. Specter is more center-right by European standards.

Specter IS centre-right by European and American standards. No doubts. And Sanders is to the right of many "socialist" parties here in Europe.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #604 on: July 16, 2011, 01:38:42 AM »

OpinionWay poll for LCI and Le Figaro, 13-15 July 2011, sample 1113 self-declared leftist people, out of a whole sample of 2715

Among leftists / among socialists / among those sure to vote
Hollande  42 / 45 / 46
Aubry 34 / 35 / 30
Royal 13 / 14 / 14
Montebourg 7 / 3 / 7
Valls 3 / 3 / 2
Baylet 1 / 0 / 1
no answer 13 / 5 / 1

The structure is coherent with other polls (the order of the candidates, Hollande stronger among socialists, Aubry and Montebourg stronger outside the PS),
but the levels don't reveal a rise from Aubry, here.

And Hollande has 2 other assets:
being stronger among those sure to vote
and being strong in the 2nd round:

Hollande 56 / 57 / 62
Aubry 44 / 43 / 38
no answer 17 / 9 / 5

Remember, though, that the sample of those sure to vote is tiny: 211.

Among those who vote in the first round:
Royal "gives" 39% to Hollande and 38% to Aubry,
Montebourg gives 40% to Hollande and 38% to Aubry,
Valls gives 59% to Hollande and 13% to Aubry.

Seems quite logical.

So, either OpinionWay, as a rightist pollster, has rounded up numbers in a pro-Hollande way, or Aubry's little rise, seen in some other polls, has already faded away.

In any case, the race remains close, though with a small lead for Hollande.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #605 on: July 16, 2011, 02:48:28 AM »

I think the 60-40 probability you use in your tracker pretty much corresponds to the situation. Primary polls are rarely trustworthy, so even if Hollande is leading  by 10-15 points, basically everything can happen.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #606 on: July 19, 2011, 03:29:27 AM »

2012 Big Bad Tracker #11 - 18 July 2011               

For the moment, I keep all the reasonably possible candidates. Borloo is of course preferred to Morin. Chevènement is in, though not all pollsters are testing him. Boutin is in.
Poutou is now the NPA candidate and he keeps all the previous numbers for Besancenot, Martin and anonymous NPA candidate.
Joly is substituted to Hulot and keeps his previous numbers (though she was sometimes tested on her own, but that would alter the other candidates numbers, which would be unfair).
Pollsters haven't tested Nihous yet, which is a surprise as it'll be easier for him to gather the 500 signatures than for Dupont-Aignan, even Arthaud, Boutin or Chevènement.               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            

Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September (it'll probably change after that).               

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK (well, IPSOS and IFOP, especially, seem to be less good; LH2 and even CSA are a bit less bad; OpinionWay isn't so bad; Harris Interactive wasn't there in 2007; etc).      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... Wink      


      

18 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,21
Poutou   0,75
Mélenchon   5,71
Chevènement   0,23
Aubry   26,57
Joly   6,05
Bayrou   6,84
Borloo   8,10
Villepin   3,34
Boutin   0,46
Sarkozy   23,10
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   17,03
      


      

18 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,35
Poutou   0,58
Mélenchon   5,68
Chevènement   0,26
Hollande   28,64
Joly   6,13
Bayrou   6,59
Borloo   7,97
Villepin   2,96
Boutin   0,46
Sarkozy   22,63
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   16,14
      


      

18 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,30
Poutou   0,65
Mélenchon   5,69
Chevènement   0,25
PS   27,81
Joly   6,10
Bayrou   6,69
Borloo   8,02
Villepin   3,11
Boutin   0,46
Sarkozy   22,82
Dupont-Aignan   0,61
Le Pen   16,50
      

With more new polls this week, the tracker is "normalizing".
And it's still good for socialists.
The far-left is overall stable, though Arthaud is a bit on the rise, but Mélenchon is again down.
Joly is weak and Bayrou is down again.
Borloo is stalled but at a high level for Sarkozy's taste.

The only bad news for the PS is of course that Sarkozy has clearly surged a bit while Le Pen is now far behind him. All the other rightist candidates are too small to harm Sarkozy.

I hope there will be another poll before the "black hole" of August recess, but I'm not sure (math, any info about that Wink ?)

Otherwise, we'll have to wait for late August, with summer meetings of French parties, especially the socialist one at La Rochelle, where things can be more tense, and early September, when Hollande will be obliged to go to the police to answer some questions in the DSK-Banon affair, as it is now known.
Not that Hollande is at risk, but you know medias... if you play with your children with a plastic gun, you're probably a criminal, trafficking drugs... Roll Eyes
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #607 on: July 20, 2011, 04:04:23 AM »

Anyways, it's fun to see how the numbers keep moving. Let's see if there are other stunning polls this weak. Wink
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big bad fab
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« Reply #608 on: July 22, 2011, 08:53:23 AM »

IFOP poll for France Soir, 19-21 July 2011, 948 RVs out of a whole sample of 1002

Hollande is still strong, Aubry is weaker, Le Pen still high, Sarkozy not completely beaten, Joly marching towards the left, Nihous not even a statistical noise.

Hollande 28 / Aubry 25 / Royal 16
Sarkozy 23 / 23.5 / 25
Le Pen 20 / 20 / 20.5
Borloo 7.5 / 8 / 8.5
Bayrou 6.5 / 7.5 / 9
Joly 7 / 7 / 9.5
Mélenchon 4 / 4 / 6
Arthaud 0 / 0.5 / 0.5
Poutou 0 / 0.5 / 0.5
Chevènement 0.5 / 1 / 1
Villepin 2.5 / 2 / 3
Boutin 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.5
Nihous 0 / 0 / 0
Dupont-Aignan 0.5 / 0.5 / 0

Remember that Le Pen was always high in IFOP polls.

Astonishing tio see the far-left, including Mélenchon, very low, while Joly is back to Hulot's levels: probably an effect of her view on July 14th military parade.

Nihous is surprisingly low. But remember this is an Internet poll, so rural people are probably less numerous in the sample.

Borloo and Villepin are stable. Villepin is really down. Many people around him are leaving him, including Jacques Le Guen, deputy from Finistère (Hash knows him well).

Bayrou is a bit higher since a few weeks. Maybe some people who formerly supported Hulot.

What is better for Sarkozy and not so good for Aubry is the second round poll:

Hollande 57
Sarkozy 43

Aubry 53
Sarkozy 47

While Hollande was at 60 and Aubry at at least 58 since mid-May, this is a little bounce for Sarkozy, especially against Aubry.
57 is still a huge margin, but 53 begins to be dangerous.

Of course, that's only one poll.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #609 on: July 22, 2011, 10:01:21 AM »

OK, I know the end of the movie.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #610 on: July 22, 2011, 04:09:17 PM »


No, Sarko won't win this time. Aubry will.
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Hash
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« Reply #611 on: July 22, 2011, 04:22:45 PM »

If Sarko does win, it'd be the fightback of a century. I don't think any incumbent president in France has been down this much less than a year out and managed to win.
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #612 on: July 23, 2011, 04:29:20 PM »

If Sarko does win, it'd be the fightback of a century. I don't think any incumbent president in France has been down this much less than a year out and managed to win.

Yeah, indeed, that would be.

A recent IPSOS poll which I didn't publish by laziness (Wink) put people who don't want Sarkozy to be reelected at 60% (because, the left is almost unanimously against him and because there are too much defectors in the right: hence the fact that Aubry is a worse candidate, as she would re-mobilize rightist people around Sarkozy).

But, he is bouncing back a bit in "popularity" numbers (though I find this kind of polls completely useless to predict an election result; they are just a mood).

Don't worry so much, Antonio, he is really hated.
And well, leftist medias are very, very, very active. And leftist journalists inside "neutral" medias, too.

And there is one thing that can kill him forever before May 2012: Karachi bomb attack affair.
That would be a very BIG story.
And it could very well "explode" at the end of 2011 or in the beginning of 2012.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #613 on: July 23, 2011, 06:21:28 PM »

I hope I'll be proven wrong, but so far I see all the signs of another "comeback of the hated guy" which are so frequent in France (see Mitterrand '88, Chirac '95 and '02, the right generally in '07).
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« Reply #614 on: July 23, 2011, 07:05:55 PM »

Mitterrand was actually popular by 1988 (not in 1986, though) and Chirac had decent approvals in 2002. Neither of them had approvals in the low 30s.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #615 on: July 24, 2011, 03:35:50 PM »

I hope I'll be proven wrong, but so far I see all the signs of another "comeback of the hated guy" which are so frequent in France (see Mitterrand '88, Chirac '95 and '02, the right generally in '07).

Mitterrand 88 and Chirac 02 benefited from cohabitations.
Chirac 95 was almost in the opposition and Sarkozy 07 too ("la rupture").

Even in 1986, after a great comeback from the 1984 abyss, the left lost.
And 1995 didn't save the left after the 1993 abyss.

I remember the 1991-93 climate (Urba affair, Cresson's utter failure, Mitterrand's unfair sacking of Rocard, intricated affair of Carpentras cemetary, no intermediate elections in 1990-91 to let some pressure out, etc.): it was heavy against the left.

It's quite comparable in some respects against Sarkozy now, even though DSK has allowed the right to reduce a bit the threat, but only a bit.
Again, if "affairs" come back (Karachi is really dreadful for the right), Sarkozy is lost.
And without affairs, well, the path is really hard.
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Math
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« Reply #616 on: July 25, 2011, 07:22:58 AM »
« Edited: July 25, 2011, 09:33:40 AM by Math »

Mitterrand was actually popular by 1988 (not in 1986, though) and Chirac had decent approvals in 2002. Neither of them had approvals in the low 30s.

Well, according to this graph based on TNS Sofres data, Mitterrand and Chirac were respectively at 57% and 45% in the month of July before the election. Even VGE was above 50%. Sarkozy approval is at 25%.  As Raffarin would say : "La pente est forte".


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big bad fab
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« Reply #617 on: July 25, 2011, 10:01:53 AM »

Yeah.
And Sarkozy is even in worse situation when you look at other pollsters, as Chirac II is a bit less low than here.
And Chirac was very low in year+4 because we were in the middle of the CPE crisis... just some months after the rebellious suburbs exploded.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #618 on: July 25, 2011, 12:19:37 PM »

Ok, my bad. I'm still not reassured, though.
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Umengus
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« Reply #619 on: July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2011, 09:48:35 AM by Sibboleth »

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a .ng good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose.

===offensive content removed===
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MaxQue
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« Reply #620 on: July 25, 2011, 04:39:36 PM »

I'm surprised you aren't predicting than your beloved Marine will win.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #621 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 PM »

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a .ng good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose.

Idiot.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:58 PM »

Well, what to expect from a FN lover?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #623 on: July 25, 2011, 05:27:39 PM »

A French President with the last name Hollande. Would it get any worse for me?  Tongue

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big bad fab
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« Reply #624 on: July 26, 2011, 05:45:58 AM »

2012 Big Bad Tracker #12 - 25 July 2011               

My aggregated tracker with a generic socialist candidate is unchanged this week: 0.6 Hollande and 0.4 of Aubry, based on their current probability of being the PS candidate.
            
Each opinion poll is ponderated with its sample and loses a ponderation of 15% each week until September at least (it may change after the autumn).            

I haven't given a ponderation based on quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness... Wink      


      

25 July Aubry sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,11
Poutou   0,70
Mélenchon   5,25
Chevènement   0,39
Aubry   26,32
Joly   6,22
Bayrou   7,01
Borloo   8,13
Villepin   3,07
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,51
Sarkozy   23,29
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Le Pen   17,42
      


      

25 July Hollande sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,12
Poutou   0,47
Mélenchon   5,24
Chevènement   0,29
Hollande   28,55
Joly   6,29
Bayrou   6,62
Borloo   7,95
Villepin   2,88
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,50
Sarkozy   22,79
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Le Pen   16,73
      


      

25 July generic socialist sub-tracker:      

Arthaud   1,12
Poutou   0,56
Mélenchon   5,25
Chevènement   0,33
PS   27,65
Joly   6,26
Bayrou   6,77
Borloo   8,02
Villepin   2,96
Nihous   0,00
Boutin   0,50
Sarkozy   22,99
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Le Pen   17,00



This is the interest of a tracker: while we've got some quite different polls with various trends, the overall result is pretty stable.

So, no big news in the tracker, even with one new poll this week.

I'm afraid we now won't have any more poll before something like the 25th of August.
We'll see.      
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