France 2012: the official thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:30:16 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  France 2012: the official thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 34 35 36 37 38 [39] 40 41 42 43 44 ... 87
Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 358387 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #950 on: October 10, 2011, 12:09:09 PM »

Montebourg said he won't tell his voters to vote for anybody, but will just say who he will vote for ("à titre personnel" Wink).

Poll says Hollande is the most likely to beat Sarkozy, Aubry the most likely to make substantial changes if elected. Not surprising, and not that bad.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #951 on: October 10, 2011, 12:18:33 PM »

Map in a better version :

Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #952 on: October 10, 2011, 01:19:34 PM »

Montebourg didn't endorse anybody for now...
Logged
Nhoj
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,224
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.52, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #953 on: October 10, 2011, 01:28:13 PM »

We are gonna need candidate strength maps obviously. Tongue
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #954 on: October 10, 2011, 01:30:33 PM »

We are gonna need candidate strength maps obviously. Tongue

I'll give you that as soon as all the votes are counted (or at least more than 95%, probably tomorrow).
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #955 on: October 10, 2011, 01:58:02 PM »

Baylet endorsed Hollande, from what I saw on a computer screen in the living room.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #956 on: October 10, 2011, 02:33:11 PM »

Baylet endorsed Hollande, from what I saw on a computer screen in the living room.

http://www.leparisien.fr/flash-actualite-politique/primaire-ps-jean-michel-baylet-prg-appelle-a-soutenir-hollande-10-10-2011-1647697.php

Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,344
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #957 on: October 10, 2011, 03:17:32 PM »
« Edited: October 10, 2011, 03:49:29 PM by big bad fab »

Montebourg didn't endorse anybody for now...

I think he won't.
And I hope too Wink.

8982 out of 9502, nearing the end.
2 549 894 (weird: there are only about 10k blank votes while there were 20k this morning.... Huh)

FH 39.07
MA 30.52
AM 17.28
SR 6.84
MV 5.65
JMB 0.64
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,401
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #958 on: October 10, 2011, 04:16:35 PM »

National results map is boring as hell, but apparently it's much more interesting when you look at the urban details:

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2011/10/10/carte-a-paris-martine-aubry-devance-francois-hollande_1585200_823448.html#ens_id=1402952

Hollande+Valls poll best in the right-wing affluent west-side, Aubry+Montebourg polls best in the left-wing poorer/bobo east-side and downtown. 18% for Manuel Valls in the 16th... and this is a left-wing primary!

Would be interesting to see if a similar pattern is repeated in Lyon or Marseille.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #959 on: October 11, 2011, 01:34:03 AM »
« Edited: October 11, 2011, 02:53:35 AM by Allez Martine ! »

Hollande won Sciences Po's arrondissement (the 7th) too. Sad
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #960 on: October 11, 2011, 01:35:31 AM »

Still more than 5% of polls not counted. This is getting pathetic.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #961 on: October 11, 2011, 02:53:00 AM »

Aubry now barely over 30.5 ! Sad Not that medias would care, but it'd still be a shame...
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #962 on: October 11, 2011, 03:13:28 AM »
« Edited: October 11, 2011, 03:16:09 AM by Allez Martine ! »

Sciences Po's precinct :

Hollande : 334 (38.7%)
Aubry : 237 (27.5%)
Valls : 152 (17.6%)
Montebourg : 88 (10.2%)
Royal : 45 (5.2%)
Baylet : 7 (0.8%)


My Vélizy precinct :

Hollande : 175 (41.2%)
Aubry : 116 (27.3%)
Montebourg : 65 (15.3%)
Valls : 38 (8.9%)
Royal : 26 (6.1%)
Baylet : 5 (1.2%)


Brison-Saint-Innocent (73) precinct :

Hollande : 146 (38.2%)
Aubry : 100 (26.2%)
Montebourg : 81 (21.2%)
Valls : 29 (7.6%)
Royal : 25 (6.5%)
Baylet : 1 (0.3%)


All carried by Hollande with a higher margin that nationwide... Sad But at least he's lower than nationally in 2 out of 3 ! And high Monteboug in Savoie means Aubry has a chance there for the runoff. Wink
Logged
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,816
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #963 on: October 11, 2011, 03:43:01 AM »

I was really hoping Montebourg would have made it to the runoff. Sad
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #964 on: October 11, 2011, 03:48:39 AM »

I was really hoping Montebourg would have made it to the runoff. Sad

Wut ? Huh
Logged
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,816
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #965 on: October 11, 2011, 03:52:09 AM »


I liked him. He spoke out against globalization and is a protectionist.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #966 on: October 11, 2011, 04:16:01 AM »


I liked him. He spoke out against globalization and is a protectionist.

Yeah, there actually are some talks in France about far-right voters turning out to vote for him, because "de-globalization" stuff is quite popular among these guys. That said, Montebourg is above all a huge fan of government regulation, high taxes, strong welfare State, and everything an American conservative loathes with a passion. Tongue
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,344
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #967 on: October 11, 2011, 04:20:38 AM »

The closer you are to a city and to the centre of a city, the likelier you are to have voted Aubry.
It's quickly said but roughly right.

I really hope we'll really have the REALLY complete results, because I want to make accurate maps. Margins are so tiny... Tongue

BTW, I'll update my tracker here tonight
(it's already on my blog, which has a priority, sort of Tongue)
(I've also tried to estimate how votes are transferring from 1st to 2nd round... I like to take risks Grin)
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #968 on: October 11, 2011, 04:25:35 AM »

I really hope we'll really have the REALLY complete results, because I want to make accurate maps. Margins are so tiny... Tongue

I will do them. Don't you even try to beat me on that !
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,344
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #969 on: October 11, 2011, 04:45:28 AM »

I really hope we'll really have the REALLY complete results, because I want to make accurate maps. Margins are so tiny... Tongue

I will do them. Don't you even try to beat me on that !

Don't worry, I'm busy and lazy Grin
But I'll do some, probably next week, with my own categories: don't worry Wink
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,344
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #970 on: October 11, 2011, 09:30:21 AM »

National results map is boring as hell, but apparently it's much more interesting when you look at the urban details:

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2011/10/10/carte-a-paris-martine-aubry-devance-francois-hollande_1585200_823448.html#ens_id=1402952

Hollande+Valls poll best in the right-wing affluent west-side, Aubry+Montebourg polls best in the left-wing poorer/bobo east-side and downtown. 18% for Manuel Valls in the 16th... and this is a left-wing primary!

Would be interesting to see if a similar pattern is repeated in Lyon or Marseille.

In Rennes, Aubry is high in the old centre and in residential areas: "bobos" and young students. Hollande is high in popular areas.

Valls has good results in bourgeois or mid-bourgeois towns around Rennes: Saint-Grégoire, Cesson-Sévigné, Chantepie, Betton (but not Pacé).

Hollande is high in the same towns and also far away from Rennes in mid-size cities, for some more rightists: Saint-Malo, Dinard, Vitré but also Fougères.
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,344
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #971 on: October 11, 2011, 09:43:43 AM »

BREAKING !!!

Unfortunately, it's the worst pollster from first round which gives us the first poll for this week.
Let's hope Harris (yes, Harris...) will poll too. I don't even expect IFOP.

OpinionWay-Fiducial for Le Figaro, 10-11 October 2011, 2196 leftist RVs out of a whole sample of 5502

Among the 2196 sub-sample, you've got 1372 socialists and 638 "certain" to vote in the 2nd round.

Potential turnout is rising among socialists (36%, +8, good news for Hollande) and among far-leftists (30%, +7, good news for Aubry), but not among Greens (7%, -1, good news for Hollande).

Among leftists / among socialists / among leftists certain to vote (difference with a poll made on 5th and 6th of October, before the first round)
Hollande 54 (-4) / 58 (-1) / 52 (-8)
Aubry 46 (+4) / 42 (+1) / 48 (+8)

OpinionWay overvalued greatly Hollande before the first round.
Are they right now ? Or are they still overvaluing him ?
In any case, this result is of course very bad news for Hollande, even if he may be still ahead.

Valls voters: 65% to Hollande, 23% to Aubry, 12% undecided (normal)
Royal voters: 23% to Hollande, 64% to Aubry, 13% undecided (good news for Aubry)
Montebourg voters: 45% to Hollande, 48% to Aubry, 7% undecided (good news for Hollande)
new voters (didn't vote last Sunday): 39% to Hollande, 44% to Aubry, 17% undecided (good news for Aubry)

I'm surprised that it's so high for Aubry among Royal's voters (see my blog).
And Hollande is still high among Montebourg's voters.
Mmm.... let's be very careful.

Please, Mr. IFOP, please, Mrs. Harris, help us see more clearly Tongue !
Logged
Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,326
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #972 on: October 11, 2011, 10:39:33 AM »

Only a 3 point advantage for Aubry with Montebourg voters? Seems unlikely.

Though perhaps those numbers may shift a lot when Montebourg announces his endorsement, uh, who he will vote for.
Logged
big bad fab
filliatre
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,344
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #973 on: October 11, 2011, 10:58:51 AM »

Only a 3 point advantage for Aubry with Montebourg voters? Seems unlikely.

Though perhaps those numbers may shift a lot when Montebourg announces his endorsement, uh, who he will vote for.

He is weakening himself, by making too much noise: he's wasting his new strength very quickly...

Aubry and Hollande have just agreed on something: they don't want to abide by Montebourg's will...

Maybe his endorsement (if it comes, which I really doubt) will be only a "personal choice": like Chirac in 1981 "in favour" of Giscard. You know the end of this story Wink.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,401
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #974 on: October 11, 2011, 12:54:48 PM »

I don't know why, but my gut tells me that Aubry will narrowly win this thing.

Which means that I'll vote Sarkozy on May 5.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 34 35 36 37 38 [39] 40 41 42 43 44 ... 87  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.071 seconds with 13 queries.