France 2012: the official thread

[You kip if you want to...]

A win's a win even if it's by 1 vote. Sarko only wins if Hollande doesn't finish in the top 2. No French president's ever been elected by an astonishing margin, all that.

How's Sarko's response to the conference the other week and David Cameron's 'flounce bounce' (the veto) been received over there?

[Beet]

Because the left wing parties are too hollowed out spiritually to oppose neo-liberalism, you get situations like this.

blue collar

1-Le Pen 37%
2-Hollande 17%
3-Sarkozy 17%
4-Mélanchon 12%

[Antonio the Sixth]

A win's a win even if it's by 1 vote. Sarko only wins if Hollande doesn't finish in the top 2. No French president's ever been elected by an astonishing margin, all that.

How's Sarko's response to the conference the other week and David Cameron's 'flounce bounce' (the veto) been received over there?

This hasn't been much commented actually. The big news today are the strike of airport security agents (and the government's inane decision to mobilise cops to replace them) and a bill banning the negation of Armenian genocide which has just passed.

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #34 - 26 December 2011      
            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses a ponderation of 20% each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            

I haven't given a ponderation based on the quality of pollsters, as big changes have occurred in their teams, without any certainty that the 2007 rating is still OK.      
And this tracker is built more out of fun than out of scientific seriousness...       

      

Hollande   29,60
Sarkozy   25,13
Le Pen   17,22
Bayrou   10,87
Mélenchon   6,69
Joly   4,08
Villepin   2,20
Morin   0,65
Lepage   0,53
Dupont-Aignan   0,88
Boutin   0,62
Nihous   0,00
Arthaud   0,48
Poutou   0,38
Chevènement   0,67
   
Hollande   57,36
Sarkozy   42,64

Hollande is back to pre-primary levels.
Bayrou is really surging, now above 10%.
It's not very bright for Sarkozy but he is more or less steady.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fab, I strongly encourage you to adopte a more moderate position regarding ponderation. I've had a look at the program you present on your blog, and I'm a bit worried you're getting too fast in the way you want to calculate the tracker after January. Personally, I'd wait for mid-February to switch to 25%, for April to switch to, say 33% and wouldn't go as far as you go by counting only the week's polls in the very end. I know things can move faster in the very last week, but overestimating the predictive power of final polls might be a mistake. Don't get me wrong, all your ideas are really great and I perfectly understand your reasoning. I hope you'll just take my objections into account.

Also, I've counted and this tracker is actually the 34th.

[Colbert]

IMOO a good rating would be :


12 months ago : 5%
11 months ago : 10%
10 months ago : 15%
9 months ago : 20%
8 months ago : 25%
7 months ago : 30%
6 months ago : 40%
5 months ago : 50%
4 months ago : 60%
3 months ago : 70%
2 months ago : 80%
1 months ago : 90%
current month : 100%

[Хahar 🤔]

Ponderation isn't an English word.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ponderation isn't an English word.

Yeah, weighting. Sorry.

[big bad fab]

Fab, I strongly encourage you to adopte a more moderate position regarding ponderation. I've had a look at the program you present on your blog, and I'm a bit worried you're getting too fast in the way you want to calculate the tracker after January. Personally, I'd wait for mid-February to switch to 25%, for April to switch to, say 33% and wouldn't go as far as you go by counting only the week's polls in the very end. I know things can move faster in the very last week, but overestimating the predictive power of final polls might be a mistake. Don't get me wrong, all your ideas are really great and I perfectly understand your reasoning. I hope you'll just take my objections into account.

Also, I've counted and this tracker is actually the 34th.

I don't know where I've made a mistake in the number of trackers
Will try not to forget to change it on Monday.

As for weighing the polls, I'm happy to have some feedback from you.
Well, that's only my current plan. I'll see how many polls we have each week from January. Maybe I'll make this a bit slower.
In fact, I've set this based on the 2007 campaign, which is very fresh in my memory.
This time, Sarkozy will try to have a slower flow... err... wait, are we sure ?
And Hollande, theoretically far better organized than Royal, will have his own agenda.
And Marine is far more professionnal than Big Daddy.
And Bayrou will be more active because he really believes in himself this time (and it's the last occasion for him...).
So, I think the pace will be quicker than we expect for the moment.
Hence my scheme. But I'll change it if necessary.

Just remember that you repeated me that I should change the pace during the last summer and through the autumn... I was rather right not to change too fast then. Now, it's the contrary: maybe you'll be right.

Anyway, this campaign may well be more suspenseful than anticipated, after all

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fab, I strongly encourage you to adopte a more moderate position regarding ponderation. I've had a look at the program you present on your blog, and I'm a bit worried you're getting too fast in the way you want to calculate the tracker after January. Personally, I'd wait for mid-February to switch to 25%, for April to switch to, say 33% and wouldn't go as far as you go by counting only the week's polls in the very end. I know things can move faster in the very last week, but overestimating the predictive power of final polls might be a mistake. Don't get me wrong, all your ideas are really great and I perfectly understand your reasoning. I hope you'll just take my objections into account.

Also, I've counted and this tracker is actually the 34th.

I don't know where I've made a mistake in the number of trackers
Will try not to forget to change it on Monday.

As for weighing the polls, I'm happy to have some feedback from you.
Well, that's only my current plan. I'll see how many polls we have each week from January. Maybe I'll make this a bit slower.
In fact, I've set this based on the 2007 campaign, which is very fresh in my memory.
This time, Sarkozy will try to have a slower flow... err... wait, are we sure ?
And Hollande, theoretically far better organized than Royal, will have his own agenda.
And Marine is far more professionnal than Big Daddy.
And Bayrou will be more active because he really believes in himself this time (and it's the last occasion for him...).
So, I think the pace will be quicker than we expect for the moment.
Hence my scheme. But I'll change it if necessary.

Just remember that you repeated me that I should change the pace during the last summer and through the autumn... I was rather right not to change too fast then. Now, it's the contrary: maybe you'll be right.

Anyway, this campaign may well be more suspenseful than anticipated, after all

You were right back in October, yes. The current  weighting system is also correct IMO. Now, I know a lot more polls will come after January, but I still think some caution would be useful. So, let's wait and see how many polls we have at that time.

As for the campaign, I always knew it would be closer than anticipated. There were a few weeks, right after the primary, when I came to think that the race was over, but Hollande, Mélenchon and Joly proved once again that the left won't stop shooting itself in the foot. This likely won't be enough for Sarko to win, but enought to worry left-wingers like me...

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #35 - 2 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            


      

Hollande   29,31
Sarkozy   24,95
Le Pen   17,21
Bayrou   11,36
Mélenchon   6,59
Joly   3,98
Villepin   2,35
Morin   0,65
Lepage   0,54
Dupont-Aignan   0,89
Boutin   0,64
Nihous   0,00
Arthaud   0,47
Poutou   0,39
Chevènement   0,67
   
Hollande   57,17
Sarkozy   42,83

No new poll during this holiday week. So Bayrou is the only winner.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here come the graphs.






It's rather unfortunate that the polls stopped right after you decided to switch your weighting system... But still, the lines remain smooth enough, for now.

[big bad fab]

We are Friday and still no new poll
I was convinced they'd go back to "work" as soon as the 2nd of January...
They seemed hungry enough to be interested in this "good school-boy" start from Hollande (he is really lucky to have Sarkozy against him...); so, why can't they "create" the event by polling NOW ?

French medias are really big, big sh***

[Math]

We are Friday and still no new poll
I was convinced they'd go back to "work" as soon as the 2nd of January...
They seemed hungry enough to be interested in this "good school-boy" start from Hollande (he is really lucky to have Sarkozy against him...); so, why can't they "create" the event by polling NOW ?

French medias are really big, big sh***

Don't worry Fab, you will have a bunch of new polls next week, at least IFOP, BVA, CSA, OpinionWay, and maybe one of the two best IMO, IPSOS and TNS Sofres.

[big bad fab]

Thanks for the info.

But this is what I've said: they all poll at the same time and then they are all unemployed at the same time...
My next Monday tracker will again take into account absolutely no new poll

Sure, it's the las time it occurs, I think. But still...
Hope YouGov will land in France soon

[Sam Spade]

New IFOP poll out - Full numbers for every candidate in 1st round are not given in the article.

At any rate: 1st round - Hollande 28, Sarkozy 26
2nd round - Hollande 54, Sarkozy 46

http://www.ntn24.com/news/news/sarkozy-gains-ground-socialist-9250

[minionofmidas]

God, this is disgusting.

[Colbert]

New IFOP poll out - Full numbers for every candidate in 1st round are not given in the article.

At any rate: 1st round - Hollande 28, Sarkozy 26
2nd round - Hollande 54, Sarkozy 46

http://www.ntn24.com/news/news/sarkozy-gains-ground-socialist-9250

1-HOLLANDE 28% (+0.5)
2-SARKOZY 26% (+2)
3-LE PEN 19% (-1)
4-BAYROU 12% (+1)
5-MELENCHON 6% (-0.5)
6-JOLY 3% (-2)
7-"sonstige" 5.5%

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #36 - 9 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            


      

Hollande   28,49
Sarkozy   25,23
Le Pen   17,8
Bayrou   11,94
Mélenchon   6,33
Joly   3,59
Villepin   2,51
Morin   0,78
Lepage   0,53
Dupont-Aignan   0,78
Boutin   0,61
Nihous   0,00
Arthaud   0,50
Poutou   0,49
Chevènement   0,44
   
Hollande   55,96
Sarkozy   44,04

The new IFOP poll is included (all the numbers on my blog).

[Phony Moderate]

Errrr....best of luck to him.

[You kip if you want to...]

Errrr....best of luck to him.

The Mirror gives Le President de la Republique a sex change.

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[redcommander]

If the PS manages to lose yet again, I think it's time for them to disband and let another party take up the left-wing mantle. This is ridiculous.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is pretty pathetic, yeah.

[Franzl]

As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious

[Antonio the Sixth]

As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious

I think at this point I would just give up on partisan politics forever and focus only on data and analysis.