France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

BBF I really like much your blog, but everytime, it"s irritate me about your heavy remanence of MARION "Marine" Le pen.


As I know, if you come this way, you have no reason to call Martine Aubry "Aubry" or Ségolène Royal "Ségolène".

There is one BIG difference between Panzergirl and the others: her motto includes "marine", which is a fake first name. She has never had Marine in her official identity. Never. This is not even her fifth first name or something. She is just "Marion Anne Perrine Le Pen".
Of course, "la vague Perrine" or "la vague Marion", it's less cool
Sarkozy, Royal, Aubry et alii have not created anything.

But if other readers are irritated, I may take it into account

[Antonio the Sixth]

BBF I really like much your blog, but everytime, it"s irritate me about your heavy remanence of MARION "Marine" Le pen.


As I know, if you come this way, you have no reason to call Martine Aubry "Aubry" or Ségolène Royal "Ségolène".

There is one BIG difference between Panzergirl and the others: her motto includes "marine", which is a fake first name. She has never had Marine in her official identity. Never. This is not even her fifth first name or something. She is just "Marion Anne Perrine Le Pen".
Of course, "la vague Perrine" or "la vague Marion", it's less cool
Sarkozy, Royal, Aubry et alii have not created anything.

But if other readers are irritated, I may take it into account

Nah, it's quite fun.

But just imagine what it would look like if the same standard was applied to US politicians !

[Hash]

Oh, damn, I actually never knew that Le Penis' first name was actually 'Marion' and not 'Marine'.

[minionofmidas]

Throwing out old maps at my mom's (she's moving. Within the neighborhood, as it happens) I came across an old touristy map of the Marais Poitevin from the early nineties... with a short preface/dedication/whatevsky by Segolène Royal. Heh. Got thrown in the trash, mind.

[Leftbehind]

Oh, damn, I actually never knew that Le Penis' first name was actually 'Marion' and not 'Marine'.

News to me 'n all.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7ER_g3VYBI

[Colbert]

last ifop

hollande 27
sarko 23
MARINE (^^) 21
bayrou 12

[Colbert]

more than the presidential, the legislative elections will be f... interesting. Vivement June 2012 !

[Hash]

more than the presidential, the legislative elections will be f... interesting. Vivement June 2012 !

My constituency is pretty interesting:

Fredo vs. Balkany's brother or something vs. common PS-Green candidate

[Joe Republic]

So it's starting to look highly possible that Sarkozy could be knocked out in the first round?  (When is that, by the way?)

[Hash]

So it's starting to look highly possible that Sarkozy could be knocked out in the first round?  (When is that, by the way?)

April 22.

It was actually way more likely around the time of the DSKgate, where Marion was polling up to 24% and he was polling as low as Chirac-2002 levels. His support seems to have stabilized at a pretty low 23-25% but still pretty much above Marion's highs. That being said, nothing can be excluded, though I doubt Sarkozy will be knocked out. He's a formidable campaigner and once he starts campaigning seriously, my opinion is that he'll go back up.

[Colbert]

more than the presidential, the legislative elections will be f... interesting. Vivement June 2012 !

My constituency is pretty interesting:

Fredo vs. Balkany's brother or something vs. common PS-Green candidate

mine was not : XXe arrondissement is a strong place of parisian left.


In my opinions, if surprise there will have, it will be on west side of France. The last cantonal elections had reveled failures in the strong wall of anti-FNism on the line Brest-Limoges. (heart of chirac's vote and moderate votes)

[Colbert]

So it's starting to look highly possible that Sarkozy could be knocked out in the first round?  (When is that, by the way?)

April 22.

It was actually way more likely around the time of the DSKgate, where Marion was polling up to 24% and he was polling as low as Chirac-2002 levels. His support seems to have stabilized at a pretty low 23-25% but still pretty much above Marion's highs. That being said, nothing can be excluded, though I doubt Sarkozy will be knocked out. He's a formidable campaigner and once he starts campaigning seriously, my opinion is that he'll go back up.

frankly, I can't myself make bet on the finalists. Sarko is a very good candidate, but with few reserves.
Hollande is a weak candidate, but the other leftists candidates can't compete against him. If, as I think, left make 40 % of vote, Hollande will be finalist. (and, of course, if left is stronger than 40 %, finalist too)
Marine seems to be at her top. It would be difficult for her to pass from 20 to 25 %.
Bayrou is rising, but he start from very far.

[Beet]

What do (inaccurate as it happens, but that's not the issue) bourgeois assumptions about the solidity of working class support for the SPD a century ago have to do with the sociology of the PS vote of today? Support for the PS is not as closely linked to class (or to other socioeconomic factors) as most other (Western/Northern) European social democratic parties for historical reasons - not only do you have the old Catholic/Anti-Clerical divide (which worked against the formation of 'normal' class politics), but the socialist party that was embedded in working class communities was the Commies and not SFIO - and that has certainly been electorally unhelpful at times, sure. But that's not news and has nothing to do with the current crisis.

Perhaps the reason why people don't make a fuss out of it is that the FN has been the largest party with ouvriers in all presidential elections since 1995. Even 2007. So some historical perspective would help, fo 'sho.

Fascinating, gentlemen. I only mentioned the SPD a century ago because that was a time when, according to various sources I have read, the socialist parties were on the ascendancy everywhere in Europe, whereas today, it is the reverse with one or two exceptions, and so I detect some continental-wide trends in both instances. Are there any good books or online sources to recommend to learn more about the historical patterns by class and demographic among previous French Presidential elections?

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #38 - 23 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            


      

Hollande   28,33
Sarkozy   24,07
Le Pen   18,80
Bayrou   13,11
Mélenchon   7,19
Joly   3,22
Villepin   2,41
Morin   0,56
Lepage   0,33
Dupont-Aignan   0,54
Boutin   0,32
Nihous   0,00
Arthaud   0,50
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,34
   
Hollande   56,72
Sarkozy   43,28

These numbers are boring.... Can't Bayrou really surge ? Can't Sarkozy fight back ? Can't even Mélenchon climb above 10% ?
Bah....

[You kip if you want to...]

LOL, Ségo. Although, no need for her to be shafted.

http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2012/01/23/bourget-segolene-royal_n_1222803.html?ref=france

[Hash]

It seems her only remaining political goal is to become the French equivalent of Sarah Palin/Michele Bachmann.

It will be interesting to see how her race shapes up in La Rochelle and what kind of position she will demand, with her rumoured favourite being President of the NatAss

[Antonio the Sixth]

Graphs !





Things are on the right track again.


BTW Fabien, don't hesitate if you want to use my graphs for your blog's purpose. Just tell me and I'll post them every week.

(I said it because, to be honest, your 2nd round graph is just ugly )

[big bad fab]

You're right, I'll change it for next week (have not done so before by being purely lazy )

[big bad fab]

Tonight on TV, Hollande wasn't too bad. Juppé looked old.
Only some weaknesses on his personality, but other wise good on his program...
He will be very difficult to beat, even by Bayrou.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tonight on TV, Hollande wasn't too bad. Juppé looked old.
Only some weaknesses on his personality, but other wise good on his program...
He will be very difficult to beat, even by Bayrou.

Hey, so we actually agree sometimes !

Hollande was great. It's the first time I see him fully convincing on issues.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just reading that the Sarko camp called Hollande's rally "arrogant" and "self important".

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #39 - 30 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            


      

Hollande   28,45
Sarkozy   24,04
Le Pen   18,52
Bayrou   13,26
Mélenchon   7,54
Joly   3,24
Villepin   2,00
Morin   0,49
Lepage   0,37
Dupont-Aignan   0,59
Boutin   0,36
Nihous   0,09
Arthaud   0,46
Poutou   0,24
Chevènement   0,37
   
Hollande   57,05
Sarkozy   42,95

Mélenchon is up but it doesn't hurt Hollande, who is even stronger.
Bayrou is more or less stalled.

[Insula Dei]

Any indicators on how last night's TV-appearance for Sarkozy went down?

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #39 - 30 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            


      

Hollande   28,42
Sarkozy   23,91
Le Pen   18,65
Bayrou   13,27
Mélenchon   7,57
Joly   3,22
Villepin   1,97
Morin   0,52
Lepage   0,37
Dupont-Aignan   0,58
Boutin   0,33
Nihous   0,09
Arthaud   0,46
Poutou   0,25
Chevènement   0,38
   
Hollande   57,04
Sarkozy   42,96

Mélenchon is up but it doesn't hurt Hollande, who is even stronger.
Bayrou is more or less stalled.

UPDATED: sorry, I've forgotten to add the last daily IFOP...

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #39 - 30 January 2012   

            
Each opinion poll is weighted with its sample and loses 20% of its weight each week: it will be the case until mid-January.            


      

Hollande   28,38
Sarkozy   23,92
Le Pen   18,78
Bayrou   13,20
Mélenchon   7,56
Joly   3,20
Villepin   1,97
Morin   0,52
Lepage   0,34
Dupont-Aignan   0,62
Boutin   0,30
Nihous   0,08
Arthaud   0,46
Poutou   0,28
Chevènement   0,39
   
Hollande   57,04
Sarkozy   42,96

Mélenchon is up but it doesn't hurt Hollande, who is even stronger.
Bayrou is more or less stalled.

UPDATED: sorry, I've forgotten to add the last daily IFOP...

UPDATED AGAIN ! You won't believe it, but this sh*** pollster, IFOP (yes I'm angry !), has in fact released other polls which are different from their daily ones...
So, another big one is in, but, fortunately, with no great effect.
It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...