France 2012: the official thread
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 358385 times)
LastVoter
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« Reply #2075 on: May 03, 2012, 02:55:56 PM »

I think Sarkozy is done now that Bayrou endorsed Hollande.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2076 on: May 03, 2012, 02:56:55 PM »

Even if this is a mini-bump (which I won't believe until another poll backs it up) there isn't enough time when voting starts in under 3 days. Has France ever had a Dewey Defeats Truman moment? I'd be thrilled if Sarko pulls it out but will only believe it when I see it.
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Meeker
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« Reply #2077 on: May 03, 2012, 03:23:05 PM »

Wake me up when Sarkozy actually ties or leads a poll.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #2078 on: May 03, 2012, 03:26:13 PM »


OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2079 on: May 03, 2012, 03:35:35 PM »


OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #2080 on: May 03, 2012, 03:51:24 PM »

Don't feed the troll, kids
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2081 on: May 03, 2012, 04:16:46 PM »


"Explain."
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DL
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« Reply #2082 on: May 03, 2012, 04:20:53 PM »


OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...

BTW: Have you figured out how to get santorum stains out of your bed sheets? What's the best detergent?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2083 on: May 03, 2012, 04:23:17 PM »


OK, you posted it for like 4th time now.

Is there any reason you keep posting this one-liner outside of trolling?

Oh, yeah, there is a reason: because I think he's going to win. Next stupid question, please...

BTW: Have you figured out how to get santorum stains out of your bed sheets? What's the best detergent?

My detractors have achieved the moral high ground here!
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Sbane
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« Reply #2084 on: May 03, 2012, 04:26:34 PM »

Phil, are you just going by your gut with these predictions. I guess you mentioned the "shy Sarkozy effect", but is there any proof of that? Others seem to have debunked that.....Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2085 on: May 03, 2012, 04:31:18 PM »

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.
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Sbane
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« Reply #2086 on: May 03, 2012, 04:40:42 PM »

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2087 on: May 03, 2012, 05:15:02 PM »

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....

"Thoughtful prediction": "OBVIOUSLY HOLLANDE BY SIX TO EIGHT POINTS. SARKOZY IS DONE! ALLEZ FRANCOIS!"

Please don't seriously try to tell me that anything other than that would be deemed "thoughtful" by the denizens of this board. The predictions, signatures, commentary, etc. have been anything but thoughtful.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #2088 on: May 03, 2012, 05:37:42 PM »

If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

OK, I read the sentence too fast. But now I understand what you wanna say.

Why is Sarkozy closing the gap ?

Sarkozy collecting most of the right- and center-voters of which there are a lot according to the first round.

Even if 15% of Melenchon's voters vote for Sarkozy, Hollande could be in trouble if many LePen voters also hold their noses and vote for Sarkozy.

But, the good thing is that Bayrou's decision today might have saved Hollande from a really close race.

Bayrou's endorsement won't have any effect: it just pollutes the last days of campaign for Sarkozy.
We are on something like 53-47 currently (my last tracker tomorrow Wink).

Have just published the latest polls on my blog. CSA 53-47, LH2 53-47, OpinionWay 52.5-47.5, IFOP 53-47, Harris 53-47.
Last BVA was 53.5-46.5 and last IPSOS 53-47.
Let's wait for IFOP tomorrow and maybe IPSOS and TNS-Sofres.

(Math would ba ble to tell us which polls are planned, but he doesn't post any longer since I've noticed he stole one article from my blog Tongue Too bad !)
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Hash
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« Reply #2089 on: May 03, 2012, 05:52:49 PM »

Locking this thread pre-emptively seems like a nice idea.
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Meeker
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« Reply #2090 on: May 03, 2012, 06:22:15 PM »

Locking this thread pre-emptively seems like a nice idea.

Yeah, I think any insightful discussion has probably come to a close.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #2091 on: May 03, 2012, 06:50:33 PM »

Why can't the troll go to the prediction thread I've opened ?
It's not aimed to remain a very serious and useful thread, so... go there, please Tongue
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2092 on: May 03, 2012, 07:28:12 PM »

Why can't the troll go to the prediction thread I've opened ?

Wow. Ok, dude.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #2093 on: May 03, 2012, 08:50:46 PM »


Wow, a bit interesting. Comparing OpinionWay's poll from last week to today, it looks like most of the 1.5 point swing is due to a few very specific shifts.

There's a huge change for younger voters; 18-24 year olds go from 61% Hollande to 54% Hollande. I don't know if that's just due to a small sub-sample size or what.

There's a significant shift in Le Pen's supporters; Hollande loses eight points with most of the change due to an increase number of PanzerGirl voters saying they'll abstain. That makes sense.

However, Melenchon's supporters went from 91% Hollande, 2% Sarko, 7% not voting, to 77% Hollande, 9% Sarkozy, 14% not voting. This seems a bit off. I can understand more leftists deciding to stay home, but what sort of Melenchon voter would actually be voting for Sarko over Hollande?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #2094 on: May 04, 2012, 04:50:46 AM »

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....

"Thoughtful prediction": "OBVIOUSLY HOLLANDE BY SIX TO EIGHT POINTS. SARKOZY IS DONE! ALLEZ FRANCOIS!"

The thing is, content-wise, that actually is thoughtful in that it's based on evidence and facts, although four to six is looking more likely now.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2095 on: May 04, 2012, 05:08:26 AM »

There are 4 surveys out now (all conducted yesterday) and Sarkozy has an average of 47.1%

I would probably start to worry a bit if he breaks 48%, but I think Hollande has this now.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2096 on: May 04, 2012, 08:18:56 AM »

Germans strongly favor Sarkozy over Hollande (quite surprising):

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2097 on: May 04, 2012, 09:05:53 AM »

BTW, some TV journalists have been assaulted by UMP militants during a Sarkozy meeting yesterday. It apparently hasn't had been much reported in the news, but I still find it quite telling about the feelings among Sarko's campaign.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #2098 on: May 04, 2012, 09:22:20 AM »

Sky just pronounced Bayrou as Bi-roo. Christ.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #2099 on: May 04, 2012, 09:37:10 AM »


You mean like Bee-roo ?

The correct pronounciation is obviously By-roo, though some in France still call him Beh-roo.
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