France 2012: the official thread

[Sam Spade]

Folks, 10 will get you 20 that the maid couldn't respond to DSK in any verbal manner even if she wanted to, unless she was Haitian, or something.  Maybe.

Second, when you start doing things that only George Constanza would do, it is painfully clear that you're not qualified to do much of anything.

Third, the idea that this news story is only deserving of being reported within the elections thread of a separate board is a determination only worthy of fascists, sexual deviants and perverts, much like DSK.

[Sam Spade]

Third, the idea that this news story is only deserving of being reported within the elections thread of a separate board is a determination only worthy of fascists, sexual deviants and perverts, much like DSK.

I'd rather not have the more lurid details cluttering up this board too much, so... you know...

Which is why we should have a thread in the International General Discussion Board.

There was, but if someone locks one thread, what will happen to the other?

[Sam Spade]

Update:  No bail - DSK remanded to custody.  Prosecutors said he was flight risk, and they won.  Goes before grand jury on May 20.
As to the actual charges - believe what you want folks, but the cops have a lot of physical evidence.  That seems apparent.

Al is right on the fact that this type of incident rarely occurs with a powerful man.

Also, my friends in the DA's department have long told me that those who are guilty try to act normally after committing the crime - so I would not necessarily read the "call on the plane" or "lunch with the daughter" positively.

That being said - innocent until proven guilty.

[Sam Spade]

If I came up with half the cockamamie theories about American politicians who commit crimes that are being made by the French and certain posters on this forum to explain how he's not guilty, I'd be laughed off the forum immediately.

Besides, why do certain leftist posters want to defend some rich banker who heads an organization that regularly screws poor countries and poor people for their own benefit?  Hilarious, if you ask me.

As I said before - innocent until proven guilty.  But this ain't some minority in the Bronx being prosecuted - the cops will be quite careful here.

[Sam Spade]

So they put him in Rikers!  I'm amazed.

Now he'll get some action there too, but of a different sort.  lolololol

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/IMF-Chief-Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-Sexual-Assault-France-NYC-121892809.html

[Sam Spade]

This is the type of case where no one beats NY tabloids.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/imf_accuser_in_apt_for_hiv_vics_oZmUkbtouJ14RHw1434HvJ

Guess Sarkozy is so damn brilliant that he put him in jail and gave him AIDS too!

[Sam Spade]

Several blogs I read, written by radical libertarians, seem to be on DSK's side.  Strange bedfellows, eh, Tony?

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/05/case-for-imf-chief-dominique-strauss.html

It is no accident that those who cannot obtain sex by normal means tend to be the most supportive of rape

[Sam Spade]

New IFOP poll out - Full numbers for every candidate in 1st round are not given in the article.

At any rate: 1st round - Hollande 28, Sarkozy 26
2nd round - Hollande 54, Sarkozy 46

http://www.ntn24.com/news/news/sarkozy-gains-ground-socialist-9250

[Sam Spade]

Well it may be true he can't win, but then neither can Le Pen and yet Sarko's desperately trying to court her vote; so hopefully Mélenchon can at least have that effect.

...so that Hollande is forced to look like an extremist, loses votes to the centre and allows Sarko to win. Great idea.

"Hollande is forced to look an extremist" = appealing to the Left. If he did that to the point he'd be alienating centrist voters, he'd inevitably gain those Left voters, making it nowhere near the losing strategy you purport it to be and one where the Left doesn't overly worry itself about appealing to the centre - I do think that'd be great, yeah.

Really ? He already called for a 75% marginal tax rate - what I had done in Atlasia and which was ridiculed by everybody, even the most leftist people. How do you want him to be more left-wing without scaring every single centrist and push them back in Sarko's hands ? I'm sorry, but this is not going to work. Whether or not we like this, there are centrists too and we can' win without attracting some of them. That doesn't mean we should become like them, but we can't spend all our energies hunting for extremist votes either. Your strategy is part of the reason why the left loses so often.

The problem with a 75% rate at any level of income above the bottom is that one of two things occurs:

1) Those who can get their income below that level use whatever means possible to do so (whether it be loopholes or making less income or whatever).
2) Those who can't, leave.

Therefore, irregardless of the outcome, your tax revenue actually goes down due to the above factors (or at best does not change).

When the US had the opebo rate (95%, then 70% above a certain number) from World War II to 1981, I can guarantee you that no one ever paid it unless they were idiots (like the Beatles in 1960s in England, which also had the 95% rate).  What happened was that income got pushed into expenditures like pensions and health care, which were cheap at that time, but ballooned later (a lot of today's problems in these areas are precisely due to this earlier misallocation of resources), or people used the loopholes to shelter money to ensure that taxable income was never above the danger level. (pre-1986 tax code in US was just insane in this regard - all interest could be written off, same with real estate expenditures, there were so many other loopholes, was just hilarious)

There's a little debate as to what the best level is for taxes where you don't see the above occur - I personally think it starts to level off at 55% total (not just marginal rate, but all taxes).  Torie thinks 60%.

[Sam Spade]

If anybody seriously believed Hollande would/will win by anything over 8-10 points, they needed/need to get their head checked (and read my blog). Mitterrand didn't defeat a terrible candidate like Chirac by anymore than 54-46 in 1988, and Charles fu-king De Gaulle didn't win by anymore than 10 points in 1965.

This is quite correct.

[Sam Spade]

Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.

[Sam Spade]

Even though I don't understand a word of French, I am often forced to watch more of this election than I want to for personal reasons.  I have no preferences, as the French quasi-monarchy/top-down-run bureaucratic super-structure is perhaps the least innovative and most necessary of complete demolition in Europe (if not the world), so it's not like any particular option changes this state of events.

1) The numbers have long suggested that Sarkozy is toast. (like for the past year).  Probably a 1% chance that I'm wrong here, and it may well depend on Hollande showing he is incompetent somehow (possible).
2) I really don't understand why the Socialists want to be in power now, of all times, as when they get in, they're soon going to have start f-ing their own constituency base because they will have no choice (see Zapatero).  But when Mickey Mouse (or French equivalent) can likely win, you really have no other option, I guess.
3) As above, I don't understand French, but I do watch for other things, and I can tell you that Hollande will be a bad president at a time when France will not need one.  You will probably get something a whole lot worse the next time around, and that person may actually have talent.

That is all for now.

You know what they say Sam, about how it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt?
That.

I think that every time you post.