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big bad fab
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« on: January 20, 2011, 11:54:36 am »

I really think there is no threat to see Marine "PanzerGirl" in the 2nd round.

For the moment, she has the right positioning,

- being far-rightist in the European meaning of the word, i.e. secularism against Islam, but a bit less against immigration and crime, a bit less openly racist (as she knows that she must be "acceptable" for French medias and distance herself from Big Old Daddy; while still appealing to old extremist voters, who don't understand the difference between Islam and immigration and so still think she is as racist as Daddy, which is fine for them),

- being modern on social and moral matters (as she knows traditional Villiers voters will go to Boutin or Sarkozy and make at best 1.5 %),

- being leftist on economical and social matters, as the far-left is divided (surprising, eh ?), with the only one doing good in the polls (Besancenot) hesitating to be candidate and very debated inside the far lest apparatuses, and as Mélenchon has peaked too early.

Despite these very good points, electorally and tactically speaking, well, everybody knows what happened in 2002 and this won't occur again.

Plus, as I've already said, other potential outsiders are down (Bayrou, Villepin, Mélenchon, Besancenot, Joly). Even Hulot and Borloo are already shooting in their own foot, by procrastinating, and they would anyway be bad campaigners, whatever the big propaganda efforts made by the French medias if they are candidates.

So, I don't think Marine will make it to the 2nd round.

BUT she'll destroy one of the 2 candidates and, in a way, she'll decide the winner as soon as in the first round.

If DSK or Hollande is candidate, Sarkozy will be eaten both by the socialist candidate, who will gather Bayrou and centre-right voters, and by Marine Le Pen as he won't be able to steal FN voters in the same way as 2007 (have you seen the small ironic smile of Marine Le Pen when she spoke about 2007 and some promises of Sarkozy towards the popular electorate, both industry jobs and tough crime policy, that failed miserably ? She knows these voters won't go to Sarkozy again).

If Aubry is candidate after a tough campaign against Royal and/or Hollande in which she is forced to take Hamon and Emmanuelli's ideas, Aubry will be deprived of popular electorate by Marine Le Pen, as they anyway won't vote for Delors' daughter, and won't be able to prevent Sarkozy from doing a centrist move (Sarkozy may well think, in this case, he could try to force another 2002 situation).

This second scenario is far less likely, as, without DSK, the "right wing" PS will be divided between Valls, Hollande, maybe Moscovici and even Delanoë and as Aubry will be able to remain in a center position inside the PS.

In a way, Sarkozy 2007 recipe will be the exact thing that will kill him in 2012:
he should have gone more centrist as soon as 2008, in order to favour a Copé or some tough right politician to be candidate in order to kill Marine and let him being the centre-right candidate.

Of course, this is not at all his personality but that would have probably been the best solution.
(and, of course, it's easy to say this now... I didn't think about it in 2008... Tongue)

In a nutshell, I think Sarkozy has already lost, as only a too leftist Aubry (or a Royal but she won't win the primary) may give him the election.



I post this again in order to BUMP the thread and answer to Benoît in the right thread and to tell him that he bases his analysis a bit too much on TV image.
Marine Le Pen is a bad politician, with no credibility, OK, but which one is really credible nowadays ?
Sure, DSK, Fillon, Hollande, Juppé aren't too ridiculous, but they are so few...
That doesn't count, unfortunately.

In 2012, the right will have been in power for 10 years. This simple fact is a big reason why Sarkozy is probaby doomed.



And, Hash, it's Gerin, not Gérin.
Just to make your overview a bit closer to perfection and completeness Wink.

BTW, there is still to see a real candidate from the far-left emerge to take Besancenot's place.
Maybe Mélenchon will benefit from this, or Besancenot will be a candidate after all.
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« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2011, 08:39:06 am »

BVA 14 & 15 / 1

Arthaud 0
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 5
Aubry 23
Joly 5
Bayrou 6
Borloo 5
Villepin 5
Sarkozy 27
Le Pen 17

Arthaud 0
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 4
Aubry 31
Joly 6
Bayrou 5
Borloo 2
Villepin 3
Sarkozy 25
Le Pen 17

Funny to see that DSK steals points first to Borloo, Sarkozy and Villepin !!
Besancenot remains ridiculously high: there is again a strong leftist rebellious vote that is still up for grabs and many French people haven't really followed what is happening inside the far left.

Aubry/Sarkozy 57/43
DSK/Sarkozy 64/36

What is amazing is what happens between the 2 rounds:
- DSK receives 69% of Bayrou voters (not a great surprise), 68% of Villepin voters and 34% of Le Pen voters !!! (Sarkozy has only 24% of Le Pen voters...)
- Aubry takes 49% of Bayrou (25% for Sarkozy), 48% of Villepin (!!! Sarkozy takes only 31% !!!), 33% of Le Pen (Sarkozy 40%) and, last but not least, 48% of Borloo (!!! OMG !!! Sarkozy only 45% !)

Of course, these percentages apply to very small samples... But, still....
It may prove that there strong anger and disappointment
among centre-right voters (politically forgotten and irritated by bling-bling and by Hortefeux-Estrosi)
and among FN voters (many really believed in Sarkozy in 2007 and the disappointment is now very deep).

Sarkozy's popularity is very low among centrist voters (MoDem + NC, if this has any meaning in a poll with such a sample....): 65% of bad opinions, while Fillon has 65% of... good opinions.
And among FN voters, Sarkozy has 70% of bad opinions (while Fillon has only 55%).

With Copé playing the lil' capitalist like Sarkozy in 2007, with personal disputes again at work (Copé-Bertrand, Devedjian-sarkozysts, Copé-Fillon, Woerth-all the UMP,...), with another defeat in the cantonales in March, with Larcher threatened in the Senate in September,
and now with Sarkozy amazingly badly positioned, as he is rebuted from the far-right AND from the center-right,
I really don't see how he could win.

Fillon could be able to win against Aubry (but not DSK or Hollande), but Sarkozy has a small chance only against Royal...
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« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2011, 01:30:39 pm »

Sarkozy will kill the UMP in his own defeat.

It will be interesting to see if Copé is able to save a big bunch of it: after all, he can keep the former DL with him, BUT he may not be able to keep many, many former RPRs. His strength will be that Fillon is alone.

If Sarkozy's defeat means DSK victory (do you really think he will be able to be re-elected in 2017 Grin ?) and a plural right, with a strong centre-right, well, why not, after all ? Wink

OK, OK, this is the 2012 thread... sorry...



Yes, Antonio, Aubry at 57% in a BVA poll: you can understand how sad I can be these days Tongue Cheesy
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« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2011, 05:57:16 pm »

I'd say BVA and IFOP are better for some years now (and Opinion Way, surprisingly !)
IPSOS is still nr.1, but with a lesser margin.
SOFRES is probably the one which has lost the biggest ground since the mid 2000s.
ViaVoice hasn't polled enough to be sure.
CSA is still the French Zogby.
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2011, 10:35:10 am »

The centrist group in the Senate is about to elect a new president.

Le Figaro calculates that there are 7 MoDem or close to it, 9 NC or close to it and 10 AC or close to this small Arthuis' party.
Which leaves 3 without any clear label.

And, of course, there... 3 candidates for this incredibly important presidency Wink.
But not Valérie Létard, NC but close to Borloo, who is still inside the UMP with his Radical Party.

And the candidate which is AC, Zocchetto, seems to disagree with Arthuis, as Arthuis has joined Morin and the NC in a project of a new centrist confederation, and seems to let open the door for Bayrou...

You have'nt understood anything ?
That just means you're normal Grin.
There is almost a new wing with each new centrist Cheesy.

Now, you've got the NC members who are in favour of Borloo (J.C. Lagarde, Létard, Leroy, even Sauvadet, though a bit less for the latter), those who are in favour of an alliance with Arthuis, but don't want to be too kind with Bayrou (Dionis du Séjour), those who first want to be seen as different from the UMP (Morin).

Inside the MoDem, divisions are a bit less deep, as they are... less and less numerous. But, Michel Mercier is still MoDem, while you've got many local apparatchiki who are more on the left.

Fascinating.

BTW, maneuvers from Arthuis may mean he wants the Senate presidency for himself next September, when a hung Senate is a likely possibility.
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« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2011, 06:29:10 pm »

What is fascinating is that AC senators felt a bit betrayed by Arthuis making friends with Morin too... quickly.
OMG, we are in 2011 ! 4 years after the explosion of the center-right...

It's so fun to see that even small chiefs have no big power in their small cohorts Cheesy.
Morin is almost alone in his own party;
Arthuis isn't followed in the first political test for him since 2007;
both MoDem newcomers (greener and more to the left) and remaining ex-UDF local barons feel betrayed by Bayrou (who hasn't signed an agreement with the left or who opposes the government too harshly).

Miam, miam ! J'aime la "micro-politique" ! Cheesy

When you see all the "presidential" candidates everywhere (see the Greens, see the Front de Gauche, see the many centrist organizations, see the PS), it seems as if France is experiencing a pre-primary fool day, as its "new" de facto fully presidential regime has now its first real election (2007 was a transition one between the old system and the new one).

After all, 2012 isn't so bad for the moment, electorally and "parochialistically" speaking.
But maybe it will be more 2011 than 2012 which will be interesting... Tongue
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« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2011, 06:03:13 am »

CSA-Marianne, made 14-15 Feb. by phone (sample 1005):

DSK 29 / 61
Sarkozy 22 / 39
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 8
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 6
Joly 5
Villepin 4
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

Sarkozy 26 / 46
Aubry 22 / 54
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 9
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 6
Joly 6
Villepin 5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

Sarkozy 26 / 54
Hollande 20 / 46
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 10
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 7
Joly 6
Villepin 5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

Sarjozy 26 / 50
Royal 18 / 50
Le Pen 17
Bayrou 10
Besancenot 7
Mélenchon 8
Joly 7
Villepin 5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

So, DSK is amazingly strong on the paper, because he doesn't steal (at least directly) voters from Bayrou, Joly, Villepin, but from this very Sarkozy !!!
(even if it's probably indirect: myself, I'd vote Sarkozy in the 1st round only if it's not DSK candidate...)



IFOP France-Soir, made by "computer assisted web interviewing" on 16-17 Feb. (sample 949 registered voters among a total sample of 1068)

DSK 26
Sarkozy 22
Le Pen 19
Bayrou 7
Joly 7
Villepin 4
Morin 2
Besancenot 5.5
Mélenchon 6
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 0.5

Aubry 22
Sarkozy 23
Le Pen 20
Bayrou 8
Joly 7
Villepin 5
Morin 2.5
Besancenot 5
Mélenchon 5.5
Arthaud 1
Dupont-Aignan 1

OMG, will IFOP be the disappointment of this election or is PanzerGirl really so high ??
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« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2011, 06:32:11 am »

DSK may be hoping that Sarkozy has a rebound Tongue

Because if Sarkozy is crunched from both sides, as he is now, the prospect of a big, big victory of the left fuels the left of the PS...

Everything is about dynamics and momentums...
Enjoy this spring Grin, as 2012 may be a boring election after all the pre-electoral dust is settled...
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« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2011, 07:15:36 am »

From the IFOP poll (beware, it's an Internet one):

Le Pen has 37%/34% of workers (Aubry and DSK hypotheses) and 32% of employees...

The only "stronghold" for Sarkozy (but "only" with 27-29%): the retirees.
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« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2011, 04:24:59 am »

CSA 21-22 Feb., sample of 1005 RV

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 6
DSK 28
Joly 4
Bayrou 5.5
Villepin 5
Morin 1
Sarkozy 23
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 18

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 6
DSK 33
Joly 5
Bayrou 4.5
Villepin 5
Morin 1
Fillon 18
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 18

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 6
DSK 34
Joly 4
Bayrou 5.5
Villepin 9
Morin 1
Copé 12
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 19

Arthaud 1
Besancenot 8
Mélenchon 7
DSK 33
Joly 5
Bayrou 5.5
Villepin 9
Morin 1
Borloo 12
Dupont-Aignan 0.5
Le Pen 18

Of course, it's so obvious that Sarkozy will be the candidate that Copé and Borloo have bad results as this seems so weird they can be the UMP candidate. But still, that's quite bad for them.

What's fascinating is that the main winner in case Sarkozy isn't candidate is again... DSK himself !
And, of course, Villepin if it's not Fillon.

(What's irritating is this stupidly high Besancenot...)



Now that DSK is candidate (of course, guys !), with Aubry PM or Finance minister and Fabius Foreign Affairs minister or Speaker of the National Assembly,
will Hollande be able to gather more leftist voters in the primary ?

It's of course doubtful, but he was dear to old activists inside the PS and he might be able to appear more central inside the PS (almost like Aubry is for now) than DSK.
Of course, he will have a fine exposure after the cantonales results.

Obviously, Hamon may be candidate and, then, it's over. But that would be a fine paradox to see Hamon making DSK win more easily !

Or do you think Delanoë could take this role of a more leftist candidate against DSK ?
If Hollande slows down and if Aubry succeeds in keeping Hamon calm (in DSK's name), Delanoë could be tempted.
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« Reply #10 on: March 03, 2011, 05:56:53 am »

The election will be boring as the socialist candidate will win.
So, better to be interested in all this suspense BEFORE the election Wink.

Even though I think, he'll be a candidate.
When he said he regrets that Delors wasn't candidate in 1995, well, it says all.
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« Reply #11 on: March 03, 2011, 08:33:13 am »

It's not like I care whether or not he runs. Socialists can win without him, and I'd be fully satisfied with either Aubry or him. But with the election aproaching, not even knowing who is our candidate is rather annoying.

Jospin, 1995 and Royal, 2007 were picked later (sure, they lost Wink, but that wasn't the reason).

Let me enjoy the suspense with the constant rise of Hollande, probably boosted by medias after the 27th of March (cantonales' second round).

Let me enjoy some drame from Royal.

Let me enjoy the possible fight between Fabius and Aubry if she tries to turn around DSK.

Let me enjoy the many governments on paper that will begin to be listed from July.

At least, on the left, this pre-electoral year is very interesting Wink.
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« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2011, 09:51:20 am »

Hey, look at this, we were just talking about it !

IFOP poll, 24-25 February, sample of 524 leftists among a national sample of 969, with 219 socialists among the 524 leftists:

among leftists (polls of 6-7 Jan., 13-21 Jan., 10-11 Feb. and 24-25 Feb.):
DSK 36 - 41 - 43 - 40
Aubry 20 - 20 - 24 - 17
Royal 15 - 17 - 12 - 17
Hollande 13 - 11 - 11 - 15
Montebourg 7 - 5 - 3 - 4
Valls 4 - 3 - 4 - 4

among socialists only:
DSK 47 - 48 - 46 - 49
Royal 11 - 17 - 14 - 19
Aubry 12 - 17 - 22 - 15
Hollande 18 - 11 - 11 - 15
Valls 4- -2 - 2 - 2
Montebourg 4 - 3 - 3 - 0

So, DSK is still very high: no sign of boredom Grin.
Aubry's rise is stopped, while Hollande is gaining ground and Royal has a chaotic trend, as usual, but is still harmful for someone.
Montebourg has alreadu failed and Valls is at his rate on the right of the PS, like Bockel before him.

What is great to see is results among far-leftists (dont' know the sample):
DSK 19 (tout de même !), Aubry only 29, Royal 23, Hollande 16

Among Besancenot voters in 2007:
DSK 32 (amazing !), Aubry 21, Royal 17, Hollande 20

Among Front de Gauche partisans (teah... the sample may be pretty tiny...):
DSK 27, Aubry 21 (lol), Royal 17, Hollande 20

Among Greens:
DSK 41, Aubry 15, Royal 12 (lol), Hollande 14



Now, if DSK isn't candidate:
Aubry 30 (-7), Hollande 30 (+10), Royal 21 (-1), Montebourg 9 (-1), Valls 8 (+1) among leftists.
THIS is very interesting !

Among socialists: Aubry 34 (-3), Hollande 30 (+7), Royal 25 (+3), Valls 6 (-1), Montebourg 4 (-4)



If Aubry isn't candidate,
among leftists: DSK 46, Hollande 21, Royal 20, Montebourg 7, Valls 4
among socialists: DSK 54 (geez !), Hollande 18, Royal 22, Montebourg 3, Valls 2



Pretty clear, eh ?
It was after "DSK tour in Paris". Of course, it's before Aubry's latest mediatic moves since last Monday, but she is already criticized for stealing the PS project for herself.

DSK are Hollande live with journalists: it always helps Wink.
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2011, 11:59:00 am »

Harris is polling only online, with samples that can be under 800.

They've got a quota method applied only to gender, age, socio-professional class and size of city of residence. Not with past voting, not with partisan preference, not with regional residence.

And their political polling history is poor. Even CSA is now able to put almost rational "corrections" in their results.
(and of course, Hash is right on Le Parisien)

What is true is that
- Sarkozy is slowly declining (he has a double-negative momentum: if he says something on immigration, centre-rightists flee towards DSK or Hollande; if he says something more moderate, Le Pen says he is betraying his 2007 promises to popular voters),

- Aubry is a weak candidate (please read the detailed numbers I've posted on previous page Grin),

- "Panzergirl" hasn't the under-valuation that her father had; I even think she has a slight over-valuation, because people may use her name to "protest" through opinion polls: it's not a shame to say her name (even more by clicking behind a screen).

And remember she has a tremendous media coverage, that is almost indecent. She's everywhere and on every subject, even in leftist medias. As though medias unconsciously think they should compensate for the fact they mostly boycott her father for so long.

So, no panic-mode after the French Zogby has polled Wink.
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2011, 03:39:38 pm »

Le Pen (FN) 23%
Aubry (PS) 21%
Sarkozy (UMP) 21%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Joly (EELV) 7%
Villepin (RS) 7%

To be complete:
Mélenchon 5%
Besancenot 5%
Arthaud 1%
(and well, these "only" 11 points for the whole far left may also explain why Panzergirl is so high)
Morin 1% (when will he drop this idea to be candidate ?)
Dupont-Aignan 1%

And now Harris is announcing it will do another 2 polls: one with DSK as socialist candidate and one with Hollande.
Panzergirl is the winner of the day, but Aubry may well be the loser of the week to come Wink.
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« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2011, 11:02:01 am »

I would enjoy seeing a second round vote between DSK and LePen with Sarko knocked out after the first round. I guess the only question in that scenario is whether DSK gets 75% or 80%.

My fear is that a lot of right-wingers would be more encline to vote for a far-rightist than for a moderate social-democrat like Strauss Khan. I don't know how much of them would, but my guts say DSK could very well fall below 70% in your scenario.

I don't agree with you, Antonio.
Hate or disappointment towards Sarkozy is very high even on the right and when DSK is tested in place of Aubry or Hollande, DSK steals votes mainly in... Sarkozy voters !
Of course, the process can be partially indirect, through Borloo, Bayrou, Hulot or other candidates, but, still, this is the main change.

And all the Sarkozy voters who are potential voters for the far-right are... already gone, now Wink !

On the contrary, you may have some 3-4% from the far-left going to Panzergirl.
With an additional 3-4% from Sarkozy, Dupont-Aignan and... Bayrou, she would be at 30%, sure, but not at 35% or even 33%.
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« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2011, 04:52:38 pm »

Harris polls with other socialist candidates:

Le Pen 24, DSK 23, Sarkozy 21 20 (fixed: some medias were wrong)
Le Pen 24, Sarkozy 21, Hollande 20
Le Pen 23, Sarkozy 21, Aubry 21
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« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2011, 06:23:02 am »

To be complete:

Marine Le Pen: 23 / 24 / 24
Nicolas Sarkozy: 21 / 21 / 20
Martine Aubry: 21 / François Hollande: 20 / DSK: 23
Eva Joly: 7 / 7 / 7
Dominique de Villepin: 7 / 5 / 4
François Bayrou: 8 / 8 / 6
Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 5 / 6 / 7
Olivier Besancenot: 5 / 6 / 6
Nathalie Arthaud: 1 / 1 / 1
Hervé Morin: 1 / 1 / 1
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: 1 / 1 / 1

The sample of the first one is 1618 and quotas have been applied also along 2007 votes. So, its better than expected Tongue.

Of course, we must keep in mind it's an Internet poll (always easier to click than explicitly pronounce the syllabs LE-PEN)
and that Harris keeps applying the "Jean-Marie Le Pen" correction of about 2%.
Don't forget that Jean-Daniel Lévy (director of "opinion" department in Harris Interactive) had the same role inside CSA some years ago: he was also responsible for Bayrou ahead of Royal in 2007 Wink.... and for some highly controversial polls with JM Le Pen higher than from every other pollster.

Add a margin of error of 2-3%, of course, and she can be ahead easily...

But, of course, we must acknowledge that the different results for the far-left, for Villepin and for Bayrou are really logical in the 3 hypotheses (too logical ? I mean, other pollsters have DSK stealing votes not so much from Villepin or Bayrou but from Sarkozy !).
So, it could really mean that Sarkozy and Besancenot have indeed lost potential voters in favour of Marine Le Pen...

When I've said 2011 would be far more interesting than 2012... Wink

Cantonales will be fascinating in a way.
Because, if turnout is low, the new threshold to be in the second round will act as a FN-killer and as a "bipolarizer".

But if turnout is VERY low, the FN may be able to kill the right (in North of France, between Montpellier and Marseille or around Lyon) or the left (in inner Provence and Côte d'Azur or along north-eastern borders) and then to grasp some cantons in the second round...

It will be interesting in Ain, Vaucluse, Moselle, Seine-et-Marne, Rhône, Loire and even Pyrénées-Orientales or Drôme !
« Last Edit: March 08, 2011, 06:33:52 am by big bad fab »Logged

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« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2011, 05:10:17 pm »

Oh yes, sure !
But it wouldn't put her in the second round.

It seems IFOP only make a 1 point correction.
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« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2011, 05:14:44 pm »

But it wouldn't put her in the second round.

Until she picks up a few more points, and/or "official" candidates lose a few more points.

My nightmare: Aubry is the PS candidate and Sarko is ousted in the first round...
Forced to vote for Aubry !!!! GASP !!!! Sad Wink
DSK, Hollande, even Royal (err... maybe because I know she can't be candidate Wink) would make me less sick.

BTW, pollsters seem to have dropped Royal as a possibility in the options they are testing... how hilarious !
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« Reply #20 on: March 10, 2011, 06:35:05 am »

Back to serious business with an IFOP poll for France-Soir (done on 7th to 9th of March; sample: 1046)

Marine Le Pen again on the rise, but onyl Royal (LOL) is unable to beat her in the 1st round.

Sarkozy 24 / 23 / 24 / 24
Aubry 24 / DSK 29 / Hollande 23 / Royal 19
Le Pen 22 / 21 / 22 / 22
Bayrou 7 / 6 / 7.5 / 8
Morin 1.5 / 1 / 2 / 2
Villepin 4.5 / 3 / 4 / 5
Dupont-Aignan 1 / 1.5 / 1 / 1
Joly 6 / 5.5 / 6.5 / 7
Mélenchon 5 / 5 / 5 / 6
Besancenot 4 / 4 / 4 / 5
Arthaud 1 / 1 / 1 / 1

At last, Besancenot is sliding under 5%.

BUT it seems to benefit to Panzergirl, as I've already said. When you look at the internal numbers of this poll, she indeed grasps a small number of far-left voters.
And she of course wins back many voters stolen by Sarkozy in 2007.

What is amazing is that, whatever the hypothesis, she is at 37-38% in BOTH categories of workers and employees.

Villepin is more in line with usual numbers. He was really high in Harris Interactive now famous poll.
DSK logically steals voters from Bayrou and Joly, but also from Villepin.

Hollande is almost on a par with Aubry. DSK remains higher, but all the other (Sarkozy, Aubry, Hollande are really threatened by Panzergirl.

One positive side in this: the sooner Panzergirl peaks, the sooner and the more she will go down...
Or not ?
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« Reply #21 on: March 13, 2011, 08:45:01 am »

CSA for La Dépêche du Midi, 9-10 March, sample: 853

No other detail for the moment than the "big 3".

Sarkozy 19 / 24 / 24 / 24
DSK 30 / Aubry 22 / Royal 19 / Hollande 18
Le Pen 21 / 23 / 22 / 22

So, Panzergirl is always on the second round.
And only DSK qualifies.
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« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2011, 12:25:42 pm »

All right. Now it's time to start praying for Strauss-Khan.

It will be interesting to see the internals, as CSA is a bit better than it was in 2007.
The only number I've read for the moment is that, among retirees, DSK is at 34% against 30% for Sarkozy.

This is the real winning strategy for the PS now: fighting Sarkozy directly, in its own backyard.
And this, Aubry is unable to do.

The PS has to keep on this double negative momentum for Sarkozy, who is eaten from the right and from the centre and the centre-right.
Whatever he says or does, he loses on the far-right or on the centre-right. This is avicious circle only DSK is able to feed.

Of course, all this is really far away from the election and I hope all the "Truth and Cleanness Gods" (Mediapart, Rue89 et alii) will begin to dig in Le Pen more than in Sarkozy past.

But with some "breakings" to come probably on Karachi, Balladur 1995 campaign, Longuet's past, Elysee private polls or anything else, it is likely that Panzergirl will remain high for the months to come, though with a possible little decrease after the cantonales elections.
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« Reply #23 on: March 13, 2011, 03:35:01 pm »

Don't know whether I should be scared at this sh**t or whether I should laugh at CSA considering their wonderful track record.

They are better for about 2 years. Maybe because Jean-Daniel Lévy has joined Harris Interactive Tongue.

And, TBH, this poll is pretty in line with IFOP one.
But, of course, there may be some suivisme in all the pollsters...
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« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2011, 05:12:42 am »

Of course, there will be vote utile ("useful vote") if there is a dead heat with Marine Le Pen (my own Boutin vote is threatened Grin).

But the problem is that it may be not enough.
And polls are forbidden on Saturday and Sunday (polling day). No useful poll can be done and largely published after the Thursday, in fact.
In 2002, that was in the very last days that Jean-Marie Le Pen  has beaten Jospin (confidential polls have measured this, but it was too late to make it public).

In the end, between Jospin and Jean-Marie Le Pen, there was less than 1%.
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