France 2012: the official thread (user search)
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 359750 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: March 05, 2011, 12:38:16 PM »
Quote from: Hashpipe on March 05, 2011, 12:35:43 PM
BFM poll which has people talking:

Le Pen (FN) 23%
Aubry (PS) 21%
Sarkozy (UMP) 21%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Joly (EELV) 7%
Villepin (RS) 7%

Just wanted to post this ... Wink

This was done by Harris Interactive, so I guess this is an Internet poll ?

Did they also poll the 2nd round (couldn't find anything) ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2011, 01:00:06 PM »
Not that I want it, but it would be somehow funny if Palin wins in the US in 2012, Le Pen wins in France in 2012 and Strache in Austria in 2013 ... Tongue

(The only one with real chances though is Strache)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: April 23, 2011, 11:48:46 PM »
Were there already any polls showing how much support Marine LePen would get in a run-off against the other candidates ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2011, 12:33:22 PM »
An Austrian MP is under heavy fire for saying this about DSK in parliament:

"Obwohl er schon ein reiferer Mann, zeigt Dominique Strauss, was er noch Ka(h)nn."

"Even though Dominique Strauss is already a mature man, he still shows what he can (Kahn)."

http://derstandard.at/1304552182958/Grossruck-sorgt-mit-Strauss-Kahn-Reim-fuer-Empoerung

The Greens want him to step down because of that, while the ÖVP backs him. All other parties are condemning the remarks as well.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2011, 12:38:18 PM »
I just read that this ÖVP MP closed his parliamentary sessions always with a rhyme in the last years ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2011, 09:13:21 AM »
Who exactly can vote today and who is expected to win ? Is there a 2nd round ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2011, 09:23:31 AM »
Quote from: VICTORY 10.06.11 on October 09, 2011, 09:20:19 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 09, 2011, 09:13:21 AM
Who exactly can vote today and who is expected to win ? Is there a 2nd round ?

Please read earlier posts on this topic, sometimes just 1-2 pages back.

Anybody can vote as long as they pay 1 euro and sign a charter of left-wing values.

Sry, I can't read 50 pages ... Tongue

What are the exact figures of how many of these "leftist" voters registered to vote and where can you find them ?

If everyone had to pay 1€ to register, did the money go to the PS as campaign money ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2011, 03:37:05 AM »
Quote from: Assemblyman of the Mideast ZuWo on October 10, 2011, 02:39:34 AM
Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2011, 03:43:49 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 10, 2011, 03:37:05 AM
Quote from: Assemblyman of the Mideast ZuWo on October 10, 2011, 02:39:34 AM
Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

Also, does anyone have polls about the current support for parties for the upcoming parliamentary elections ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2011, 03:58:35 AM »
Quote from: Allez Martine ! on October 10, 2011, 03:55:18 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 10, 2011, 03:37:05 AM
Quote from: Assemblyman of the Mideast ZuWo on October 10, 2011, 02:39:34 AM
Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

It seems that about 40% of the 2007 Socialist voters took part in the primary.

BTW, are there already any run-off polls ? And have the defeated candidates already made announcements if they will endorse Hollande or Aubry or none ?

No poll so far, but I'm eager to see them ! Smiley

Valls endorsed Hollande last evening already. Montebourg and Royal said they'll announce soon their endorsements.


As for parliamentary elections, pollster only poll them only once the presidential election is over. Since presidential and parliamentary terms coincide, parliamentary elections have become totally useless and only a confirmation of the president's victory. That's discusting, but that's how things are.

Wasn't Royal once married with Hollande ? I guess she will endorse him.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2011, 04:47:38 AM »
Quote from: Allez Martine ! on October 10, 2011, 04:33:30 AM
Election map ! Smiley Results are not absolutely definitive, but changes are very unlikely now.



Hollande-slide ! Grin Surprising to see such a uniform map when you remember the chaotic Reims one...

Well, you can clearly see which districts the TOP-3 represent ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2011, 01:56:29 AM »
Really hard to say who wins this. It looked like Hollande would have the lead in the run-offs, but these run-offs are always very hard to predict. I think he still wins by about 56-44.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2011, 03:27:33 AM »
Yeah, look a bit bad for Aubry.

I'll probably stick with my prediction of a 56-44 win for Hollande. But anything between 53-60% should be possible for him.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2011, 02:15:28 AM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on October 16, 2011, 12:38:09 AM
What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... Tongue
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2011, 02:52:19 AM »
Quote from: Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation on October 16, 2011, 02:44:54 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 02:15:28 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on October 16, 2011, 12:38:09 AM
What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... Tongue

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2011, 03:04:25 AM »
Quote from: Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation on October 16, 2011, 02:56:22 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 02:52:19 AM
Quote from: Chemistry & Sleep Deprivation on October 16, 2011, 02:44:54 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 02:15:28 AM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on October 16, 2011, 12:38:09 AM
What time will the polls close today (CET)? What's the best link for results?

If it's a really close race, we won't know for a 3 days because the Socialists tend to be incompetent in counting the votes within a few hours (see first round) ... Tongue

They are not incompetent. The informatic system clogged up because too much officers were putting their results.

Some didn't liked that and left to sleep, updating their results on another day.
Apparently, some were old people which refused to stay to count at night, too.

Ah, ok, that explains it.

We just have to hope than they improved the capacity of their system.
And than they gave clear orders to the officers.

Yeah. Hopefully.

So, when are the polls closing as Phil wanted to know ? 9pm (3pm Eastern) ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2011, 10:38:14 AM »
Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2011, 10:53:16 AM »
Quote from: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 10:51:26 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 10:38:14 AM
Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio Tongue).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2011, 11:03:07 AM »
Quote from: Allez Martine ! on October 16, 2011, 10:58:25 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 10:53:16 AM
Quote from: big bad fab on October 16, 2011, 10:51:26 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 10:38:14 AM
Will there be some kind of exit poll at 19:00, or do we have to wait a few hours for some results ?

No exit poll AFAIK.

Harlem Désir hasn't been very clear: he says +7% for the turnout at 13:00, but gives numbers that mean +8.5% and refers to his won numbers one week ago which would mean +16%....

Anyway, turnout is up and it seems to be up more than I thought: everything above 10-12% would be a bit worrying for Hollande (but I don't want to give false hopes to Antonio Tongue).

Why exactly would you think that much higher turnout would not benefit Hollande ?

I guess that would mean non-PS voters (from the Left Front or the Greens), who lean strongly toward Aubry, turning out in significant numbers.

On the other hand it could also be normal PS voters who didn't vote in round 1. After all, only 40% of PS voters voted in the first round.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2011, 12:14:25 PM »

Thx. Just wanted to ask where I can find it.

Wink
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2011, 12:46:03 PM »
The next polls that will come out will probably show Hollande destroy Sarkozy by 65-35.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2011, 03:01:30 AM »

Actual result:

56.6% Hollande
43.4% Aubry

Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2011, 03:42:18 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 16, 2011, 12:46:03 PM
The next polls that will come out will probably show Hollande destroy Sarkozy by 65-35.

Well, not so bad - but almost:

New CSA poll: Hollande 62%, Sarkozy 38%

http://www.tagesschau.sf.tv/Nachrichten/Archiv/2011/10/19/International/Sarkozy-Herausforderer-Hollande-liegt-klar-vorn
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2011, 08:27:45 AM »

It's getting closer ! New BVA poll:

Hollande 64%, Sarkozy 36%

http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/french-news/socialist-hollande-would-crush-france-s-sarkozy-poll_183275.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: February 18, 2012, 07:19:26 AM »
Let's see what I can do with my limited French knowledge:
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