France 2012: the official thread

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Given that this thing is already well under way, and to prevent a further proliferation of threads and more mindless blabber on the subject matter between now and whenever, I figure one official thread would be much more preferable. And no, it isn't too early, given that the candidacies will begin and have begun flowing in already.

I've also decided, for those readers not up to date with all the candidacies, a brief guide of potential and official contenders...

Far-left

Nathalie Arthaud (LO): Arlette's successor in the leadership of LO, the more old-style sectarian Trot outfit. She's running no matter what, but she's not funny so nobody will care this time. She'll gather 1-2% talking about the revolution.

Olivier Besancenot (NPA): He's officially hesitating, but I do think he'll run again. He's the party's only member with a media presence and able to rally beyond the Trot sects. Despite failing in 2009 and epic failing in 2010, and despite internal wrangling before 2010 (which could reemerge); he still has a media image and remains more or less popular. While I don't think he'll do that well, polls have him in the 6-7% range. Perhaps he is benefiting from popular anger at the government, but he risks marginalization once the campaign begins.

There are also even more sectarian Trot organizations like the POI which will try to run, depending on whether they get the 500 endorsements. Maybe Schivardi will run again and be the Official Joke Candidate which every election has had. He's the redneck-like hick farmer who drinks way too much and doesn't support Corsican independence "because he has friends there".

The Left Front

Jean-Luc Mélenchon (PG-FG): Despite his party being a joke, Melenchon (who seems to be trying hard to imitate Marchais) has a major media image and is undoubtedly the FG's largest name. While his candidacy is very likely, it is not accepted by many Communists though the Politburo of the PCF supports his candidacy as part of a common FG candidacy. Interestingly, his candidacy could either kill or rejuvenate the PCF depending on the way you look at it. It could kill it by augmenting internal PCF tensions between the Politburo and the Stalinists hardliners. It could rejuvenate it by its ability to gather more than Buffet's pathetic 2007 result of less than 2%. He has between 4 and 7% in polls, but might have peaked too early. Melenchon notably hates journalists (which, considering how bad French media is, isn't a bad thing) and will probably end up physically assaulting one.

Alain Bocquet (PCF): Deputy for the Nord, and already declared candidate. He's an orthodox, though not a Stalinist. He opposes Melenchon and wants a PCF first round candidacy. While he would probably grudgingly accept an official Melenchon candidacy, it might leave traces on the party. He has called Sarkozy's policies as 'petainist'

André Gérin (PCF): Deputy for the Rhône, he is an hardline borderline Stalinist orthodox. He also dislikes Melenchon, who he says is basically a PS plant. Party like it's 1936!

André Chassaigne (PCF): Deputy for the Puy-de-Dome, he, despite being not that well known nationally, did extremely well in the 2010 regionals in Auvergne (16% or so, iirc). He is not classified as either orthodox or Politburo, and could do well in rural areas. He doesn't seem to oppose Melenchon from the orthodox's "HE IS A SOCIAL-TRAITOR" line.

PS

Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16. The candidacies will be deposited between June 28 and July 13.

(major) official candidates

Ségolène Royal (PS): Everybody's favourite candidate, she is already officially a candidate despite rumours to the contrary. Some say she could yet step aside if DSK (she also said that she'd like him to be her PM) is in or that it isn't too late for some backroom deal with her enemy, Aubry. Though she seems to have laid off the hard drugs since 2008, she remains in dire need of mental treatment. As a result of her medical condition, she performs quite poorly in matchups (17-19%) and her popularity numbers are still down the drain. Yet, we should have learned to never underestimate her: remember Reims? She still has an active troop of fanatics and supporters outside the establishment. An open primary helps her. An active media image and a decent charisma helps her. Though she insisted throughout 2009 and early 2010 that her candidacy was not inevitable, she recently admitted that she never really abandoned the idea.

Arnaud Montebourg (PS): An annoying sod and pathological liar (the crusader against double office-holding now holds 2 if not 3 elected offices), he is candidate on his traditional program of creating a 6th Republic and renewing the party. He has little support given that most of his original faction has split up a billion ways, but he does have the support of Christiane Taubira, which means that he is undoubtedly the candidate of the Annoying Sore Losers' and Stupid Sods Coalition.

Manuel Valls (PS): Deputy-mayor of Evry, he is officially a candidate. Like Montebourg, he's 48 and kind of good looking. He is a leading member of the party's Right or 'social liberal' tendency. He recently created a sh**tstorm within the party by saying the PS should stop being so rigid on the 35-hours. He won't win, but could do decently (especially if DSK isn't in), so he's likely after a plum post or preparing the ground for 2017.

There are also 3 other official candidates: Christian Pierret (mayor of Saint-Die and former secretary of state for industry in 1997), Daniel Le Scornet and Jean Mallot (deputy). Mallot seems to be running as a joke candidate with a sarcastic parody of the primaries and the PS' feuds as his main program.

Potential candidates

Martine Aubry (PS): Party leader. She will decide before June if she does run, likely waiting to see if DSK runs in which case she could potentially not go. Her objective is an obsession to make everything go smoothly and to keep everybody's egos under control. She's doing a rather good job at it, and her numbers are getting better. If DSK isn't in, she is then the frontrunner. She has roughly 22-24% in polls against Sarkozy in the first round.

François Hollande (PS): Former leader and deputy. He could conceivably announce his candidacy, which seems likely, after the cantonals where he is the favourite to retain control of Correze's CG. He is slowly coming up from behind in polls, with 18% in the last primary polling numbers. He remains weak in matchups, with 17-20% in those.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn (PS): Director-General of the IMF, a term expiring in November 2012. Obviously, he himself refuses to talk about the subject matter but he must take a decision before the summer and also then resign his IMF post. His clan unsuccessfully tried to push for a delay in the primaries to give him more time. He is the early frontrunner but his nomination in case of a candidacy isn't a certainty though more likely than not. He is a member of the party's Right, or social-liberal faction which opens him up to attacks from his left from Melenchon and Besancenot. His non-partisan above-the-fray aura coming from his international job makes him the most popular politician in France with like 75-80% favourability ratings. He also leads Sarkozy by the first round with voting intentions hovering between 27 and 31%. He would, right now, crush Sarkozy in a runoff. Some polls even give him like 62-38 in a runoff, which is amusing. Undoubtedly, his aura would fade out and his numbers fall (though not dwindle) if he is candidate. Still the strongest contender.

Outsiders include: Gerard Collomb (mayor of Lyon), who says he's in if DSK isn't. He now seems to be a DSK backer after being behind Royal in 2008. Moscovici is also a candidate if DSK isn't. Even Delanoë (mayor of Paris), who until recently seemed to be out of it, said he might do it if he was in position to do so. Fabius, Hamon, Bianco and Lang will probably not run but could jump in if something really big happened; though it's doubtful.

The other lefties

Eva Joly (EELV): The MEP and Norwegian-born judge is EELV's most likely candidate. She has clear ambitions and the backing of Duflot and Cohn-Bendit. Yet, she seems to have scuttled her early candidacy and strong backing for it, likely because she has difficulty appearing as a media-savy lying bastard of a candidate in the media. She has between 4 and 6% in polls now.

Nicolas Hulot (Ecolo): The famous Telecologist and TV host is again considering whether or not to run, like in 2007. It seems like he's gonna wait a long time again, and I personally doubt he'll run. He would also be a bad candidate, given that he probably can't lead an electoral campaign. He has around 6-8% in polls.

Yves Cochet might run if there are primaries. Duflot and Cohn-Bendit are out.

Jean-Pierre Chevènement (MRC): He says that he's seriously considering running. I kind of doubt it. His fad has passed. This is likely part of his party's traditional bluff to force the PS to whore itself to it and give it a constituency or two.

The PRG (the PS' whores), experts in the game of bluff to force the PS to whore itself to it, are also trying their independent game. With Bernard Tapie probably not running, they have no candidate besides their boring local baron Jean-Michel Baylet who would get trounced outside his family and department.

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Centre

François Bayrou (MoDem): Since the failure of his 09-10 mood of whoring himself to the PS, which was followed by the epic failure of the regionals, Bayrou, who is, now more than ever, in dire need of mental help, is attempting to go back to the centre and try patching up with Sarkozy. He will undoubtedly run again as part of his strategy of pretending that there can be a viable third force. Polls now give him between 5 and 7% or so.

Hervé Morin (NC): The NC is really in an unenviable position. It knows that it really should run a candidate in 2012 to prove itself as a real party and prevent the inevitable debate over when it will disband altogether. Yet, it knows that a candidacy by its leader and former defense minister Hervé Morin would gather a pathetic result between 1 and 3%. Being out of government makes his candidacy a bit easier, but the NC is very reticent about allowing him to go ahead. Jean-Christophe Lagarde would prefer an alliance with the other islands of the centrist archipelago.

Jean-Louis Borloo (PR-UMP): leader of the Radicals and former cabinet minister. The Radicals, an associate party of the UMP, has recently received the adhesion of a number of grumbling UMPers like Rama Yade or Yves Jego. Certain within the UMP, especially the centrists but not Sarkozy, would like a Borloo candidacy in order to have a centre-right 'green' first round candidacy capable of taking votes from Bayrou and even the Greens. I personally am a bit wary of such a strategy, given that it doesn't necessarily mean that Sarkozy would have a significant vote reservoir. Sarkozy is also wary, but perhaps letting him go from cabinet was a sign that he was warming up to the idea. Sarkozy and the UMP's establishment have a weird belief in the myth of "first round victory" which holds that being ahead in the first round gives you a significant boost and dynamic for the runoff.  Thus, any division of the majority would be unwelcome for such a reason. He would also be a bad candidate, given his disorderly image and slightly lazy image.

Right

Christine Boutin (PCD): Egomaniac totally devoid of political skills. Best known for crying a river in Parliament and hating teh gayz peoples. She says she will run in 2012, but I have my doubts.

Dominique de Villepin (RS): He will most likely run. He is attempting a centre-right moderate Gaullist strategy trying to pick up centrist voters and unhappy UMPers. After a spike this summer in polls, his numbers have come down to 3-6%.

Dear Leader Nicolas Sarkozy/the Hungarian Dwarf (UMP): Dear Leader will certainly run again unless he dies or something. He obviously doesn't seem to be the guy who bows out after one term. Unpopular, with approvals in the low 30s for a long time. Hurt by a whole slew of scandals (Karachi, EPAD, mediator, Bettencourt/L'Oreal). Unlike Mitterrand and Chirac, deeply unpopular in their first times, he will not be saved by cohabitation and thus blame-shifting to a government of another colour. Thus, instead of being a 1988/2002 like election, it will be more like 1981. A lot say that voters in the presidential election will forget the bad stuff and vote on issues and stuff like that. If true, it could help him. The left's legendary ability to shoot itself in the foot could help. Despite having a solid base of roughly 25% in all cases, he will be hurt by: a) significant loses with working-class voters, which were important for him in 2007, b) significant loses with middle-class and urban centrist/liberal voters, which turned heavily against the UMP in 2010, c) inability to hold the FN voters he got in 2007.

NDA (DLR): The French JFK, or alternatively a rather annoying person with a mancrush on de Gaulle, will run if he can. Despite low media coverage, he still got 4% in IdF in the regionals, and could catch a fair share of unhappy traditional right-wing voters. Not really polled, he could win between 1 and 4% imo.

Far-right

Marine Le Pen (FN): Official candidate of the party and also the official leader. She might be peaking early, but right now she has a perfect storm brewing. The anti-Islamic stuff works well, but she is also less racist than Daddy on that stuff and she has competently presented the issue as a matter of secularism and not as much ol' racism against ze blacks and ze Ayrabs Moslems. She is moderate on social issues which don't really matter. She has a far more modern image than Daddy who couldn't resist making a racist comment, a borderline neo-Nazi comment and a 1930s-comment on the socialo-communists destroying France. She is left-wing on economic issues, which works well these days. Her big base with party members/rank-and-file is a big plus. She might make the runoff, but the chances of that are under 50%. Parties remember April 21, 2002 and all parties will take out the bazookas like they never do to prevent another one.

Carl Lang (PDF): Old anti-Marine crypto-fascist who split in 2009 from the FN. He is backed by the old 2-member far-right groupings and unsavoury neo-Nazis/fascist types. He is worthless, but perhaps the UMP will secretly boost him to hurt Marine. Yet he'd still win 0.5-1% if he can manage the 500 endorsements.

Jacques Cheminade, the LaRouchite, will also try to run but won't get the 500 endorsements. There are also rumours that Brigitte Bardot would be candidate for the AEI, a small mix of scientologists, loons and centrist greenies; but Waechter has since distanced himself from the AEI to get back with the Greenies.

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CSA (a joke pollster and awful one at that), 20/01

DSK (PS) 30%
Sarkozy (UMP) 23%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 6%
Joly (EELV) 6%
Besancenot (NPA) 5%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Villepin (RS) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 2%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 27%
Aubry (PS) 22%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 9%
Joly (EELV) 6%
Besancenot (NPA) 6%
Villepin (RS) 6%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 26%
Royal (PS) 21%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 10%
Joly (EELV) 8%
Villepin (RS) 7%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Besancenot (NPA) 4%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Sarkozy (UMP) 26%
Hollande (PS) 20%
Le Pen (FN) 17%
Bayrou (MoDem) 9%
Joly (EELV) 8%
Villepin (RS) 7%
Besancenot (NPA) 6%
Melenchon (FG) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 1%
Dupont-Aignan (DLR) 1%

Runoffs:
with DSK: 64-36 for DSK
with Aubry: 56-44 for Aubry
with Royal: 50-50
with Hollande: 55-45 for Hollande

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There are certain similarities, but would you think of making the comparison if they weren't both women? Because the differences are rather large as well; Royal was an established (and ultimately establishment) politician for decades before her run in 2007.

Eh, true. Royal isn't part of the establishment now, though.

I'd argue every PS faction outside the fringe lefties leftover (and even then...) and a few young people which nobody cares about are part of the party's establishment. They're just different clans of the larger establishment supported by a plethora of local barons.

If Segogo was really anti-establishment, then she'd never have stood a chance. One of the reasons she did so well in 2008 was also that she had a lot of local barons lined up behind her, most notably the criminal Guerini family mafia of the Bouches-du-Rhone. Because, yeah, a map of her 2008 support is a map of the local strongholds of the various establishment factions (local barons) who supported her in 2008. In fact, just like every other Congress.

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Even more reason for Sarkozy to be seriously challenged for the nomination.

Yeah, the days pigs will fly.

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Is BVA a reliable pollster or is it like CSA ? I have difficulties to believe Aubry would do better than Mitterrand when he crushed Chirac in 1988.

It's decent, but polls more than a year out are useless junk. Remember the triumphal reelection of Giscard in 1981? Balladur's crushing of Chirac in 1995? Chevenement's 12% in 2002 with Jospin's close runoff victory? Exactly.

Until Ipsos starts polling, then polls are best taken as things to make us salivate.

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Yeah, OpinionWay did good with the regionals. It also thankfully destroyed the left's pathetic line of ZOMGZ TEHY POLL FOR LE FIGARO SO THEY R AWFUL POOLSTERS!!!!

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New candidate yay!

Maxime Gremetz, a hardcore Stalinist hothead, is probably running for the PCF nomination... despite not being a member of the PCF. He has served as deputy for the Somme on-and-off since 1978 and was also an MEP for a while. Originally one of the party's stooges in the late 70s, he has become a thorn in the side of the Politburo of the PCF to the point that they threw him out in 2006 and ran an official PCF candidate against him in 2007 (he also ran as a communist dissident in the 2010 regionals, coming narrowly ahead of the FG list). He's a mad and slightly insane populist, and has been suspected of a deal with the FN to win some public office in some public agency. He is known for being insane, notably by almost running over a police officer in 1998, shoving a PS regional councillor, and then by attacking and apparently looting the office of fellow PCF deputy Daniel Paul. The candidacy of Joseph Stalin's French grandson makes this election fun automatically.

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New candidate yay!

Maxime Gremetz, a hardcore Stalinist hothead, is probably running for the PCF nomination... despite not being a member of the PCF. He has served as deputy for the Somme on-and-off since 1978 and was also an MEP for a while. Originally one of the party's stooges in the late 70s, he has become a thorn in the side of the Politburo of the PCF to the point that they threw him out in 2006 and ran an official PCF candidate against him in 2007 (he also ran as a communist dissident in the 2010 regionals, coming narrowly ahead of the FG list). He's a mad and slightly insane populist, and has been suspected of a deal with the FN to win some public office in some public agency. He is known for being insane, notably by almost running over a police officer in 1998, shoving a PS regional councillor, and then by attacking and apparently looting the office of fellow PCF deputy Daniel Paul. The candidacy of Joseph Stalin's French grandson makes this election fun automatically.

Wow, that's quite impressive. I confusedly heard about the latter, but I couldn't imagine he was such a psychopath.

Maybe Jo Stalin's French son is also Kyle Mercado's dad.

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So, Aubry called Royal impatient and Royal threw a small hissy fit. It seems as if the Traditional Civil War of the PS will start soon.

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Hervé Maurey (NC-Eure), close to Morin and supported by Arthuis, should easily win given that the NC and AC dominate the group.

Also, Jean Louis Bianco has said that he won't run in the PS primaries. I figure that his ego didn't want to get 0.5% of the vote.

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Hervé Maurey (NC-Eure), close to Morin and supported by Arthuis, should easily win given that the NC and AC dominate the group.

But, NO!

Zocchetto won, since the two other candidates retired minutes before the vote, to show unity.
Apparently, according to some medias, AC senators refused to let NC control the group, since they already the Assembly group. They didn't wanted than the NC had more control on the center.

As usual, they are fighting each other while they aren't very relevent (well, except in Senate, since the right hasn't a majority).

That is... surprising. Seemingly Arthuis decided to abandon Maurey last minute to back Zocchetto, who also got support from the MoDem.

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I can't believe polls have now FN at 20%. Either they're gaming the numbers or the next election could be another bloodbath for democracy.

Well, look at the situation:
a) the incumbent President is as popular as the plague, and there is no inspiring alternative within the right
b) aside from DSK, all PS candidates are boring hacks and most are utterly lacking in charisma. Furthermore, as always, the PS has no substance aside from WE R OPPOSITION VOTE 4 US.

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Delanoë seems gone now, he would have a hard time looking credible now. And please God spare us of the infernal (former) couple.

I was shocked when I saw that he was thinking of running. What the hell does he think he's doing? He had his prime, golden chance in 2008 but ruined it when he turned to be a totally incompetent campaigner who couldn't even beat a stupid drug addict. His little aura, thank the Lord, has passed. Now we just need to quash Collomb's remaining aura. Two overrated useless mayors.

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Mini-shuffle:

MAM is dumped, replaced by Juppe. Juppe is replaced by Longuet (president of the senate UMP group). Claude Gueant becomes Interior Minister, and I don't know what they'll do with the Vichyist.

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BFM poll which has people talking:

Le Pen (FN) 23%
Aubry (PS) 21%
Sarkozy (UMP) 21%
Bayrou (MoDem) 8%
Joly (EELV) 7%
Villepin (RS) 7%

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No trolling please. Everyone play nice. Diolch, diolch.

^^^

If this thread derails, I'll lock it.

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I wrote this elsewhere, but:

It's probably a publicity stunt for Le Parisien, which isn't exactly a newspaper for intellectuals. Harris, iirc, polls online (and God knows the FN is well represented on teh interwebs) and it's by consequence a crappy pollster which polls when they're paid to do so. They probably deliberately attempted to frame the poll to get some ZOMGZ results, like polling only Aubry. It is still the first poll to place the far-right ahead of everybody else, but unlike most of the French media/world I won't go into mass-panic mode.

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Thankfully Ifop restores some semblance of sanity. OK, 21% for Daddy's girl is high, but at least she isn't ahead. But perhaps it's good Daddy's girl is peaking this early, given that it might give her more time to come down. And about time Besancenot is coming down. What an overrated snot-nosed opportunistic sh**t.

lol @ Segolene Royal-Palin

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Here's a question for the end-is-nigh mass panickers: who led in polls in 1980, 1987, 1994, 2001 and 2006?

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Don't know whether I should be scared at this sh**t or whether I should laugh at CSA considering their wonderful track record.

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PS
Open primaries (a requirement to pay one euro and sign some stupid declaration of adherence to left-wing values) will be held on October 9 and 16.

Wait, so you have to pay to vote in the primary? That seems kind of... unsocialist.

The PS was in Obama-loving mood in 2008/2009 and decided to hold primaries... without ever understanding the uniqueness of American partisanship and how it allows primaries to work... So, I guess, in order to prevent the right-wingers from overrunning their beauty pageant primary, they decided to make people pay for it.

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I've always thought that, as we live longer, we should be given the right to vote... LATER, not earlier: so immature...

That's borderline insulting to youths with a brain, which is more than a few. In fact, if youths voted more heavily in Canada, for example, we probably wouldn't be as screwed up as we are thanks to the used car salesman from Calgary.

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I have to say this: I'd vote for Royal over DSK, Abry and Hollande... and I would think about voting Besancenot... but probably I would finally vote for whoever PS nominates.

*facepalm*

Yes, I know haha... I'm being honest with myself. I think Royal would make a good president

You're insane.

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No, but seriously, Royal is an idiot. She is quite incompetent, with little positive record in her region aside from running the regional council like her personal fiefdom and pissing off other legislators. Her whole "look at me, i'm anti-system establishment populist" is crap because her backers include a number of prominent party bosses most notably the Godfather of the Bouches-du-Rhone PS. She might be disliked by the current party majority and her backers may be outside the first circle of the Politburo, but there's nothing gutsy or populist about her. She is also, of course, insane as we saw in 2008 where she seemed to be running for the leadership of some religious sect.

Her 2007 platform was also nonsensical in that it consisted of creating an unrealistic number of jobs, increasing the minimum wage by a huge amount and other populist fraud. But most PS policy is nonsensical rhetoric which they can't implement. Her campaign was also a whole jumble of attempts to gain support, be it by playing the nationalist card or acting like a psycho in the debate.