France 2012: the official thread

[redcommander]

If Le Pen manages to make it to the second round, would she be able to improve upon her father's result in 2002?

[redcommander]

What's causing Le Pen's surge in second round polling? She's in the high 20's against the Socialist candidates, and if she were to run against Sarkozy, is in the high 30's.

[redcommander]

I was really hoping Montebourg would have made it to the runoff.

[redcommander]

I was really hoping Montebourg would have made it to the runoff.

Wut ?

I liked him. He spoke out against globalization and is a protectionist.

[redcommander]

***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande, in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Well, I see that as a good sign, regardless of what you guys will say :-).

Isn't Hollande Royal's partner btw?

[redcommander]

***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande, in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Well, I see that as a good sign, regardless of what you guys will say :-).

Isn't Hollande Royal's partner btw?

Was.

That must be a somewhat awkward endorsement then...

[redcommander]

Ok seriously why does the PS manage to keep shooting themselves in the foot? First it was Jospin, then Royal, then DSK, now Hollande has been falling. Can they ever re-win the Presidency? I'm not saying that Hollande isn't still the favorite, but he clearly has fallen greatly.

[redcommander]

If the PS manages to lose yet again, I think it's time for them to disband and let another party take up the left-wing mantle. This is ridiculous.

[redcommander]

If for whatever reason Le Pen doesn't get the necessary signatures to qualify, would Mélenchon take away most of her support since they're both fighting for the same working class section of the electorate?

[redcommander]

Neither of them beat this monstrocity.

Cameron's posters are always too busy, and don't succinctly express his policies.

[redcommander]

BREAKING !

Frédéric Nihous has dropped his bid for the presidency.
He has rallied Sarkozy.

This will probably "free" some mayors, who will be able to sign for Le Pen or Dupont-Aignan.

Will he even give Sarkozy any boost in the polls? He's polling pretty far behind.

[redcommander]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

I hope this post will be quoted in your sig after may 6. If it's not, I'll take care of it.

Never doubt the incompetence of the PS. If they wanted to win, they should have nominated Montebourg not Hollande. Yes Hollande is still the favorite, but he is a much less appealing candidate.

[redcommander]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #44 - 5 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.7 / 0.4 / 0.1   

      

Hollande   29,82
Sarkozy   25,96
Le Pen   16,86
Bayrou   12,17
Mélenchon   8,50
Joly   2,96
Villepin   1,47
(Morin)   0,01
Lepage   0,55
Dupont-Aignan   0,71
(Boutin)   0,03
(Nihous)   0,10
Arthaud   0,44
Poutou   0,38   
Cheminade   0,05

Hollande   56,85
Sarkozy   43,15

Sarkozy has already lost. It's too late now for him to come back.

I'm not giving up yet.

[redcommander]

*please French People don't screw this up don't screw this up please French People*

Yes let's hope they don't elect Hollande. Why is Sarkozy closing the gap all of the sudden?

[redcommander]

Sarkozy will be re-elected.

I concur.

[redcommander]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #47 - 26 March 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   

      

Hollande   28,20
Sarkozy   27,69
Le Pen   15,69
Bayrou   12,49
Mélenchon   11,06
Joly   2,38
(Villepin)   0,47
(Lepage)   0,21
Dupont-Aignan   0,91
Arthaud   0,41
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,04


Hollande   55,04
Sarkozy   44,96


In 6 months, it'll be OK for Sarkozy: he'll be above 50

Don't give up!!!!! Sarkozy can still win.

[redcommander]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #48 - 2 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.6 / 0.2   

      

Hollande   27,43
Sarkozy   28,23
Le Pen   15,57
Bayrou   11,67
Mélenchon   12,62
Joly   2,34
(Villepin)   0,09
(Lepage)   0,05
Dupont-Aignan   0,92
Arthaud   0,49
Poutou   0,45
Cheminade   0,15


Hollande   54,23
Sarkozy   45,77

Cheminadementum !

More seriously, Sarkozy is ahead of Hollande for the first time in the history of this tracker... and Mélenchon is now in 4th position.

Fabulous!!!!! Now let's just hope Mélenchon is makes it to the second round, and Sarkozy will have cake walk.

[redcommander]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #49 - 9 April 2012   

The weighting is now diminishing each week as follows: 1 / 0.5   

      

Hollande   27,33
Sarkozy   28,39
Le Pen   15,31
Bayrou   10,86
Mélenchon   13,54
Joly   2,23
Dupont-Aignan   0,98
Arthaud   0,66
Poutou   0,63
Cheminade   0,08


Hollande   54,27
Sarkozy   45,73

Will Sarkozy get a poll boost from winning the first round?

[redcommander]

This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed.

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.