France 2012: the official thread

[Insula Dei]

I doubt that someone like Le Pen would ever be able to get anywhere near 23% in the US...

uhm... George Wallace carried the entire south,.....

[Insula Dei]

I was going to post about the PR and the UMP, but this seems less important now for whatever reason....

[Insula Dei]

On the other hand, it is the Post, and who is stupid enough to pull sh**t like that when you're in DSK's position?

[Insula Dei]

I still can't believe someone is capable of the sheer stupidity of raping a hotel maid when he's already a semi-certainty to be the next President of an actually important country like France. So, I'll continue to believe he didn't. (Also, he appearantly has an alibi for the time of the alledged assault now).

If DSK really did this, well,...

[Insula Dei]

The thing is, even if he's found completely not guilty, he's damaged good now. No coming back from this... no doubt the next round of polls will show Hollande ahead.

The consensus seems to be tha if he convincingly clears himself from this, it could actually boost his numbers. Either way, it's not like he'll even file to run.

[Insula Dei]

Imagining that he could flee is just ridiculous.

Sure...

He has money, he can flee if he wants.
Some people just don't want to go in jail.

It would make him definitely guilty and as popular as Hitler - yes, in France too. If he wants a future, he has no choice but staying.

If he is guilty, then he has no future anyway, but fleeing back to France could keep him out of jail.

True, but he probably would still face persecution over the other case?

[Insula Dei]

Actually the 'serial seducer' thing isn't necessarily sexist, it's just not in line with the ideal  heterosexual (though nowadays homosexual goes as well) , monogamous relationship as preached by bourgeois morality. It's certainly not something I frown upon.

On the whole France doesn't strike me as very 'sexist'. It's certainly less so than Italy or Spain. On the whole France is pretty much your archetypical Western European (Contintal) Liberal Democracy. (From now on I'll refer to these nations as WELDs)

[Insula Dei]

So we're struck with candidate (and if God wants President) Hollande. What a failure.

Wait, I thought you were a Hollande supporter?

[Insula Dei]

I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?

[Insula Dei]

I know you guys don't really want this in here, but can I say in relation to the DSK case, that the US practice of very heavy punishments for people who plea 'not guily' strikes me as a bit retarded and more or less likely to result in miscarriages of justice?

Well, no.

Not guilty leads to normal punishment.
If you plea "guilty", you usually have a deal with the Attorney, in which you plea guilty and the attorney is asking a more lenient sentence, because you cooperated.

In the attorney view, it is better to have no trial with a reduced punishment than than a lenghly and costly trial, which can be very difficult to witnesses, victims and their families and which can fail to convince the jury.

Well yeah, but US normal punishments are quite bad and the US doesn't seem to parole-happy. I believe DSK would risk 74 years if he was found guilty of all the charges brought against him. Over here 74 years wouldn't even be given for murder.

[Insula Dei]

CSA apparently has a poll out saying that 60% of French believe DSK was set up. Yeah, he definitely isn't a flight risk and definitely wouldn't be welcomed with open arms...

France most certainly wouldn't welcome DSK with open arms.

[Insula Dei]

I'm really tired these days.
On Saturday, I put salt in my yogurt.
And yesterday, I was about to put sugar on my meat...

LOL

Oh c'mon, it's not like most French people even remember who was this Schuman guy.

Except of course those living near the rather prominent Schuman Square in Brussels.

[Insula Dei]

I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She's an actual socialist.

[Insula Dei]

Only a 3 point advantage for Aubry with Montebourg voters? Seems unlikely.

Though perhaps those numbers may shift a lot when Montebourg announces his endorsement, uh, who he will vote for.

[Insula Dei]

I don't know why, but my gut tells me that Aubry will narrowly win this thing.

Which means that I'll vote Sarkozy on May 5.

HP.

[Insula Dei]

That is: Hollande is polling better. I don't knwo whether that's quite the same thing.

[Insula Dei]

The idea is, I suppose, that people who already like Aubry are unlikely to change their mind because they suddenly discover she's a 'horrible socialist' or something like that. Whereas a substantial part of the people who like Hollande might change their mind, as his campaign is more personalist and less ideolgical, making it relatively easier for him to implode as his campaign runs out of steam.

[Insula Dei]

Say, Antonio, fab, I gather that both of you have a certain degree of experience with Sciences Po, how tough is it to get in there. Is it as hard as getting in on the action in the ENS of the Rue d'Ulm, or is it more doable? What sort of tests do you have to get trough before they admit you? I'm fascinated by those Grandes Ecoles of yours, mainly because I think the concept is very laudable.

[Insula Dei]

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Oh no, I'm not, I'm perfectly content where I'm right now. I just find the whole idea quite fascinating. French higher education is very different from our own, more German model (even if the numerus clausus is almost entirely extinct here), and I like to have an idea of what other systems look like.

[Insula Dei]

I see than Aubry launched the "machine à perdre".

Which helps the right and is a very bad idea from her.
Does she want Hollande to lose, so she can run against Sarkozy in 2017?

This is one quote people. If she starts a bitchfest this monday, I'll be more than ready to condemn her along with some of you, but right now, she's still only a Margin of Error away from being the PS candidate for the presidency and not playing it very dirty, as far as I can tell.

[Insula Dei]

Oh well, Hollande does have the benefit of seeming like his vague, personalist way of doing politics might give us 2 terms in the Elysée, which is probably just as well as one really, really good term.

[Insula Dei]

Sorry guys, my life's real sh*** these days. Many, many professional and personal problems.
The tracker will be updated... soon.

So sorry to hear that.

[Insula Dei]

Any indicators on how last night's TV-appearance for Sarkozy went down?

[Insula Dei]

I love how just about everything sounds worse when you imagine it coming from Sarkozy's mouth.

[Insula Dei]

The Wall Street Journal calling Sarko 'Nicolas Le Pen' because of his immigration policy.

He also was attacked in the EP over those.