France 2012: the official thread

[RogueBeaver]

And here's one Twitter account that I won't be following: https://twitter.com/#!/NicolasSarkozy

Is he really using "A Strong France" as a slogan? Talk about original...

"My opponent has never run anything except his parliamentary office" would be another good slogan...

[RogueBeaver]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

[RogueBeaver]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

That's how Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the runoff a decade ago- by poaching PS voters. Immigration/cultural policy is one half, the bipartisan economic consensus on soft neoliberalism another. (Resident French, please correct me if I missed something here)

Peter: Internment camps where they would be held in between being rounded up and shipped back to Romania (which is Sarko's current policy, minus internment camps) and some sort of border controls. The latter of which could well violate EU open-borders agreements if implemented.

[RogueBeaver]

The runoff gap doesn't exceed 10 when the two major parties make the runoff, so no surprise there.

[RogueBeaver]

Can you post it in French?

[RogueBeaver]

To which Sarko should reply: "I'll take it as a compliment." Now if only he can bait Hollande into calling him a liberal... then he'd hit the rhetorical jackpot.

[RogueBeaver]

Economist editorial. Can't say I disagree with them, quite the opposite.

http://www.economist.com/node/21551461

[RogueBeaver]

@Hashemite: Interesting that the far-leftie does well with white collars, cops and military.

[RogueBeaver]

ABS sentiment is undoubtedly bubbling again.

[RogueBeaver]

Same here. Though on the flip side DSK might have been the one to push ahead with serious structural reforms. Schroder, not Kohl, did the heavy entitlement lifting in Germany. Jospin privatized more than any of his rightist predecessors ever did. Hollande isn't that sort, not by a mile.

[RogueBeaver]

Any French-language livestreams? (Links if possible)

[RogueBeaver]

France 24 I'm guessing.

Also, thanks for the link.

[RogueBeaver]

It isn't working for me- none of the streams posted here. Do they shut out North Americans?

[RogueBeaver]

The interruptions remind me of federal debates here in Canada.

More seriously, I don't see the needle moving. At least not yet.

[RogueBeaver]

Even if this is a mini-bump (which I won't believe until another poll backs it up) there isn't enough time when voting starts in under 3 days. Has France ever had a Dewey Defeats Truman moment? I'd be thrilled if Sarko pulls it out but will only believe it when I see it.

[RogueBeaver]

They should really pronounce it "perennial candidate"

[RogueBeaver]

I'll assume Hollande wins until the results tell us otherwise. Less than 2% margin if so.

[RogueBeaver]

When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?

Official exit polls at 8 (French Time) and results quickly after.

8 AM?

8 PM. So 2 PM Eastern.