France 2012: the official thread

[ZuWo]

Considering the details of the DSK case and the numerous allegations concerning DSK's behaviour towards women in the past, I find it very hard to believe that this guy is innocent. But then again, this is just my opinion which, although it seems to be supported by the facts, I cannot prove. However, I regard the existing conspiracy theories about DSK's arrest as pathetic. How smart is it to believe in mere speculation about a possible complot that no one can prove when, on the other hand, there is evidence that DSK is simply a criminal, disgusting old man?

[ZuWo]

Even if DSK is found innocent in the NY incident, isn't there the allegation that he assaulted a French journalist in a sexual way? So if he returns to the political stage, there obiously still exists a chance for his opponents to bring him down. That's why, although I must say I'm far from being an expert in French politics, I'd argue there's a long way to go for DSK to become a real contender for the nomination again.

[ZuWo]

Is there a reason for Sarkozy's rise in the latest poll (e.g. positive news about the President, negative news surrounding the Socialists), or should that poll be regarded as completely strange?

[ZuWo]

Turnout seems pretty impressive. This shows that left voters are very motivated to vote in the presidential elections - not a good sign for Sarkozy, no matter who the nominee will be.

[ZuWo]

I'm certainly not adding anything new to the discussion, but these numbers look awful for Sarkozy. It seems Sarkozy needs a DSK-esque scandal by Hollande two weeks before the election in spring to win ...

[ZuWo]

I've read that the polls after the debate showed that while Hollande was considered slightly more convincing than Sarkozy in the presidential debate overall, a majority of Bayrou and Le Pen voters thought Sarkozy did better on that front. This may explain why Sarkozy appears to be gaining votes both among Bayrou and Le Pen voters.

[ZuWo]

Spoiler alert! Do not click if you want to wait for official numbers!!!

http://www.tdg.ch/monde/francois-hollande-obtiendrait-53-suffrages-nicolas-sarkozy/story/15086944