France 2012: the official thread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If the PS manages to lose yet again, I think it's time for them to disband and let another party take up the left-wing mantle. This is ridiculous.

This.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I hope Hollande wins, given Sarkozy's a creep and turning France into the next Italy might finally achieve some success in discrediting leftist economics over there.

Hollande probably won't govern particularly from the left. I can't imagine him being in any sort of position to unyoke the Franco-German arrangement.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why do I think Hollande's laughable attempt to poach FN voters with that "intern the Roma" crap will backfire horribly on him?

Why does Hollande think he needs to poach FN voters? Can't the FN doing very well in the first round only benefit him?

That's how Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the runoff a decade ago- by poaching PS voters. Immigration/cultural policy is one half, the bipartisan economic consensus on soft neoliberalism another. (Resident French, please correct me if I missed something here)

So the concern is that FN would actually take more from PS than from UMP, even though a few polls from a while back were showing Marine edging Sarko into the runoff and then getting crushed by Hollande?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

France is, politically, an absolutely horrible country, but I still doubt they'll reelect Sarkozy.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This is Sarkozy after/during a surge, and I highly doubt he'll be able to sustain that for the next month.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If he doesn't get enough FN support any help with the center might not end up mattering much.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Will you get mad if people make fun of you on May 6th?

I'm confused. Now we make fun of people when their predictions are correct?

For those that make fun of me either way for political predictions, I think they need to seek out The Professor for advice in certain areas.

Hey if you made a thoughtful prediction backed up by some evidence of thought.....

"Thoughtful prediction": "OBVIOUSLY HOLLANDE BY SIX TO EIGHT POINTS. SARKOZY IS DONE! ALLEZ FRANCOIS!"

The thing is, content-wise, that actually is thoughtful in that it's based on evidence and facts, although four to six is looking more likely now.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

When, exactly, are the results supposed to start?