France 2012: the official thread

[HST1948]

I really hate to ask such a seemingly simple question, but I just started following this thread and really don't have an opinion of any of the candidates (Aubry, Hollande, or Sarkozy for that matter).  But is Sarkozy really in as much trouble as the polls seem to suggest, and if so who is the stronger candidate in your opinions to beat him (Aubry or Hollande)?

[HST1948]

I really hate to ask such a seemingly simple question, but I just started following this thread and really don't have an opinion of any of the candidates (Aubry, Hollande, or Sarkozy for that matter).  But is Sarkozy really in as much trouble as the polls seem to suggest, and if so who is the stronger candidate in you opinions to beat him (Aubry or Hollande)?

Yes, he is and Hollande.

Thank you so much!

[HST1948]

That is: Hollande is polling better. I don't knwo whether that's quite the same thing.

Well, someone mentioned a couple pages previously that they thought Aubry's lead, although smaller, was "more stable" than Hollande's. I was just wondering if anyone else thought that this was the case and if so why that is?

[HST1948]

Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.

Imagine if François actually won 58-42 though... We can dream.

CSA does seem like it is an outlier, but CSA and some other polls that I have seen seem to have shown a slight trend back to Hollande over the last week or so.  Is this real, or just something that I am reading too far into. If it is real, what is its cause (could it be the video of the video of video conferance between Sarko and Obama?).  I've try to keep up with that polls and analysis by reading http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/, but alas by French is lacking, and translators can only do so much. I apologize for my lack of knowledge, but am interested in hearing what everyone has to say.