France 2012: the official thread

[Math]

A new phone poll made by TNS-Sofres (18-19 Feb., sample 1000):

Marine is also surging here, and there is an interesting hypothesis with Montebourg, who would be, unsurprisingly, crushed by Le Pen.

Arthaud 0,5 % (-0,5)
Besancenot 7 % (+0,5)
Mélenchon 7 % (+1)
Aubry 24 %/56 % (+1/+1)
Joly 6 % (-2)
Bayrou 5 % (-2)
Borloo 4,5 % (-2)
Villepin 4,5 % (+0,5)
Sarkozy 24/44 % (-1/-1)
Le Pen 17,5 % (+4,5)

Turnout : 77 %

Arthaud 1 % (=)
Besancenot 8 % (+1,5)
Mélenchon 7,5 % (+0,5)
Royal 19 %/52 % (+2/=)
Joly 8 % (-1)
Bayrou 5 % (-2)
Borloo 4,5 % (-3,5)
Villepin 5 % (+1)
Sarkozy 24/48 % (-2/=)
Le Pen 17,5 % (+3,5)

Turnout : 75 %

Arthaud 1 % (=)
Besancenot 8 % (+1)
Mélenchon 7,5 % (+0,5)
Hollande 22 %/56 % (+5,5/+1)
Joly 6,5 % (-1,5)
Bayrou 5 % (-3)
Borloo 4 % (-4,5)
Villepin 5 % (=)
Sarkozy 23/44 % (-2,5/-1)
Le Pen 18,5 % (+4,5)

Turnout : 76 %

Arthaud 1 % (-0,5)
Besancenot 7 % (+0,5)
Mélenchon 6,5 % (+0,5)
Strauss-Kahn 29 %/63 % (+2/+1)
Joly 6,5 % (-0,5)
Bayrou 5 % (-1)
Borloo 4 % (-1)
Villepin 3,5 % (-0,5)
Sarkozy 21/37 % (-3/-1)
Le Pen 17 % (+3,5)

Turnout : 80 %

Arthaud 1 %
Besancenot 8 %
Mélenchon 7,5 %
Montebourg 15 %
Joly 8 %
Bayrou 6 %
Borloo 5 %
Villepin 5,5 %
Sarkozy 25 %
Le Pen 19 %

Turnout : 72 %

[Math]

Since it is not totally unrelated to this "poll", the CREDOC just released an interesting paper about bias in online polls (in French, btw).

[Math]

The PS has to keep on this double negative momentum for Sarkozy, who is eaten from the right and from the centre and the centre-right.
Whatever he says or does, he loses on the far-right or on the centre-right. This is avicious circle only DSK is able to feed.

I agree with the general idea but I fail to see why only DSK would be able to benefit from this phenomenon since it's seems to be a structural trend since 2007. Sarkozy was elected despite losing some centre and centre-right voters just because his successful offensive againt Le Pen more than made up for these losses. But since then, the shift of the centrist voters towards the left has continued (Bayrou has been utterly unable to keep them, and a majority of them voted for EELV in 2009 and 2010) and the revival of the FN, which was pretty clear during the régionales elections is now self-evident...

It puts Sarkozy and his majority under pressure on two fronts, and their reaction since last summer, marked by a radicalization of the UMP's view on immigration and crime was an evidence they quickly understood the danger. But it's a lose-lose situation since it is incompatible with regaigning the centrist electorate, which is leaning strongly towards the left on these cultural issues.

Basically, I'm pretty sure Sarkozy will lose badly in 2012 (very badly if he moves to the centre since he will have to compete against the socialist candidate, probably less badly if he continues this far right drift and is qualified for the runoff), and I fail to see how he could have avoided this situation since it was written on his 2007 electoral strategy.

[Math]

- Because DSK is moderate enough to grasp directly centre-right voters, "real" former UDF (don't make a confusion with Bayrou and the MoDem: they weren't and aren't the real UDF).

These centre-right voters voted for Sarkozy in 2007. Not all of them but a big slice.
Now, they have entirely fled Sarkozy.

Well, if you're talking about the parties I can’t more agree with you but concerning the voters, if you have a look at the election results, I fail to see were the MoDem and even some Green voters come from if not from the right.

And no matter of the socialist candidate (Ségolène is certainly a little bit different...), I just can't imagine the centre and centre-right voters choosing Sarkozy in the same proportion than in 2007 since he moves so far on the right, and I think those FN voters who voted for him in the first round will not be fooled two times in a row since Sarkozy is politically unable to deliver the Nazi policies they want.

[Math]

Isn't there a lasting little momentum towards Hollande ?
He may really finished as ideally positioned if Aubry isn't a candidate...

In the last TNS Sofres barometer, he is up by 6 points at 40% and tied with DSK among left-wing supporters (60%), but Aubry is still a little ahead (65%). What is impressive is how he managed to leave the 25%-30% area in the last few months.

[Math]

A new phone poll made by TNS-Sofres (20-21 May, sample 1013 registered voters):

Hollande is on the rise, mostly at the expense of the far-left candidates. In the only hypothesis it is possible to compare with the previous wave, Mélenchon seems to be hurt by Hollande. It’s also fascinating to imagine where the former Besancenot voters are going, now he is replaced by Myriam Martin, at last in this poll (it will be interesting to follow the race for the last spot between her and Arthaud). And Joly is basically tied with Hulot.   

For the second round, TNS has basically the same results as BVA for Hulot and Bayrou voters, but those who voted first for Borloo or Le Pen tend to vote a little more for Sarkozy in the 2nd round.

With Hollande and Joly

Arthaud 1 % (=)
Myriam Martin < 0,5 % (- <7,5)
Mélenchon 3 % (-4)
Hollande 28 %/58 % (+6/+2)
Joly 7 % (+0,5)
Bayrou 5,5 % (+0,5)
Borloo 8 % (+4)
Villepin 3,5 % (-1,5)
Sarkozy 24/42 % (+1/-2)
Le Pen 20 % (+1,5)

Turnout : 87 %

With Hollande and Hulot

Arthaud 1 %
Martin < 0,5 %
Mélenchon 3,5 %
Hollande 31 %/58 % (+2)
Hulot 8 %
Bayrou 5,5 %
Borloo 7 %
Villepin 3 %
Sarkozy 22/42 % (-2)
Le Pen 19 %

Turnout : 87 %

With Aubry and Hulot

Arthaud 1 %
Martin < 0,5 %
Mélenchon 4 %
Aubry 28 %/56 % (=)
Hulot 9 %
Bayrou 5 %
Borloo 7 %
Villepin 3 %
Sarkozy 24/44 % (=)
Le Pen 19 %

Turnout : 87 %

With Royal and Hulot

Arthaud 1 %
Martin < 0,5 %
Mélenchon 7 %
Royal 18 %
Hulot 10,5 %
Bayrou 7 %
Borloo 9 %
Villepin 3,5 %
Sarkozy 24%
Le Pen 20 %

Turnout : 85 %

With Delanoë and Hulot

Arthaud 1 %
Martin < 0,5 %
Mélenchon 5,5 %
Delanoë 17,5 %
Hulot 12 %
Bayrou 6 %
Borloo 9,5 %
Villepin 3,5 %
Sarkozy 24,5%
Le Pen 20,5 %
 
Turnout : 84 %

With Fabius and Hulot

Arthaud 1 %
Martin < 0,5 %
Mélenchon 6 %
Fabius 15 %
Hulot 11 %
Bayrou 8 %
Borloo 9,5 %
Villepin 4 %
Sarkozy 24,5%
Le Pen 20,5 %

Turnout : 84 %

[Math]

No new poll, again ?

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week !

Don't worry, there will be one from CSA and one from Ipsos by the end of the week.

[Math]

No new poll, again ?

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week !

Don't worry, there will be one from CSA and one from Ipsos by the end of the week.

Seems I was right.

A new poll made by Ipsos (June 18-19th, sample 965 registered voters):

No second rounds tested.


With Hollande

Arthaud 1,5 % (-0,5)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 7 % (+3)
Hollande 32 % (+4)
Hulot 7,5 % (-3,5)
Bayrou 5 % (=)
Borloo 7 % (-2)
Villepin 3 % (=)
Sarkozy 19 % (=)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 17 % (=)

Turnout : 89 %


With Aubry 

Arthaud 1 % (=)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 7 % (+3)
Aubry 30 % (+3)
Hulot 7 % (-4)
Bayrou 5 % (=)
Borloo 8 % (=)
Villepin 4 % (=)
Sarkozy 19 % (-2)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 18 % (+1)

Turnout : 88 %


With Royal 

Arthaud 2 % (=)
NPA candidate 1 % (+ 0,5)
Mélenchon 9,5 % (+3,5)
Royal 19 % (+3)
Hulot 8,5 % (-4,5)
Bayrou 7 % (=)
Borloo 11% (-1)
Villepin 4,5 % (-1,5)
Sarkozy 19 % (=)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 18 % (=)

Turnout : 86 %

[Math]

Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

Well, it was first supposed to be published today, but it will be tomorrow. And I clearly think these DSK numbers for Hollande and Aubry will be the standards in the next months polls: people don't really vote for a socialist candidate, but mainly against Sarkozy.

[Math]

A new Ifop poll (June 21-23rd, sample 937 registered voters):

No real changes since the last wave, but it's interesting to see Joly and Hulot are exactly at the same level, contrary to the above CSA poll. 


With Hollande / Joly

Arthaud 0,5 %
NPA candidate 0,5 %
Mélenchon 7 %
Chevènement 1 %
Hollande 26 %
Joly 6,5 %
Bayrou 6 %
Borloo 7,5 %
Villepin 3 %
Sarkozy 21 %
Dupont Aignan 0,5 %
Le Pen 20,5 % 


With Hollande / Hulot

Arthaud 0,5 % (=)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 6,5 % (+0,5)
Chevènement 1,5 % (=)
Hollande 26,5 %  (+0,5)
Hulot 6,5 % (+0,5)
Bayrou 6 % (-1)
Borloo 7 % (+1)
Villepin 3 % (=)
Sarkozy 21 % (-1)
Dupont Aignan 0 % (-0,5)
Le Pen 21 % (=)

[Math]

BTW, math, we are all glad to have polls very early, but isn't there a problem to publish them here while they are under embargo, as it seems the case with the recent IPSOS and IFOP ones ?

Well, I know, this website is quite confidential, all the more in France
And it's an American website, so, French laws doesn't apply.
Maybe it's more a business problem than a legal one and, well, it's up to you, as you are an insider, you knwo better .

As Dave isn't here very often (and doesn't bother to read obscure threads ), I wondered just because I know he had already some problems for some stuff unduly published here.

Well, you're right concerning the IPSOS poll, I should have been more cautious even if they changed the due date at the last minute. But I'm sure this Ifop survey was not under embargo when I posted it, even if I still cannot find any mention of it on the web (as you I guess). Bad marketing service probably... All these game changer polls drive me wild

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays .
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful.

It's not that laughable if they're talking about the potential voters of these candidates instead of their own political positions IMO. When the pollsters ask interviewees to place themselves on a left-right scale, Borloo, Villepin and Hulot or Joly supporters are disproportionately on the central position.

[Math]

BREAKING in the Green primary:

Eva Joly is "ahead" (no number for the moment) in "paper" votes (2000 counted out of around 10000; 15000 votes are electronic ones).

They say 55% for Joly and only 35% for Hulot (still with 2000 ballots), which is really cool IMO.

[Math]

If it's Joly, it's another good news for socialists.
She'll self-destruct the Greens and won't steal many votes. For the negotiations for seats in parliamentarian elections, this is fine for the PS...
And she'll fire at Sarkozy all the time.

I believe her more ethical than economic agenda will made her very capable to attract all these young urban professional voters who contributed to the successes of EELV in the last European, regional and cantonal elections (see Nantes, Toulouse, Rennes, Lyon, Paris, Grenoble, Angers, Bordeaux, Caen during the cantonal). Sure this is not a very numerous group, but at the end of the day this is one that will more surely solidify around EELV than all those very diverse potential Hulot voters who will go back to where they came from after he lost/withdraw.

[Math]

Eva Joly : 49,75%
Nicolas Hulot : 40,22%
Henri Stoll : 5,02%
Stéphane Lhomme : 4,64%

She missed it by 60 votes...

[Math]

I'll be voting for Moscovici in the 1st round if he runs, but I doubt he will. He knows he can't win.

Well, it seems he just endorsed Hollande.

[Math]

I really hope we'll have other polls before the summer recess, because, otherwise, LH2 will weigh more and more in this tracker until late August...

At last one poll will be released tomorrow or the day after, but it's from BVA, so I don't know if this is exactly a good news.

And there is this one from Ifop (due at 18:00 CEST so this time all is perfectly legal ) :

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 30 June-8 July 2011, sample 570 self-declared socialists among 1053 self-declared leftists (btw I don't know how it is possible to find 1053 leftists
among the 1970 people interviewed, but...).

among leftist / among socialists
Aubry 40 (+6) / 41 (+7)
Hollande 38 (+1) / 42 (-1)
Royal 11 (-2) / 9 (-2)
Valls 5 (=) / 4 (=)
Montebourg 4 (=) / 3 (=)
another one - (-1) / - (-1)
none of them 2 (-3) / 1 (-2)
don't know - (-1) / - (-1)

Second round

Hollande 50 (-3) / 53 (-5)
Aubry 50 (+3) / 47 (+5)

It seems all the undecided are trending to Aubry, so it will be a little harder for Hollande to come back. In the first wave (June 30-July 1st) Aubry is way ahead, and in the second (July 7-8) Hollande is back, and strongly back. I don't know if this is an effect of the catastrophic Aubry launching or statistical noise, but since the two samples are about 500 people each, I think this is worth to notice.

[Math]

Meh, until now I've heard neither about Aubry's rumours nor about Hollande's. OK, I barely listen France Inter once every 3 days, but I don't think it monopolizes attention as much.

That's why I think Aubry is overreacting and it may backfire as some people may well search on the Internet, while they weren't aware of this sh** or they didn't bother.
And she clearly uses this, not exactly against the right as everybody says, but to be at the center of the socialist stage again...

It seems that the far-right has launched rumours on her husband being the lawyer of "salafists", on her having a cancer when she punched her own eye, on her being a lesbian (just based on her look I think...).
There is also another rumour which is based on evidence from civil servants who worked in Lille about her addiction to alcohol, probably when she lost the legislative election in 2002. The rest is just usual rumours, this is the only one which can retain the eye: but it may well be a positive rumour if many people find her more humane as she may have had the same problems as them...

The rumour I find the most hilarious is the one concerning the nickname Sarkozy is supposed to give to Aubry and her husband, 'Martin et Martine", based on a medieval legend including a Moor in the north of France IIUC. Nobody knows about this legend (and certainly not Sarkozy), and I can't believe one second the UMP people are dumb enough to try this way to link Aubry to Muslims. This is too shrewd (1) for them and (2) to work.

[Math]

Mitterrand was actually popular by 1988 (not in 1986, though) and Chirac had decent approvals in 2002. Neither of them had approvals in the low 30s.

Well, according to this graph based on TNS Sofres data, Mitterrand and Chirac were respectively at 57% and 45% in the month of July before the election. Even VGE was above 50%. Sarkozy approval is at 25%.  As Raffarin would say : "La pente est forte".

[Math]

It will be atrocious to wait until September...

It seems Ifop will release a poll next tuesday, but I don't know if it will concern the primaries or the presidential election itself.

[Math]

We have still 5 polls in our database, but in 2 weeks, we'll have only one .

Yeah, potentially, there will be one week with only one poll... sigh...
(but no risk to have zero poll, as pollsters will be back to business just before September I think)

Don't worry, one poll will be published next Thursday. Not from the best pollster, but...

[Math]

So this is not an actual presidential poll, merely some weird and not particularly useful questions.

Don't worry,your long-awaited presidential poll is slowly coming. Thursday I think. And there will be some other primary polls this week, hope they will be more interesting than the Viavoice stuff.

[Math]

Please forgive my lateness, but now I'm back at work in Sciences Po, so it's harder to find enough time to update the trackers.

Hope you took the US elections and political behavior class ;-)

[Math]

I might be a hack, but so far Aubry was clearly the best in this initial sequence. She had a clear speech, talked about issues and not about vague terms, called out Sarkozy and made sense.

Well, you're not a hack, just partisan ;-)
I support Hollande and I really believe he is way much stronger so far.

[Math]

She has been like Martine Aubry: serious, clear, knowledgeable, but not very exciting. And the way she talks, with all these hackneyed expressions, exactly the way we can expect from an énarque, it really bores me.

[Math]

Some others results below. Nothing really surprising, but the "most leftist"/"most rightist" are funny, though. And Baylet is surprisingly high in the whole poll, of course.