France 2012: the official thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are certain similarities, but would you think of making the comparison if they weren't both women? Because the differences are rather large as well; Royal was an established (and ultimately establishment) politician for decades before her run in 2007.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gremetz for President!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No trolling please. Everyone play nice. Diolch, diolch.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, this is inconvenient. For me, that is. Because I moved to a new flat last week and my internet access is... er... patchy (and will be for about a month). Which is less than great when this sort of thing happens, for the usual reasons.

So.

Please behave yourselves and all that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Back online for a brief period (maybe). Has this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13411463) been posted yet?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, I think Gustaf has a point. I can understand that it might be an uncomfortable one and it could do with a few additional caveats, but there's a fundamental truth there, like it or not. Roman Polanski did something far worse than anything DSK has been accused of, after all.

To make some related points...

1. The essentially deferential (certainly from a British point of view) that the French media takes towards the private lives of powerful men in France means this sort of thing should not, perhaps, come as a total shock. Why? Because if you know that you can do (almost) anything that you want and get away with it, then there's a good chance that you will. Of course some powerful men will act terribly in their private lives regardless of the threat level, but the line is in a different place.

2. I think I read somewhere that this was a $3,000-a-night suite. First off, that's insane. Secondly... well... there is a certain sort of man who would probably consider that a right to mess with female staff members comes with the a price tag that absurd.

3. It's actually quite unusual for women to make up stories like this about powerful men. Now that goes against what we assume, but it's where the evidence is. For what that's worth.

4. Although DSK seems like a big loss politically speaking, he probably isn't. Why? Because if he is capable of errors in judgment on this titanic scale in his private life (and no matter whether the charges are true - though they probably are - he has certainly made huge errors of judgment along the way) then he would probably have found a way of cocking up the election anyway. He was probably never the candidate that everyone assumed that he was. Maybe the PS - and those of us who hope to see Sarkozy defeated - have been spared.

5. I don't think all attention should be in this thread; DSK was the head of the IMF as well. At the very least there ought to be something on the economics board (perhaps there is - I've not checked).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Third, the idea that this news story is only deserving of being reported within the elections thread of a separate board is a determination only worthy of fascists, sexual deviants and perverts, much like DSK.

I'd rather not have the more lurid details cluttering up this board too much, so... you know...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, sir, though it was by referring to a French media. Sorry.

No need for apologies; I hadn't actually read through the thread at the time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously we don't know all of the facts, but before people board the train to Conspiracy Theory Central (change at Crewe), some points to remember:

1. That DSK has what might be called a somewhat predatory attitude to women is well known and, lo, there have now been other accusations.

2. It is - as noted already - very unusual for women to make up this sort of thing about powerful men. That might seem counter-intuitive, but that's the direction in which the evidence stacks up.

3. If this is the work of some conspiracy somewhere, it is a remarkably competent and efficient one. It is not easy to make up credible charges involving sexual violence. And these are credible charges, no matter how this ends.

Even if there are technicalities that let him off, even if it was the work of a conspiracy after all, this all looks really bad. I agree that it does seem magnificently fortunate for Sarkozy and it is certainly an extraordinary story, but you should never underestimate human stupidity. Or forget that the only people who act in a perfectly rational (from their point of view) manner at all times are often given a label that begins with 's' and ends with 'path'.

That's all for now. Please keep matters civilised here; I'm not online as much as I'd like right now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nobody so far has pointed out the horrendous brutality of the way he was treated by the American authorities.

He's been treated no differently to any other suspect in a sex offence case... actually, that's not true. Some poor black teenager from the projects would certainly be treated in a far more 'brutal' manner in a case with charges like this one. Someone on the news this morning mentioned that while he's in Rikers Island, he's being kept on his own. Most inmates there aren't so lucky.

Basically this side of things is a typical cultural disconnect. In America it is normal to parade suspects in front of cameras in their cuffs; that this has happened to DSK is not evidence of unusually brutal treatment or of an attempt to humiliate France. Americans are a theatrical people, that's all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maybe, but it's still something extremely humiliating to do to someone who is still presumed innocent. In France, it is actually illegal, fortunately.

That is exactly what I meant by a 'cultural disconnect'. The American legal system and its traditions happens to be very, very different from the French legal system; these differences are just that (differences and traditions) rather than a calculated snub of any kind.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bail? Because obvious flight risk is obvious.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Isn't that the point of equality before the law?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Don't understand this position; could you elaborate?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's a good one. He was as likely to flee as I am to become the Pope.

Congratulations your holiness.

Again, I don't understand your position at all... he's not an American citizen, he was apprehended on a plane as it was about to take off, he is not a native English speaker and risks spending a considerable amount of time in an American prison, he had previously lived the high life for decades and risks spending a considerable amount of time in prison... and so on and so forth. If such a person is not a flight risk, then who is?

I think I should make it clear that I had nothing against DSK up until this point; he was actually my preferred candidate to take on Sarkozy on the totally cynical basis that he seemed to be (by far!) the strongest possibility to get him out.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Or because they were worried that he'd pull a Polanski.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How is being treated - more or less - in the way that any other suspect in this sort of case would be treated anything other than an example of equality before the law?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No one in America knows who DSK is. But I suppose he is clearly the real victim here, not the person he (may have) attacked or the other people that he (may have) attacked over the years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

His defence team seems to be gearing up to argue that it was consensual. So, yeah; he's guilty. The only question now being whether his lawyers can smear the victim enough to get him off regardless, something that is not exactly unknown in rape trials.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There will always be a party in France that is rooted in a left-wing interpretation of France's Republican traditions and has few organic links to traditional working class politics outside a couple of random areas here and there, but which is nonetheless a member of the SI and which combines unusually radical rhetoric for an SI party with very timid policies (though which will occasionally implement something very radical; but, alas, that policy will either be disastrous or will not work towards its intended goal). And now that Communism is dead as a political movement, it will always be the largest party on the Left by default. It is impossible to imagine French politics (or even France) without it. Does it matter whether it's called SFIO, PS or something else? Hollande is just being over-dramatic because he's taken a hit recently.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fab is right, established parties rarely die out in the French political system. There will always be a support for one of the two big one by people who fear the other could win. Add to that the fact that, after being in opposition for 10 year, the PS dominates as never before the sub-national entities (holding nearly every big city, over 60/100 departements and 21/22 regions ; hell, it might even take the Senate, for the first time ever !).

Yeah, it's become a local government party again. Except that local government in France actually has a few teeth now and there isn't a large rival local government party on the Left these days.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quite so. We could do without that kind of post here, frankly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just a couple of posts have been deleted and a few more modified (mainly to remove quotes). It would be for the best if this particular discussed ceased, I think. Will also note that Umengus's deleted post included a vehement denial of sympathy with Breivik. Seems fair to let that point stand for the record.

---

Moving on now...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The stronger of the two candidates, so the better of the two possible results, even if... yeah.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Oh Lord, what now? Details?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does the new prostitution scandal which is perhaps related to DSK will hurt PS?

Oh Lord, what now? Details?

A complicated thing about the Carlton Hotel in Lille.
A prostitution ring. They suspect Lille police chief to be one of ring leaders and DSK to be a customer.

They were offering soirees for free to DSK, paid by the police leader and businessmen. Some of those businessmen often went in Washington to meet with him.

A mix of prostitution, corrupt policemen and influence trafic.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jsLYX_4YnJ1qVXpL7MyGz4FsXGVg?docId=CNG.de80727976bb112284b8f6a2d4707c0c.281

That's so sordid that it's almost impressive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a general rule there aren't polls of the parliamentary elections until after the Presidential one. Because there's no point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

Well, they've had it before.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Must we put up with a surge of militant tepidity at every Presidential election from 2007 onwards?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's why I added 'militant'. He aggressively favours warm ice cream.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What do (inaccurate as it happens, but that's not the issue) bourgeois assumptions about the solidity of working class support for the SPD a century ago have to do with the sociology of the PS vote of today? Support for the PS is not as closely linked to class (or to other socioeconomic factors) as most other (Western/Northern) European social democratic parties for historical reasons - not only do you have the old Catholic/Anti-Clerical divide (which worked against the formation of 'normal' class politics), but the socialist party that was embedded in working class communities was the Commies and not SFIO - and that has certainly been electorally unhelpful at times, sure. But that's not news and has nothing to do with the current crisis.