WV special election: October 4, 2011 (Primary on May 14)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The filing deadline was Friday... The list of primary candidates is long. (The important names are Earl Ray Tomblin, Natalie Tennant, and Betty Ireland.)

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

It would be interesting to see how somebody like Tennant would do if she got through the primary.

[Meeker]

Any indications as to how this race is going?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If the money race is any indication, this won't be at all competitive. Earl Ray Tomblin, Rick Thompson, and John Perdue all raised big bucks, while the theoretical Republican frontrunner, Betty Ireland, only raised $79,000, and was actually outraised by one of the other Republicans running, a businessman type named Bill Maloney.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Prediction: Thompson will surprise everyone and beat Tomblin. He has the institutional support of nearly all of the unions (AFL-CIO, teacher's union and united mine workers) and is running as a good folksy candidate for West Virginia. He has the momentum.

With Natalie Tennant running a very lackluster campaign, I expect Thompson to eat into her support among state workers and liberals in Charleston.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think Tomblin will win with around 35% of the vote; Thompson might pull in some of the wavering anti-Tomblin votes from the other candidates, but I doubt he can make up a double-digit deficit.

For the Republicans, I think Maloney will win in an upset.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's the link for the AP's results page. Polls close at 7:30 Eastern (3.5 hours from now).

[Napoleon]

I was rooting for Tennant but I never had much faith. :0

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Polls close in 10 minutes; here's the SOS site. I don't know which will be faster.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

First handful of precincts in, Tomblin leads Tennant 42-22, while Maloney leads Ireland 49-41.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Prediction: Thompson will surprise everyone and beat Tomblin. He has the institutional support of nearly all of the unions (AFL-CIO, teacher's union and united mine workers) and is running as a good folksy candidate for West Virginia. He has the momentum.

With Natalie Tennant running a very lackluster campaign, I expect Thompson to eat into her support among state workers and liberals in Charleston.

So much for that prediction, I wasn't expecting the mining counties to split the vote between Perdue, Thompson and Tomblin.

[Meeker]

I think Ireland is screwed.

[CatoMinor]

Why? right now its only like a 300ish vote gap, a bit early to be calling her screwed.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

About 10% in, and Tomblin leads Tennant and Thompson by a 44-18-18 margin. Maloney retains a 44-40 lead over Ireland.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Now around 1/4th in, Tomblin leads Thompson 42-21. Maloney ahead 45-34.

[Meeker]

Tomblin has this in the bag. Thompson and Tennant are just fighting it out for the right to run against him next year (if either of them choose to).

Ireland is still screwed.

[Rowan]

AP calls it for Tomblin.

Not seeing how Ireland wins.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Tomblin has this in the bag. Thompson and Tennant are just fighting it out for the right to run against him next year (if either of them choose to).

Ireland is still screwed.

Tennant would probably not give up her Secretary of State post for what appears to be a doomed challenge.

[Meeker]

Tomblin has this in the bag. Thompson and Tennant are just fighting it out for the right to run against him next year (if either of them choose to).

Ireland is still screwed.

Tennant would probably not give up her Secretary of State post for what appears to be a doomed challenge.

Yeah, Tennant probably wouldn't. Thompson may be more inclined though.

[Meeker]

Maloney is approaching 50%.

[Meeker]

AP calls it for Maloney.

Teabaggers take their first head of the 2012 cycle.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A tentative map of the primary results:



Pretty obvious where most of the candidates are from, except John Perdue (from Boone County, resides in Charleston) randomly won some counties in the eastern panhandle, probably because nobody bothered to advertise there (Pendleton County is in the Harrisonburg, Virginia media market, and everything northeast of there is in the Washington DC market).

[redcommander]

Damn it, Ireland was the Republicans only shot at making the race competitive. So I guess it's another four years of Democrats in control in Charleston.

[Tender Branson]

Good call by PPP, which caught the late Maloney rise.

(He just pulled further ahead in the final days.)

[Tender Branson]

Final Democratic Results:

  51,220     40.37%     Earl Ray Tomblin
  30,596     24.11%     Rick Thompson                   
  21,956     17.30%     Natalie E. Tennant           
  15,914     12.54%     John D. Perdue                   
    6,721       5.30%     Jeffrey V. Kessler           
       481       0.38%     Arne Moltis                       

126,888    100.00%    Total Votes                     

Final Republican Results:

  27,575      45.11%     Bill Maloney                 
  18,898      30.91%     Betty Ireland                 
    5,857        9.58%     Clark Barnes                   
    2,956        4.84%     Mark A. Sorsaia           
    2,378        3.89%     Larry V. Faircloth           
    2,046        3.35%     Mitch B. Carmichael           
    1,147        1.88%     Ralph William Clark           
       277        0.45%     Cliff Ellis                               

 61,134    100.00%    Total Votes  

...

67.5% of primary voters voted in the DEM primary, while 32.5% voted in the GOP primary.

http://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/results/statesummary.aspx