US House Redistricting: Connecticut

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, if we can have a thread about Idaho...

The only problem here is redistricting apparently requires a 2/3rds vote to pass, so the Republicans will probably block any attempt to make CT-05 any less Democratic. Regardless, he's a map I came up with to make the state pretty solidly 5-0.



Adds Bristol, Southington, Berlin, and Wallingford to CT-05 and cuts out some Republican towns on the edges. Also helps out CT-04 some by adding Ansonia, Derby, and Stratford and chopping off the top of the district. CT-01 and 03 take the Republican territory shed by CT-04 and CT-05 but should remain solidly Democratic. Chris Murphy is drawn out of CT-05 but since he's probably going to run for the Senate, that shouldn't matter. CT-02 is virtually unchanged.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a map that preserves the status quo. As a bonus, I avoided splitting any municipalities (deviations are 151, -684, -697, 1,500, and -268).



According to my calculations, the 2-party vote from 2008 and 2010 is:

CT-01 - 68-32 Obama, 61-39 Blumenthal
CT-02 - 61-39 Obama, 57-43 Blumenthal
CT-03 - 61-39 Obama, 59-41 Blumenthal
CT-04 - 61-39 Obama, 53-47 Blumenthal
CT-05 - 56-44 Obama, 50-50 McMahon (50.35% McMahon, to be precise)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's going to the courts anyway.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The existing map, which the Democratic map is based on, was a bipartisan agreement, not a Democratic gerrymander. It's almost impossible for one party to gerrymander Connecticut since a 2/3ds majority is required to pass a map. And it's not the Democrats' fault the Republicans are slipping in western Connecticut.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The proposed map:



Edit: Minimal changes to the contentious districts: adds a bit more of Torrington to CT-05, adds more of Shelton to CT-04.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

With partisan data, it's gerrymander time.

First, for the Dems:



CT-01 - 64.6 Obama, 34.1 McCain
CT-02 - 59.6 Obama, 39.0 McCain
CT-03 - 60.0 Obama, 38.9 McCain
CT-04 - 60.3 Obama, 39.0 McCain
CT-05 - 58.6 Obama, 40.1 McCain

Now, for the Republicans:



CT-01 - 68.4 Obama, 30.4 McCain
CT-02 - 58.6 Obama, 40.0 McCain
CT-03 - 69.6 Obama, 29.3 McCain
CT-04 - 55.2 Obama, 44.0 McCain
CT-05 - 53.3 Obama, 45.3 McCain