UT-Dan Jones: Gov. Herbert (R) leads Matheson (D) by 10
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:22:59 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  UT-Dan Jones: Gov. Herbert (R) leads Matheson (D) by 10
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: UT-Dan Jones: Gov. Herbert (R) leads Matheson (D) by 10  (Read 1662 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 19, 2011, 02:23:18 AM »



# Herbert should be very happy that Utah is more than 2-1 Republican over Democrat. Jones found that while Herbert beats Matheson 70-21 percent among Republicans, Matheson wins among Democrats 84-12 percent and among the critical independent voters 47-42 percent.

# Matheson, a moderate-to-conservative Democrat, wins in Salt Lake County – the eastside of which is in his 2nd District -- but loses to Herbert in all other areas of the state.

# Most Republicans are Mormons, and Herbert wins in the LDS vote 59-31 percent. Matheson wins among voters who said they belong to some other religion, or have no religion.

# Finally, just how tough the 2nd District is for Democrats is found in this: Even though Matheson has won his U.S. House seat fairly comfortably when up against less-well-known GOP opponents, in a match-up with Herbert in the governor’s race, 2nd District voters picked Herbert over their own congressman, 46-41 percent.

http://utahpolicy.com/featured_article/herbert-would-best-matheson-2012
Logged
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,803
Spain


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -9.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2011, 10:29:52 AM »

OK, so there could be a close race in Utah.. I didn't think it could happen there for the next 100 years... but at first, let's see if matherson wants to run for something else in utah.
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,135
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2011, 01:16:46 PM »

     Matheson's pretty comfortable in his House seat. He'd be foolish to give it up for a longshot at taking down Herbert. Trailing by 10% this far out isn't horrible...for a little-known challenger. Thing is, Matheson is already pretty well-known, so making up that deficit would be quite a challenge for him.
Logged
Capitan Zapp Brannigan
Addicted to Politics
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,088


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2011, 02:19:54 PM »

     Matheson's pretty comfortable in his House seat. He'd be foolish to give it up for a longshot at taking down Herbert. Trailing by 10% this far out isn't horrible...for a little-known challenger. Thing is, Matheson is already pretty well-known, so making up that deficit would be quite a challenge for him.
Agreed. While he is probably the only Democrat that could get low 40s I doubt he could actually win in a 2 person race.
Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2011, 07:35:33 PM »

     Matheson's pretty comfortable in his House seat. He'd be foolish to give it up for a longshot at taking down Herbert. Trailing by 10% this far out isn't horrible...for a little-known challenger. Thing is, Matheson is already pretty well-known, so making up that deficit would be quite a challenge for him.
Agreed. While he is probably the only Democrat that could get low 40s I doubt he could actually win in a 2 person race.

And it's not like he'd be able to actually DO much as governor.  Utah Republicans gerrymandered their seats well enough to hold like 75% in both houses, so they could easily override his veto if they wanted to.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2011, 07:57:54 PM »

     Matheson's pretty comfortable in his House seat. He'd be foolish to give it up for a longshot at taking down Herbert. Trailing by 10% this far out isn't horrible...for a little-known challenger. Thing is, Matheson is already pretty well-known, so making up that deficit would be quite a challenge for him.

In his house seat as it is currently crafted, you mean? Wink
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,135
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2011, 06:11:35 PM »

     Matheson's pretty comfortable in his House seat. He'd be foolish to give it up for a longshot at taking down Herbert. Trailing by 10% this far out isn't horrible...for a little-known challenger. Thing is, Matheson is already pretty well-known, so making up that deficit would be quite a challenge for him.

In his house seat as it is currently crafted, you mean? Wink

     Of course they'll probably try to get rid of him again, but I find it unlikely that they could give him a raw enough deal that he would actually be better off attempting an uphill battle against the incumbent Governor.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2011, 08:18:15 PM »

Well if the Utah GOP decides to destroy his seat somehow, I guess he could make a hail-marry run for the governor's office.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.029 seconds with 14 queries.