US House Redistricting: Arizona

[they don't love you like i love you]

That's still pretty hilarious if they didn't bother to update it by the time of passage.

[krazen1211]

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http:%2F%2Fwww.azredistricting.org%2Fmaps%2Fpubmaps%2F100911%2FLeg-Merge_as_of_100911.kmz&hl=en&sll=34.168218,-111.930907&sspn=12.693328,26.784668&vpsrc=0&t=h&z=7

They reworked some parts of that. http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/Tentative-Final-Maps/Legislative/maps/Tentative%20Final%20Legislative%20Map%20-%20Statewide.jpg

(add " - poster size" at the end of the address for a 140 million pixel version that may crash your computer)

I count 13 utterly safe GOP, 3 usually safe GOP (at least for now - the one in NE Phoenix might get competitive towards the decade's end), 3 tossups two of which tilt R, one D (and the tilt R in Pinal might be safe by decade's end), 2 usually safe Dem, 9 utterly safe Dem seats. After looking at their demographic and competitiveness charts.

As it stands, the Democrats won all the 'competitive' districts (basically 8, 9, 10, 26)

A lawsuit is being filed alleging Georgia style malapportionment.



Here are the population totals.

7   203,026
4   204,143
27   204,195
3   204,613
2   204,615
24   206,659
19   207,088
30   207,763
8   208,422
29   211,067
10   211,073
13   211,701
9   213,224
11   213,377
23   213,451
26   213,659
6   214,244
15   214,941
22   215,912
21   216,242
1   216,451
14   217,693
20   218,167
18   218,677
28   218,713
5   219,040
16   220,157
25   220,795
17   221,174
12   221,735


That said, the top 14 (and 14 of the top 15) overpopulated districts are Republican held. The bottom 10 (and 11 of the bottom 12) districts are Democratic held. There is only 1 GOP district with negative deviation.

[jimrtex]

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http:%2F%2Fwww.azredistricting.org%2Fmaps%2Fpubmaps%2F100911%2FLeg-Merge_as_of_100911.kmz&hl=en&sll=34.168218,-111.930907&sspn=12.693328,26.784668&vpsrc=0&t=h&z=7

They reworked some parts of that. http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/Tentative-Final-Maps/Legislative/maps/Tentative%20Final%20Legislative%20Map%20-%20Statewide.jpg

(add " - poster size" at the end of the address for a 140 million pixel version that may crash your computer)

I count 13 utterly safe GOP, 3 usually safe GOP (at least for now - the one in NE Phoenix might get competitive towards the decade's end), 3 tossups two of which tilt R, one D (and the tilt R in Pinal might be safe by decade's end), 2 usually safe Dem, 9 utterly safe Dem seats. After looking at their demographic and competitiveness charts.

As it stands, the Democrats won all the 'competitive' districts (basically 8, 9, 10, 26)

A lawsuit is being filed alleging Georgia style malapportionment.



Here are the population totals.

7   203,026
4   204,143
27   204,195
3   204,613
2   204,615
24   206,659
19   207,088
30   207,763
8   208,422
29   211,067
10   211,073
13   211,701
9   213,224
11   213,377
23   213,451
26   213,659
6   214,244
15   214,941
22   215,912
21   216,242
1   216,451
14   217,693
20   218,167
18   218,677
28   218,713
5   219,040
16   220,157
25   220,795
17   221,174
12   221,735

That said, the top 14 (and 14 of the top 15) overpopulated districts are Republican held. The bottom 10 (and 11 of the bottom 12) districts are Democratic held. There is only 1 GOP district with negative deviation.

There is a 0.804 correlation between district population, and percentage of non-Hispanic whites.

[krazen1211]

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http:%2F%2Fwww.azredistricting.org%2Fmaps%2Fpubmaps%2F100911%2FLeg-Merge_as_of_100911.kmz&hl=en&sll=34.168218,-111.930907&sspn=12.693328,26.784668&vpsrc=0&t=h&z=7

They reworked some parts of that. http://www.azredistricting.org/Maps/Tentative-Final-Maps/Legislative/maps/Tentative%20Final%20Legislative%20Map%20-%20Statewide.jpg

(add " - poster size" at the end of the address for a 140 million pixel version that may crash your computer)

I count 13 utterly safe GOP, 3 usually safe GOP (at least for now - the one in NE Phoenix might get competitive towards the decade's end), 3 tossups two of which tilt R, one D (and the tilt R in Pinal might be safe by decade's end), 2 usually safe Dem, 9 utterly safe Dem seats. After looking at their demographic and competitiveness charts.

As it stands, the Democrats won all the 'competitive' districts (basically 8, 9, 10, 26)

A lawsuit is being filed alleging Georgia style malapportionment.



Here are the population totals.

7   203,026
4   204,143
27   204,195
3   204,613
2   204,615
24   206,659
19   207,088
30   207,763
8   208,422
29   211,067
10   211,073
13   211,701
9   213,224
11   213,377
23   213,451
26   213,659
6   214,244
15   214,941
22   215,912
21   216,242
1   216,451
14   217,693
20   218,167
18   218,677
28   218,713
5   219,040
16   220,157
25   220,795
17   221,174
12   221,735


That said, the top 14 (and 14 of the top 15) overpopulated districts are Republican held. The bottom 10 (and 11 of the bottom 12) districts are Democratic held. There is only 1 GOP district with negative deviation.

This lawsuit has been either refiled or something has been added to it. Given that the alleged defense for Mathis's malapportionment  was Section V, and Section V no longer applies, it is no longer a valid defense.



Much like Congressional seats, the designated 'competitive' districts were all won by 1 party.


The designated 'competitive' districts are, at least with Index 5:

8
9
10
26
4

[jimrtex]

This lawsuit has been either refiled or something has been added to it. Given that the alleged defense for Mathis's malapportionment  was Section V, and Section V no longer applies, it is no longer a valid defense.

There are three lawsuits.

'Leach' is in state court alleging that the redistricting commission didn't follow the procedure set out in the constitution.  The agenda for a July 22, 2013 commission meeting had an item to discuss a discovery request from the plaintiffs, with executive session scheduled.

'Arizona State Legislature' is in federal court challenging the use of the initiative process to define the redistricting process for congressional districts, in violation of the US Constitution.  On May 29, 2013, the plaintiffs kicked the judges reminding them that they hadn't responded in over 180 days.

'Harris' is in federal court challenging a partisan malapportionment of the state legislature.  Trial was held in March.  On July 19, the plaintiffs filed a supplemental brief pointing out that Section V of the the VRA is no longer applicable.  The redistricting commission was using the pretext that Section V required malapportionment.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Sorry for the bump but this is a really weird fun fact worth sharing;

The new AZ-01 gave Biden the greatest total votes in the state, following by AZ-06, despite both being virtually dead ties between Biden and Trump. Even AZ-05 and AZ-08 both gave him higher vote shares than BIDEN + 51 AZ-03.

This shows just how extreme the turnout dynamics can be in the state.