US House Redistricting: Arizona

[Miles]

What would be the best option for Ann Kirkpatrick? AZ-05 on the second map? (though she wouldn't live there)

[Miles]

A 2-7 or 3-6 is what we should shoot for. Nothing less.

[Miles]

"After months of administrative drudgery and political tumult the five-person panel charged with redrawing Arizona’s political districts released its first set of working maps Saturday. The initial “grid” maps only meet two of the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission’s six constitutionally mandated criteria - equal population and contiguity. From there, significant adjustments will be made..."

http://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2011/08/13/redistricting-commission-unveils-first-set-of-maps/

[Miles]

This looks like the final map. The website said that this was the final map the commission submitted yesterday.

[Miles]

That ridiculous pseudocarve of Cochise ended. Positive. And then a huge clockwise shift of small patches as a result... including Schweikert's residence, now outside the large R sink (and in the NE Maricopa R district with Quayle). And the official excuse for that R sink waived by breaching the Maricopa-Pinal line there after all.

And CD1 is still in Pima where it does not belong.
Florence does certainly belong in CD1 though.

Their justification for putting CD1 in Pima was that it allowed them to keep Cochise whole.

[Miles]

So how much has Gosar been weakened in AZ-01.  It looks to be the 3rd most Dem-leaning district in the state now?

I'd say its a tossup, maybe even favoring Kirkpatrick.

The old AZ-01 was 44% Obama. I drew the new AZ-01 and got Obama up to 47.9% and had McCain at 50.9%, down from 54%.

Maybe that 4-point swing in Obama's favor could have saved Kirkpatrick in 2010; in any case, she'll be running in a more friendly district during a less hostile year.

[Miles]

Gosar is switching to the 4th.

Good news for Kirkpatrick, since she won't be facing an incumbent.

[Miles]

How come they didn't want to segregate the Navajo and Hopi any more?  Did they resolve their differences, or did the mapmakers just decide to stop caring about their squabbles?

I heard they put their differences aside, at least concerning redistricting.