US House Redistricting: Arizona

[freepcrusher]

I've always wanted to do this map. Problem is that Gardow hasn't updated the population. But if I were to redraw it, here's what I might do:

A district that takes in the mexican neighborhoods of Chandler and Mesa, all of Tempe, all of Guadalupe, Ahwuhtookee, and South Phoenix.

Then I might make a district that takes in all of CD 4 north of the salt river, the Maricopa portion of CD 7, the pinal portion of CD 7, and maybe some of La Paz and Yuma Counties.

I would then make District 7 entirely within Pima County and basically take in some blue precincts from CD 8

[freepcrusher]

one thing I find is that it is a shame that Flagstaff and Tempe don't have dem representatives.

One idea I had was to make a district of the following: Coconino County, Navajo County, Apache County, Greenlee County, Graham County, Cochise County, Santa Cruz County and all the 80% Hispanic Precincts in Pima County.

The other district I had in mind was one that takes in all the Mexican precincts from Chandler and Mesa, all of Tempe and Guadalupe, all of South Phoenix and Ahwatukee, and some of the area by Sky Harbor Airport. This district would be similar to the old AZ 1.

[freepcrusher]

democrats should demand a safe central phoenix seat for Pastor and a moderately Tucson district for Grijalva. Anything else probably gets you in trouble with the DOJ. A 2-7 or 3-6 is what we should shoot for. Nothing less.

[freepcrusher]

the northeast and northwest district looks like the 3rd and 4th districts of the 70s and 80s

[freepcrusher]

A realistic Republican (near-)best case. Also my most grid-based map yet. Favored in 7 of the districts, though several of them are marginal enough that 6-3 may be the likelier outcome on balance.
Numbers follow the grid, for once, as I guess they will.

1 63.7% White, 55.4% McCain. Division of Tucson proper is exactly as at current, btw, but gets rural territory instead of the marginal northern suburbs.
2 69.0% White, 57.4% McCain. Not going to be popular with anybody, but something like it is in the amended grid for now.
3 59.2% Hispanic (53.5% VAP), 60.4% Obama. The only Dem voters Grijalva loses are in Tolleson/West End, and they go to Pastor. Grab of Eloy (the only area added compared to current) maybe doesn't happen.
4 64.3% White, 17.6% Native, 54.5% McCain. There is a certain logic to assuming that the current 4th is the least metro district, so it will be the non metro district. Yuma split and requirement to not split Navajo pretty much defined the boundary (esp. the complete withdrawal from Maricopa).
5 73.2% White, 54.0% McCain. Pretty ugly. You could split Mesa instead of Chandler, don't think it matters much. Paradise Valley grab and Northern reach around are naked R gerries, of course - "justified" by not splitting Central Phoenix three ways.
6 66.9% White, 60.2% McCain. Not much to see here. Boundary with 2nd could be drawn a number of different ways.
7 65.8% Hispanic, (59.6% VAP), 66.2% Obama. Follows the current 4th quite faithfully but does take Tolleson and drop some Whiteleaning, Demleaning Central Phoenix blocs.
8  66.2% White, 59.4% McCain
9 68.0% White, 54.8% McCain. So I found a way to broadly preserve the current 3rd.

if you see my 1980s map thread. You will see that the new 3rd looks almost exactly like the old 2nd district back then. The only difference is that most of the phoenix precincts have been removed.