Things heating up in the Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire')

[dead0man]

link[quote]The alliance of opposition parties that endorsed Alassane Ouattara’s candidacy called for mass protests on Tuesday to take over state television and government buildings.

Mr Alphonse Djédjé Mady, a spokesperson of the coalition called on “all the people of Côte d'Ivoire to accompany massively the government” to install Ouattara’s new [choice of] CEO of state television on Thursday. The group also said they will march on government buildings on Friday “to install the legitimate and legal authorities”.

The move follows a statement of opposition Prime Minister Soro Guillaume on Monday when he announced that his cabinet would bring to their offices “the new heads of national television” and take over the official Prime Minister's office.

Mr Alassane Ouattara the internationally recognised winner of Côte d'Ivoire’s presidential election has set up his headquarters at a luxury hotel in Abidjan under the protection of UN peacekeepers and former rebels.

The official buildings which are under control of incumbent leader Laurent Gbagbo are secured by hundreds of heavily armed soldiers. Mr Gbagbo is still having the support of the army.
Possible clash between the two camps on Thursday and Friday raises fears of bloodshed.

Several people were killed in slightly similar situation in October 2000 when military ruler of the country General Robert Guéi proclaimed himself the president in disputed elections. Gen Guéi was later deposed in a popular uprising led by Mr Gbagbo who was in opposition by that time.

On Tuesday afternoon, security forces loyal to Mr Gbagbo fired tear gas on thousands of opposition supporters in the central city of Tiébissou. According to an organiser of the gathering Béma Fofana they wanted “to celebrate the victory” of Ouattara “peacefully”. The supporters came from different cities of the northern part of the country held by the rebels. Several people were injured and some of Ouattara’s supporters were arrested, Béma Fofana added.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fianlly someone made a thread about it, it was time.

Not as if there were so much to say, besides "sigh".

[Hash]

Fianlly someone made a thread about it, it was time.

Not as if there were so much to say, besides "sigh".

Ahem grrrrrrrr

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129024.0

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

UN shouldn't have monitored that, and the foreign powers should have just shut up, it makes things worse. Or if UN monitors one country democratically, it has to do the same for every countries.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And here it goes...

According to France24, last night there has been some fire between a UN patrol and some 'men in arms', opened by the 'men in arms'.

A few mins ago, Gbago's representation officially published a statement asking for the departure of UN and French forces.

Popular support in street for Ouattara has been weaker than expected, during these last days we only had 'international community', and especially UN, and especially France, and especially Sarkozy going all over against Gbagbo, Sarkozy speaking more and more toughly and stating an ultimatum before sanctions.

So what now? The logical continuation of all of this? Since Ouattara has nothing but an hostel room this will turn into a war between Ivorian army and UN/France if they want to stay in line with their tough statements? UN/France troops deciding to stay thinking it's their full right and that anyhow they have the majority of the population with them and don't fear to engage in a war with Ivorian troops? Till they make Gabgbo out? And that would be the 1st UN ingerence with the help of the former colonial power? And a big part of the Ivorian population would accept it and wouldn't revolt? Yeah, why not continuing the logic of ingerence and double standards nannying engaged since the beginning there and that only made things worse for everybody...

Or, more likely maybe, the UN will do as each time, just shut up when there is force, and then, them, and all 'international community', and Sarkozy, who already looked extremely biased,  will look totally ridiculous, and Gbagbo could continue his reign with maybe an aura of '2nd independence of Côte d'Ivoire, for a guy who fought the 'father of the 1st independence' that would be such a victory, till that one day, maybe, these people can organize something politically there without being policed by anybody but themselves, and then if there are some troubles, it would avoid some to use some exterior factors to make still more troubles or to take over...

Or if an organization is about to monitor democracy and organize it, may it does that for all its members and clearly establish its will of being an organization that organizes democracy for its members, and it would them make legitimate in their claims. But then it would take UN to a total other level and maybe they would have far less members, but UN would have to make some choices on what it want to be in order to one day, no matter what it want to be, being politically solid and efficient on something...

Whatever, anyhow, today, in any case, unless some subtleties can appear latter in this conflict that can tone it down, then the opposite of what happened so far from all parts, beyond the fail of everybody else, eventual frauds from any part, intern leaders, foreign powers, it would be one more fail for the UN...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fianlly someone made a thread about it, it was time.

Not as if there were so much to say, besides "sigh".

Ahem grrrrrrrr

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=129024.0

Well, yours was about elections themselves. This one is about their consequences.

[dead0man]

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[Antonio the Sixth]

I know that's complicated, that we must respect sovereignty, etc, etc... and all the bullsh*t, but why can't the UN just oust the damn old sore loser and seat the legitimately elected president once for all ?

Of course because that would be "colonialism"... LOL

[ag]

I know that's complicated, that we must respect sovereignty, etc, etc... and all the bullsh*t, but why can't the UN just oust the damn old sore loser and seat the legitimately elected president once for all ?

Of course because that would be "colonialism"... LOL

UN can't do it for a very simple reason: UN doesn't have an army. It would have to be done by the member states, and, it seems, it will be done by the member states, on request from the legitimate internationally recongnized government. However, somebody would have to volunteer, commit resources, etc. Obviously, it takes time to plan, etc. Also, one has to take into account that fact, that in a large chunk of the country, including Abidjan, this is going to be extremely unpopular (at its core, this is a tribal conflict). So, unless things are carefully prepared and managed, there is a risk that the operation would disintegrate into a civil war. Hence, the current caution.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So far, it seems headed to a civil war anyways...

[ag]

So far, it seems headed to a civil war anyways...

So, which country you are suggesting should be so selfless to take part in a civil war that has nothing to do w/ its own interests? If anything, it's remarkable, how forceful the international community has been, which gives hope the usurper is going to be ousted. Compare this w/ what happened, say, in Iran or Belarus recently.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gbagbo has apparently expelled the British and Canadian ambassadors.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So far, it seems headed to a civil war anyways...

So, which country you are suggesting should be so selfless to take part in a civil war that has nothing to do w/ its own interests? If anything, it's remarkable, how forceful the international community has been, which gives hope the usurper is going to be ousted. Compare this w/ what happened, say, in Iran or Belarus recently.

There is one big difference between Ivory Coast and Iran or Belarus : that is, power. The cowardice of diplomats grows exponentially with the military/diplomatic/economic power of the country they have to deal with. Iran is a major regional force, could soon have nuclear weapons and supports islamist movements throughout the Middle East. Belarus has the support of Russia, a nuclear power and key provider of oil and gas. So they are free to do whatever they want. Ivory Coast is also (so far) more or less free to do whatever it wants, but the reason some people have the courage to stand against the most blatant offenses to democracy is merely because it's a powerless country.

Basically, the international community works like a jungle. You are strong, everybody respects you. You are weak, people treat you as they wish.

[Hash]

Gbagbo has apparently expelled the British and Canadian ambassadors.

Canadian? Our useless government actually cares about this?

(It's hard to know, because according to the CBC, there is nothing known as "Africa")

Belarus has the support of Russia

Not anymore, actually. But, yeah, the rest is true and overall to the elites Lukashenko is not a very offensive guy.

It is worth noting that Ouattara is a former IMF guy, so that might have a bit to do with the elite's unusual concern for events in Africa.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I know that's complicated, that we must respect sovereignty, etc, etc... and all the bullsh*t, but why can't the UN just oust the damn old sore loser and seat the legitimately elected president once for all ?

Of course because that would be "colonialism"... LOL

Or because UN hasn't the slightest legitimacy to do that? Because they are just there as observers? Because the mandate of its army is only to protect civilians?

If UN is a tool to enforce to democracy I'm waiting for UN soldiers to invade China. I'm also waiting for UN observers by all its members, like France, UK, USA (maybe could have been useful in Florida in 2000 there, and maybe UN soldiers should have open a war against Bush after the Supreme Court of USA said its judgment...), or also in North Korea, Burma, etc...

And yeah, how is is supposed to react a large part of the population to an out of nowhere in term of Right aggression? The institutions of the country have spoken, all the rest are only exterior actors with a role of observers, too bad the official institutions of the country haven't chosen the 'fancy guy' (yes, maybe the noise would be slightly different if that's 'fancy one' who wins, and 'less fancy one' who protests), but that's the way it is. If you want a force to impose democracy somewhere, then make it up, and good luck, and if UN wanna be that one, then it should clearly say it, but then we would enter in a totally different universe.

And well, quite easy to call for war when the only blood you will have, and the only bullets you will hear, and the only destroyed buildings you will see will be into your TV.

Anyhow, most important, and perhaps decisive, thing is money. All international financial institutions have given legitimacy to Ouattara to receive international money, which will deprive Gbagbo of this money to pay functionaries of the country, and overall to pay soldiers, which is still more important when you know that according to observations about 60% of soldiers voted Ouattara (vote amongst soldiers is clear since it is made into military camps), only big guys of the army are rather strong support of Gbagbo, but even amongst them, some analysts say they could fear and international court in case violence was used, and then leave Gbagbo, that one would only have a rather small hard core of the military ready to fight big for him. Still about money, I heard that more and more some people tried to open cocoa, very big export for Ivory Coast, routes through the north of country toward Burkina Faso, with the help of the northern rebel forces, instead of Abidjan, and that it could be a loss of money for Gbagbo govt, and maybe it could also be more for rebel forces. Gbagbo amounted a lot of money, but cut from the international one, it could be hard to maintain a favorable to him economical situation during a long time.

Other important thing, Mr Charles Blé Goudé. You might use force and win, by fighting army, or by the major part of it abandoning Gbagbo, and you might make fall Gbabgo and oust him. But you'll still have Charles Blé Goudé, able to spread crazy fire amongst young crowds, and maybe able to embody a crazy rebel leader not fearing to lead civil wars in a Sierra Leone/Congo fashion, by emphasizing nationalism and resistance toward foreign powers. And the French military knows how those young crowds can be frightening, to the point to open fire on them on several different events in 2004 to protect themselves and some French military buildings from some hostile march of the population.

So much things that maybe should make everybody think twice before using a tough, sometimes illegitimate, language about what's happening there, and which makes calls to the use of the force rather pointless, beyond being baseless, and overall certainly quite irresponsible. So far it seems that it could be ruled with the time, Gbagbo losing support of population and of the army because of economical isolation, the 'fancy guy' appearing like a solution to rule the crisis for a major part of the population. Though in any case, Gbagbos(Laurent and Simone)'s part would be hard to make fall, and what a guy like Charles Blé Goudé could embody, could do, and could become, shouldn't be underestimated.

Côte d'Ivoire doesn't need useless wood to feed its fire.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Now things could really begin to heat up, yesterday while everyone was focusing on the hot interesting things happening in Tunisia, rhetoric became tougher in Côte d'Ivoire. Outtara officially asked for force now, and his 'Prime Minister' did the same.

Fights begin to grow again in some districts of Abidjan and UN soldiers are just unable to protect civilians apparently, then more than making tensions they can't even fulfill their mandate, a report yesterday showed that when they fall on a roadblock from Gbagbo forces which doesn't want to let them pass they just don't insist, since they haven't authority to do that (I wonder if UN soldiers have one day been useful somewhere? except maybe perhaps making fancy mixes of nations of soldiers, which in the same time makes problems of communication, awkward when you know that discipline and exactitude are important in military actions).

A mediation from the CEDEAO (ECOWAS), which is those who could use military force, has to come this Sunday.

If force is used, other thing to take into consideration is that, if Gbagbo is effectively ousted, what one of the wives of Laurent Gbagbo, Simone, could do could be very important. That woman seems to be a kind of die hard who would make look Thatcher a cute pussy, it would be a kind of feminine Stalin, and that kind of feminine Stalin is an hard core Evangelical too and uses a lot Evangelical networks, and in the same time isn't feared at all of provking uge violence (could make a good couple with Blé Goudé maybe), and if she has nothing to lose you could certainly count on her along with Blé Goudé to excite violence the most she could, and also, maybe, to try to excite the religious division of the country (to make it synthetic, Muslims in the north, which is rather pro-Ouattara, and Christians in the south which would be rather pro-Gbagbo), something which isn't present in the foreground so far, but she could play on that. Which is an element to look at, especially when you know that if CEDEAO military intervenes, according to analysts the biggest force in it would be the Nigerian military, and Nigeria being the country in which religious tensions between the Muslim north and the Christian south is actual apparently. And Nigeria also currently is in an electoral period. Really the use of force here could really have important consequences, without Côte d'Ivoire, and beyond this religious question it would anyways also have some importance beyond Côte d'Ivoire, it would be unheard of.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The last mediation is totally over. The day before yesterday Ouattara said in a French paper La Croix that a military operation was already planned, and yesterday the military council of CEDEAO gathered in Bamako said that they were ready to start a military operation too, they are waiting the green fire from the political office of CEDEAO.

In the last days, according to France24, the Mouvement des Jeunes Patriotes, the movement led by Blé Goudé also opened some 'recruitments', in which youngs and very youngs (sometimes 14) were seen, the reporter spoke about 1,500 persons recruited, that is beyond the civilian forces they could raise I guess.

Some people of the regular Gbagbo army said they could quit it and join Ouattara, but proportions are not known yet, and a big general of army with 50,000 men under his orders recently said he was still supporting Gbagbo. Anyhow according to observers there could be an hard core of at least 15,000-20,000 troops and special guards/forces that would defend Gbagbo.

Scenarios that could happen in the 1st place would be blocus of the country and special forces to extract Gabgbo. Nigeria would effectively be the one that would give the most forces and command the operations, other countries said they would give troops too.

In any case, it would quite tough, and has a big potential to be really nasty and to have heavy consequences, inside Côte d'Ivoire, and maybe outside of it.

Then it would be the solution of interference-military actions-civil war-national and possible international destabilization that has been chosen...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Nigeria asked the right to UN to use force a few days ago. But in the meantime seems they try all economical possibilities to make him fall before, cocoa being the big deal, Ouattara asked for the stop of all cocoa exports and said that those who didn't respect it would have sanctions (I guess he means 'when he'll be in power').

I wonder whether West African states would use force to appear as the good guys who can make apply 'international right' and who have enough power to do interference in their region by themselves, or if there is something beyond this, or maybe both...

It sometimes looked like a small regional Iraq 2003.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

They would certainly be aware that using force could become quite nasty there, and now it's AU which enters in the game again to try to find solutions. It created a commission of African head of states to propose definitive solutions for the outcome in Côte d'Ivoire. This commission has to give its definitive solutions in one month.