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  US House Redistricting: Oklahoma
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Author Topic: US House Redistricting: Oklahoma  (Read 14112 times)
Jbrase
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« on: January 27, 2011, 06:36:20 pm »
« edited: February 14, 2011, 07:29:33 am by muon2 »

I don't believe there is a thread for this yet.

Here is a change that would make Boren's seat much more competitive. He would almost certainly win near every county in his district so I cut it in half and extended both halves deeper into territory that might not vote reflexively for him.

 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2011, 06:58:29 pm »

The three counties he lost in 2010 (against a complete nobody) were Delaware, Ottawa, and Rogers. You took Rogers out of the district, might want to leave that in. Take out Nowata instead, it went for him 62-38. I'd also take out McIntosh and Okmulgee, they're near his home in Muskogee and also went 62-38 for him.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2011, 07:48:46 pm »

ok, kinda going on what Johnny Longtorso said, I have this map.

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2011, 09:26:42 pm »

Yeah, that looks more like it. I don't see why they won't at least take a shot at getting rid of Boren. There's no downside to it, since there's no chance of any of the other seats becoming competitive. And even the Little Dixie part of the state started sending Republicans to the legislature last year.
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Torie
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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2011, 12:41:32 am »

Yeah, that looks more like it. I don't see why they won't at least take a shot at getting rid of Boren. There's no downside to it, since there's no chance of any of the other seats becoming competitive. And even the Little Dixie part of the state started sending Republicans to the legislature last year.

Is there any reason for the GOP to get rid of Boren at all?  I mean, he helps to give a "bipartisan" coloration to legislation. When was the last time Boren crossed the GOP on something that really mattered? Gerrymandering is not all about party affiliation numbers. That would be just dumb.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2011, 12:57:04 am »

Seeing as Republicans want to protect their house majority, getting rid of Boren would be helpful to those plans. Wherever they can get rid of Democrats, they will do it.
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2011, 01:02:33 am »

Seeing as Republicans want to protect their house majority, getting rid of Boren would be helpful to those plans. Wherever they can get rid of Democrats, they will do it.

Well I can't argue much with conviction, against the existence of the dumb gene in that High School that has the same address as Capitol Hill - by coincidence - not.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2011, 09:21:21 am »

Yeah, there can be a certain value to protecting useful idiots.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2011, 10:58:10 pm »
« Edited: January 28, 2011, 11:41:15 pm by Kirk & Madsen 101 »

Yeah, that looks more like it. I don't see why they won't at least take a shot at getting rid of Boren. There's no downside to it, since there's no chance of any of the other seats becoming competitive. And even the Little Dixie part of the state started sending Republicans to the legislature last year.

Is there any reason for the GOP to get rid of Boren at all?  I mean, he helps to give a "bipartisan" coloration to legislation. When was the last time Boren crossed the GOP on something that really mattered? Gerrymandering is not all about party affiliation numbers. That would be just dumb.

Speaking as someone from Oklahoma (who lives right next to Dan Boren's district) he is literally a "Democrat in Name Only".  It would be pointless to get rid of Boren.  Hell, it would be pointless to keep him.  He is the definition of "worthless".
And if you really want to damage Dan Boren's chance at re-election instead of redistricting him to northeastern Oklahoma just simply redistrict him out of Little Dixie and into South Tulsa (which is VERY Republican).  The redistrict map that Jbrase brought up would add Okmulgee county to John Sullivan's district of OK-1 which is a bad idea (they are very Democratic by Oklahoma standards).  Instead move OK-2 west into South Tulsa County and move part of OK-1 northwest into parts of OK-3.  The result should be an all Republican House representation from Oklahoma.
I'll put up a map soon.

EDIT: Just realized I'm an ignorant moron on counties within my own state.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2011, 12:14:19 am »



Here we go.
As you can see OK-1 has been redistricted towards north central eastern Oklahoma and north Tulsa.  This would make it more Democratic than usual since North Tulsa has a high (for Oklahoma) percentage of blacks and hispanics and withdrawal of South Tulsa from OK-1 would lose the upper middle class white voter population that makes it solidly Republican.  However the addition of the aforementioned affluent area of South Tulsa with middle-upper income folks being well populated throughout along with the growing suburbs of Broken Arrow and the loss of the southern part of Little Dixie OK-2 goes from being solid Dem to lean Republican (I believe a little more than a third of the OK-2 constituency would be in South Tulsa under the new redistricting so yeah).  OK-3, which has always been known as the Western Oklahoma district remains solid Republican.  OK-4, which now has the southern part of "Little Dixie" included in it minus the Lawton area undergoes a significant Democratic shift though probably not enough to make it competitive against an established Republican incumbent like Tom Cole.  OK-5, which now extends from Oklahoma City to Okmulgee might make a little lean toward the Democrats though not near enough to make it competitive.
All told this map would make races a little more competitive in OK-1, OK-4, and OK-5 but would also make OK-2 a possible Republican bastion in the future.  So yeah that's my analysis.
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« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2011, 04:58:06 am »

I combined the earlier idea about drawing donut districts for the lols with Okusa's question about drawing an Obama district in OKC.
I haven't actually done the math on the yellow district, mind, and the app doesn't include partisan data for Oklahoma.

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Mexino Vote
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« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2011, 08:07:27 pm »
« Edited: February 14, 2011, 07:30:54 am by muon2 »

I combined the earlier idea about drawing donut districts for the lols with Okusa's question about drawing an Obama district in OKC.
I haven't actually done the math on the yellow district, mind, and the app doesn't include partisan data for Oklahoma.



Damn. I cant even tell which would be my district...Shocked
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2011, 07:23:07 pm »

has the idea ever been discussed of Oklahoma basically doing to Boren what Arizona did to Mo Udall 30 years ago. They basically were like this: we know you are safe in your district, so we'll make an uber safe district for you connecting the most democratic precincts of the two biggest cities to help the republicans elsewhere.

Under this map, the green district is Boren's district and is only 53 percent white.


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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2011, 08:32:51 pm »

Under that map, Boren would get primaried so fast his head would spin. His base is not urban whatsoever.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2011, 09:42:43 pm »

lol. Its almost like if 10 years ago, one was to draw a district for Ralph Hall (who at the time was one of the most conservative house democrats) that took his home in Rockwall County and attached it to all the 90% black precincts in Dallas.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2011, 09:58:03 pm »

Under that map, Boren would get primaried so fast his head would spin. His base is not urban whatsoever.

That would be the point, wouldn't it?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2011, 10:37:05 pm »

A less conservative Democrat would beat Boren in that district, it wouldn't be safe for him. Boren votes with Republicans enough where they wouldn't do this too him and it's not like they'd have a reason to do this other than spite, which they probably don't have toward Boren.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2011, 12:06:39 am »

Boren won't vote for Republican House leadership.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2011, 01:46:31 am »

Boren won't vote for Republican House leadership.

But if OK Republicans are to yield the fact that a single Democrat will be elected from Oklahoma regardless of the map, having this Democrat be the 8th most conservative member of the Democratic caucus is much more preferable to them than the Democrat being a standard progressive.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2011, 09:44:29 am »

I really don't see the point in drawing that district at all. Look, the logical thing to do is to keep all of eastern Oklahoma in the same district; Boren is a useful idiot, the district would not be impossible to win under current circumstances if he fell under a bus or something, and in any case it keeps things nice and safe elsewhere in the event of trouble at some point over the next decade.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #20 on: April 14, 2011, 06:10:26 pm »



The map passed by the House.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #21 on: April 14, 2011, 06:47:50 pm »

I guess they went the "no need to bother screwing DINO Boren over" route. That barely changes the map at all.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2011, 06:35:36 am »

Haha wow, look at that deviation.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2011, 08:01:35 am »

The Green lines are change on 2000, or what?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2011, 08:42:47 am »

The Green lines are change on 2000, or what?

Yes. Marshall County goes from the 4th to the 2nd, that little bit of Canadian goes from the 4th to the 3rd, the nub of Rogers goes from the 1st to the 2nd, and a tiny bit of Creek goes from the 1st to the 3rd. And it looks like they adjusted the 4th/5th border of Oklahoma County a bit.
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