MO-SUSA: McCaskill leads Graves by 4

[DrScholl]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d3a77b1b-f472-48e9-a58e-48d0d6b88785

McCaskill: 48
Graves: 44
Other/undecided: 9

[SvenssonRS]

And here comes the characteristic eternal tie until ridiculously close to election day.

[Franzl]

I'd say McCaskill has somewhat lower odds of winning than some might think.

[Napoleon]

I'd say McCaskill has somewhat lower odds of winning than some might think.

Higher than Carnahan, though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'd say McCaskill has somewhat lower odds of winning than some might think.

Higher than Carnahan, though.

Actually, going in, Carnahan's odds were much better.

[Brittain33]

I'd say McCaskill has somewhat lower odds of winning than some might think.

Higher than Carnahan, though.

Actually, going in, Carnahan's odds were much better.

That says more about the trajectory in national politics from Obama's inaugural->Election Day 2010 than anything about the candidates. I'm cautiously optimistic about McCaskill, who is a skilled politician who would have been a goner in 2010. Unless things get even worse for Dems, this poll means she has a realistic chance at reelection, if not a good one.

[Miles]

I agree with brittain33. Carnahan was leading at first, but she did worse as Obama's popularity declined.

The fact that McCaskill leads by 10 points with seniors is very impressive.

Given the size of the MO GOP bench, its pretty sad that they can't come up with a candidate who leads a Senator with mediocre approvals.

I say Talent's absence from this race tilts it in McCaskill's favor.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Don't count Claire out just yet. Like everyone's said, the polls will be basically tied until Election Day. It's Missouri. The more things get better for Obama and the Democrats and the more the Republicans talk about privatizing Medicare and Social Security (see Paul Ryan's Road Map for the Future, or whatever it's called) combined with the possibility of them nominating a dittohead like Palin or Bachmann, the better Claire's chances will get.

A lot of these Senate races are really gonna depend on who the Republicans nominate. If they do nominate a Palin or Bachmann *fingers crossed* I'm sure Democratic turnout will be just as high, if not higher, than it was in 2008. Higher turnout will help Claire, especially in the cities to outweigh the probably larger turnout of voters in the rural/cracker areas where the Republicans rack up the numbers.

But, conventional wisdom amongst most of the posters on here seem to be that these crazy ladies won't get the nomination, so I'll take their word, for now, but just wish that they're wrong

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

The best thing McCaskill has going for her is she's not afraid to fight. If she goes down at least we know that she won't go down easily or quietly. Kind of like Boxer and Reid in that way.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No one here is counting McCaskil out. On the contrary, we are pushing back against those who are "counting her in".

[Badger]

Graves getting 21% of the black vote? Good luck with that.....

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Graves getting 21% of the black vote? Good luck with that.....

Remember, the cross tabs are tiny so they have a high margin of error.

[Badger]

Graves getting 21% of the black vote? Good luck with that.....

Remember, the cross tabs are tiny so they have a high margin of error.

I realize that (and wondered how long it would take someone to say it---2 minutes 10 seconds, congratulations Yank. ), but the final poll results are still based on 21% of MO's 10% African-American vote going Republican. With Obama at the top of the ballot no less (and narrowly carrying MO ). I have no doubt the numbers are off with small cross tab sample sizes, but my point is that makes these numbers look a bit better for McCaskill.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Graves getting 21% of the black vote? Good luck with that.....

Remember, the cross tabs are tiny so they have a high margin of error.

I realize that (and wondered how long it would take someone to say it---2 minutes 10 seconds, congratulations Yank. ), but the final poll results are still based on 21% of MO's 10% African-American vote going Republican. With Obama at the top of the ballot no less (and narrowly carrying MO ). I have no doubt the numbers are off with small cross tab sample sizes, but my point is that makes these numbers look a bit better for McCaskill.

Not as much as you might think. And the overall sample is large enough to be reasonably accurate to the extent that is possible this far out.