Will Mubarak hang on?

[they don't love you like i love you]

I highly doubt it. I guess he too will soon be flying in the next week to Saudi Arabia or somewhere.

[J. J.]

I'm going to say yes, at least he will attempt to hang on.  He might end up hanging, but he'll try it.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

*sigh* If only the Greens managed to do this to Ahmadineijad...

[seanobr]

In my opinion, today's announcement confirmed what many of us already expected, which is that Mubarak will see the unrest through until the bitter end, vacating the country only as a last resort -- and even then overconfidence may get the better of him.  At the moment, his rule is at its lowest ebb; I believe his fate is wholly dependent on the subservience of the military.  Assuming they are willing to do whatever is required to pacify the uprisings, including resorting to violence, then I see him consolidating his authority and remaining in control, although possessed of a greater appreciation for how fragile his hold over the state is.  In this outcome, the scare of nearly being overthrown could necessitate the start of substantive reform; but he also might embrace the alternative, brutally retaliating against any expression of dissent and rigidly curtailing the media and internet in a desperate attempt to create an apathetic and dispirited populace to facilitate his son's succession.  If, however, we see evidence tomorrow of the military establishment becoming receptive to popular sentiment, permitting the turmoil to escalate rather than suppressing the movement, the autocracy is incontrovertibly in its death throes.

With the prevailing assumption being that he would reign until death, and a reputation for resilience and tenacity, if there is a way for him to endure the instability now buffeting his regime, I believe he will find it.  But first, he must have an opportunity to, and the military will determine that.

[Frodo]

*sigh* If only the Greens managed to do this to Ahmadineijad...

If they had a broader segment of the overall population in Iran (beyond the cities) as well as the willingness of the regular army to battle against and put down the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, they would have.  

Fact of the matter is that Ahmedinejad had enough political appeal in 2009 that he still would have won in a free and fair election -though the (unnecessary) suppression and vote-rigging against the opposition somewhat obscures that.   

[they don't love you like i love you]

Mubarak is one of 8 world leaders who have been in power my entire life. Would be interesting to see that reduced to 7: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_longest_ruling_non-royal_leaders

(He's also probably the best one of those 8, which says a lot about the rest of them.)

[dead0man]

Maybe he will hang around long enough to hang...litterly.....damn..let me try that again...

Maybe he can hang on long enough to hang from the end of a rope....no....

Maybe he can just hang....FROM THE END OF A ROPE!.....nah....

Maybe he can hang around like Saddam?...meh


you get the idea though

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mubarak trying to hang on to the bitter actually makes some sort of Islamic revolution more likely IMO.

He could organize the transition of power (to a caretaker government under ElBaradei?) in a orderly fashion or he can let everything end in chaos. It seems he prefers the latter. But maybe that's what he wants: to proof that he was right and needed to keep the Islamists in check. If he's successfully handing over power to a more democratic government, it means that his dictatorship was unneccessary from the start.

[phk]

Probably.

[opebo]

I sure hope so, and I think he will.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I highly doubt it. I guess he too will soon be flying in the next week to Saudi Arabia or somewhere.

"I'll appoint a new government" is a sign of ultimate desperation, a smell of blood in water.

He'll soon join Ben Ali, who said the same thing, lol.

[opebo]

I highly doubt it. I guess he too will soon be flying in the next week to Saudi Arabia or somewhere.

"I'll appoint a new government" is a sign of ultimate desperation, a smell of blood in water.

He'll soon join Ben Ali, who said the same thing, lol.

Its a funny thing that they just don't pull the trigger.  I think these fellows could learn a thing or two from the old master right here in Bangkok.

[Beet]

One wild card here is that I believe that Obama has to be thinking that if this thing is crushed and the US continues to give military aid to Egypt, the 'soft power' implications for the US are absolutely horrendous. Perhaps it is true that the faster Mubarak falls, the less likely the extremist Islamists gain an upper hand in the opposition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think he will, sadly.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I don't think he can at this point.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I don't think he can at this point.

[Lief 🗽]

I share dead0man's hopes that the only hanging on he does involves a noose. A firing squad is also acceptable.

[Beet]

Hospital says police shooting to kill

[seanobr]

I will actually go against the grain and reiterate my opinion from yesterday, which is that if the rate and pitch of unrest does not dramatically increase, he will survive, only because the longer he is able to consolidate his position, the more difficult it is to depose him.  I felt he would be at his most vulnerable today, when the unsatisfying announcement of the new cabinet and his intention to remain in place would resonate loudest, as deploying the military to retain order was a last, desperate throw.  The uprisings will require fragmentation within the military establishment to be successful, and that hasn't occurred -- yet.  The military will not turn against the regime on a whim; they require the inducement of perceiving the public's fury as having become insurmountable.  If we ever see evidence of it, the game is over.  Until that point, however, I do not believe there is any reason to be optimistic about the movement's potential to be successful.

[Eraserhead]

No clue but I imagine he'll be dead pretty soon either way. This kind of stress can't be healthy for an 82 year old.

[Frodo]

It appears that the Obama administration is beginning to conclude that the Mubarak regime's days are now numbered.

[J. J.]

It appears that the Obama administration is beginning to conclude that the Mubarak regime's days are now numbered.

Numbered is one thing; hanging on for the year, or the bulk of it, is another.

No overthrow, but a gradual change.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I think he's on his way out - in the next two months.

[Marty4Bayh]

this is a right time to bring a real democracy to egypt and united states should help, but obama doesn't have a guts to do it.

[opebo]

No clue but I imagine he'll be dead pretty soon either way. This kind of stress can't be healthy for an 82 year old.

I'll bet the old boy thrives on it.  He was probably sickly because things were getting boring.