GA-20/20 Insight Polling: Obama leads Palin, but trails Huck, Romney, Gingrich

[Tender Branson]

47% Obama
43% Palin

50% Romney
44% Obama

50% Huckabee
45% Obama

47% Gingrich
45% Obama

...

2008 vote:

50% McCain
42% Obama

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B_KEK8-LWmzhOGM5OTQzNDMtNjdjZC00OWZlLThlMTgtZDFjM2JjN2Q2OWM1&hl=en&pli=1

...

Map:

Obama vs. Huckabee

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

[exopolitician]

Obama shouldn't invest a lot of his time in Georgia in 2012, it's going to be a stubborn state for him unless Republicans honestly nominate Palin.

[King]

God, I'd love the nominee to be Palin just for the sheer hilarity of it.  South Carolina and Georgia against her?  Palin's Real America is getting smaller by the day.

That hypothetical would also lead to the first ever Dem sweep of the Atlantic coast line since 1912.  Making it perfectly reasonable to suggest it will happen again 2112.

[pbrower2a]

Obama shouldn't invest a lot of his time in Georgia in 2012, it's going to be a stubborn state for him unless Republicans honestly nominate Palin.

He won't need Georgia; it goes for him in a near-landslide.  If his re-election is nearly assured, then he will have as his secondary concern  protecting the Democratic majority in the Senate. Georgia has no Senate seat up for grabs.  He is more likely to end up stomping for the Democratic candidate for the open US Senate in Texas (a state that he is highly likely to lose) or Nevada (a state that he is nearly certain to win -- and anyone who thinks that John Ensign is electable in 2012 is severely deluded), and of course any incumbent Democratic Senator in trouble.

I don't think that he is vain enough to seek a landslide win at the expense of winning the House back or holding onto the Senate majority. Any landslide will be the result of the bungling of the GOP at large or its nominee in 2012 or the rapid implosion of the GOP.

Tea party threats to Richard Lugar in Indiana or Olympia Snowe in Maine could make things interesting.

...President Obama is getting predictable. Everyone knows his political weaknesses (most notably that he doesn't know how to campaign in a rural area or to low-information white people) and those are unlikely to  disappear in 2012. Winning much as in 2008 will be adequate and decisive for him.
 

[Niemeyerite]

OK; again, I expected Romney to be doing worse than huck and gingrich (gingrich is from georgia). surprising.

[pbrower2a]

OK; again, I expected Romney to be doing worse than huck and gingrich (gingrich is from georgia). surprising.

Favorite Son effect. Take a good look at the poll for South Dakota, where Senator John Thune, but not Huckabee or Romney (who would win by smaller margins) absolutely crushes Obama with about a 57-40 split of the vote.

John McCain won Texas in 2008 -- but with about 10% less of the vote than Dubya won with in 2000 or 2004.  Arizona, John McCain's home state, is going to be much closer n 2012 than in 2008. George McGovern found that his own state (South Dakota) was one of his best in 1972 -- in the only year in which the Democrats outperformed the average in a Presidential election since 1932. Look at how badly McGovern did in North Dakota in 1972.  In 1980, Jimmy Carter conspicuously won Georgia (56-41) over Ronald Reagan  in the only state in which he won a majority in an election in which he lost all but six states and DC. In 1984, Reagan won Georgia 60-37 against two Democratic nominees from places far from Georgia.

Sure, Obama did better than Kerry in Massachusetts between 2004 and 2008 -- but that is rare.

Gingrich would lose the state (look how he fares in South Carolina, a state with demographics similar to Georgia) if he had no connections to Georgia. That he would barely defeat Barack Obama in Georgia shows how weak a candidate he would be in the general election.

Explanation: almost every politician once successful knows how to appeal to the people in his own state and old habits don't die easily.   

[Lief 🗽]

Palin and Gingrich do worse than McCain in 2008, Romney and Huckabee do about as well, with an electorate that is a few points more Republican than in 2008.

[HAnnA MArin County]

God, I'd love the nominee to be Palin just for the sheer hilarity of it.  South Carolina and Georgia against her?  Palin's Real America is getting smaller by the day.

LMAO! So true.

[Liberalrocks]

She is behind now in the deep south too?....LMFAO...this disasterous ticket would not only be a gift to democrats but it would be pure humor. Georgia voted for Goldwater but it wont vote for Palin??? WTF...LOL Good stuff.

[Mjh]

She is behind now in the deep south too?....LMFAO...this disasterous ticket would not only be a gift to democrats but it would be pure humor. Georgia voted for Goldwater but it wont vote for Palin??? WTF...LOL Good stuff.

Well, Golwater was a far better candidate than Sarah Palin could possibly be.

But otherwise I agree it is quite funny.