SC-PPP: DeMint & Huckabee ahead
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  SC-PPP: DeMint & Huckabee ahead
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Author Topic: SC-PPP: DeMint & Huckabee ahead  (Read 1686 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 01, 2011, 01:46:49 PM »

With DeMint:

Jim DeMint...................................................... 24%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 20%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 17%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 12%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 10%
Ron Paul......................................................... 4%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 3%
Mitch Daniels .................................................. 2%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 8%

Without DeMint:

Mike Huckabee ............................................... 26%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 20%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 18%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 13%
Ron Paul......................................................... 7%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 4%
Mitch Daniels .................................................. 3%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 8%

PPP surveyed 559 South Carolina Republican primary voters from January 28th to 30th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_02011023.pdf
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2011, 01:49:03 PM »

Palin is stream rolling to that nomination!

The woman is trailing Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Give me a break already.
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California8429
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2011, 03:06:08 PM »

Very interesting that DeMint takes pretty even support from all the major candidates
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2011, 03:07:25 PM »

A strong showing for Romney in such a conservative state.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2011, 03:11:26 PM »

Palin is stream rolling to that nomination!

The woman is trailing Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Give me a break already.

Talk to Beet about it. I don't really know of anyone else on here who thinks she has a lock on the nomination if she runs.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2011, 03:59:07 PM »

Palin is stream rolling to that nomination!

The woman is trailing Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Give me a break already.

Only one (Huckabee or Palin) will run. Palin is the second choice of Huck voters, and vice versa. So if one of the two is taken out, the other wins the state.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2011, 04:06:22 PM »

Palin is stream rolling to that nomination!

The woman is trailing Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Give me a break already.

Only one (Huckabee or Palin) will run. Palin is the second choice of Huck voters, and vice versa. So if one of the two is taken out, the other wins the state.

A bit of an oversimplification.  There's also a chance neither or both run.  Or only one does but DeMint also does and wins South Carolina.  Even if DeMint and Huckabee stay on the sidelines, if Palin didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire, and Romney won one or both and/or DeMint endorsed him, she'd probably be an underdog in the SC primary. 

Separate thought, the race would be interesting if say Thune or Pawlenty won IA, Romney won NH and DeMint won SC and you end up with the big early 3 states all dismissible, or at least qualifiable, as backyard or home state wins.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2011, 06:39:17 PM »

Palin is stream rolling to that nomination!

The woman is trailing Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Give me a break already.

Only one (Huckabee or Palin) will run. Palin is the second choice of Huck voters, and vice versa. So if one of the two is taken out, the other wins the state.

A bit of an oversimplification.  There's also a chance neither or both run.  Or only one does but DeMint also does and wins South Carolina.  Even if DeMint and Huckabee stay on the sidelines, if Palin didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire, and Romney won one or both and/or DeMint endorsed him, she'd probably be an underdog in the SC primary. 

Separate thought, the race would be interesting if say Thune or Pawlenty won IA, Romney won NH and DeMint won SC and you end up with the big early 3 states all dismissible, or at least qualifiable, as backyard or home state wins.

Hard to say how that would play out without knowing how expectations had been built up in advance.  For example, if Thune is trailing in the polls in Iowa until the last few weeks, and then surges into first place, I don't think his win would be dismissed as "only a backyard win".
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2011, 07:17:12 PM »

Palin is stream rolling to that nomination!

The woman is trailing Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Give me a break already.

Only one (Huckabee or Palin) will run. Palin is the second choice of Huck voters, and vice versa. So if one of the two is taken out, the other wins the state.

A bit of an oversimplification.  There's also a chance neither or both run.  Or only one does but DeMint also does and wins South Carolina.  Even if DeMint and Huckabee stay on the sidelines, if Palin didn't win either Iowa or New Hampshire, and Romney won one or both and/or DeMint endorsed him, she'd probably be an underdog in the SC primary. 

Separate thought, the race would be interesting if say Thune or Pawlenty won IA, Romney won NH and DeMint won SC and you end up with the big early 3 states all dismissible, or at least qualifiable, as backyard or home state wins.

Hard to say how that would play out without knowing how expectations had been built up in advance.  For example, if Thune is trailing in the polls in Iowa until the last few weeks, and then surges into first place, I don't think his win would be dismissed as "only a backyard win".


Yeah, that's true.  Actually, Thune, who according to a recent poll was still mostly unknown in Iowa, isn't quite comparable to Romney in NH or DeMint in SC.
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Franzl
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« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2011, 07:38:09 PM »

A strong showing for Romney in such a conservative state.

Romney's poor showing in the South doesn't have much to do with "conservatism".
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2011, 07:58:55 PM »

A strong showing for Romney in such a conservative state.

Romney's poor showing in the South doesn't have much to do with "conservatism".

Yea, Romney does well among both those that define themselves as "Conservative" and "Very Conservative".

Romney does well in places with large metropolitan areas (Atlanta in 2008, for instance) but those rural areas in the South are just dreadfull for him.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: February 02, 2011, 02:10:13 AM »

Map:




Huckabee -> Light Blue
Romney -> Red
Palin -> Pink
Gingrich -> Dark Blue
Pawlenty -> Green
Yellow -> DeMint
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: February 02, 2011, 02:58:36 AM »

Palin is stream rolling to that nomination!

The woman is trailing Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Give me a break already.

Talk to Beet about it. I don't really know of anyone else on here who thinks she has a lock on the nomination if she runs.

...

Ok, are you just joking around? I really don't know if you are or not. If you aren't, do you have BRTD on ignore or something?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: February 02, 2011, 06:05:07 AM »

Palin is stream rolling to that nomination!

The woman is trailing Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Give me a break already.

Talk to Beet about it. I don't really know of anyone else on here who thinks she has a lock on the nomination if she runs.

...

Ok, are you just joking around? I really don't know if you are or not. If you aren't, do you have BRTD on ignore or something?

No. I've never heard BRTD say anything like that. If he has, he's free to correct me.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: February 02, 2011, 08:06:33 AM »

I've never seen BRTD say that either.

There are others (like Whacker) who continue to say Palin is the favorite, despite what the polling says, but I don't think anyone goes as far as Beet does, in calling Palin the "de facto nominee".  Then again, I'm not sure Beet has called her that in the last couple of months......not since his Delaware prediction went bust.
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: February 02, 2011, 08:57:07 AM »

Is it me or that's still a pi$$-poor showing for DeMint in his home state?
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #16 on: February 02, 2011, 10:49:33 AM »

I also find interesting that DeMint votes don't go for specially for one candidate. imagine if palin, huckabee and demint run, what would happen if he (demint) wins SC??? who would drop out first?
 I think romney is praying for him to run. it would be him versus palin, huckabee and Demint.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2011, 11:59:34 AM »

Palin is stream rolling to that nomination!

The woman is trailing Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Give me a break already.

Talk to Beet about it. I don't really know of anyone else on here who thinks she has a lock on the nomination if she runs.

...

Ok, are you just joking around? I really don't know if you are or not. If you aren't, do you have BRTD on ignore or something?

No. I've never heard BRTD say anything like that. If he has, he's free to correct me.

BRTD posted a poll the other day saying she has at least an 80% chance at the nomination. He asked which was greater: Palin's odds at the nomination now or Hillary's odds in January of 2007. He and one other said the former. Literally everyone else - all 27 of them - said the latter.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131436.0

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #18 on: February 02, 2011, 05:27:06 PM »

I also find interesting that DeMint votes don't go for specially for one candidate. imagine if palin, huckabee and demint run, what would happen if he (demint) wins SC??? who would drop out first?
 I think romney is praying for him to run. it would be him versus palin, huckabee and Demint.

Yea Romney wants DeMint in the race, as well as Santorum.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: February 02, 2011, 07:13:56 PM »

Palin is stream rolling to that nomination!

The woman is trailing Mitt Romney in South Carolina. Give me a break already.

Talk to Beet about it. I don't really know of anyone else on here who thinks she has a lock on the nomination if she runs.

...

Ok, are you just joking around? I really don't know if you are or not. If you aren't, do you have BRTD on ignore or something?

No. I've never heard BRTD say anything like that. If he has, he's free to correct me.

BRTD posted a poll the other day saying she has at least an 80% chance at the nomination. He asked which was greater: Palin's odds at the nomination now or Hillary's odds in January of 2007. He and one other said the former. Literally everyone else - all 27 of them - said the latter.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131436.0



OK, I hadn't read that thread.
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