Catholics vs Protestants

[phk]

Are there any states where Catholics are more R than Protestants?

[Verily]

Probably New Hampshire. Possibly also Vermont and Rhode Island, and maybe even Massachusetts (unlikely but possible); probably not Connecticut or Maine. Also places where a large percentage of Protestants are black, like Maryland and DC.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The place to look, I think, would be a southern state where the blacks are basically all Protestant.

It seems to have only been asked in the 2008 exit poll among states with significant numbers of both (i.e. not the south) - among these, I would have guessed Wisconsin due to the funny German east-west thing, but not according to the exit poll.


(edit: just to be clear, I didn't see Verily's response, the red warning system in posting must have broken down).

[Verily]

The place to look, I think, would be a southern state where the blacks are basically all Protestant.

Problem with this is that Catholics in such places are almost always Democrats, too (cultural divide, and they're all in the cities), and black Protestants are outnumbered by white Protestants in most such places. Louisiana is the only place with rural white Catholics and a significant black population, but I think a lot of blacks in Louisiana are Catholic.

Maryland does not have rural white Catholics, but it does have liberal white Protestants alongside a large black population that together outnumber the rural white Protestants and are probably more Democratic than the Catholics (especially because a lot of the Catholics in the Baltimore area are fairly Republican).

[Brittain33]

Are there any states where Catholics are more R than Protestants?

New Jersey, New York?

[Verily]

Are there any states where Catholics are more R than Protestants?

New Jersey, New York?

Doubt it. There are a non-negligible number of Hispanics in both states.

[phk]

Are there any states where Catholics are more R than Protestants?

New Jersey, New York?

Doubt it. There are a non-negligible number of Hispanics in both states.

Florida.

Where Blacks = Protestant. Cubans = Catholic.

[Verily]

Are there any states where Catholics are more R than Protestants?

New Jersey, New York?

Doubt it. There are a non-negligible number of Hispanics in both states.

Florida.

Where Blacks = Protestant. Cubans = Catholic.

Yeah, but Haitians, Dominicans and Puerto Ricans = Catholic; white North Floridians (and conservative whites in Florida generally) = Protestant.

Obama won the Hispanic vote in Florida 57-42 but lost the white vote 42-56. A big chunk of Obama's white vote is Jewish, too.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I didn't think of this at first, but what about Hawaii? Presumably the Filipinos are by far the most Catholic community, and a fair number of Japanese-Hawaiians are protestant (e.g. Inouye).

[phk]

Akaka is Chinese-American and Native Hawaiian.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Akaka is Chinese-American and Native Hawaiian.

Oh yeah, sorry. Still, doesn't really affect the overall possibility.

[Person Man]

Akaka is Chinese-American and Native Hawaiian.

I thought he was Japanese.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We might be a possibility. According to the CNN 2008 exit poll, Obama did one point better among Protestants than Catholics, and the Senate race numbers were literally a complete tie (to an amazing level, Barkley even got the same percentage among both Protestants and Catholics!). Our most solid rural areas of course are heavily Protestant while most of the solid Republican rural areas are heavily Catholic, and there's lots of Catholics in the exurbs too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In regards to Hawaii: It might be true, but not for the reasons people are mentioning. Japanese Americans are mostly non-Christian to my knowledge (both Reps are Japanese American Buddhists for the record), Hawaii by some measures is as much as 9% Buddhist by the way. I think Native Hawaiians are largely Catholic, but many are Mormon or Protestant. But the most Democratic group in Hawaii is actually whites, who are of course mostly Protestant (though in Hawaii probably predominately mainline and largely non-practicing.)

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Hawaii is the only state where the majority of people aren't Christians.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hawaii is the only state where the majority of people aren't Christians.

The last Pew Religious Survey put it at 26% Evangelical Protestant, 18% Mainline Protestant and 22% Catholic, which is 66% Christian. Utah is the only majority non-Christian state.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Hawaii is the only state where the majority of people aren't Christians.

The last Pew Religious Survey put it at 26% Evangelical Protestant, 18% Mainline Protestant and 22% Catholic, which is 66% Christian. Utah is the only majority non-Christian state.

Mormons are Christians.

[bgwah]

I did a quick look through CNN's exit polls for some states. States where Catholics were more McCain highlighted in red:

Florida
Catholics: 50-49 Obama
Protestants: 55-43 McCain

Louisiana
Protestants: 60-38 McCain
Catholics: 70-27 McCain

New York
Protestants: 54-46 Obama
Catholics: 59-41 Obama

Vermont
Protestants: 58-40 Obama
Catholics: 63-37 Obama

New Hampshire
Protestants: 51-47 McCain
Catholics: 50-50

Connecticut
Protestants: 67-31 Obama
Catholics: 50-46 McCain

Rhode Island
Protestant: 53-45 Obama
Catholic: 60-38 Obama

Pennsylvania
Protestant: 50-49 Obama
Catholic: 52-48 McCain

New Jersey
Protestant: 52-46 Obama
Catholic: 55-45 McCain

Wisconsin
Protestant: 53-47 McCain
Catholic: 53-47 Obama

Minnesota
Protestant: 51-47 McCain
Catholic: 52-47 McCain

Illinois
Protestant: 57-42 Obama
Catholic: 53-47 Obama

Ohio
Protestant: 52-48 McCain
Catholic: 52-47 McCain

MD and MA don't have the info, but given MD's huge black population, I think it's likely another one.

[Verily]

Ummm... Wow, Connecticut. And apparently I was wrong about NJ. And apparently Louisiana blacks are not substantially Catholic after all.

On the other hand, there might sample size issues going on. And both groups tend to be polarized (Protestants containing evangelicals and blacks, Catholics containing conservative Italians/Irish and Hispanics), so sample size could create some real skew.

[nclib]

It may be worth checking white Protestants vs. white Catholics, as some states where Protestants are more Democratic than Catholics, is only a function of race.

bgwah, how do you get to CNN's 2008 exit polls? Their 2008 election board automatically redirects to election 2010.

I would expect Ohio to have a rather large gap in the other direction (Catholics more Dem) due to NE Ohio (and Toledo) being more Catholic as well as Democratic.

[bgwah]

It may be worth checking white Protestants vs. white Catholics, as some states where Protestants are more Democratic than Catholics, is only a function of race.

bgwah, how do you get to CNN's 2008 exit polls? Their 2008 election board automatically redirects to election 2010.

I would expect Ohio to have a rather large gap in the other direction (Catholics more Dem) due to NE Ohio (and Toledo) being more Catholic as well as Democratic.

I think it needs to have results/president on the address to stop it from re-directing. Try this link: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/

I agree that this reflects race a lot... Some states also have a white catholic vs. white protestant breakdown. The difference in CT is reduced a bit, but it still quite large overall even among whites, for example.

[nclib]

Of the states bgwah listed in red, when comparing white Protestants vs. white Catholics, in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Ohio, white Catholics are more Democratic, in Connecticut white Protestants are still considerably more Dem (perhaps a statistical fluke?), and in Illinois, Minnesota, and Louisiana the results among whites are either not listed or one point apart (likely within margin-of-error).

[bullmoose88]

Don't forget the presence of African Americans in PA/NJ potentially making the overall Protestant number more Democratic.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ummm... Wow, Connecticut.

Not really that surprising. Liberal New England WASPs and very few evangelicals vs. Staten Island-esque ethnics.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maryland does not have rural white Catholics

Uh, what?

but it does have liberal white Protestants alongside a large black population that together outnumber the rural white Protestants and are probably more Democratic than the Catholics (especially because a lot of the Catholics in the Baltimore area are fairly Republican).

For some reason the exit poll doesn't give numbers for Catholics despite almost 25% of the sample...but it does have 63% of Protestants for Obama, which is above the state average. I suppose that blacks are a large reason for that, although I have heard that many blacks in Maryland especially on the Eastern Shore are Catholic.